Hello everyone! I am Chen Jie
Buying a car is a happy thing, but if you don't grasp the timing of getting started and find that the price has been reduced just after buying it, it will be very bad. Therefore, in order to avoid this situation, we must have a general understanding of the market trend of the target model.
Today, at this point in time at the beginning of 2022, we will make a prediction for the future period of time, there will be a high probability of discounts on the market, or models with a high probability that the discount will continue to expand. I hope it will be helpful to everyone buy a car.
Toyota Syna
At the beginning of the listing, the price was increased at one time
Seeing this car, many friends must be very surprised. Toyota Sai Na can be called the most important new MPV last year, not only the popularity and topic degree have been hyped high enough, but also opened the price increase mode after the listing.
According to a network of price increase information, Sai Na linked the price increase to the time of pick-up, and the maximum price increase was 60,000 yuan.
Webcast pictures
However, Toyota, which has tried and tested to increase prices, lost its hand on Senna this time. Because all models that can increase the price must be very sought-after in the terminal market, and a car is difficult to find in order to have the capital to increase the price. However, since the launch of Xena, sales have been unsatisfactory.
Sales are pre-cooled
Far less than expected
In December, GAC Toyota announced that its wholesale sales were 2,791 units. Sai Na was once regarded as a strong opponent of GL8, so how much did GL8 sell in December? The answer is 14,022 vehicles. In this comparison, the sales volume of Xena is obviously difficult to say successful.
Moreover, the sales of the Buick GL8 are the retail sales released by the Association, and in the same retail list, the name of Xena is not seen in the top 15 models. That is to say, the retail sales of The Syna in December were lower than the 1493 units of the 15th place Odyssey.
In addition, according to a data on the amount of insurance in December, the number of licenses in Sai Na in December was only 935. Retail sales are much lower than wholesale volumes, indicating that many cars are pressed into the parking lot of 4S stores.
On the one hand, this situation can prove that the production capacity of Xena said by the sales of 4S stores is tight, so the statement that it needs to be increased in price and decoration is not very valid. On the other hand, it also indicates that the market for selling up prices and queuing up to pick up cars may have improved.
The markup has loosened
The offer may not be far off
In fact, although the Network is rumored to have a price increase, according to our visit, there are already some 4S stores that can book cars without a markup. However, the result of our inquiry was that although it was possible to order the car at the original price, the pick-up time was in December. We re-determined if it was December 2022 and the other person's answer was "yes". In another 4S store, the result we got was to add 30,000 decorations, and we could pick up the car as soon as April.
That is to say, at present, there is still some mark-up behavior in Sai Na, but it is also possible to book a car without a price increase, and the amount of price increase is not 60,000-70,000 yuan spread online. Moreover, the sales staff admitted that the increase in price now has been much lower than at the beginning of the listing.
Therefore, we estimate that the current sales volume of Isena is expected to be further reduced, and even in the near future, it is not impossible for the discount to appear. So friends who are optimistic about this car, if you are not in a hurry, you may wish to wait.
Volkswagen ID.3
The ID.4 offer is increased
Sales have picked up
Volkswagen's ID. series undertakes the important mission of Volkswagen's electrification transformation, and Volkswagen not only has high hopes for it, but also pours a lot of resources into it. However, the ID. series did not sell well at the beginning of the market. At that time, many media even used words like "fluttering street" to describe it.
Taking the Volkswagen ID.4 X as an example, the sales volume in March, April and May last year was 652, 922 and 847 respectively.
However, sales of the ID.4X have begun to pick up in recent months, stabilizing at around 4,000 units in both October and November. In December, the ID. family sold 13,787 units.
Volkswagen ID.4X sales trend (from Sohu Auto)
There are many reasons for this achievement, but the increase in the preferential margin of ID.4 X and ID.4 CROZZ is an important reason.
At present, the ID.4X cash discount in Beijing is 20,000, and there is still room for continued talks. In other regions, we understand that some 4S stores can even be discounted to 30,000-40,000, or even more.
ID.3 came on late
The offers are almost non-existent
Compared with ID.4, ID.3, which was just listed in October last year, is still very small, but ID.3 is no less important to the public than ID.4. From the perspective of positioning, ID.3 is a golf in the era of electrification for volkswagen.
