Written by / Qian Yaguang
Editor / Zhang Nan
Design / Shi Yuchao
Recently, the park interior test pictures of the first electric motorcycle independently developed by BYD Electronics were exposed, and as far as the information currently known, the overall shape of this electric motorcycle that may be named "Coke" is similar to that of a fuel scooter, but it has very obvious sports cruise elements.
The performance of this car is equivalent to a 125cc fuel motorcycle, equipped with a motor rated at 9kW and a peak power of 12kW, equipped with a 5.76kWh BYD lithium iron phosphate battery, and the maximum speed can reach 125km/h.
This exposed electric pedal motorcycle has a similar appearance to the Nerva EXE II.
The biggest highlight of this new car is the adaptive balance function, the rider no longer has to worry about losing balance, cornering will be more confident, greatly improving the safety performance of two-wheeled motorcycles, which can not be easily achieved by conventional fuel motorcycles.
Previously, BYD led the motorcycle manufacturer Nerva, which was co-founded with a number of Spanish car companies, to create new energy electric motorcycles, and last year BYD applied for the registration of the "Cola" trademark, which includes electric motors, motorcycles and other projects.
Car companies are not new to build motorcycles
Car companies manufacturing motorcycles is not a new thing, motorcycles and the automotive industry have many common examples, such as BMW first built motorcycles and then cars, and Mercedes-Benz's parent company Daimler's early prototypes also have motorcycles.
Japan's four major motorcycle factories, except for Kawasaki, are both cars and motorcycles, especially Honda motorcycles are better than cars.
In China, Geely and Lifan are typical of starting from motorcycles and then entering the automotive industry, and the motorcycle brands acquired or injected by Geely include Benelli, QJMOTO, Paifang, etc., which are developing well.
In recent years, some automobile companies have also begun to enter the field of two-wheel travel, such as Wuling, Great Wall and Cialis have similar layouts and operations.
In June 2021, Guangxi Automobile Group, an enterprise established by Wuling, was approved to establish a new motorcycle production enterprise, which is qualified to produce and sell a full range of two- and three-wheeled products for fuel motorcycles and electric motorcycles. In December of that year, Wuling launched the P20 two-wheeled electric vehicle, and in September last year, it launched a new motorcycle brand "Saiper".
On August 9, 2021, Great Wall Motor established Great Wall Soul Technology Co., Ltd., whose business scope includes the research and development, manufacturing, sales and technical consultation of motorcycles, motorcycle parts and accessories. Great Wall Motor plans to invest more than 556 million yuan to deploy the motorcycle market, and is expected to complete the production line with an annual output of 10,000 motorcycle powertrains in December 2023.
In February 2022, Great Wall Motor's first motorcycle pictures and parameters were exposed online, which is a heavy-duty retro motorcycle with a horizontally opposed engine and a total of eight cylinders.
Xiaokang Group (the predecessor of Cialis) established the company's motorcycle R&D technology center as early as 2002 and created a motorcycle racing team. In October 2022, Cialis established a high-end sub-brand Yuantu in response to the medium and large displacement motorcycle market, and has launched three new products: GS525, GP250 and GP325.
From the perspective of car companies, entering the motorcycle market is, on the one hand, to expand its own business scope, deploy horizontal upgrades, complete travel scenarios, and prepare for subsequent industrial upgrading; On the other hand, the new energy based on electricity is a vertical upgrade of transportation driven by policy, market and technology, and car companies build motorcycles to prepare for entering the blue ocean of electric motorcycles in the future.
For passenger car companies with fierce price wars and profit and development space that have been compressed to the extreme, motorcycles are undoubtedly very good new profit growth points, especially motorcycles in the range of 30,000-100,000 yuan, which will become the main battle zone for passenger car companies to enter the motorcycle field.
Electrification of motorcycles
When the automotive industry fully turns to electrification, the electrification trend of the two-wheeled motorcycle industry is becoming clear, coupled with the gradual implementation of the "dual carbon" policy in recent years, the tightening of carbon dioxide emission regulations, electric motorcycles are more environmentally friendly and low-carbon than fuel motorcycles, becoming the focus of the future development of the industry, and are another potential and competitive track after electric vehicles.
At the policy level, achieving the goals and tasks of the dual carbon strategy is already the general trend. Like the automotive industry, the motorcycle industry is also taking low-carbon technology as its own development direction and goal, on the one hand, continuously improving the energy efficiency of traditional fuel vehicles, reducing emissions, and on the other hand, combining new energy and electrification of vehicles.
