EU "ban on burning" under compromise: banned! But not completely banned!

Hello everyone, I am the president of the Electric Vehicle Commune.

To share with you a "new" news:

On March 28, the European Union officially passed the regulations banning the sale of fuel vehicles in 2035!

Some careful friends may say, no, isn't this thing passed in February?!

And the EU's ban on the sale of fuel vehicles in 2035 has been put on the agenda a few years ago, why is it still fried cold rice this year?

That's right, but every time the issues surrounding the "ban on fire" are debated, they are really different!

Wonderful verbal swords are only the surface, and behind every progress of the bill, there are countless conflicts of interest.

In this way, the real dust has settled on March 28.

So, what twists and turns has the EU experienced in order to promote the "ban on burning"?

What is the impact of the implementation of the "ban on burning"? Is it digging your own grave?

Next, the president will take everyone to explore!

01. Bill: The ultimate pull

If you start from scratch, the EU first proposed a "ban on the sale of fuel vehicles in 2035" in July 2021.

At that time, the European Union proposed a package of emission reductions called "Fit for 55", which included a total of 12 specific emission reduction measures, including "2035 ban on new fossil fuel vehicles".

The special time point of "ban on combustion" and "2035" began to enter the public eye from this time.

Now that the concept is there, all that remains is how to put the concept on the ground and implement it effectively.

In this regard, the EU's intention is to first adopt a binding regulation, and then set up relevant law enforcement agencies, according to the timetable set in the regulation to urge countries and major enterprises to implement.

In short, you have to go through the process.

According to the EU legislative process, for the "ban on fire" to be determined in legal form, it needs to be proposed by the European Commission, and then confirmed by the European Parliament and the European Council.

In June 2022, the European Parliament voted to adopt a ban on the sale of new fossil fuel vehicles by 2035. However, when it was voted by the environment ministers of the EU member states, it was opposed by five EU countries, represented by Germany.

(Why is Germany so rebellious, for details, please check here to see the previous episode: Germany cancels 2035 carbon neutrality target?) The Europeans finally decided to abandon environmental protection ?! ）

After a fierce exchange of views, the two sides ended with a two-point compromise by the EU:

1. Allow the sale of carbon-neutral cars after 2035, that is, as long as the car itself can achieve zero carbon emissions, then even hybrid cars or new cars using synthetic fuels can be sold;

2. Automakers with an annual output of less than 10,000 cars or less than 22,000 small trucks can delay the sale of fuel vehicles for 5 years until 2040.

These two opponents desperately left behind can be directly regarded as two death-free gold medals for hybrid and supercar and ultra-luxury brands.

In this way, under the stumbling block of "you are reluctant and I am unwilling", the EU finally reached a consensus in October 2022 to "ban the sale of new fossil fuel vehicles by 2035".

Yes, there is only a consensus here, and the "ban on fire" has still not risen to the legal level.

Fast forward the year, in February 2023, the "ban on burning" was finally passed by the European Parliament with a bill called "2035 European Zero Emission Agreement for New Fuel Cars and Minivans".

At this point, almost even the "three media and six hires" have been completed, just waiting for the wedding (passed by the European Council) to enter the cave room (the law landed)!

Hey, on the eve of the "wedding", someone repented.

This "person" is Germany.

Indeed, the adoption of the Agreement in February was reluctant, with 340 votes in favour, 279 against and 21 abstentions, proving that the divisions within the EU are considerable.

Even if the bill is passed in the European Parliament, it does not mean that the EU member states participating in the meeting willingly recognize it. Germany's firm opposition has only taken the lead.

Moreover, these countries "suddenly turn against the water", and the EU is also responsible.

The agreement, issued in February, requires all new cars sold in the EU market to meet zero-carbon emissions standards by 2035, and hybrid vehicles cannot be included.

Hey, the consensus on "2035 ban on the sale of fuel vehicles" was passed by the environment ministers of the EU member states last year because of the two compromises that the EU agreed.

As a result, when it was the turn to vote on a formal bill, it "snapped" one less.

For the other side, how is this not a backstab in the EU?

So what else is there to say, fuss!

The European Council vote, scheduled for March 7, has been postponed indefinitely due to formal opposition from Germany.

Germany, along with other countries that have expressed opposition, is once again at the negotiating table with the EU.

In the end, Germany and the EU took a step back, Germany did not win an amnesty for hybrid vehicles, but the EU gave a gold medal to avoid death: synthetic fuel vehicles.

Based on the results of this negotiation, the European Council finally successfully held a voting ceremony on March 28 and formally adopted the Agreement.

(Commissioner for Energy of the European Commission and Minister of Energy, Commerce and Industry of Sweden)

The agreement stipulates that CO2 emissions from new cars and new trucks will be reduced by 55% and 50% respectively between 2030 and 2034 compared to 2021 levels; From 2035, CO2 emissions from new cars and vans will be reduced by 100%, i.e. zero emissions.

Meanwhile, zero-emission new cars with e-fuel, a synthetic fuel, a clean fuel made from carbon dioxide or carbon monoxide and hydrogen, can be registered for sale after 2035;

A small number of low-level automakers, namely supercars, ultra-luxury brands and start-ups, can continue to sell fuel vehicles until 2040.

At this point, the EU's "ban on burning" has finally settled and reached the point of formal implementation.

02. What will happen to the future when the "Burning Ban Order" is implemented?

The "2035 ban on the sale of fuel vehicles" can be regarded as determined from the legislative level.

The next step is how to implement it.

How the EU has a headache, we don't know.

Anyway, as soon as this news came out, everyone in China was already brainstorming what the auto market would be like after 2035.

It is known that the carbon emission requirements for automobiles are gradually narrowing, and the cost of electric vehicles is gradually decreasing as technology advances.

