Smart electric MPV is coming, GL8 panic?

Gl8 or GL8, lonely and unsuccessful for several generations of cars.

But the high-end MPV market is no longer exclusive to GL8.

In the high-end MPV market with sliding doors of more than 200,000 yuan, the market share of Buick GL8 has fallen from a peak of 80% to 35% in the first quarter of this year.

Is the Buick GL8's product force not working? No.

Judging from the terminal retail sales data released by the Association, even after the epidemic, the sales of buick GL8 are still rising.

Source: Multiplying Association

Obviously, the serious decline in the market share of Buick GL8 has nothing to do with sales, and there is only one reason for this, that is, the high-end MPV market is growing rapidly. The reason is very simple, the numerator (sales) has not changed, then it can only be the denominator (market size) has become larger.

Source: Retail sales data of the Association

The overall sales figures prove the changes in the high-end MPV market, with sales in 2021 up 23.8% year-on-year, significantly ahead of the passenger car market's 6.5% growth.

The new increase in high-end MPV mainly comes from models other than the Buick GL8.

In 2021, traditional car companies such as Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, and Kia have launched high-end MPV models, and sales of the old rival Mercedes-Benz V-Class have also continued to rise.

In 2022, closely following the joint venture brand, independent brands are also ready to enter the high-end MPV market in a big way.

"Electric Vehicle Observer" collection and collation

The biggest feature of the new high-end MPV models of independent brands is that all of them are green-brand MPV that adopt new energy technology.

In 2023, the high-end MPV market will be more lively, focusing on new brands in the field of intelligent electric vehicles, Weilai, Ideal, Xiaopeng and JiKr also plan to launch their own high-end MPV products, while more traditional car companies do not forget to continue to promote new in this field.

"Electric Vehicle Observer" collects and organizes evidence

Incomplete statistics, in the three years from 2021 to 2023, the high-end MPV market will have more than 10 new cars launched, not including the iteration of the old models.

The launch of so many high-end MPV models shows that this segment has undergone tremendous changes, and one of the fundamental changes is that high-end MPV models have begun to enter the field of household consumption.

China's family structure is changing with the rise in life expectancy, multiplicity and other trends, the average number of households has increased, and the travel demand has changed from three families to three generations of common travel, and high-end MPVs are the best models to meet this demand.

The increase in sales of high-end MPV models other than the Buick GL8 is the best proof. Objectively speaking, it is the change in household travel demand that has led to the start of household MPV consumption.

GAC Toyota Sena

But car companies seem to have some hot heads, and the launch of more than 10 high-end MPV new cars in 3 years seems to be too much. In the home of MPV: In the United States, there are only a few hot-selling models in the high-end MPV market, such as Chrysler Grand Jair, Toyota Sena, Honda Odyssey (US version) and Kia Kahua.

China's high-end home MPV market has just started, there are so many new models at once, although the market size potential is very large, but the models also seem to be too much.

The track has not been paved, the runners are ready to rush up, will there be a stampede during the race? How can I stand out in the competition?

Answering these questions should be traced back to the source, from the market and demand to find answers.

01

High-end MPV ≠ commercial vehicles

Are high-end MPVs the same as commercial vehicles?

In the mouth of consumers, it is true that almost all three rows of 7-seat side sliding door MPVs are collectively referred to as commercial vehicles. However, from the actual sales situation, consumers have defaulted to the concept of high-end MPVs ≠ commercial vehicles.

"Electric Vehicle Observer" finishing

According to the different purchase groups and corresponding potential needs, high-end MPV can be divided into two types of models: commercial vehicles and home MPV. Specific to the typical model, the representative of the commercial vehicle is the Buick GL8, and the representative of the home MPV is the Honda Odyssey.

The length and wheelbase of commercial vehicles are large, which is convenient for many people to ride together, such as buick GL8 continuous multi-generation products, which are basically maintained at 5.2 meters in length, and Mercedes-Benz Vito is even more than 5.3 meters long.

Commercial vehicles are more inclined to business attributes, mainly to meet the second row of occupants to ride, or multi-person ride for the main purpose, in terms of space rigid needs, requiring the second row with independent seats, 7 people when the trunk can put more than 2 luggage.

Household MPV is mainly used to meet the use of home travel, not often sitting full of 7 people, the demand for space in the car is strong, but it is not common to sit full of 7 people and fill the trunk, so the length of the car is generally about 5 meters.

Most consumers only need two independent seats, but some consumers require the second row of seats to have the function of independent seats and side-by-side seat switching because of the needs of infants and young children or the elderly.

In terms of power, the potential demand for commercial vehicles and residential MPV is more different.

Commercial vehicles need more powerful performance, can meet the power needs of 7 people riding, in order to power can give up a certain fuel economy.

The power demand of the home MPV is not high, and it can meet the daily transportation needs, and consumers prefer models with good fuel economy.

In terms of comfort configuration, the demand for commercial vehicles spans a larger range, and the "three-door electric" function of the family MPV on both sides and the tailgate is just needed.

According to the different needs, commercial vehicles can be subdivided into office cars and reception cars. Office vehicles to carry people as the core demand, to meet the needs of multiple occupants of the comfortable ride, some office vehicles also need to take into account the needs of goods, so the need for comfort configuration is generally low. Reception cars are the opposite, three-door electric, aviation seats, luxury interior is the basic configuration, more advanced front and rear independent partitions, rear audio and video entertainment system, etc. are also common configurations for reception cars.

Honda Odyssey

In terms of comfort requirements, unlike commercial vehicles, three-door electric is the basic demand, and the independent air conditioning of the front and rear dual temperature zones to improve the comfort texture of the ride, the NVH experience, and the degree of suspension softness and hardness are the focus of the selection of consumers of home MPV models.

At the driving level, commercial vehicles are generally driven by professional drivers or experienced drivers, and the requirements for high-level auxiliary driving functions and the difficulty of handling the whole vehicle are low. The home MPV is driven by family members, and the driver's proficiency is different, which requires high-level auxiliary driving functions and the difficulty of vehicle control.

The different potential car purchase needs of commercial vehicles and family MPV directly determine the difference in product definition and product design of commercial vehicles and family MPV models, and the difference can be clearly seen from the product design of Buick GL8 and Honda Odyssey.

The Buick GL8 is more than 5.2 meters long, and even if it is full of 7 people, the trunk can hold 4 large trunks, with good power and high fuel consumption.

Honda Ode is less than 4.9 meters long, and when it is full of 7 people, the trunk space can only fit 1 large suitcase, and the second row of seats can be used independently or side by side, using hybrid power and low fuel consumption.

02

The track is crowded and the mix is dominant

In the high-end MPV market, hybrid models sell more.

"Electric Vehicle Observer" collection and collation

The high-end MPV market is already a crowded track, with more than 10 models on sale, but the annual sales volume in 2021 is only about 400,000 vehicles, and the average annual sales of each model are not more than 40,000 vehicles, and the head aggregation effect is obvious.

The only companies with stable monthly sales of more than 5,000 units are the Buick GL8 and Toyota Xena, as well as the brother combination of Honda Odyssey + Alexand (two models of the same model, different joint venture manufacturers).

The product definition and market positioning of the four models are different, but there are commonalities, and the power has a certain ability to hybridize.

Even excluding the 48V micro-hybrid technology used in the Buick GL8, the HEV hybrid technology used by Toyota Xena and Honda Audi and Alexand is also a market-tested hybrid technology.

Hybrids are transforming the MPV market.

One example is the rise of Toyota Sena in the 300,000-plus home MPV market.

Toyota Xena's competitors include Kia Kahua, which also went on sale in the second half of 2021, and Volkswagen Weiran, which went to market earlier.

