The sustained prosperity of human civilization comes from the birth of new life.
In recent years, however, the U.S. fertility rate has fallen to a low point, and the number of births has been declining, at one point below the replacement level needed to maintain population levels.
(The replacement level is the level of fertility required to maintain population stability.) If the fertility rate falls below this level, then the total population will gradually decrease. ）
According to the latest report from the National Center for Health Statistics, the birth rate in the United States continues to decline, falling to its lowest level in more than 40 years.
In 2023, a total of 3.59 million babies were born in the United States, down 2% from 3.66 million in 2022. This is the lowest level since 1979, when the number of births was 3.4 million.
The total fertility rate in the United States peaked after World War II at an average of 3.75 births per woman in her lifetime, but has since fallen significantly to about 1.617, well below the replacement level of 2.1.
This downward trend has raised concerns about the future demographics and economic development of the United States. If the low fertility tide is not controlled, the development of human society may come to a standstill.
Musk is very concerned about the global population decline, and he posted on X last week: "Any country with a fertility rate below the replacement level will eventually cease to exist." ”
He also said in a recent interview with X: "Demographic collapse is a very serious problem, and I hope more people will be aware of it." The current fertility rate is well below what is needed to maintain the current level of civilization. ”
Musk's remarks are not groundless. According to the United Nations, fertility rates in many countries around the world are already below the replacement level, which means that if effective measures are not taken, the population of these countries will gradually decline, which in turn affects many aspects of the economy, society and culture.
Why is the U.S. fertility rate falling sharply?
Benjamin Guzzo, director of the University of North Carolina Population Center, said in an interview with the media: "People are more rational about whether or not to have children. A lot of people want to have children, but their decision is more of a 'yes, I want to have children, but not now'. ”
Studies have pointed out that the decline in fertility may be related to a variety of factors, including economic pressure, higher education levels, the importance of women's career development, and the pursuit of quality of life.
First, in modern society, the value of an individual's time is increasing as labor productivity increases and more career opportunities emerge. For many aspiring individuals, leaving the workforce to raise children means lost income, missed promotions, and a high opportunity cost.
As a result, people's values have been reshaped, i.e., from focusing on the number of offspring to focusing on the quality of parenting. They are more inclined to earn more money to improve the quality of life of their children than to have more children. At the same time, they believe that investing in their children's future, such as education, will lead to higher returns.
For women in particular, this trade-off has largely influenced their reproductive decisions, with far-reaching implications for the demographics of society as a whole.
In addition, people now have a wide variety of leisure options. Dinks can go shopping at Tesco, take a weekend fitness class, play video games, or go on vacation abroad. They are more inclined to enjoy the leisure life that comes with double income than to devote their time to childcare.
The U.S. birth rate continues to decline, hitting a new low in more than 40 years
There are also some characteristics of the U.S. population data. For example, fertility rates are declining for women in most age groups in the United States, with the exception of women in the age groups of 35-39 and 40-44.
If the number of children in a country decreases, the future of that country will also be in jeopardy. The problem of more deaths than births in the United States each year is imminent.
Among the different racial and ethnic groups, only Hispanics saw a rebound in fertility.
Some media pointed out that since 2007, the total fertility rate in the United States has been far below the replacement level, so some of the immigration policies adopted by the Biden administration may be to deal with the demographic problems caused by low fertility.
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