Abstract: Sailing against the tide.
In the first quarter of this year, the price reduction tide of Tesla and fuel vehicles hit, and many domestic new energy vehicle companies have encountered a "black opening", and in the key year of fighting for tickets for 2025, this impact accelerated the differentiation of new energy vehicle companies.
In May, new energy manufacturers announced their April sales one after another. After the baptism of the first quarter, how did the manufacturers have had in April?
Nine car companies rose for three consecutive months
At present, the 18 new energy vehicle companies that have announced sales have an upward trend.
According to the year-on-year caliber, 11 of the 18 car companies can be compared over the same period, of which only Xpeng, Zerorun and Cialis Automobile (mainly in the Qianjie series) showed a year-on-year decline, and the other 8 all increased year-on-year. Among them, Li Auto had the fastest year-on-year growth rate, as high as 516.3%. In addition, there is a year-on-year growth rate of 301.6%; Extreme Krypton increased by 279.1% year-on-year; Lantu increased by 210% year-on-year; BAIC Blue Valley (Extreme Fox) increased by 136.4% year-on-year.
Due to the supply chain difficulties encountered in the first half of last year, raw material rises and other problems, the above problems have been alleviated this year, so it is not surprising that this month's year-on-year increase occurred.
According to the month-on-month perspective, 17 of the 18 car companies can be compared month-on-month, of which 9 have risen for three consecutive months; There is 1 company that has risen for two consecutive months. The fastest sequential growth was Leap Motors, which increased 41.4% sequentially. In addition, Hechuang Auto increased by 35.3% month-on-month; Li Auto increased by 23.3% month-on-month; Extreme Krypton increased by 21.6% month-on-month.
Only Skyworth, Deep Blue, Cialis Automobile, SMART, NIO and BAIC Blue Valley fell month-on-month. BAIC Blue Valley fell 53.7% month-on-month, the largest month-on-month decline of automakers. NIO followed with a 35.8% month-on-month decline. Smart decreased 25.7% sequentially; Cialis Automotive decreased 19.7% month-on-month.
The median sales volume of the 17 automakers was 7,079 units in April, and the median in March was 7,002 units, with an average of 21,164 units sold and 20,970 units in March. There were year-on-year and month-on-month increases, although the increase was not large.
This is a relatively positive signal, the impact of the shock wave at the beginning of the year is still there, but domestic manufacturers have shown very strong resilience.
Resilience may also be related to the growth of the industry as a whole, with data from the Passenger Association showing that from April 1 to 16, the new energy vehicle market retailed 223,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 89%, exceeding the overall growth rate of the passenger car market. The new energy market, which is in a period of growth, can be described as rising.
At such a stage, sales must not only rise, but also rise fast. However, from the current trend, the trend of differentiation between manufacturers is becoming more and more obvious.
The first and second echelons are basically finalized
The stronger the stronger the momentum continued this month.
Among all manufacturers, BYD has always been the only one, the only car company that sells more than 200,000 vehicles a month, and there is an order of magnitude gap compared with other car companies. Since February, BYD's sales have continued to increase month-on-month. Even BYD's luxury car brand Denza has sold more than 10,000 for two consecutive months.
Under BYD, SAIC, Geely, and Changan's monthly sales of new energy vehicles are also between 30,000 and 50,000 units, but these three institutions are multi-brand strategies, and the specific sales volume of new energy sub-brands has not been disclosed.
Since last December, Aian and Ideal have gradually entered the second tier. The sales/deliveries of these two car companies have reached record highs this month, with Aion's sales exceeding 40,000 for the second consecutive month and 25,000 for the second consecutive month.
If this trend can be maintained, the two car companies will lock in two places in the second echelon.
The first and second echelons not only have good sales, but also have a strong growth momentum. The third and fourth tiers are still very struggling. Of the 18 automakers that announced sales in April, only Nezha and Denza had monthly sales of between 10,000 and 20,000 units, down by one from the previous month (comparable caliber).
Specific to car companies, Nezha Automobile still delivered more than 10,000 this month, but the 10% month-on-month growth rate is not fast. Originally, the third echelon of NIO turned downward, falling from monthly sales of more than 10,000 to only 6,658 vehicles. Xiaopeng and Zero Run are recovering and still haven't returned to the third echelon.
Car companies in their infancy, even if the base is small year-on-year and month-on-month, has not shown significant growth. Zhiji sold only 2 more cars in April than in March; Lantu sold 312 more units; Skyworth Automobile even declined month-on-month.
