Xiaopeng and the ideal are on the bar

In the first half of the year, I like to swagger the ideal stall.

The day before yesterday, Ideal announced the sales of cars for the previous week as usual, and at the same time made a table of sales of new forces in the industry. After some comparison, it continues to be a familiar formula, and its own sales continue to be far ahead.

So of course some people are not happy.

The first to jump out was Huang Honglin, general manager of product marketing of Xpeng Motors, who repeatedly sent a circle of friends to question the false data of Xpeng's weekly sales on the list, and then Liu Yilin, senior director of autonomous driving products, also joined the condemnation.

However, they did not report their sales figures, which makes people feel that the refutation is somewhat weak.

In the first half of the year, Xiaopeng, which is in the most volatile competitive price segment, still saw a year-on-year decline in sales after adjusting its strategic structure and product layout.

In order to stop the decline, Xpeng launched a blockbuster new SUV - G6 in early June and created momentum for it, priced at only 209,900 yuan, which is much cheaper than the benchmark Model Y. It is revealed that the G6 pre-sale quickly accumulated 25,000 orders within 72 hours of its release.

For Xiaopeng, who is obsessed with fighting a turnaround battle, he can deeply understand their feelings when they see this list.

The track of new energy vehicles is getting more and more rolled, and the touchstone of the stock price of car companies has also switched from explosive products to real money profits, and Xiaopeng wants to prove himself, or to come up with a report card of sales and profits.

The pressure is really not small.

01

Can G6 change Xpeng's product beliefs?

Xpeng desperately needs a blockbuster car that can regain users to turn its fortunes around.

It is not an exaggeration to say that it is a broken cauldron and a battle behind the water.

Since September last year, Xpeng Motors' sales have been declining year-on-year. In nearly a year, tens of thousands of sales were sold in only two months. During this period, Xpeng's successive G9 and facelifted P7i failed to become a savior.

In the first half of the year, Xpeng sold 41,435 electric vehicles, only completing 20.7% of the target at the beginning of the year.

The successive folds of G9 and P7i show that Xpeng's original product strategy does have a lot of problems.

From launch to delivery, the G9 made consumers wait 10 months. And the number of SKUs is too confusing, compared to the ideal L8 with only three SKUs, the SKU of Xpeng G9 is 8 more than that.

What's more bizarre is that the main selling points of the car, XNGP assisted driving, 5D music cockpit, and 4C ultra-fast charging battery pack, all need to be added to the optional equipment. The insincere price increase drove away the scheduled consumers, and no matter how hard Xiaopeng tried to reduce the price, sales did not improve.

(Source: Company Announcement)

The chaotic pricing system and the delay in the delivery execution cycle are on the one hand, and Xpeng's inherent product shortcomings come from typical engineer thinking.

Heavy research and development, as long as the technology is good enough, consumers are willing to pay for higher prices. However, in the face of crazy price reduction by external competitors, it lacks the ability to adapt flexibly, is obsessed with polishing products, and lacks keen perception and correct response to market temperature.

Just like the facelifted P7i, the configuration has been held up to the ceiling, and the entry version starts at about 250,000, but in March, when the price war is blazing, this price can be said to be not attractive at all. Tesla's Model 3 can press the price to less than 230,000 yuan, coupled with a number of joint venture cars crazy inventory clearance, huge price competition pressure in front of P7i, sales are not sluggish.

On the other hand, relying on the ideal of L7 and L8 counterattack, the Xpeng G9 is pressed on the ground and rubbed fiercely, and the sales of medium and large SUVs in the same price segment in June are 10 times that of the G9.

So it can naturally be more justified in comparison.

Moreover, compared with the ideal "daddy" feeling, NIO and high-net-worth customers are friends, and Xpeng's product positioning is somewhat embarrassing.

Autonomous driving, which has always been the main selling point, is still far away before it is fully implemented and habits are formed, not to mention that many car companies are now actively deploying and competing for ecological niches.

But consumers, young and old, don't have so much emotion and patience to wait.

The company's current product matrix has to face competitors in the 80% market share of the model, if the differentiation positioning card can not be played well for the time being, it can be corrected quickly, and the current only way to roll down the price.

The advent of this G6, with the new look of Xpeng's internal structure adjustment, seems to have targeted improvements in positioning, price, and marketing, which may be thanks to the new president - Wang Fengying.

Since Wang Fengying, a former executive of Great Wall Motor, became president, in view of the chaotic internal management and mutual internal friction in the past, he first began to adjust the sales structure, adjusting the original 4 sales areas to 25 war zones, so as to achieve flat sales and get feedback faster.

Then the pace of new product launches was accelerated.

The G6 was officially launched at the Shanghai Auto Show in April this year, launched in two months, and will start mass deliveries in July, which will bring timely incremental sales and maintain the performance of the second half of the year.

Price is the top priority, G6 threw out a starting price of 209,900, a price that Xiaopeng could not have played before.

G6 benchmarks against a strong rival - Model Y, and the lowest starting price is a full 50,000 yuan cheaper than competitors, almost forcing the ultimate cost performance. The G6 is equipped with the latest 800V charging architecture, which can replenish 300 kilometers in 10 minutes and has a maximum cruising range of 755 kilometers, which is higher than the Model Y's 660 kilometers.

By the time of the release on the 28th, the order volume had reached 35,000, and in June, Xpeng Motors sold a total of 8,620 vehicles. With change pushing fast and orders pouring in, it's no wonder the market is so excited about the launch, with Xpeng's Hong Kong share price doubling in June.

But the order only means that the intention money is paid, and how much sales the order can eventually convert into will soon be known.

02

The market is not superstitious about explosive models

How high the G6 can reach, Xiaopeng has high hopes for this.

Xpeng's current sales forecast for the G6 model in July is 7,000 units, and it can reach 8,000 in August, which is more than 10,000 in the long run, which is similar to this year's ideal series, and can bring nearly double the current increment.

But the market is not all optimistic.

According to a short selling report of BOCOM International, in order to cope with the challenge of new domestic forces, Tesla may cut prices again in the third quarter to boost demand, and the current market expectations for G6 are too high, optimistic expectations can only be sold to the level of 5-6,000 vehicles.

For total sales, when there was no frequent price reduction competition, the most stable output of P7 was about 6-7,000 vehicles, but the competition pattern in the range of 200,000-300,000 yuan has been very fierce, consumers to choose from G6/ModelY/ideal L7, the listing of G6 may squeeze P7 sales.

Last year, stimulated by the extension of electric vehicle subsidies, Xpeng electric vehicles sold less and less, and for four consecutive months from July to October, the company's stock price fell by more than 20% in a single month.

What is needed to invest in car companies is a path from new products to word-of-mouth hits, to continuous volume, amortization of costs to drive profit improvement, and then to a positive impact on stock prices.

Due to vague product positioning and fierce competition on the track, Xiaopeng has not been able to go through this road.

The delivery of the G9 and P7i eventually became a nightmare for Xpeng's stock price, and when he saw that the sales of ideal bicycles, one of the new forces, were about to catch up with the sales of his entire series, Xpeng could only survive until the G6 was listed.

(Source: Flush iFind, Owner's Home)

Although Xpeng's pricing and sales behavior have seen some positive changes in the G6, whether these adjustments can bring about effects will ultimately be reflected in revenue and profitability.

Being able to play such a low price hard Model Y, Xpeng seems to be more focused on saving sales and share, relying on sales to spread out the cost of bicycles to make up for the loss of gross margin.

But Tesla has played better, and the Model Y series is now also hitting historically low prices. According to the brokerage's calculation at the beginning of the year, the gross profit margin of Model Y of 339,900 is about 30%, and this 30% gross profit margin is the capital of Tesla's price reduction. With the decline in the cost of lithium batteries and the increase in sales, the room for price reduction is also increasing.

Such an opponent is simply a nightmare for the new forces in the country.

In contrast, in this year's Q1 financial report, Xpeng's revenue was 4.03 billion yuan, only bringing 70 million yuan of gross profit, and the automobile profit margin fell to -2.5%, which continued to decline due to the impact of sales. The second quarter is likely to remain under pressure, which is clearly expected based on sales performance, and the market is now focusing on the third quarter when G6 deliveries begin.

Has Xpeng tried to reduce costs on the G6? The answer is yes.

G6 adopts front and rear integrated die casting technology, and the PACK cost can be reduced by 40%~50%. According to He Xiaopeng, compared with the models developed by the previous architecture platform,

Xpeng G6

Reduce the overall R&D cost of the vehicle by 50%.

But it's the real thing to get the final cost down dramatically.

Gross margins are as high as Tesla's, and the market is still worried about whether profits will be sacrificed too much to meet sales targets.

There is still a long way to go.

Xpeng is in the most competitive electric vehicle track, in addition to fighting sales, but also concerned about whether sales can bring quality growth, so whether Xpeng's gross profit margin can be expected to improve in the third quarter may become an important factor affecting the company's stock price.

There is still a long way to go to give birth to a popular model, and it depends on whether the reputation can continue after delivery, and then whether each car after that can undertake the word of mouth.

He Xiaopeng is using his own way for the G6 platform, re-approaching users, and creating his own personality and brand power of the car. After Weibo posted that "G6 orders are very hot after listing", many netizens suggested that he go to the factory to "live broadcast screw screws" and "sleep in the factory", and people really went to screw screws.

(Source: Weibo)

It can be said that it is really very hard.

But in the eyes of capital and the market, there is never only the final result, and before the good results are achieved, any efforts of car companies are not worth a penny to them.

If hard work yields good results, then there won't be so many losers in the world.

The battle to turn over is destined to be a protracted battle.

But I feel that Xiaopeng can still win this war in the end, because of He Xiaopeng's mental strength.

Just wait together.