After the competition entered the white-knuckle war of price reduction, who will be the first to fall behind has become the focus of market attention.
On the evening of March 17, Xpeng Motors (hereinafter referred to as Xpeng) released its financial report for the fourth quarter and full year of 2022, Xpeng's total revenue in 2022 was 26.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.95% compared with 20.99 billion yuan in 2021, the average bicycle revenue was 222,400 yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent was -9.139 billion yuan, an increase of 87.92% year-on-year, and the loss hit a record high.
Xiaopeng, whose performance is unbearable, was also exposed to management personnel turmoil. Two weeks ago, a change in industrial and commercial information of Xpeng Motors aroused widespread attention, Tianyan inspection data showed that Guangzhou Xpeng Automobile Technology Co., Ltd. underwent industrial and commercial changes, Xia Heng stepped down as legal representative, executive director and general manager, and the three positions resigned were all taken over by He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xpeng Motors. From the original delegation of power to the current collection of power, coupled with Wang Fengying's parachuted arrival, it can be seen that He Xiaopeng is somewhat dissatisfied with the performance of Xpeng Motors' senior management in the past two years, you must know that Xia Heng is not only He Xiaopeng's Tsinghua brother, but also the co-founder of Xpeng Motors. It seems that the rumors of the "drastic change" at the top of Xiaopeng are not groundless.
According to the official website of Xpeng Motors, the core management team of Xpeng Motors has changed, except for He Xiaopeng's first position unchanged, Wang Fengying has become the president and has become the second person of Xpeng, and Xia Heng's title has become co-founder and co-president.
Some media reported that Xpeng's departing executives include: Liu Minghui, vice president of powertrain, Liao Qinghong, chief talent officer and vice president of sales; The two core founding members, Xia Heng and He Tao, may also change. Xiaopeng refuted the rumor and said that he would use legal means to protect his rights and interests, but Liao Qinghong and Liu Minghui were indeed missing from the core management team of the official website, and whether Xia Heng and He Tao really changed or will be revealed soon.
Once the second oldest among the new forces of car manufacturing, what happened to Xpeng Motors?
Xiaopeng was the first to "fall behind"?
Through the comparison of Wei Xiaoli's 2022 financial reports, NIO's annual revenue of 49.2 billion yuan in 2022 increased by 36.34% year-on-year, and the ideal annual revenue was 45.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.67%, while Xpeng's total revenue of 26.86 billion yuan was the lowest of the three, and the revenue growth rate of 27.95% was also the lowest of the three.
After the cancellation of the "national subsidy" at the end of 2022, the sales of new energy vehicles have been greatly affected. However, before the cancellation of the national subsidy, Xpeng's sales had begun to fall "four times in a row", and from June to October 2022, Xpeng's monthly deliveries were 15,000, 11,000, 09,500, 08,400 and 05,100 respectively. It was less than 10,000 for three consecutive months, and it only recovered slightly at the end of the year. However, only 48.3% of the overall target tasks were completed for the whole year.
Entering 2023, 7 of the top ten domestic new energy vehicle sales in January experienced a year-on-year decline in sales, and only BYD, Lili and Qianjie achieved year-on-year growth, of which BYD's sales were 154,200 units, an increase of 68.08%, and the highest increase was 445.57%. Xpeng's sales were 5,218 units, a year-on-year decline of 59.6%. Among the seven declining car companies, it is second only to Leap Auto's 85.9%.
Xpeng Motors' sales rose in February to 6,010 units, up 15% month-on-month, but still down 3% year-on-year, and Xpeng Motors was the only domestic automaker in the top 10 sales in February with negative year-on-year growth. What worries Xiaopeng is that although sales rose in February, they were distanced by competitors.
In January, Xpeng Motors ranked sixth, with a difference of 798 units with sales of Nezha Motors and 3,288 units from the fourth NIO, while in February, Xpeng still ranked sixth and fifth with Nezha, but the gap between the sales of the two widened from 798 to 4,063. The gap with the fourth NIO widened to 6,147 units, and NIO's sales have more than doubled that of Xpeng. In the first two months of 2023, Xpeng's cumulative sales volume was 11,228 units, a year-on-year decrease of 41.36%
According to Oriental Fortune Network, Xpeng Motors' stock price fell by 14.97% from March 6 to 10. As of the close of the week, Xpeng Motors' U.S. stock price was $8.18, entering 2023, the stock price has fallen by 17.71%, and the stock price has fallen by 64.3% in the past 52 weeks.
Not only U.S. stocks, but also the stock price of Xpeng Motors in Hong Kong stocks has also fallen endlessly, taking the stock price from March 6 to 10 as an example, a total of 12.08% decline, and the Hong Kong stock price was HK$32.40 as of the week's close. Since 2023, the cumulative decline in stock prices has been 15.51%. The cumulative decline in the stock price in the past 52 weeks is 69.26%.
In terms of market capitalization, BYD is the largest domestic car company, with a total market value of 694.65 billion yuan (as of the close of March 15, the following times are all closed on March 15). During the same period, the stock market capitalization of NIO and Li Mei was US$13.79 billion and US$22.25 billion respectively, while the total market value of Xpeng's US stock market was only US$6.99 billion, which was 50.7% and 31.4% of the market value of NIO and Li Mei. In terms of Hong Kong stock market capitalization, NIO and Li Li were HK$112.603 billion and HK$180.24 billion respectively, while Xpeng was HK$53.506 billion in the same period. NIO and ideal 47.5% and 29.7%, respectively. "Wei Xiaoli" tripod is no longer worthy of the name.
In the face of Xiaopeng's decline, even Wang Xing, who has always been optimistic about Xiaopeng, "shook his head" when he saw it, and in 2019, Wang Xing predicted that Xiaopeng was one of the three representatives of the new forces. The other two are ideal and NIO, but in the second half of 2022, Wang Xing directly kicked Xiaopeng out of Wei Xiaoli's sequence and replaced it with Huawei, because Qianjie has been performing well since the second half of 2022, of which 4490 units were sold in January 2023, and the difference in sales with Xpeng was only 628 vehicles, but the increase in Qianjie was as high as 446%, while Xpeng directly plunged 60%.
Xpeng's cash reserves were 38.25 billion yuan, while NIO's cash reserves were 45.5 billion yuan in the same period, and the ideal was 40.22 billion yuan. Xiaopeng's cash pressure is greater than that of the other two new forces.
Higher than Tesla's price
Wang Fengying, known as the "Iron Lady", rose from first-line sales to president of Great Wall Motor, and this time took over as president of Xpeng Motors, only reporting to He Xiaopeng and becoming Xpeng's second real power figure. Her main responsibilities are responsible for Xpeng's product planning, product matrix and sales system. What worries the industry is whether her set of traditional car companies can work in the new energy track.
After joining Xpeng, Wang Fengying quickly entered the state, and in order to make the marketing and distribution process more compact, the online warm-up time of the new P7 was postponed from mid-February to early March. And named the new P7 P7i. At the same time, the Haval H7 was rolled into the Haval H5, resulting in unsatisfactory sales of both and learned a lesson and stopped the sales plan of new and old models at the same time.
But Wang Fengying's pricing of the P7i still caused a lot of controversy. On March 10, the P7i was officially launched with a price range of 249,900-339,900 yuan. The starting price reached 249,900 yuan, which is 20,000 yuan more expensive than the 229,900 yuan of Tesla Model 3 standard version, which directly attracted many netizens to complain that as a mid-term facelift model, it was much more expensive than the price of the old model.
Coincidentally, the launch of Xpeng P7i coincided with Tesla's big price reduction at the beginning of the year and He Xiaopeng's hometown Hubei exposed the price reduction of Dongfeng cars, many car companies in response to have to carry out price wars, in the case of many models have a large discount, Xpeng P7i does not fall but rises, which will have a certain impact on sales.
Li Wenbin, who has always wanted to buy Xpeng Motors, has been shaken by the recent big car price cut. "I myself like Xpeng's intelligence very much, but now the price of the car has been greatly reduced, I can choose more models, originally not considered BMW 3 and Mercedes-Benz C and Audi series, now have entered the scope of consideration, it is certain that now the probability will not buy Xpeng, the cost performance is not too high, we consumers definitely want to spend less money to buy better products." If you have to choose new energy vehicles, now Tesla is also a choice. ”
Zhang Zhiyong, an automotive media person, believes that the starting price of Xpeng P7i is too high, which is not conducive to Xpeng to reverse the decline, and may even be "slapped in the face" by the market, "Compared with Tesla, Xpeng and Tesla are definitely stronger than Tesla's brand power, and the price is higher than Tesla I think it is not a very wise choice, which is bound to affect Xpeng's sales, in the case that its own sales have been gradually thrown off by the first few, Xpeng has shown a momentum of falling behind, once it cannot reverse the decline in the next few months, it will be completely left behind." ”
Ultra-high price-to-sales ratio and ultra-low gross margin
The price-to-sales ratio is the ratio of market capitalization to sales, which is an important data for whether a listed company is overestimated, and Xpeng's price-to-sales ratio is one of the higher in the industry. Taking the 2021 value as an example, Xpeng's price-to-sales ratio was 13.37, while NIO's was 9.45 and 7.74 in the same period, much higher than its industry competitors. Its own revenue failed to expand with the market value, and in the case of a sharp increase in market value, the revenue failed to form a positive proportion.
Xpeng's market-to-sales ratio is not only high compared with new automakers, but also surprisingly high compared with traditional automakers. During the same period, Geely Automobile's price-to-sales ratio was 1.7, Great Wall Motor's was only 1.56, and Xpeng's was 7.9 times and 8.6 times that of Geely and Great Wall respectively. This has created the false impression that Xpeng's market value is higher than that of traditional car companies, and it is also the most overvalued enterprise among the new forces of car manufacturing.
The ideal car for the same emerging automaker is 7.74, and NIO's is 9.45. Therefore, Xiaopeng's valuation is not only significantly higher than that of traditional cars, but also the most overvalued among the new forces.
The capital market is not only worried about the price-to-sales ratio, but also an important indicator to measure whether a company can make money - gross margin. The financial report shows that Xpeng's gross profit margin and automobile profit margin have declined, Xpeng's gross profit margin in 2022 is 11.50%, which has declined again compared with 12.50% last year, and Xpeng's gross profit margin in the second quarter of 2022 is 10.9%, down about 1% year-on-year and about 1.3% month-on-month; Automotive margin was 9.1%, down approximately 1.9% y/y and 1.3% m/m. Corresponding to the 21.5% and 16.7% of Ideal and NIO, the gross profit margin is not only comparable to Ideal and NIO, but also cannot be compared with Tesla's 27.9%. Its gross profit margin is significantly lower than that of the head new forces.
"Low gross profit margin is a hidden worry of Xpeng, the new energy market competition is increasingly fierce, coupled with the price reduction promotion of traditional car companies, the price will become more and more involuted, and Xpeng has little room to reduce prices, even if the price is not low, but the gross profit margin is still not high." In order to maintain sales targets, it is difficult to reverse the low gross profit situation in the short term. Zhang Zhiyong believes that Xpeng's gross profit margin is difficult to improve in the short term, and at the same time, Xpeng's proud intelligent driving technology still needs the process of market acceptance in the promotion, "Xpeng's core technology is intelligent driving, but intelligent driving technology is not really accepted by the market now, relatively few consumers are willing to try, everyone still likes to control the steering wheel, so it seems that Xpeng's advantages are not obvious, and the cost performance is difficult to highlight." ”
The "technical trap" Mazda is a lesson in the past
Financial report data shows that in 2022, Xpeng will invest up to 5.215 billion yuan in R&D, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%, R&D accounts for 19.4% of total revenue, and Xpeng's R&D expenses in the fourth quarter were 1.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 17.9%; The proportion of R&D in the third quarter once exceeded 21%, up from the ideal 15% in 2022. However, NIO's R&D expenditure in 2022 will be 10.84 billion yuan, accounting for 22% of R&D, and Xpeng's R&D will not account for as much as NIO.
Xpeng's research and development is mostly invested in intelligent driving, and the current rate of return is low, but the founder He Xiaopeng is a software engineer, has a systematic understanding of the Internet, and is more familiar with the algorithms and data of automatic driving, so he has a simple belief in the subversive innovation of the underlying technology. However, the popularity of intelligent driving at this stage is limited by consumer acceptance. He Xiaopeng once said on Weibo, "I believe that in 2025, Xpeng Motors will enter the era of true autonomous driving." He Xiaopeng's goal for Xiaopeng is to benchmark Baidu, because Baidu has publicly announced that autonomous driving technology will be commercialized on a large scale in 2025, and He Xiaopeng's goal is only 2 years, and now it seems that there is a long way to go.
Ho's ambitions in the field of flying cars are comparable to Musk's, and the Xpenghuitian Flying Car Voyager X2 completed its overseas public maiden flight in Dubai last year and is expected to achieve mass production in 2024. But some insiders believe that the possibility is not great. "In fact, flying cars are not only technically difficult, but also the relevant laws are blank. The conditions for mass production within a year are not ripe. ”
Xpeng has invested a lot of real money in intelligent driving and flying cars, and is a company that pursues cutting-edge technology, but whether the input and market output are directly proportional is a question mark, and the precedent of Mazda and Subaru is in front of us. Subaru's cutting-edge technology in the car is relatively advanced, with its signature boxer engine, symmetrical left-right layout and full-time four-wheel drive technology, and its CVT transmission is 16 years earlier than the Audi CVT. Mazda is also a technology-oriented company, which has successively developed rotary engines, rear-drive platforms, and even the current outdated 6-cylinder engine, which was ridiculed by the automobile industry as "other car companies make money by making cars, and Mazda makes money making cars".
These two are willing to invest in the research and development of cutting-edge technology, unfortunately the final effect is not obvious, once also popular Subaru and Mazda are not very good recently, now their embarrassment, may be worth Xiaopeng's reference, has been adhering to technology-driven business logic, will it become the next Subaru or Mazda? Especially at present, when the capital market is already "de-bubbled" Xpeng's market value, how long Xpeng's technology flow can last needs to be tested by the market.
High-level "shock", huge loss of 9.1 billion yuan, low gross margin, revenue and growth rate are not as good as NIO and ideal, "whether Xiaopeng will fall first" has become the most discussed topic in the industry. Wang Fengying took office, and he also faces many problems in changing Xiaopeng's status quo in the short term. Nowadays, the competition in the industry is intense, leaving not much time for He Xiaopeng and Wang Fengying, if there is no improvement this year, Xiaopeng will face the problem of life and death.
Wen 丨 BT Finance Mowgli
Welcome to follow [BT Finance] to read more wonderful content.
All rights reserved, no unauthorized reproduction! If infringement is involved, please contact to delete.
![He Xiaopeng: In 2023, Xpeng will launch 5 new cars / 3 previously planned[fig]](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=)