It can be seen that the higher the ranking and the higher the sales volume of the car companies, the faster the growth rate, the lower the ranking of the car companies, the more fluctuating the performance, the trend of the Matthew effect is obvious.
If car companies are fighting for tickets in 2025, then at present, Aion and Ideal are very high car companies, and the performance of other car companies has not seen a clear signal at least in April.
New forces: 2023 sales lag
Many car companies announced ambitious sales targets at the beginning of the year. In 2023, BYD plans to reach 3 million units, and Aion strives to sell 500,000 units, with Ideal 300,000, Nezha 250,000, NIO 245,000, Xiaopeng and Zerorun about 200,000. With the announcement of sales in April, the progress of these automakers has also improved.
Looking at the macro, the sales progress of car companies in the first four months is generally lagging behind, and the past third of 2023 will pass, but the sales of car companies are generally still far from 33%. In particular, the new power car companies have a lower degree of completion than traditional car companies' new energy brands.
In terms of subdivision, Ideal, BYD, and Aion are car companies that are progressing smoothly, completing 26.1%, 25.4% and 24.3% respectively, considering that the consumer market will further recover in the second half of the year, it is still very promising to complete the target. Among them, the ideal is undoubtedly the most positive signal of the new forces, although the target is the highest among the new force car companies, but it is the car company most likely to achieve the expected goal.
Zerorun and Xpeng's sales progressed the slowest. None of the two car companies delivered more than 10,000 in the first four months, which seriously dragged down the progress, and only 9.6% and 12.7% respectively were completed.
Although the completion degree of Zerorun is lower, the upward trend is obvious, and after adjusting the price in March and releasing the extended C11, sales jumped significantly. Xpeng's situation is relatively grim, and after the P7i began to be delivered, it did not significantly drive sales, and the delivery volume in April was only 77 more than in March.
Nezha and NIO performed decently in the first four months, completing 14.9% and 15.4% respectively. However, the difference is that Nezha has maintained an upward trend, while NIO has been more volatile, with sales continuing to decline month-on-month in March and April, and the pressure to achieve sales targets continues to increase.
New brands of traditional automakers: Most failed to extend the growth trend in March
In March, the new energy brands of many traditional car companies generally showed a high-spirited trend, but this month, this momentum has diverged.
Extreme Krypton shows signs of standing out. Sales in April stood at 8,000 units, with a compound growth rate of 37.5% in the first four months. Considering that the low-priced model Extreme Krypton X has not yet been officially delivered, the re-realization of monthly sales of more than 10,000 may be in May.
In addition to Extreme Krypton, the joint venture brand Hechuang Automobile delivered 4,193 units, which also stood on a new level. In addition, some brands have also guaranteed a certain growth. Lantu, a subsidiary of Dongfeng Motor, delivered 3,339 units in April, an increase of 312 units month-on-month. Zhiji sold 2009 units in April, an increase of 2 units month-on-month.
However, the performance of some brands has not been able to continue the growth trend. BAIC Blue Valley's sales suddenly exceeded 10,000 in March, and this month it turned downward, with 4,768 units sold month-on-month. Changan's Deep Blue delivered 7,756 units in April, down 9.5% month-on-month, and failed to extend its strong performance in March. Smart sales also fell to 4,390 units this month, down 25.7% month-on-month. Cialis Motors struggled even more, failing to reach 3,000 units this month, down 19.7% month-on-month, and even less than the M5's first full delivery month.
It can be clearly seen that April is already very obvious "a few joys and a few sorrows". Moreover, sales volume and price often do not show a clear positive correlation, and product and brand recognition is playing an increasingly important role. The low price is still effective, such as the price reduction of zero run, which has indeed worked. However, the high price is not impossible to have a bright performance in sales, the same price of more than 300,000, ideal and extreme krypton situation is positive.
Key enterprises
Ideal - the road to product is king?
When Li Xiang shared his entrepreneurial experience, he said that his specialty from 0 to 1 lies in "the product ability of ideal cars to face family user groups".
The product capabilities built around this vertical segment allow ideals to find the foundation of their lives. According to the sales data of the Passenger Association in March, the ideal L7, L8 and L9 are among the top 10 new energy SUV sales, and the number of models is second only to BYD. The ideal is almost unaffected by market fluctuations.
Starting in April, the ideal L7 air began to deliver, according to the estimate, from this product, the ideal monthly delivery of more than 30,000 vehicles is the guarantee.
