From March 25th to 27th, the 8th China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum was held, and representatives of relevant government departments, authoritative scholars in the industry, industry leaders, etc. gathered together to conduct in-depth discussions on how to better understand and grasp the new stage of market-oriented development, and how to enhance the innovation ability of enterprises and seize new market opportunities.
Wan Gang: Scientific and technological progress leads to innovative breakthroughs in the new energy vehicle market
Wan Gang, vice chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and chairman of the China Association for Science and Technology, said in his speech that it looks like New Energy Vehicles in China. The first feature is the electrification of intelligent empowerment. In 2021, China's new energy passenger cars have basically achieved full coverage of the Internet of Vehicles, and some leading auto companies have launched mass-produced new cars equipped with V2X technology. The market penetration rate of L2 driver assistance systems in new energy vehicles has reached 38%.
In addition, from the perspective of demonstration operation scenarios in various places, the comprehensive development of hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicles has entered the demonstration application of commercial vehicles in multiple scenarios. The life of fuel cells generally reaches more than 10,000 hours, and some of the systems in operation of fuel cell vehicles have reached 30,000 hours. The infrastructure of hydrogen energy, including green hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, operation and refueling, has favorablely supported the application of hydrogen fuel cells in long-distance passenger transport, long-distance freight, logistics, docks, mines and other long-distance heavy-duty fields.
Miao Wei: Deep and coordinated development across industries is crucial
Miao Wei, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, said that in the past, the car was generally a mechanical product, and now it involves communications, artificial intelligence, roads, etc., in fact, it is a large mobile intelligent terminal, the mobile phone is a small mobile intelligent terminal, and the car is a large mobile intelligent terminal.
Intelligent networked vehicles have gathered car companies, software companies, chip companies, Internet companies, etc. in an open, cooperative, mutually integrated and symbiotic industrial ecosystem.
In the future, information and communication technology enterprises, infrastructure construction enterprises, transportation enterprises, smart city development enterprises, etc., will play a unique role in the development of intelligent networked vehicles, and cross-border cooperation and common development should be carried out.
We should continue to give full play to the synergy between the central and local governments, give full play to the institutional advantages of concentrating on major events, do a good job in overall planning and division of labor, and work together to promote the development of intelligent and connected vehicles.
Xin Guobin: Pay close attention to the price increase of battery raw materials
Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that the mainland's new energy automobile industry has entered a new stage of rapid development of scale and high quality, building a new development pattern, accelerating the implementation of strategic deployment, and deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, the long-term fundamentals of the mainland economy will not change, and the conditions supporting high-quality development will not change. The development of the new energy automobile industry in the mainland will still be in a period of important strategic opportunities.
On the other hand, we must also see that in the new stage, the difficulty and complexity of tackling tough problems and breakthroughs are increasing, and some new situations and new problems need to be solved. In terms of supply quality, there are still some deficiencies in the quality and safety of new energy vehicles and low temperature adaptability. The integrated development of electrification, intelligence and networking needs to be continuously deepened.
In terms of supporting conditions, the supply capacity of key raw materials and parts required for large-scale development and the ability to guarantee charging and replacing services need to be improved. The current problem of sharp price increases in power battery raw materials requires high attention and serious study to solve.
Xu Changming: New energy vehicles and traditional oil vehicles are competitive rather than alternative
Xu Changming, deputy director of the State Information Center, said that new energy vehicles will usher in rapid development. According to the current technological development, in a long period of time, new energy vehicles and traditional oil vehicles are a competitive relationship rather than a replacement relationship.
Electric vehicles have many advantages, lower cost of use, better acceleration experience, more scientific and technological functions, more rich scenarios, are relatively good aspects of oil vehicles. However, there are also relative disadvantages, the energy is not as convenient as the fuel car, the mileage stability, especially after the high speed of the rapid increase in power consumption, including winter power attenuation, the residual value of the car is relatively low, the purchase cost is relatively high, safety concerns, change consumer driving habits, these aspects are relatively inferior to the oil car. So far, electric vehicles have not completely covered the good aspects of the basic characteristics of fuel vehicles. In the future, if there is no breakthrough in battery technology, if the car is still a transportation tool, and there is no particularly large revolutionary breakthrough in technology, electric vehicles will not be able to form a comprehensive and rapid replacement for oil vehicles. For quite some time, the two were competitive rather than substituted.
Ouyang Minggao: There will be battery overcapacity in 2025
Ouyang Minggao, vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association and academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that according to the data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Bureau of Statistics, the team's forecast results show that the peak of fuel vehicle sales will appear in 2022-2023, after which fuel vehicle sales will continue to decline, while new energy vehicle sales will be basically the same as fuel vehicles around 2030, accounting for half of the total sales of vehicles, which is roughly the same as the goal of China's energy-saving and new energy vehicle technology roadmap.
As the global electric vehicle enters a stage of rapid development, the battery industry has also ushered in rapid development. Rapid expansion of production capacity, based on industrial investment information forecast, mainland battery production capacity in 2023 may reach 1.5 billion kWh (1500GWh), 2025 may reach 3 billion kWh, battery shipments are expected to reach 1200GWh in 2025, of which 70% or 80% will be used in the domestic market, and 20% or 30% will be exported to overseas markets. It expects battery overcapacity in 2025.
Zhu Huarong: Accelerate the construction of infrastructure such as charging and replacing electricity
Zhu Huarong, secretary of the party committee and chairman of Changan Automobile, said that in order to better promote the development of China's new energy automobile industry, it is recommended that the government strengthen the layout and coordination, coordinate the development of the industry, and accelerate the construction of infrastructure such as charging and replacing.
Among them, it is necessary to study and solve the problem of power capacity increase brought about by the increase in electricity consumption in old residential areas, accelerate the construction of charging infrastructure and power transformation; promote the development of charging and replacing dual lines, solve the problem of peak travel electricity congestion; use information means to make electricity reservations and planning, and realize the balanced distribution and efficient utilization of charging piles and replacement power stations.
Wang Chuanfu: The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainland China can reach 35% at the end of this year
Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD, said that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the mainland increased by an average of 1.3 percentage points per month from 6% in January at the beginning of last year to 22% in December at the end of the year. The penetration rate in the first half of March this year has exceeded 28%.
New energy vehicles are different from home appliances, mobile phones and other industries, in addition to market-driven, there are also policy-driven and national strategic orientation. If ten years ago, the development of new energy vehicles was mainly driven by policies; 3 or 5 years ago, the development of the industry was a two-wheel drive of "policy + market", then the current market drive accounted for 70%, and the policy drive was 30%. Wang Chuanfu predicts that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the mainland will reach 35% by the end of this year.
Gu Huinan: Young people have played an important role in driving the consumption of new energy vehicles
Gu Huinan, general manager of GAC Aean, said that the growth rate of the new energy vehicle market will continue to maintain a high growth rate in the next few years. The reason why the new energy vehicle market can achieve rapid development is first of all due to the speed of scientific and technological innovation in the past few years. Take the cruising range, starting from two or three hundred kilometers in the past few years, the product has generally reached five or six hundred kilometers of endurance, which can basically meet the needs of most users. But like winter battery life problems, cost problems, safety issues, but also to solve.
In addition, with the rapid development of new energy vehicles in recent years, ICV (intelligent network vehicle) technology is also developing rapidly, and the rapid development of intelligent networked vehicle technology is especially loved by young people, so young people have played a very important role in driving new energy vehicle consumption.
Cover news reporter Liu Nian