In the U.S. market, Toyota Sena and Kia Jawa are competitors of the same level. Volkswagen Weiran is a special vehicle for the Chinese market, and it is in direct competition with Toyota Senna in terms of model level and price point.

Source: Multiplying Association

The sales comparison between Toyota Xena and Volkswagen Weiran shows that Toyota Senna's hybrid technology is more popular with consumers.

Through the sales comparison between Toyota Sena and Kia Kahua, it can be seen that when the product definition is basically the same, the dual advantages of hybrid technology and brand premium make Toyota Xena crush Kia Ka Wah. In the United States, although Sena also sells better than Ka Wah, there is no such huge difference in sales.

Kia Jawa

Not only can Toyota Xena prove that hybrid technology is changing the high-end MPV market, but the increase in sales of Honda Odyssey and Alexand models after switching from pure oil power to hybrid can also show the change of hybrid technology to the MPV market pattern.

Since hybrid technology can change the market pattern, what if it is a new energy vehicle technology with stronger power and better energy saving effect?

03

Plug-in trams are more competitive than hybrids

New energy vehicle technology is a better automotive power technology than hybrid technology, and it can indeed make up for the natural disadvantages of MPV when used in MPV.

High-end MPV models have the problem of "three highs": high wind resistance, high fuel consumption, and high cost of use.

The urban fuel consumption of buick GL8 early models is generally more than 14L/100km, and after the replacement of 2.0T turbo engine technology, the fuel consumption is reduced to about 12L/100km, and the 48V micro-hybrid version of the model on sale further reduces the fuel consumption to 10L/100km.

Honda Ellison

However, compared with the Toyota Sena and Honda Odyssey with HEV hybrid technology, the fuel consumption of the Buick GL8 is still high. High-end MPV with HEV hybrid technology can consume as low as 6-8L/100km.

Based on the oil price of 8 yuan / L, for every 1 liter reduction in fuel consumption, according to the annual driving mileage of 20,000 kilometers, the annual fuel cost can be reduced by 1600 yuan. The cost of use brought about by hybrid MPV models is reduced, about 5,000 yuan / year.

The cost of use directly determines the willingness of MPV consumers to buy a car.

In more popular terms, consumers can drive as much as they want to buy a car, but buying an MPV must be saved.

Toyota Sena, Honda Odyssey and other hybrid models, the MPV model fuel consumption to reduce the level of ordinary sedan, increase the use of MPV models, so that consumers can drive MPV like a car, how to drive how to drive.

The low-cost advantage of hybrid vehicles is the subjective reason for opening up the home MPV market.

In the high-end MPV market, since consumers can recognize Japanese hybrid technology, is it easier to be recognized by the market for plug-in hybrid technology with better power, lower fuel consumption, oilable and electric, and reduced cost of use?

With plug-in hybrid technology, the fuel consumption of high-end MPV models is expected to be reduced to less than 5L/100km, and it is possible to achieve zero fuel consumption pure electric driving in the city. The high-end MPV model with pure electric technology can truly drive at will and completely get rid of the shackles of the cost of use.

Lantu Automobile, BYD's Denza brand, and SAIC's Roewe brand of passenger cars will all launch new energy high-end MPV models in the near future.

Lantu Dreamer

Lantu Dreamer will launch two versions of plug-in range extension and pure electric version. With a length of 5.3 meters and a wheelbase of 3.2 meters, the car is a luxury business MPV model that competes head-on with the Buick GL8, of which the plug-in plus version has a pure electric endurance of 82km and the pure electric version has a range of 605km. The car is pre-sold for 380,000-600,000 yuan and will be listed on the evening of May 7.

Denza D9

Denza D9 will be available in plug-in hybrid and pure electric versions. The specific parameters of the car have not yet been announced, but from the information that has been revealed, the car will also be a model positioned in the luxury business MPV market, which will be released in mid-May, with a pre-price of about 400,000 yuan. Although the mileage data has not yet been released, from BYD's consistent product definition habits, the plug-in version of pure electric endurance is expected to exceed 100km, and the pure electric version has a range of more than 600km.

Roewe iMAX8 EV

Roewe iMAX8 EV, will launch a pure electric version, pure electric endurance of 550km, pre-priced 279,800-32.98 million yuan, battery staging scheme immediately reduced by 90,000 yuan, pre-priced 18.98-23.98 million yuan.

From a practical point of view, it is necessary to take into account that the MPV model has more requirements for the power-up speed than ordinary cars, and in the current market situation, plug-in MPV has a driving experience that surpasses hybrid MPV, and seems to be more easily accepted by the market.

But there is everything but.

04

Lessons from the past, lessons from the back cars

However, in the MPV market, MPV consumers pay special attention to word of mouth, and the herd effect is obvious.

Power technology, product definition, marketing means are the appearance, hidden behind the hot models, is the long-term product iteration and user accumulation.

Buick GL8 has achieved its current status because Buick GL8 has been produced and sold for 23 years, and has carried the background of countless dignitaries and merchants.

Honda's Odyssey's current sales are based on 20 years of domestic production, carrying the first memories of cars from generation to generation.

Toyota Syna was able to quickly open up the situation thanks to the excellent reputation of The Parallel Import Senna in Tianjin Port for ten years, as well as many product iterations in the United States.

Lexus LM, priced at 1.466 million, needs to increase the price of 820,000 to pick up the car

It should not be forgotten that Xena exclusively enjoys the brand premium brought by Toyota Alpha and Lexus LM.

Why did Volkswagen Viran, Kia Jawa, and earlier Ford Torurio return home in the high-end MPV market? Is it a lack of technical strength, or is the product definition inaccurate, or the market positioning is not clear?

There are all these reasons, but not fundamentally.

Volkswagen Weiran, Kia Jawa, ford Torreo, in the eyes of consumers, are all cars without heritage. Suddenly come out, or it may suddenly disappear.

Returning to the sales volume of the past years, it can be seen that high-end MPV is a very slow market. To create a high-end MPV, car companies need to come up with the spirit of craftsmanship, continuously accumulate product reputation, and accumulate the social value of the brand in order to succeed.

The household consumption of high-end MPVs has indeed been opened, and the urban wealthy class also has a clear desire to buy cars, which is good for the new energy high-end MPV market. In particular, in addition to technology, new energy high-end MPV also enjoys additional policy benefits such as licenses, subsidies, and tax exemptions.

New energy high-end MPV models should have excellent market performance.

But back to the opening question, the track of the high-end MPV market has not been paved, and the runners are ready to rush up, will there be a stampede during the race? How can I stand out in the competition?

The answer is yes, the race on the high-end MPV track, there will be stampedes, if you want to stand out, you must have accumulation.

Nowadays, car companies value the huge profits of the MPV market and the potential market potential, and have launched high-end MPV models. But if what car companies expect is a shocking effect like "a thunder on the ground", the results may not be optimistic.

Judging from the sales of GL8, Odyssey and Sena, new energy vehicle technology has advantages, giving car companies an opportunity to enter the high-end MPV market, but whether they can be proud of the world, the key is still on the accumulated reputation of the product.

Players who have entered the high-end MPV market have also begun to gradually evolve to new energy, GAC Trumpchi GM8 next-generation models will adopt plug-in THS hybrid technology, Roewe iMAX8 launched a pure electric version, Chase MIFA 9 is a high-end MPV based on a pure electric platform, proving that these car companies have been prepared for a long-term deep ploughing of the MPV market, and have accumulated a first-mover advantage.

For car companies that are about to go off the field, or plan to participate in the high-end MPV competition, it is worth being happy to get the ticket to the race with new energy vehicle technology, but we must be prepared to run a marathon at a 100-meter sprint speed.

It is not intelligent to drive the MPV to get together, you can grab the GL8 rice bowl.

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