Moreover, whether it is ID.4 or ID.3, it is an exploration model for Volkswagen's electrification transformation, and the success of these two cars is not only related to profits, but also to Volkswagen's electrification strategy. And without a certain amount of sales, it will certainly not achieve the expected effect.
Volkswagen will definitely find a way to push up the sales of ID.3, and the most direct way is of course to discount.
In addition, the pricing of ID.3 is actually not expensive, but the domestic cars of the same level are too capable of fighting. Taking BYD Dolphin as an example, although the 401km endurance is slightly shorter than the 430km of ID.3, the starting price is 50,000 or 60,000 lower, so compared with domestic opponents, ID.3 also has a relatively large price reduction space.
In fact, the overall product strength of ID.3 is still good, so if you approve of the ID.3 car, you may wish to wait a little longer, at least a discount of 10,000 or 20,000 can be expected.
Kia Jawa
Have the strength to challenge GL8
Last year was a big year for MPV, and the new hot MPV in addition to Xena also has Kia's Jawa.
To sum up simply, it can be said that Jiahua already has the strength to challenge the same level of overlord GL8 from all aspects of space, comfort, configuration, design, power and so on. And Jawa looks more at home than the GL8 and basically won't be mistaken for a driver.
The biggest shortcoming is the brand, and it is indeed difficult to support a model with a price of about 300,000 yuan with Kia's brand power.
There are basically no offers at the moment
Price cuts can be expected
At present, There are almost no discounts from Jiahua, we have inquired into several 4S stores, and the best result is a comprehensive discount of 10,000 yuan. The so-called comprehensive offers are mainly gifts and decorations, etc., of which the proportion of cash discounts is very small. However, most 4S stores currently have enough cars. This actually proves that Jawa's sales are relatively dismal.
According to the data on the amount of insurance, the sales volume of The Joyce in December was 2204 units. So how do you think about this sales? It can be said that it is this more than 2,000 sales that gives Jiahua the confidence that it is not preferential today, after all, for Kia, a car that sells for 300,000 yuan can also have more than 2,000 sales, which has been partially successful. You know, Kia's smart run only sold more than 4,000 vehicles in December.
Of course, this also has the consideration of protecting the brand. If there is a large discount soon after the listing, it will not only be worse for the Kia brand, but also a major blow to the image of Jawa.
However, these more than 2,000 vehicles are still far from the real hot sales, just mentioned that the Buick GL8 12 sales are more than 14,000 units.
Moreover, in Kia's current situation, the demand for sales is still very urgent. For other car companies, sales represent profits, but for Kia, sales may be the line of life and death.
Therefore, we predict that this year, Jiahua may open the floodgates of preferential treatment. Jiahua was listed in September last year, and it has been half a year in March this year, and there are basically no discounts in half a year, and the discounts are released after half a year, which is justified for the brand and for early car owners.
How much will it be discounted? To tell the truth, combined with the product strength, the price of 288,900-333,900 is actually not expensive, but Kia's brand power is there after all, so it is expected to be less than 20,000 or 30,000, and more than 30,000 or 40,000.
Veyron Pro
The product strength has increased tremendously
But the volume of sound and sales are dumb
The car was an important new replacement for Buick last year, but it didn't attract much attention or sales after it went on sale. But in fact, Veyron's car was once brilliant, once sold more than 10,000 a month for a long time, but later the whole series was equipped with a three-cylinder machine, and then it basically disappeared in the market.
But last September, the new Veyron Pro not only changed its design, but also brought a new 1.5T four-cylinder engine. Moreover, the parameters of this four-cylinder engine are very eye-catching, with a maximum of 184 horsepower and an acceleration of 7.7 seconds per 100 kilometers.
At that time, we gave the view that in terms of design and performance, Veyron Pro has taken over the positioning of the previous generation of Civic (Tenth Generation Civic) very well, and it is expected to become a sales star.
It is reasonable to say that the model has been replaced, and the biggest power shortcoming of the past has become a bright spot, and there should be a significant rebound in sales. In fact, the sales of Veyron Pro have indeed rebounded, but the sales of more than 6,000 in December can only be regarded as less than satisfactory.
In the style of Buick
There is also a lot of room for the Veyron Pro offer
Since the product power has been upgraded qualitatively, why is the sales not satisfactory? I think an important reason is that the offer has not been given in place. The Veyron Pro is priced at 12.99-15.89 million, which is not low. Because the positioning of Veyron Pro is actually A+ level, that is, it is half a level higher than Xuanyi and Langyi, and the benchmark Xuanyi and Langyi are actually Yinglang.
