Penetration rate both across 20% New energy and intelligent vehicles have entered the stage of popularization

China Economic Network, December 20 (Reporter Jiang Zhiwen) Last Saturday (December 18), the 2022 Electric View Conference was held online. At the meeting, Qiu Kaijun, founder and editor-in-chief of Electric Vehicle Observer, said, "At present, smart electric vehicles have 10 major trends: smart electric vehicles have entered the stage of popularization; Intelligent driving landing; New marketing of smart electric vehicles; Supply chain expansion and upgrading; Autonomous controllability and globalization are not contradictory; Infrastructure into the second half; Capital pursuit; Cross-industry technology integration and innovation; "Double carbon" forced; Enterprise organization is intelligent. ”

Qiu Kaijun, founder and editor-in-chief of Electric Vehicle Observer

In 2021, the penetration rate of new energy passenger cars and L2-class intelligent passenger cars will cross the 20% mark in some months, indicating that new energy and intelligent vehicles have entered the stage of mass application. According to data, 40% of consumers are willing to pay for fully autonomous driving functions, and more than half of consumers are willing to pay for OTA upgrades.

Zhou Lijun, president and chief analyst of E-Car Research Institute, pointed out that according to the characteristics of population structure and economic development, Chinese users are showing four major characteristics: the user level shows a trend of new four modernizations; Product diversification; Channel three-dimensional; Marketing refinement.

"Chinese consumers have a much higher preference for Robotaxi than traditional developed countries like the United States or the United Kingdom, and companies are beginning to look for scenarios to promote commercialization." Yuan Wenbo, a partner at Roland Berger, pointed out that China's development of autonomous driving has a better market environment. In the next 5 years, China's autonomous driving penetration rate will increase rapidly, and high-level autonomous driving will achieve mass production, and there is a trend of local first-tier suppliers replacing overseas suppliers in the field of autonomous driving in China.

Li Jinyong, president of the New Energy Vehicle Branch of the Automobile Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce and chairman of the founder of China Overseas Electric, said that the downward trend of automatic driving prices has been clear, which has laid the foundation for its downward popularization.

In the view of Hu Saixiong, winner of Huawei's "Blue Blood Ten Jie" award, smart cars cannot happen without intelligent organizations. The top-down control of traditional enterprises makes it difficult for the top management to create scarce things, and at the same time, it is impossible to quickly perceive the market, and it will slowly become disconnected from the market. Hu Saixiong believes that to adapt to the development of intelligent electric vehicles, through open source, distributed management, and flexible flexible organization at the end, through learning to reduce individual mistakes, and ultimately adapt to deal with complex business.

In this regard, Zhu Yulong, founder of Automotive Electronic Design, believes that the development of intelligent electric vehicles is bringing a series of changes to the industrial chain: not only to promote the penetration of batteries, chips, fast charging and high-power semiconductors, but also to bring about differences in power battery business models, changes in electronic and electrical architecture, and computing power chips will become the next core bottleneck.

"The next 10 years should be the golden 10 years of investment in the entire industrial chain of smart electric vehicles." In 5 years, no industry will achieve such high growth as new energy vehicles, and in 10 years, it will still be a growth industry. Cui Yan, chief analyst of the automotive industry at Huaxi Securities, pointed out that Toyota, which had a maximum market value of more than 100 billion US dollars 10 years ago, has been replaced by Tesla with a market value of trillions; Among Chinese enterprises, the progress of new forces and private car companies in the field of electrification and intelligence should not be underestimated, and they continue to promote the upward development of independent brands.

As a representative from the enterprise, Zhou Jiang, president of Nezha Trading Company, believes that what is really lacking in the popular market of intelligent electric vehicles is whether car companies can bring users good products with affordable prices and high intelligence. In Zhou Jiang's view, smart electric vehicles are tracks without endgame, can not be conclusive, and there is no way to predict the extent to which science and technology will develop in the future.

Liu Feilong, founder and CEO of Hongjing Intelligent Driving, pointed out that enterprises can reduce hardware costs by optimizing software, develop efficient tool chains, and create advantages in addition to software and hardware collaboration. "We don't pay special attention to short-term valuations, but we push forward according to the logic of the development of the industry." Jia Guanghong, deputy general manager of BAIC Production and Investment, also said.

Focusing on the new energy field, "according to the double carbon target, the automobile industry should achieve a peak in carbon emissions around 2030." Liu Bin, chief expert of China Automotive Technology and Research Center and deputy director of China Automotive Strategy and Policy Research Center, proposed that products should be controlled and tax incentives for buyers to reduce carbon, forcing car companies to reduce emissions; Increase the cost of using fuel vehicles, recycling and other ways to reduce carbon emissions.

Qiu Lin, chief scientist of zero-carbon products of Envision Technology Group, stressed that the carbon reduction of enterprises must first find out the bottom line, and the carbon accounting of the enterprise itself should be carried out; Second, specify carbon reduction targets; The third step is to implement energy conservation and emission reduction programs, including improving energy efficiency and reducing carbon emissions throughout the value chain; The fourth step is to develop a negative emissions plan to ultimately achieve carbon neutrality goals.

"The development of New Energy Vehicles in China has encountered a rare historical opportunity in a hundred years," Yang Hongxin, chairman and CEO of Hive Energy, believes that it is necessary to seize the first-mover advantage, seize the fleeting window period before the transformation of Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea is completed, and the production capacity layout is quickly completed, and the construction of production capacity and product iteration and supply chain construction are completed at the fastest speed.

However, public charging still does not make money, "investment in tens of thousands, income on a gross basis." Huang Shan, co-founder of "Electric Vehicle Observer", believes that the reason is that the supply and demand relationship is unbalanced and the time and space mismatch, at the same time, the energy companies represented by BP and Sinopec, the main engine factories represented by new forces, and local funds have entered in a big way, and the market elimination game is accelerating.

"To promote the construction of private charging piles in the community, it is still necessary to find a business model that investors, operators, properties and users can win-win." In addition, you can also look to the countryside, solar + charging also has a broad space. Huang Zhiming, chairman of Zhida Technology, added.