Next, pure electric models, less than 300,000 models will appear one after another, perhaps only the ideal production capacity can be blocked.
NIO – calling the "Alps"
From last year to this year, NIO's sales have been up and down. It is difficult to sustain monthly sales of more than 10,000 for a long time.
Li Bin has said that the current product portfolio can support NIO's sales target of 30,000 vehicles per month. But this month's sales of only 6658, sending NIO to the bottom of "Wei Xiaoli", but also shattered this idea.
It is not reasonable to evaluate NIO based solely on sales volume, after all, its products are more expensive. But the reality is that NIO's sales are supported by the lowest-priced ET5. According to the data of the passenger association in March, the ET5 is already the only model on the list of NIO. For other models, it is becoming difficult to make the list. Such a product configuration may hit 30,000 vehicles in some months, but it may hover around 10,000 vehicles in more months.
The competitiveness of ET5 also proves that with NIO's current brand image and product appeal, it is still very marketable to low-price layout.
As one of the earliest new forces in car manufacturing, NIO will not be satisfied with the high-end market although its pricing is high. In this critical stage of seizing the market, whether it is "Alps" or "Fireflies", it has become very urgent.
Nezha - can GT carry the banner?
In April, Nezha delivered 11,080 vehicles, an increase of 993 units month-on-month, although it exceeded 10,000, but the growth rate was modest.
The sales stratification of Nezha cars is obvious, and the low-priced U and V are still the absolute workhorses, accounting for 77% of sales. Nezha S delivered 2,237 units in April, an increase of only 1% month-on-month, in a state of slow growth.
The key to affecting the delivery volume of Nezha S, perhaps production capacity is the key reason, but behind the production capacity is the product structure.
In April, Nezha's first two-door four-seat pure electric sports car GT model began to be delivered, with a price range of 178,800-226,800 yuan, which is a lower price segment for the coupe, but for Nezha, it plays an important role in enriching the price level above U and V.
Impact on the price range of more than 200,000 yuan, Nezha has made progress, but the progress is not much, but the main products continue to be around about 100,000 yuan, there is no substantial improvement in operation and brand image, Nezha GT is the key product to optimize the product structure.
The GT was delivered in less than two weeks, with 295 units delivered, which is currently indicative. May will be the month of full delivery of the GT, and this month may be a key cycle for Nezha sales to be variable.
Extreme Krypton - the expected X
Zeekr sales continued to rise in April, with 8,101 units up 21.6% month-on-month.
The strength of Extreme Krypton is that its current 001 and 009 models are more than 300,000, and the average selling price of Extreme Krypton even exceeds that of NIO, and 009 even starts at 500,000.
In the fourth quarter of last year, Extreme Krypton achieved an average sales of more than 10,000 with only two models, and in the first quarter of this year, Extreme Krypton suffered a blow, but in the first four months, it can stand on a new level almost every month. Extreme Krypton 001 has always been able to rank among the sales list of the Passenger Association. Such a performance reminds people of the ideal ONE of the year.
In April, Zeekr released the X model, and the starting price was further reduced to 189,800 yuan. It may be difficult to go from low prices to high prices, but moving from high prices to low prices will boost sales significantly. Brands such as NIO and Ideal have been confirmed.
Backed by Geely, Extreme Krypton has mass production capabilities, which means that in the second half of this year, Extreme Krypton is likely to become an important disruptor.
Co-creation - unintentional insertion of willows into the shade?
At the beginning, GAC and NIO cooperated to establish Hechuang Automobile, which was not favored by the outside world.
GAC has Aion, NIO has its own brand, and Hechuang belongs to the role of daddy and mother. However, with the completion of capital and share expansion in 2021 and the introduction of Pearl River Investment Management Group, NIO gradually faded out, and Hechuang slowly came out.
In April, Hechuang Automobile delivered 4,193 units, a month-on-month increase of 35.3%, making it one of the fastest growing automakers among the announced sales models (which is also related to the small base in March), and achieved a new breakthrough.
At this year's Shanghai Auto Show, Hechuang announced the MPV model Hechuang V09, which carries LiDAR, supports tide reform, and has relatively differentiated products, avoiding the most competitive product line, which may also be the key to Hechuang leaping to a higher level.
Summary:
In April, the gap between car companies was further widening, and some car companies faced a grim situation; Some car companies have already played their cards and wait for market changes; Some car companies have released positive signals. Against the tide, this year is destined to be a critical stage where even growth is not fast enough and may fall behind.
Brief report: