The National VIB boots landed, there is still half a year of transition left, and the joint venture car will be crazy to "clear the warehouse"?

With 30 days left before the China VIA ban on July 1, will the price of fuel vehicles begin to increase?

Under the influence of weak consumer demand and the imminent full implementation of the National VIB standard, fuel vehicles, especially joint venture fuel vehicles, have become the main force for price reduction and destocking.

According to the latest data from the Passenger Association, in April, stimulated by the price war, the sales of traditional fuel vehicles picked up slightly. However, in the terminal market, many salespeople said: the pressure of National VIA to inventory is still huge. After all, not long ago, it was reported that the domestic models that did not meet the requirements of China VIB had more than 2 million vehicles in stock (including purchased parts).

More dealers of joint venture brands called on the official level to delay the implementation of the China VIB standard, so that the terminal market has enough time to clean up the inventory of China VI A to get a respite. Unfortunately, the industry did not expect the news of the delay in the landing of China VIB in the end, and instead the ban on the sale of China VIA A will be implemented on July 1 this year as scheduled.

However, just after the announcement of the landing of China VIB, many media gave the same interpretation:

"Fuel vehicles may be going to increase in price! ”

So, what's going on here?

「 01 」

Is it the consumer's turn to be nervous?

"It's amazing, after the new announcement, more people came to the store to see the car. ”

Talking about the lively test scene of the store in recent days, Lee, a salesman at a joint venture brand 4S store in Ganzhou, Jiangxi Province, felt incredible.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments jointly issued the "Announcement on Matters Related to the Implementation of China VI Emission Standards for Automobiles", which provides a half-year sales transition period for China VIB models with RDE experimental report results of "only monitoring", which CITIC Securities analysis pointed out, which will alleviate the terminal price war.

In this regard, Lee said that since March this year, both independent brands and joint venture brands have almost taken significant price reduction measures in order to boost sales and clear inventory before the ban on China VIA.

However, many consumers believe that the closer to the China VIA ban on July 1, the greater the price reduction of the model, so they hold the currency and wait and see. Therefore, the large-scale and substantial price reduction of China VIA models has limited effect on the sales of traditional fuel vehicles.

"Now that the ban date has landed, it also gives non-RDE standard China VIB models, and the half-year sales transition period is a respite for fuel vehicle companies and dealers, and the pressure to reduce prices for similar models is not very great." Lee revealed that in addition to China VI A models, there are also many non-RDE models of China VIB standards in the industry.

In the first and second quarters of this year, almost all fuel vehicle companies and dealers are working hard to go to the inventory of China VI A models. If the announcement of the five departments does not "loosen" the non-RDE models of the China VIB standard, and reserves a half-year sales transition, car companies and dealers will face double inventory pressure.

In other words, if the inventory of China VI A is not cleared, it must start clearing the inventory of non-RDE models of China VIB standard. Lee said that at present, most fuel vehicle companies and dealers have cleared the inventory of China VI A models, but there are still many non-RDE models of China VIB standard.

"But now there is a half-year transition period, car companies, dealers have enough time to clear inventory, compared with China VIA models, China VIB standard non-RDE models, previously sold in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, inventory is not particularly large, the pressure is slightly less." ”

What's more, after the announcement of the five departments, many media and industry organizations have also analyzed and pointed out: car companies and dealers have enough time to deal with non-RDE models of the national six b standard, and the price of fuel vehicles may stop falling and rise.

Therefore, Lee admits that this time it is the turn of consumers who previously held the coin to wait and see nervously.

Many fuel vehicle brand salespeople said that after the boots of the National Six B policy landed, there were more people watching cars in 4S stores, and many consumers who thought they were shrewd, for fear of missing the last train with low prices, did not dare to wait for July to start.

「 02 」

A joint venture fuel vehicle that cannot be sold

"Now fuel vehicles really can't be sold. ”

Li Na (pseudonym), who has been engaged in automobile sales for nearly ten years, has experienced the historical period of the 2015 China IV emission standard and the 2022 ban on the sale of China V emission models. Now, she is about to witness the implementation of the ban policy for China VIA models.

Li Na said frankly that compared with the previous two changes in emission standards, the transition time of China VIA A is shorter, and the process of clearing the China VIA inventory fuel vehicles is more "tragic". In the past few changes in emission standards and bans on model sales, there has been no large-scale and substantial price reduction process for car companies.

According to data from the Passenger Association of China, in April this year, one month after the "Dongfeng system" collectively "lifted the table", the retail sales of the domestic passenger car market reached 1.63 million units, a year-on-year increase of 55.5%. Overall sales seem to be good, but the growth of new energy vehicle sales is indispensable.

In April, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 527,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 85.6%, and the penetration rate reached 32.3%. In other words, for every three cars sold today, one is a new energy vehicle. In the same period last year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was only about 25%, and only one of every four cars sold was a new energy vehicle.

