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More and more young people are afraid of having babies, and the alarm of the aging Chinese population is sounding.
In 2024 alone, only 9.54 million newborns will be born in China, not even breaking the 10 million mark.
This result has made many people worry about China's future population, and the professor at Xiamen University even asked: What is going on with the reduction of pensions without birth?
Fertility dilemma: from "fine birth" to "dare not give birth"
In the era of family planning, many families even did not hesitate to pay the "excess birth fee" to give birth to a second or third child.
But with the passage of time, China's fertility policy has gradually relaxed, evolving from the two-child policy to the three-child policy, but there is no previous "baby boom", what is going on?
According to the information released by the National Health Commission, it can be seen that in 2016, the second year of the country's open two-child policy, China's newborns ushered in a period of upsurge.
However, such a long time has not achieved good results, since the "warming" in 2017, the fertility rate of newborns has gone downhill.
More and more young people are reluctant to marry and have children, and even some young couples who have given birth to a family with one child are reluctant to give birth to a second child.
Obviously, when the policy did not allow it in the past, it was crazy to give birth, but now that the "three-child policy" is open, but there is no willingness to give birth?
In fact, the most fundamental reason is that the pressure of childbirth is too great, and a young couple needs a lot of financial support to get married.
The first is that you must buy a house and a car when you get married, and the gradually rising housing prices and the endless stream of new vehicles have increased a lot of burden for a small family.
Faced with such a predicament, it is natural that many young people choose to start a business first and then start a family, or simply postpone their plans to marry and have children.
And most of the normal situation for those young couples who have married now is: the husband and wife are married, although they have a car and a house, but they still need to face a huge mortgage and car loan.
You know, now that the social environment is becoming more and more complex, more and more young people are facing the dilemma of not being able to find a job, being easily fired, and already burdened with large loans, where can they have too much experience raising a child?
In addition to the rising cost of marriage, the cost of raising a newborn is also worrying.
Starting from the most basic pregnancy, pregnancy tests, pregnancy supplements, production costs, confinement costs, etc. are a large amount of expenses, and this is the birth of a child: milk powder, diapers, baby products, toys, etc. also need to continue to invest.
Finally, when the child grows up, as a parent of the child, he always maintains a belief: the child must not lose at the starting line.
As a result, the high cost of education: cram schools, interest classes, and even improving living standards have become a financial burden on the parents of children, and many young people have developed a fear of childbirth.
Not only that, but the current workplace is not friendly to women, and many companies are reluctant to hire unmarried and childless women, for fear that they will delay their jobs due to production.
In the face of various factors, many young couples have chosen to live a "Dink" life and are reluctant to have a baby.
Pension threat: it will rise if it is born, and it will be lowered if it is not born
After seeing the current situation, Zhao Yanjing, a professor at Xiamen University, stepped forward and proposed a two-tiered solution: the future pension will be issued according to the number of children born to the couple, and if there are no children, the future pension will be reduced.
Perhaps Professor Zhao Yanjing's plan is the result of his careful consideration: to use pensions and the quality of life of the elderly to "coerce" young couples to have babies.
If this generation of young couples does not have children, then what awaits them in the future may be a "low-quality, low-pension" old age.
Although Zhao Yanjing's idea seems very "feasible" at first glance, a closer look will show that Professor Zhao Yanjing's idea is too "idealistic".
The first is that if a young couple does not choose to have children, then their wages may accumulate over the decades, and there is no need to worry about the "lower pension" in old age.
In addition, not everyone in China has a pension, and a large number of groups are groups without pensions.
For them, whether it is to raise or reduce the pension, it does not matter, there is no impact, Professor Zhao Yanjing's statement cannot be established at all.
Professor Zhao Yanjing's suggestion to come forward instantly aroused many boycotts from netizens, and even received a lot of overly fierce criticism.
Maybe Professor Zhao Yanjing's original idea was good, but the mistake of this "solution" is that it is detached from the most basic truth and cannot be established at all.
In fact, Zhao Yanjing panicked and put forward a "solution" that did not understand the people's feelings, but behind it is that China is experiencing a big "catastrophe".
If the number of newborns continues to decline year after year, then in the future, as the post-20s and post-30s grow up, the first problem China faces is the shortage of labor force.
Mobility simply cannot meet the most real needs of the market, and national productivity may be weakened as a result, limiting the development of national industries.
In addition, with the deepening of the aging of the population, the mainland's pension problem and medical insurance costs have become a heavy burden for China's economy, and the pressure on the national economy has increased.
It is urgent for the country to solve the problem of "unwillingness to have children", but the current cost of raising children is an economic burden for young people.
According to the release of the "China Fertility Cost Report 2024 Edition", it can be seen that the average cost of raising a babbling child to a bachelor's degree graduate is nearly 700,000.
Such a high cost is a significant financial burden for most families, and many newly married families are discouraged.
It can be seen that if you want to completely break the fertility dilemma that you need to face now, it will not work to simply follow Professor Zhao Yanjing's ideas.
If you really want to completely change the current situation of "not daring to give birth", in fact, the most fundamental solution is to think from the perspective of contemporary young people.
Reduce the cost of childbirth for young people, reduce the cost of raising babies for young people, and increase support for young people......
It's like the birth subsidy for newborns in Luliang, Shanxi, and the birth bonus in Nanling Village, Baiyun District, Guangzhou...... It is not simply shouting slogans, but rewarding couples who have children with real money.
Perhaps only by really starting from the perspective of young people and solving their real worries can the problem of "not daring to give birth" be solved.
Once a large number of newborns are born, then the problem of population aging will naturally be solved, which is not a perfect solution?
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