Excuse me, who will drive the tram and who will drive the gas car?

Untie:

At present, the number of fuel vehicles is naturally extremely large, but with the ban on the sale of traditional fuel vehicles, the vehicles of ordinary people's homes will slowly be replaced with electric vehicles sooner or later.

The remaining fuel vehicles, of course, also exist, but they are just toys for the rich, not tools of ordinary people.

What family can afford a classic car from sixty years ago? How much time does it take to maintain, how much does it cost to repair?!

Of course, buying a new car is not impossible.

Just looking at the situation in the EU, only a very small number of car manufacturers have been temporarily exempted from regulations, and on the surface, car companies with small production are actually missing the ID numbers of Ferrari, Lamborghini, Rolls-Royce, Bugatti and other super-sports and ultra-luxury brands.

This exemption order has also earned the name "Ferrari Amendment".

By that time, a new car with an internal combustion engine will certainly not be affordable for ordinary people.

Not to mention, supercars and ultra-luxury car brands have obtained short-term exemption orders, not the Shangfang sword issued by the previous dynasty that can be used until the current dynasty or even the future dynasty.

Sooner or later, Ferraris will have to "evolve", if not electrify, at least to meet zero carbon emissions.

At that time, it will be impossible to burn gasoline in these vehicles, and it would be good to give some synthetic fuel to make do with the internal combustion engine.

In the future, I don't know how much synthetic fuels will be, whether they will catch up with technological breakthroughs, at least now synthetic fuels are expensive and the output is still small.

A car that is so expensive to hit the accelerator that hurts, I think not everyone has the economic strength to drive.

Old cars are slowly eliminated, new cars cannot be bought, fuel vehicles are bound to fade out of the options of ordinary people, and gradually become a niche in the market.

Without a market, it is impossible to support the production line with an annual sales of millions of vehicles, nor can it support countless workers and upstream and downstream supply chains up and down the production line.

For traditional car companies, this is the sword of Damocles that now hangs around the neck.

Therefore, Germany knows that the price of synthetic fuels is high and now it cannot be applied at all, and it must also obtain a birth permit from the EU that "allows registration and sales".

Not more optimistic about synthetic fuels, the key is to keep the internal combustion engine.

"Millions of workers are tied to food and clothing", this phrase is not a joke, and the power of inertia is also huge and amazing.

The EU is well aware that if you want to promote new energy, you cannot wait for traditional car companies to act on their own, and you have to force it through legal and administrative incentives.

Then the role of the EU will inevitably stand on the opposite side of the major old car companies and even the big car manufacturing countries.

03. Burning ban: the beginning of change, or a harbinger of fragmentation?

In middle school history class, it was said that the major European countries after World War II chose to unite in order to gain enough strength to deal with the two superpowers of the United States and the Soviet Union.

On the premise of reconciliation between Germany and France, several major economies in Western Europe gradually strengthened cooperation, sought consensus and expanded based on similar historical traditions, cultural habits and other factors, and finally formed today's European Union.

Previously, this entity was united by economic interests with a common purpose, and the European Space Agency and the Airbus Group are two excellent examples.

Today, the EU is also bound together by a series of political consensuses. Solidarity with LGBTQ is, Russia and Ukraine are, and environmental protection issues are also.

If LGBTQ represents "freedom" and supporting Ukraine represents "democracy," then unwavering commitment to environmental protection means "leading the future."

A clean and sustainable future for humanity, and it will be the European Union that will lead that future.

As we all know, only the leader is qualified to set the standard, and all benefits will be distributed under the standard set by the leader.

We do see that the EU has made many contributions to the global environmental protection cause, but it is undeniable that the internal driving force that promotes the EU's continuous practice of environmental protection is inseparable from the pursuit of interests.

Now, the interests of "environmental protection" in the EU have begun to diverge - is it to sacrifice the current internal combustion engine for the future new energy cause, or to delay the popularization of new energy in order to preserve the current fuel vehicle industry?

Questions are decentralized to specific different countries:

Germany says that I am a big country in automobile manufacturing, and I have hundreds of billions of euros of automobile output value and hundreds of thousands of jobs to worry about;

Denmark said that I am too late to ban combustion in 2035, and I will ban the sale of fuel vehicles in 2030;

Even Germany and Italy, which both oppose the ban on burning, do not have exactly the same position and outcome.

Germany demanded that "synthetic fuels" be allowed to be registered for sale, and the EU compromised;

Italy's request to include "biofuels" (fuels made from biomass, cooking oil or animal fats) was rejected by the European Union.

Italy said that the EU "has too narrow an understanding of synthetic fuels" and said that it will not give up the fight for a "birth permit" for biofuels, but who can say whether Italy feels that the EU is uneven, only favoring Germany and does not care about itself?

Even within each country, an insurmountable gap has formed between the Conservative Party, which supports traditional industries and the Green Party, which supports environmental causes.

The current government in Germany is a three-party alliance of Social Democrats, Greens and Liberal Democratic Party, and the Social Democrats are trying to win synthetic fuels, and the Greens scold them for not being "more BB", and quickly sign the "agreement" so as not to delay the EU.

Differences can still be resolved, and what we see is the repeated pulling of the "ban on burning orders" back and forth; If differences cannot be resolved, they will turn into divisions on the way to intensification.

Just like the United Kingdom feels that its national interests are irreconcilable within the EU, it directly chooses to vote to leave the EU.

If Germany also feels that the "EU is too deceptive" to choose to leave the EU one day, it is difficult to say whether the EU, which is supported only by France, will face the crisis of dissolution.

Of course, the president's divergent thinking is really a bit far-fetched.

What is more likely to happen to the "ban on burning" is still as this netizen said: