Pure electric is the "dead door" of MPV models?
Extreme Daily (ID: rancaijingapp) original
Author | Hui Peng Quan
Edit | Rao Xiafei
Perhaps it is the increase in consumer demand for MPVs (utility vehicles), or perhaps the competition of car companies has shifted from Volkswagen models to niche cars, and in the past two years, more and more MPVs have appeared in people's sights.
Fuel vehicles represented by the Buick GL8, plug-in hybrids represented by the Denza D9 DM-i, hybrid models represented by the Toyota Senna SIENNA and pure electric models represented by the Zeekr 009 are all "digging and digging" in the "small" MPV market.
Judging from the statistics of the car purchase network in recent months, the "hegemony" of MPV fuel models is still unshaken, the sales of hybrid models are surprising, and pure electric models are "thunder and rain". Compared with the Buick GL8 with 47,674 units sold this year, the Denza D9 DM-i sold 42,175 units, the Extreme Krypton 009, which began nationwide delivery on January 15, sold 6,506 units this year, while the Denza D9 EV, which began global delivery on February 23, only 3,508 units.
Source/Buick official website Screenshot of Extreme Daily
For such a result, an automotive industry veteran who did not want to be named told Jipai Daily that with the improvement of people's living standards and the expansion of family size, the practicality and space advantages of MPVs have gradually been recognized, and new vitality has been injected into the automotive industry.
"At present, the sales of pure electric MPVs are indeed inferior to fuel vehicles or DM-i models, mainly because the cruising range and charging facilities of pure electric models have not been fully solved." The industry insider also said that MPV models are currently mainly used in business reception and other fields, which requires high reliability and endurance of vehicles. Therefore, in the short term, fuel vehicles are still the mainstream of the MPV industry.
Zhang Xiaorong, president of Deepin Science and Technology Research Institute, agreed with the above views. However, Zhang Xiaorong also believes that new energy MPV models are constantly being launched, and MPV sales and market share will continue to grow, "I believe that with the continuous advancement of technology and technology, new energy MPV models have unlimited development potential, and the future will definitely increase the sales and market share of pure electric MPVs." ”
In fact, the "market gap" of pure electric MPVs is being filled by new forces.
According to the Daily Economic News, Li Auto's Beijing green smart factory (that is, Li Auto's Beijing Shunyi plant) is "indeed actively preparing" and may start production in July-August. Ma Donghui, president and chief engineer of Li Auto, has said that the plant will prepare for the production of pure electric models, with a planned production capacity of 100,000 units per year.
The ideal first pure electric model is the MPV.
Earlier, He Xiaopeng, CEO of Xpeng Motors, also revealed, "In addition to G6, we have recently been polishing a new MPV - X9, and we will use this product to open up the 'young' MPV market." ”
However, at least for now, pure electric MPVs have not been recognized by the market.
As Zhang Xiang, a visiting professor at the Yellow River Institute of Science and Technology, said, in the next few years, the market share of MPV new energy vehicles will definitely gradually increase, but it will not become the main car of the family, especially the pure electric MPV model, "MPV model itself has more shortcomings, such as poor parking, high energy consumption, etc., unless the family with a larger population can be considered as an additional purchase model, the general family will still be based on SUVs and cars." ”
When talking about business reception, Zhang Xiang also agreed with the view that "MPV is mainly a fuel vehicle". "The core demand of commercial vehicles is efficiency, followed by brand awareness, so whether it is pure electric MPV or hybrid MPV, it is difficult to enter the list of commercial vehicles."
In this way, the road of pure electricity of MPV may not be easy to follow.
MPV looks forward to "turning red"
As we all know, MPVs have always been a "vulnerable group" in the continental automotive market. According to the statistics of the passenger association, MPV sales in 2022 were 943,000 units, while SUVs and sedans were 9.408 million and 10.193 million units, respectively.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Passenger Association, bluntly said that although the MPV market is growing against the trend, it is a niche market after all.
However, MPV also reached the "peak of life" in 2016. According to the Prospective Database, Continental's cumulative MPV sales in 2016 were 2.467 million units, up 21.8% y/y. Zhang Xiang said that such growth data has a certain relationship with the comprehensive liberalization of the "second child".
In 2021, the release of the birth of "three children" is undoubtedly another major good news for the MPV market. Car companies have also driven their MPV products into the 2021 Chengdu Auto Show and Guangzhou Auto Show in order to seize the opportunity. Since then, new MPV models have been unveiled globally at every motor show. For example, at the 2022 Guangzhou Auto Show, Hechuang Automobile's new pure electric flagship MPV Hechuang V09 made its world premiere; At the 2023 Shanghai Auto Show, Wei's first MPV model, Gaoshan made its world premiere.
Source/Extreme Daily Shooting
Although the sales of MPVs have fallen back to about one million units in recent years, a number of industry experts told Extreme Daily that the demand for MPV markets will continue to increase, mainly because of the increasing demand for family travel and business reception. Some analysis reports said that the next MPV car market will bottom out and rebound, and it is expected to hit 3 million units in 2026.