"Wasn't the purchase tax for fuel vehicles halved last year (the second half of the year), and people who had car purchase demand bought cars last year." Li Na said frankly that the halving of the purchase tax will lead to the front-loading of consumers' demand for cars, which will also be one of the key reasons for aggravating the decline in sales of traditional fuel vehicles and the difficulty of destocking non-national VIB emission standard models.

However, although the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached 32.3%, for every three cars sold, and two are traditional fuel vehicles, why can't they be sold? Some people in the relevant industry pointed out that if Tesla is removed, the field of new energy vehicles can be said to be a "war" between independent brands.

However, in the field of traditional fuel vehicles, it is a "big chaos" of imports, joint ventures, and independent brands. With the increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the fuel vehicle market will be further compressed, and the competition between car companies and dealers is much fiercer than in the new energy field, and the most intuitive feeling of the sales terminal is naturally that fuel vehicles cannot be sold.

In fact, in this fuel vehicle inventory war, the pressure on joint venture brands is much greater than that of independent brands. After all, for their own fuel vehicle technology "confident" joint venture brands, when developing new energy vehicle products, dare not be too aggressive, for fear that the product power of their own new energy vehicles will overwhelm the "living" fuel vehicle products.

But independent brands do not have such "baggage". Due to the slow start of the domestic automobile industry, most independent brands obviously do not have much "confidence" in their own fuel vehicle technology. Therefore, in the innovation of vehicle electrification, it is much bolder than the joint venture brand, anyway, it is a backwater battle.

After several years of development, independent brands can be said to be fuel, new energy vehicles, and some brands are even all in new energy. As the ban on China VI A-emission models approaches, the pressure on inventory vehicles for sale is naturally much lower than that of joint venture brands.

And this also explains why the "lifting the table" price reduction is mostly joint venture car brands.

「 03 」

Is the half-year transition period enough?

There has been a view on the Internet that since the ban on the sale of China VIA models is imminent, why don't car companies consider exporting China VIA inventory models abroad to disperse the pressure. After all, the upcoming China VIB emission standards in China are already the most stringent in the world.

In fact, some people familiar with the matter said that exporting China VIA models to other countries is indeed one of the ways to disperse the inventory pressure of car companies, and some car companies do this. However, at present, the proportion of new energy vehicles in domestic exports overseas has reached more than 30%. By exporting the stock of fuel vehicles, the effect is limited.

As a result, a large number of China VIA and China VIB non-RDE inventory cars were eventually pressed into the dealer network by car companies. Not long ago, Cui Shudong, secretary general of the Passenger Association, said that at present, there are still about 1 million non-RDE models in the inventory of China VIB b, and the inventory pressure is not large.

"The half-year transition period is to be able to breathe. But one by one, when will so many inventory cars be sold? Manager Liu, head of sales of a joint venture brand 4S store in Fuzhou, said frankly that because car companies put a large amount of inventory on dealers, the pressure of terminal destocking is still not small.

In the past, at the end of each year, in order to achieve the annual sales target, car companies would also press new cars into the dealer network, and dealers would also use a "killer app" in order to sell more cars and get sales rebates.

Since the price is usually eight or nine percent off a brand new car, similar quasi-new cars are also very popular in the second-hand market, "At the beginning, when I went to China VI A inventory, including our store, many dealers also did the same, licensed the car, and then sold it to second-hand car dealers, passing on the inventory pressure of the store." ”

However, Manager Liu said frankly that due to the large inventory of China VIA models, coupled with the "disruption" of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles are not easy to sell, and the "quasi-new cars" that second-hand car dealers can digest are also quite limited. After the "Dongfeng series" lifted the table and the price of joint venture cars was collectively reduced, second-hand car dealers did not dare to buy joint venture cars in large quantities for fear of declining value retention.

"Although China VIB non-RDE cars can still be sold until the end of the year, the China VIA in the hands of second-hand car dealers has not yet been sold, even if the price is low, it is impossible to eat the next batch of new inventory, so (joint venture) dealers dare not relax too much." Manager Liu revealed that many stores are looking forward to halving the purchase tax in the second half of the year in order to clean up the inventory of cars.

【Conclusion】

It is not difficult to see that non-RDE inventory vehicles have become a big stone in the hearts of joint venture brand car companies and dealers. Although the landing of China VIB boots has given some non-RDE models a half-year sales transition period, the "rhythm" of public opinion also reminds consumers who hold coins to "receive when they see good" and do not miss the best opportunity.

However, under the squeeze of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles are no longer the only choice for consumers to buy cars, and the once "high-level" joint venture fuel vehicle brands are now afraid to relax for a moment. In the second half of the year, with the decline in lithium mine prices, there is still room for new energy vehicles to reduce prices, and it is still unknown whether joint venture fuel vehicles can be successfully "cleared".