Author丨Pan Lei
Editor丨Sea waist
题图丨Midjourney
"[FSD landing in China] may soon be realized." Recently, Tesla CEO Elon Musk made an "official statement" on FSD's entry into China when replying to a question from a Chinese Tesla owner on social media "X" (formerly Twitter).
FSD stands for "Full Self-Driving" and is the highest level in Tesla's self-driving sequence – the other two are the base version (AP) and the enhanced driver assistance (EAP).
Currently, FSD has been upgraded to the V12.3 end-to-end version, which has removed the name "beta" and is fully dependent on neural networks and data-driven.
According to CITIC Securities, a more anthropomorphic driving style has made the moment for FSD to promote ChatGPT for high-level autonomous driving approaching.
A number of other organizations have expressed similar views, that is, high-level autonomous driving is about to usher in an "inflection point".
But at about the same time, the price of Tesla's FSD in the United States was reduced by 33.3% from $12,000 to $8,000, and the price of a monthly subscription was also reduced to $99 from $199, while customers also got a free one-month trial service.
It is worth mentioning that this is not the first time that FSD has cut prices.
Until August 2023, FSD will sell for $15,000 in North America.
Musk believed at the time that the price of FSD was "very low", and if it could truly achieve "full self-driving", Tesla's market value would increase significantly.
It is not yet known how much FSD will cost after it enters China, but judging from the current price trend of the software, it is likely that it will not be higher than that in North America.
So far, apart from Huawei's ADS2.0, it is difficult to say that Chinese users have developed the habit of paying for a smart driving system – whether it is "fully self-driving" or not.
FSD can make people sleep in the car?
Elon Musk, for his part, is often active on social media, but he doesn't personally answer a question from a Chinese Tesla owner.
The owner asked Musk - "When will FSD land in China, and when will the new reversing assistance be pushed to Tesla HW3.0 owners in China?"
Tesla's CEO's reply, although still unclear, also indicates that FSD is indeed moving forward with related matters.
In fact, since November 2023, news about FSD's entry into China has begun to circulate.
At that time, a new owner noticed that a description of FSD test information appeared in Tesla's user manual.
According to public information, FSD supports high-speed NOA (navigation assisted driving) and urban NOA, as well as automatic parking, intelligent summoning and other functions, even in complex road conditions, many times without the intervention of human drivers.
According to Musk's shareholder meeting at Tesla, FSD beta users have driven a total of 190 million miles (about 306 million kilometers), and its safety performance will be 10 times that of human drivers in the future.
Back in 2019, Musk said that FSD is so reliable that drivers can even go to sleep – but he strongly advised drivers not to sleep while driving.
In a live broadcast last year, he claimed that FSD no longer relies on program code to recognize concepts such as roads and pedestrians, and leaves it all to the neural network to make its own judgments.
But Tesla's CEO stressed that FSD can almost do "self-driving", but it still needs to be improved.
As a result, FSD has become one of the few trump cards in Tesla's hands that can still attract Chinese users.
In addition, Tesla's landing FSD in China seems to have been laid out for a long time.
For example, as early as 2021, Tesla's data center in Shanghai has realized localized storage for its Chinese business, thus meeting the general rules of regulation.
It is worth mentioning that policies related to autonomous driving are also blowing warm winds.
In May 2023, the Shanghai Economic and Information Commission said that it would promote the layout of Tesla's autonomous driving business in Shanghai.
Considering the relationship between Shanghai and Tesla, where the latter has its only gigafactory, FSD's entry into the Chinese market is a certainty.
At the end of last year, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Notice on Carrying out the Pilot Work of Intelligent Networked Vehicle Access and Road Access", which clearly stated that L3 and L4 intelligent networked vehicles with mass production conditions can be carried out on the road in a limited area.
Self-driving makes Tesla worth 10 trillion?
It's no secret that Tesla is betting on self-driving technology.
In fact, for years, Elon Musk has emphasized the importance of autonomous driving to the automotive industry, as well as what it means for Tesla.
Back in an internal meeting in 2022, Musk wanted to build a Robotaxi that "has no mirrors, accelerator or brake pedals, and a steering wheel."
He stressed that he does not want a "half-" Robotaxi and that Tesla must "afford to take the risk", that is, to gamble on self-driving.
The crazy CEO believes that Robotaxi will change everything and make Tesla a $10 trillion company.
Almost a year later, Morgan Stanley made a similar point, but with a lower tone — for example, by referring to the size of the self-driving market rather than the value of Tesla.
The well-known investment bank said in a research report that Tesla's supercomputer "Dojo" will bring Tesla a market capitalization increase of up to $500 billion.
Morgan Stanley's report worked.
Tesla's stock price skyrocketed by 10.09%, adding nearly $80 billion to its market capitalization.
At that time, Tesla's market capitalization was close to $870 billion.
But now, more than half a year later, Tesla's market capitalization is only about $450 billion.
In August, Tesla is said to release the Robotaxi.
But now FSD's price cut shows that the prospect of self-driving no longer looks like it can bring an extra halo to Tesla.
Musk's explanation for FSD's price reduction is that the price reduction is to allow more users to try the system.
"I think that over time, the price of FSD will grow in direct proportion to its value, and the current low price is only temporary".
He also said that Tesla is willing to license other car companies to use FSD technology.
The "ethical" puzzle has been largely solved
As far as the Chinese market is concerned, including users and investment institutions, there is a general optimism about the implementation of FDS, and believe that it will become a "catfish" in the intelligent driving market - the same role that Tesla was given after setting up a factory in Shanghai.
Guotai Junan believes that FSD's entry into the Chinese market will help the rapid development of the domestic autonomous driving industry.
According to a research report released by CITIC Securities, FSD is expected to boost consumers' willingness to pay.
This points out the pain point of the current intelligent driving market in China - except for Huawei ADS2.0, it is difficult for the intelligent driving systems of most car companies to realize the charging model, and most of them are directly "sent" to users.
But for a long time, self-driving systems, including Tesla, have faced "ethical" dilemmas.
In other words, who is responsible for a traffic accident with a self-driving car?
In August 2022, Baidu's "Carrot Run" Robotaxi was rear-ended by a truck, and the rear car was judged to be fully responsible.
Robotaxi crash scene
In 2023, the Carrot Run's Robotaxi slashed another normal vehicle, but paused to drive away from the scene.
This raises a new question - who is responsible after the driverless car "hit-and-run"?
According to the Regulations on the Administration of Intelligent Connected Vehicles in the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, which came into effect in Shenzhen on August 1, 2022, if a driver's intelligent networked vehicle violates the road traffic safety violation, the traffic management department of the public security organ will deal with the driver in accordance with the law.
If a fully autonomous intelligent networked vehicle violates the road traffic safety situation during the period when there is no driver, the traffic management department of the public security organ shall deal with the owner and manager of the vehicle in accordance with the law.
In addition, if a driver's ICV causes damage in a traffic accident and the ICV is the responsibility of the ICV, the driver shall be liable for compensation.
If a fully autonomous intelligent networked vehicle causes damage in a traffic accident without a driver, and the intelligent networked vehicle is the responsibility of one party to the intelligent networked vehicle, the owner or manager of the vehicle shall be liable for compensation.
On November 17, 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other four departments jointly issued the "Notice on Carrying out the Pilot Work on the Access and Road Access of Intelligent Connected Vehicles", which also clarified the attribution of responsibility for high-level intelligent driving accidents for the first time.
That is, if an accident occurs if the autonomous driving system is not activated, the responsibility is divided according to the current regulations.
If the autonomous driving system is activated, the pilot enterprise or user shall submit relevant certificates, and shall bear corresponding responsibilities if they fail to submit them.
Intelligent networked vehicles can be used as the object of liability determination in accidents, and the pilot user entity shall bear the liability for compensation according to the liability determination.
This basically clarifies the liability of autonomous vehicles on the road.
However, it should be pointed out that the "Circular" jointly issued by the four departments is only a "pilot" at present.
Is FSD a safety hazard?
For Tesla's FSD, the trouble is not only ethical issues, but also regulatory problems.
At the end of last year, Tesla recalled more than 2.03 million electric vehicles.
According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), the reason for the recall is a safety hazard for the autonomous driving system.
This is the second time Tesla has recalled a car last year for the same thing.
In a recall in early 2023, Tesla recalled about 360,000 cars with "Full Self-Driving Beta" software installed.
The California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) also believes that Tesla has engaged in "deceptive advertising" when it uses the terms "self-driving" (Autopilot and FSD).
In 2022, DMV even took Tesla to court, also citing "false advertising" in autonomous driving.
California has also passed a bill prohibiting the inclusion of "self-driving" descriptions in smart driving advertisements.
Regarding Tesla's release of Robotaxi in August 2024, DMV also said that it has not received Tesla's application to conduct related business in California.
But judging from Musk's statement, it is expected that none of this will affect the smooth entry of FSD into China.
The only suspense at the moment is the price.
According to Tesla's official website, the price of its "enhanced automatic driving assistance function" in China is 32,000 yuan, and the price of "full self-driving capability" is 64,000 yuan.
This price is about $8,800, which is close to the price of FSD in the United States.
Correspondingly, on the eve of the 2023 Shanghai Auto Show, Huawei released ADS 2.0, with a one-time purchase of 36,000 yuan, an annual subscription of 7,200 yuan, and a monthly subscription of 720 yuan.
Whether FSD can continue to play a "catfish" in the intelligent driving market remains to be verified by time.