The penetration rate may reach 35%, and new energy vehicles have entered a new stage of growth

Drawing: Yang Jia

According to data from the China Automobile Association, from January to February this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 820,000 units and 765,000 units, respectively, maintaining a rapid growth rate of 1.6 times and 1.5 times year-on-year. In this regard, some insiders have given optimistic predictions about the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, which is expected to reach 35% this year.

The high growth of new energy vehicle consumption will continue to inject kinetic energy into the development of the mainland automobile industry and promote the transformation of industrial electrification. However, it is necessary to think about what is the kinetic energy support that follows? Will there be sustainable development in the future?

When summarizing the inevitability of electric vehicle sales and entering a new stage of rapid development, Ouyang Minggao, vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred Association and academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, believes that there are three important factors: market, technology and policy. In the future, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles will continue to rise; technological breakthroughs will continue to enhance product competitiveness and innovate the experience of using new energy vehicles; under the goal of "double carbon", the demand for electrification transformation will continue to benefit the new energy vehicle industry.

The market penetration rate is increasing month by month

In 2021, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the mainland has increased from 6% in January last year to 22% in December, an average increase of 1.3 percentage points per month. It is expected that in March this year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will exceed 28%. According to the speed of industry change last year, if measured according to the same speed of development, at the end of this year, it is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the mainland will reach 35%.

More importantly, the field of penetration of new energy vehicles has not been as focused on the To B field such as online car-hailing and taxi as in the past. Compared with the early stage of the "13th Five-Year Plan", the proportion of private consumption of new energy vehicles has increased from 47% to 78%, and the proportion of private consumption in non-restricted cities has increased from 40% to 70%, which reflects the significant increase in the recognition of the new energy vehicle market, the market has the ability to sustainable development, and the endogenous power of industrial development is constantly emerging.

In fact, the industry's discussion about the development trend of the new energy vehicle market has been worrying about the voice. Since the beginning of this year, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles has declined, and the cost of supply chain has led to a wave of "price increases" in the new car market, which has more or less affected the consumption enthusiasm of new energy vehicles. However, relevant data show that market sales have not decreased but increased.

From January to February this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 820,000 units and 765,000 units, respectively, maintaining a rapid growth rate of 1.6 times and 1.5 times year-on-year. At present, the March sales that have been released by many car companies show that while maintaining high growth year-on-year, month-on-month deliveries have also improved.

"Rising new energy vehicle prices will hit consumers' enthusiasm for buying in the short term, but China's diversified market for new energy vehicles will offset this disadvantage." Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the passenger car market information joint meeting, analyzed that the challenges and opportunities brought by price increases to the development of the new energy vehicle industry will prompt enterprises to further improve technology and reduce costs, and eliminate adverse effects through design optimization, and the price increase of new energy vehicle companies fully reflects the very healthy development of new energy vehicles.

Cui Dongshu expects that the year-on-year growth rate of new energy passenger vehicles in March this year will be more than 100%, and the current growth rate in the first quarter is in line with expectations, or even slightly exceeds expectations. Therefore, the annual sales target of 6 million new energy vehicles does not need to be adjusted, and it can meet expectations.

Technological breakthroughs revolutionize the use experience

What are the factors behind the explosive growth of the new energy vehicle market? The key lies in technological innovation to continuously improve the competitiveness of products and enhance the consumer experience.

In recent years, the technological innovation breakthrough and landing process of new energy vehicles has been accelerating. Taking battery safety, life, endurance and other pain points as an example, a number of battery solutions in the industry such as magazine batteries, blade batteries, and Dayu batteries have emerged, and thermal runaway protection batteries are also relatively mature; in order to solve the use problem, while increasing infrastructure construction, breakthroughs in fast charging and power exchange technology and commercialization have also accelerated the process.

Falling into the market competition, it is reflected that new energy vehicles have appeared with super competitive products compared with traditional cars. Taking hybrid products as an example, from January to February, the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles reached 168,000 units and 161,000 units, respectively, an increase of 2.8 times and 2.5 times year-on-year, respectively, and production and sales remained at a high level for four consecutive months. Compared with fuel vehicles, hybrid products have significant fuel economy advantages, and at the same time, the advancement of electric drive electronic control technology has brought a good driving control experience. At present, the market recognition of hybrid products is rising rapidly, and independent brands such as BYD, Great Wall, and Geely are accelerating their layout.

In addition, the new car-making forces represented by Tesla and "Wei Xiaoli" have increased the layout of the brand in intelligence and high-end, and gradually changed consumers' perception of new energy products. For example, lidar has become an important label for the intelligence of new energy vehicles, and the intelligent cockpit series has also continuously broken through to refresh consumers' perceptions. In February this year, the market share of the new car-making forces has increased to about 5%, and even affected the concentration of "head" sales of traditional fuel vehicles.

From January to February this year, the production and sales of mainland vehicles were 4.235 million units and 4.268 million units, an increase of 8.8% and 7.5% year-on-year, while the growth rate of production and sales of new energy vehicles was as high as 1.6 times and 1.5 times, far exceeding the overall level. "In recent years, the pace of technological innovation in new energy vehicles has shown an accelerating trend, which has played a key supporting and leading role in improving the competitiveness of new energy vehicle products." Vice Minister of Science and Technology Xiang Libin said: "Scientific and technological innovation has and will continue to profoundly reshape the shape and pattern of the automotive industry. ”

Policy support continues to be positive

Although the new energy automobile industry has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven, it does not mean that policy factors are no longer important, but there have been some changes in the way policies promote industrial development - the color of subsidies and incentives has faded, and the intensity of supervision and guidance has been strengthened. To continue to support the consumption of new energy vehicles, the status and role of policies are still critical.

Xiao Yaqing, minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, has said that policies such as subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles, incentives for charging facilities, and preferential tax reductions and exemptions for vehicles and vessels will continue to be implemented. At the same time, new energy vehicles, green smart home appliances, green building materials to the countryside and other activities. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will pay close attention to studying and clarifying support policies such as the continuation of preferential tax treatment for new energy vehicle purchases, optimize the "double integral" management method, do a good job of effectively connecting with subsidies, and stabilize market expectations.

Ensuring the high growth of new energy vehicle consumption will continue to inject kinetic energy into the development of the mainland automobile industry and promote the transformation of industrial electrification, which also coincides with the goal of "double carbon". Relevant statistics show that the transportation sector is the third largest source of carbon emissions in the mainland after industry and construction, and the carbon emissions of the automobile industry account for more than 80% of the carbon emissions in the mainland transportation sector, accounting for about 7.5% of the carbon emissions of the whole society. Among them, the carbon emissions at the use end of the car account for 90% of the total carbon emissions of the car. Compared with fuel vehicles, new energy passenger cars reduce carbon emissions by about 15 million tons per year during the use phase.

Just at the just-concluded 2022 Electric Vehicle 100 People's Conference, the "double carbon" strategy has formed a new thrust for the rapid development of new energy vehicles. The "Carbon Peak Action Plan before 2030" clearly states that by 2030, the proportion of new energy and clean energy-powered transportation vehicles will reach about 40%.

Ouyang Minggao estimates that the carbon emissions per kilometer of electric vehicles in 2021 will be about 70 grams, compared with the carbon emissions of 170 grams per kilometer of fuel vehicles, the emissions of pure electric vehicles are basically only 40% of that of fuel vehicles. After 2030, electric vehicles will begin to become units with negative carbon emissions. He believes that the negative carbon effect of new energy vehicles will be favorable in terms of a series of policy support.

Southern Daily reporter Wei Hongquan Gong Qianshu

Intern Wu Jiatong

Co-ordinator Guo Xiaoge