Chen Jia, an independent international strategy researcher, said that the MPV market has indeed ushered in an explosive period.
However, Chen Jia believes that the fundamental reason for the incremental MPV market of OEMs is not the direct promotion of the "two-child" and "three-child" liberalization, but the increasingly saturated urban automobile market and the overall cost of car purchase has fallen sharply.
Chen Jia also said that from the perspective of the development trend of China's automotive industry chain technology, the technical accumulation of MPV has been initially completed. "Domestic car companies, including traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, are greatly catching up with the international first-class level in terms of exterior design, interior decoration, central control platform, and three electric systems."
In Chen Jia's view, new energy MPVs are more in line with the green economy and carbon strategy, as long as the battery life and safety shortcomings can be systematically solved, the future high-end MPV market must belong to new energy vehicle companies.
Zhang Xiaorong and other industry experts also believe that in the next two or three years, the pattern of the MPV market will be more diversified, and the market share of new energy MPVs is expected to gradually expand, while traditional fuel models will still occupy a certain market share. Automotive companies need to constantly adjust their product layout and technological innovation according to changes in the market and consumer demand.
"At present, the most fatal shortcoming of new energy MPVs is not in performance, but in price power and brand power." Chen Jia told Jipai Daily that the current domestic brands have not yet achieved breakthrough innovation, the market head demand is still occupied by joint venture brands, and the high price of domestic brand models has not yet been exchanged for high reputation and full sales, "This is a point that is very worthy of reflection by domestic peers and urgently needs to be solved." ”
New energy MPVs are difficult to commercialize
However, although it seems to be "riding the wind and waves", there are still many doubts about new energy MPVs.
Extreme Daily is in
Black cat
The complaint platform and vehicle quality online found that there are many consumers who complain about new energy MPVs such as Extreme Krypton 009 and Denza D9.
Some consumers said that on March 9, the new car of Extreme Krypton 009 was found to have an air conditioning and refrigeration failure, and on
Polar Krypton
When the vehicle was returned for maintenance, the body was damaged and scratched in many places; Some consumers also said that as a high-end pure electric model of 500,000 yuan, Extreme Krypton 009 is not equipped with a HUD, nor does it give away charging piles, which is not kind; There are also a number of consumers who have complained about problems such as abnormal noise of the Denza D9 wheels and the lack of refrigeration in the refrigerator.
As the owner of the first batch of car pick-up of Extreme Krypton 009, Ah Hui from Ningbo, Zhejiang Province, summarized his car experience in the past 5 months and told Extreme Daily, "The overall is good, but there are too many small problems, I see in the group that the riders who pick up the car now will still encounter various problems." ”
Figure: Polar Krypton 009
Source: Photo courtesy of Ah Hui
Ah Hui picked up the car on January 17, and when he added glass water on February 12, he found that the glass water tank and water pipe and glass kettle came off and could not be filled with glass water. In the process of using the car, he will also encounter problems such as the air suspension fault light on, the car machine stuttering, the navigation black screen, the parking comfort function cannot be automatically canceled, and the seat button fails.
In addition, Ah Hui told Extreme Daily that after the background standby of the extreme krypton APP on his mobile phone, it cannot be unlocked with Bluetooth. He can only close the APP and reopen it, and it will take a few seconds to read the advertisement "Extreme Krypton Congratulates the 2023 Everest Arctic Mountaineering Team on the Success of Summit", and when all the loading is completed, the car door can be opened normally. "Kaiji Krypton can't be rushed." Ah Hui quipped.
Photo/Drive the Extreme Krypton 009 Northwest Self-driving Tour
Source: Photo courtesy of Ah Hui
On the issue of battery life, Ah Hui has also done special tests. At minus 3 degrees and the battery is 93%, the meter range is 652 kilometers, and Ah Hui from Ningbo to Hangzhou, the whole journey is 190 kilometers, the remaining power at arrival is 48%, and the meter range is 334 kilometers. After calculation, Ah Hui calculated that the comprehensive energy consumption of Extreme Krypton 009 was 5.6 discounted.
Since buying Extreme Krypton 009, Ah Hui has added several car owner groups, and there are often faulty pictures and videos sent by car owners, such as the door cannot be closed, the reversing image is delayed by half a second, the rearview mirror has amnesia, the seat track rubber strip is easily stuck by foreign objects, and the seams of the car shell are unequal.
Ah Hui will also post these pictures and videos on his social platform, so he was accused by some netizens of "car black", but Ah Hui looked at this matter more openly, "Extreme Krypton small problems are the facts." As for the question of "why not return the car", Ah Hui believes that Extreme Krypton 009 is the best pure electric MPV he believes at present.
In Zhang Xiang's view, such pure electric MPV is not suitable for business reception.
Zhang Li, the person in charge of Hefei Beihanhang Automobile Sales and Service Co., Ltd., obviously agrees with this view. Zhang Li told Extreme Daily that from the perspective of car use scenarios, the company does not care about the journey will cost a lot of money, but pays more attention to timeliness, "People who drive GL8, or take GL8 to consume in my store, generally do not turn off the fire, this is their habit, because to ensure that the temperature in the car remains unchanged." ”
"Business elites' time is more valuable, they are willing to spend money to buy more time, unlike family cars, they value the intelligence and comfort of the vehicle, and they are more willing to use time to exchange money." Zhang Li said.
Therefore, in the view of many industry insiders such as Zhangli, new energy MPVs are not yet GL8's opponents in terms of stability and reputation, so it remains to be tested by the market to become the "back wave" of commercial vehicles.
Can MPVs become mainstream?
Zhang Li also believes that the entry of new energy MPVs is still shaky to the status of traditional MPV models. "In the past, in the process of sales, we would say 'the manufacturing cost of MPV is high', so there is no discount, and even consumers need to increase the price. But in the past two years of new energy (MPV), we will see that many MPV models have begun to have discounts, and even the extent is not small. ”
When it comes to markup MPVs, you can't get around it
Elfa
Finish. According to Autohome, the highest price increase of Alpha is more than 300,000 yuan, almost its price in Japan. According to Pacific Auto Network, the new Alpha will be released in June.
Toyota
The official also promised that the new car refused to increase the price, and at the same time put an end to the price increase of terminal dealers, and if it was caught, it would be severely cracked down.
However, some insiders said that the fundamental reason why Alpha does not increase the price is that domestic high-end MPVs are making efforts, and "Alfa does not dare to increase the price."
According to data from Pacific Auto Network, in May, the top three luxury MPV sales of more than 500,000 yuan were Extreme Krypton 009 (2010 units),
Buick Century
(1437 vehicles) and
Mercedes V-Class
(1025 vehicles), while 4-6 places are Alpha (893 vehicles),
Wilfa
(222 vehicles) and
Lexus LM
(214 vehicles).
Source/
GAC Trumpchi
Official website Screenshot of Extreme Daily
In fact, in addition to polar krypton 009, Denza D9,
GAC
Trumpchi E9
and so on have good sales.
Zhang Xiaorong believes that in the next two or three years, the MPV market pattern will change slightly, and traditional fuel models will still occupy a certain market share, but new energy models will gradually erode their market share, and market competition will become more intense. MPVs with high cost performance and MPVs that meet multiple needs will be hot models in the market.
"However, in recent years, it has been difficult for the MPV market to shift from niche positioning to mainstream family cars, and it can only be said that with the expansion of cultural activities such as New Year, holidays and travel, the growth rate of MPVs will accelerate." Zhang Xiaorong said.
Zhang Li also believes that MPV will not become mainstream. However, he also said, "However, after the disruptive changes in the automotive industry in recent years, the future industry pattern is really difficult to guess." ”
However, some automotive analysts believe that with the continuous expansion of the MPV market and the diversification of consumer demand, the MPV market is expected to shift from niche positioning to mainstream family cars. Automotive companies need to continuously adjust product layout and technological innovation according to changes in market demand and consumer demand, and strengthen the innovative design and practicality of MPV vehicles.
The lack of domestic car companies in meeting and leading market demand is exactly what Chen Jia is worried about.
Chen Jia told Extreme Daily that there are very few domestic car companies that can truly perfectly integrate MPV functionality and power. Apart from
BYD
In addition to independent battery technology, the basic battery technology of most OEMs also relies on head battery manufacturers such as CATL.
"And now
tesla
The new Gigafactory has risen, and there is no doubt that Tesla will focus on pure electric trucks in the future. Once mass-produced, Tesla has enough capacity and technology to achieve a new round of strangling of the domestic MPV market. Chen Jia expressed his concern.
Therefore, in Chen Jia's view, if domestic new energy vehicle companies do not seize the opportunity to accelerate independent technological innovation at all ends of the industrial chain, and really work innovation, brand power and market power, under the tide of the upcoming new energy vehicle penetration rate continues to increase, family cars and commercial vehicles are purchased more, or replaced with MPVs, domestic car companies may face a more severe competition than now. At that time, the market concentration of MPVs may be "skyrocketing".
Nowadays, the ideal and Xpeng, which are good at manufacturing explosive models, have entered the MPV track, and it is worth looking forward to whether they can make MPVs that are still "niche cars" accepted by more families, and even enter the "white list" of commercial cars.
Resources:
"Break the game with high-end, new energy! Independent MPV wants to "wrestle" with the joint venture brand, and the market share of the segment is expected to reach 10%? Source: Daily Economic News;
"Alpha markup myth broken? Extreme Krypton 009 became the luxury MPV sales champion", source: Pacific Auto Network.
*The title image and the internal distribution picture of the text are taken by Extreme Daily.
*Ah Hui is a pseudonym in the text.
*Disclaimer: Under no circumstances does the information in this article or the opinions expressed constitute investment advice to anyone.
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