However, positioning is one thing, the price is another, at present, almost all models of Buick have greater discounts, the price of Yinglang terminal is only more than 70,000, and the price of the B-class car Regal terminal is only more than 140,000.
Therefore, based on the impression of Other Buick models, many consumers believe that the current offers of the Veyron Pro are far from being in place. At present, in Beijing, for example, the discount of the Veyron Pro is about 15,000, and the price of the most concerned sub-low-end model is about 125,000.
To be honest, judging by the product strength of Veyron Pro, today's price is also available for purchase. However, this price is still some distance from the offers that everyone expects, which is why its sales are tepid.
I conservatively believe that if the Veyron Pro can be discounted by another 10,000-15,000, that is, if the sub-low model can be sold for about 110,000, then there will be a wave of sales growth.
Combining the preferential margins of Buick's previous models, the offers of the Veyron Pro this year can be expected.
Toyota Lingfang/Wei Sa
Positioning of the "caulking" model
It is not destined to be a volume model
Toyota's model prices have always been very strong, and predicting that Toyota's models will reduce prices is still a challenging thing. However, the price reduction of one model before gave me some confidence. I think the two cars that may be reduced in price this year are Lingfang and Weisa, and it is Toyota Asiatic Lion that makes me dare to say so.
Because the Asiatic Lion has a similar point with Ling Fang and Wei Sa, that is, it belongs to the "caulking" model. The so-called caulking model is a more subdivided model launched in addition to the mainstream model in order to enrich the product line.
For example, the Asiatic Lion is positioned as an A+ class, that is, a model above the Corolla and below the Camry. Ling Fang and Wei Sa are positioned above RAV4 and below Highlander.
Of course, this statement is a bit too simplistic, according to the manufacturer, LingFang, Weisa also have some of their own selling points, such as the use of coupe design, texture, materials are also more superior. But roughly speaking, it is not impossible to call it a "caulking" model.
If sales are dismal
A offer is a high probability event
Because of the positioning relationship, the sales of this model are destined not to be very high, and the sales of Asiatic Lion and Lingshang have been proved. Asiatic Lion sold just over 2,000 vehicles in December, and Ling Shang was even worse, with fewer than 1,000.
Although the positioning itself is niche, if faced with such sales, manufacturers are estimated to be difficult to accept calmly, so the discount is inevitable. We analyzed the other day why Asiatic Lion is now worth considering, because its deluxe version is currently discounted by 15,000-20,000, and it is currently only about 132,800. The 1.2T Corolla Deluxe Edition currently has a terminal price of more than 120,000.
That is to say, on the basis of Corolla, spending about 10,000 yuan more, you can upgrade from 1.2T to 2.0L self-priming, and the space is also larger, so the Asiatic lion is also worth considering.
And I think that a similar situation is likely to occur in Ling Fang and Wei Sa. The price of Lingfang is 21.18-29.78 million, and Weisa is slightly higher than it, at 216,800-30.38 million. To be honest, such pricing is not cheap.
The picture above shows Toyota Lingfang
Compared to rav4 and Veranda, it is more than 40,000 yuan more expensive, but the advantages it shows are not obvious. Compared with the Corolla, the Asiatic Lion, first of all, the 2.0L power is significantly higher than the 1.2T, and the space is much larger. But Lingfang, Weisa and RAV4, Velanda not only have the same power, but also have 2.0L self-priming and 2.5L hybrid. Even the wheelbase of the 4 models is exactly the same, all 2690mm.
Therefore, there are even fewer reasons to attract everyone to choose Lingfang and Weisa on top of the RAV4, and the sales of these two cars are not destined to be too high. If that's the case, then the offer can be expected.
Write at the end
Predicting a discount is actually a relatively risky thing, because the probability of punching the face is indeed relatively high. But as we said at the beginning, for car owners, the most tragic thing about buying a car is to reduce the price just after buying it. So even if the risk is high, we are willing to take a risk.
I just hope that if the prediction is wrong, everyone can also be more inclusive.
Finally, do you think that the cars that we predicted may be reduced in price this year will really be reduced? In addition, what models do you think there are, the probability of price reduction in 2022, welcome to leave a message to share Oh.