150,000 Tesla is coming, really don't leave a way for oil trucks to live

Old Fox thinks: In the future, a large number of new Tesla owners will enter the circle.

According to media reports: Relevant sources revealed that Tesla's new entry-level model, the Model Y in the form of a small size, the annual production of new cars is planned to be 4 million units, and all factories around the world will participate in production.

*Image source 36 Krypton

Among them, the North American plant will share 2 million units, and the Berlin and Shanghai plants will each have 1 million units. At present, each plant is preparing for the start of production and aiming to expand production capacity, and the specific exposure of the new car will be one year later.

To be honest, the accuracy of the news is still quite high, which basically confirms the release content of Tesla's 2023 investor conference and Musk's previous speech.

Public information shows that the manufacturing cost of Tesla's next model will be halved compared to Model 3, and will be put into the market after the mass production of Cybertruck pickup trucks, the specific time is around 2024.

Let's first clarify what is the concept of an annual production capacity target of 4 million vehicles? As the global sales champion, Corolla sold 1.12 million units in 2022, it can be seen that Tesla's goal is still quite ambitious, once achieved, it will not only bring unprecedented impact to the new energy market, but also may break the fuel vehicle market pattern.

However, for the speed of this new car, Tesla can achieve mass production in time, the old fox is still more skeptical.

According to the normal rhythm of new car promotion, the specific level, spy photos and pricing range of the new car should already have clear information, but the official cover of this new car is still relatively tight, is there a difficulty in the manufacturing process? In this issue, let's have a good chat.

The more Tesla sells, the cheaper it gets, how much does a low-cost car cost?

Regarding the difference between the new domestic forces and Tesla, the summary of netizens is quite in place, "domestic brands are getting more and more expensive, but Tesla is getting cheaper and cheaper."

In addition to the difference in positioning from low to high and high to low, Tesla's biggest advantage is the ability to control costs, which we have analyzed many times before, so I will not repeat it, in short, after the profit of a bicycle exceeds Mercedes-Benz and BMW, compared with most of the new power brands that are in the loss, Tesla is grasping the initiative in pricing.

At the same time, from the positioning point of view, Tesla already has high-end models such as Model Y and Model X, under the considerable profit of bicycles, Tesla needs to expand sales, and a more people-friendly volume level is obviously a pragmatic choice.

It is also in line with Musk's vision of "getting more people to drive pure electric cars". As for the selling price, referring to Tesla's current average cost of $36,000 per vehicle manufacturing, the manufacturing cost of a new car is $18,000.

Therefore, many foreign media speculate that the price of the new car may be around 150,000 yuan. But Musk then debunked the rumor: Although the cost is cut in half, it does not mean that the price of the new car will be reduced by half.

Even if the low-cost car is launched, Tesla still maintains a "little tsundere", from the perspective of operation space, the old fox guesses: the price of this new car may be about 180,000 yuan.

In order to prepare for the possible cold sales encounter, the subsequent official drop of 2 or 30,000, the effect is similar to the Model 3/Y that has been dropped, instantly feeling super value, and stimulating a wave of sales. Of course, these are all afterwords.

Who is more injured between new energy and oil vehicles, and low-cost cars will be difficult to produce?

Today, no one will underestimate the power of new energy, from some time ago, by the price reduction of new energy, triggered by the traditional fuel vehicle "table-type" price war, it can be seen that "users who like oil vehicles, will not buy pure electricity" view, is obviously untenable.

*Image source: Tesla entry-level new car spy photos

According to the mid-level positioning of Model 3/Y, Tesla's new entry-level model, that is, compact SUV, combined with the price range of 15-180,000 yuan, is basically close to or even lower than the threshold of joint venture traditional oil vehicles such as CR-V and RAV4.

It also continues BYD's "oil and electricity at the same price" route, and the lethality is clear at a glance. At the same time, it is precisely because the cost control ability is not as good as Tesla, the operation of low-end models has no advantages, and the new domestic forces are seizing more than 200,000 markets.

This also leaves a large vacuum for Tesla. From the point of view of positioning, level and attributes, Tesla's entry-level model may not have direct competitors.

In addition, according to the "twin" model of Model 3 and Model Y, Tesla may launch an entry-level sedan in the future, directly entering the lower market range, and the impact on the entire car market can be imagined.

But why is the news of the new car so tight? Lao Hu believes that if you want to reduce the cost by half, the smooth mass production of 4680 battery is the key, compared with the existing 2710 battery, 4680 battery has improved performance and reduced the cost by 46%.

Combined with other manufacturing processes, including reducing the number of parts, the goal of reducing the cost of the whole vehicle is achieved.

According to the latest foreign media reports: Tesla has recently hired a large number of experts to overcome the technical problems of the mass production of 4680 batteries, so can the new car be mass-produced smoothly? How strong is the cost control ability? How big of a surprise will the price be? The core depends on the mass production progress of the 4680 battery.

As Tesla's battery supplier, Panasonic Energy recently announced a large-scale expansion of its workforce, with plans to hire 5,000 additional people worldwide by March 2026, or prepare for the mass production of 4680 batteries in advance.

Old Fox guessed: The new cheap car in 2024 may not appear as promised, but it should not be too long, leaving other new energy and traditional car companies There is not much time?

*Image source: Tesla's production and sales data for the first quarter of 2023

In fact, Tesla's future is not bright, after the release of sales data in the first quarter of this year, Tesla's stock price fell sharply by 6%, and its market value lost $40.2 billion overnight.

Despite the record high production and sales efficiency, investors believe that according to the annual production capacity target of 2 million vehicles, Tesla has not met expectations, and the moderate sales growth brought about by the price reduction strategy will eventually erode Tesla's profit margin.

Half seawater, half flame, after the big price reduction, Tesla's high-end models performed poorly, in the first quarter, Model S/X delivered a total of 10,695 units, the price of the main sales model continues to fall, the interior luxury is insufficient, further seize the low-end market, some foreign media even questioned: Is Tesla a luxury brand?

Old Fox briefly summarized: Lower and lower prices are undoubtedly the most powerful weapon to expand sales, but after winning the market, Tesla's brand gold content is declining.

The hidden worry in the future is, when the cost control ability of other competitors becomes stronger, how to make up for the brand premium ability lost by Tesla?

A few days ago, Li Bin said more bluntly: In the Chinese market, Tesla does not have pricing power. Compared with competitors with close strength, Tesla's current price is indeed low.

*Image source: Foreign media draw a hypothetical picture of Tesla's low-cost car

Regarding this new entry-level low-cost car, do you think the new car will arrive in 2024? How much does it cost to be attractive enough?

How much impact will the sharp decline in the low-end market have on Tesla's brand tonality and mid-to-high-end models?

Resources:

Tesla first-quarter production and sales data, Tesla investor conference, Teslamag.de

Editor: Ze Tian