At the consumption level, market demand is also strong. People used to buy motorcycles to facilitate work and daily life, and electric motorcycles provide people with more flexible, more playable, more personalized ways of travel, with greater growth potential.
At present, the world's major motorcycle manufacturers produce and sell more than 28 million vehicles a year, and it is expected that 30% of the share will be replaced by electric motorcycles in the next five years.
In addition, affected by the implementation of the new national standard, about 150 million over-standard electric vehicles across the country will be replaced between 2020 and 2025, and some users will turn to the electric motorcycle market, which is expected to bring million-level growth.
According to the report "2021-2027 Global and China Electric Motorcycle Market Status and Future Development Trend", it is expected that the global electric motorcycle market will reach 69.3 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.5%.
According to the forecast of China Research Institute Puhua, by 2027, the production of motorcycles in mainland China will reach 22.5 million units, with a compound annual growth rate of about 5%, of which the proportion of electric motorcycles will increase from 20% to 30%, and the average annual growth rate of electric motorcycles is predicted to be 15%, which is much higher than the overall market growth rate.
Electric motorcycles are becoming the "new favorite" of venture capital. Sequoia, Hillhouse, Gaorong, Shenzhen Venture Capital, Challenger Capital, Zhongding Capital, China Imaging Capital, Lightspeed China, DCM, Qifeng K2VC, Bird Capital, Tsingshan Capital, CICC Huirong, Puhua Capital, DCM, Hangzhou Changjiang Venture Capital, Tencent, CATL and other investment institutions and enterprises have invested in this industry.
Similar to new energy vehicles, traditional fuel motorcycles will become a new track after electrification, which will also greatly reduce the driving threshold of motorcycles.
In addition, electrification brings more possibilities for intelligent applications for motorcycles, such as NFC key unlocking, smarter vehicles, including future autonomous driving technology applications.
In the past two years, many places have formulated some measures to strengthen management, strengthen the management of motorcycles and electric vehicles under the premise of ensuring the number of motor vehicles and traffic conditions, and moderately relax the scope of use of electric motorcycles.
Foreign companies move faster
Rising demand, favorable policies, supply chain advantages, and a fascinating market space of hundreds of billions of dollars, investors are firmly optimistic about the potential of two-wheeled electric motorcycles. And car manufacturers build motorcycles, partly because they are optimistic about the broad market prospects brought by electric motorcycles.
In the process of electrification of motorcycles, overseas companies are more aggressive. At present, the European Motorcycle Association has defined the goal of completing the electric transformation of European motorcycles by 2030, including BMW, Ducati and other well-known brands have explained their electrification plans.
Several traditional motorcycle brands in Japan put forward their own electrification plans, and Yamaha took the lead in proposing clear and comprehensive electrification transformation goals, declaring that its motorcycle industry would completely shift to electrification, and clearly proposed the goal of increasing the proportion of electric vehicles year by year, reaching 2.6% by 2030, 20% by 2035, and 90% by 2050.
Honda announced that it will discontinue production of two-wheeled gasoline vehicles in the mid-2040s and convert the new vehicles to pure electric (EV) motorcycles. Honda announced that it will launch more than 10 pure electric motorcycles by 2025, and plans to sell 3.5 million pure electric motorcycles by 2030, accounting for about 15% of global sales.
American motorcycle brand Harley successfully spun off its electric motorcycle division, LiveWire, through SPAC, becoming the first publicly listed electric motorcycle company in the United States.
The person in charge of BMW Motorcycle said that BMW Motorcycle began the pace of electrification as early as 2011, and formulated long-term strategic goals, and by 2030, the urban mobility series will be fully electrified. BMW will have a new electric motorcycle every 18 to 24 months in the future.
Domestic companies are also trying
However, unlike the hot situation of the electric vehicle market, the electrification of the mainland motorcycle industry is in the early stage, the penetration rate is still low, and the market is relatively sluggish. In 2022, the sales volume of electric motorcycles in the whole industry will be 7.6327 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 14.46%.
In China, traditional motorcycle factories such as Chunfeng and Qianjiang have successively launched electric motorcycles. Among them, Chunfeng Power announced the development strategy of "intelligence + electrification" in September last year, and will launch 6 fuel two-wheelers and 4 electric two-wheelers in 2023, with a ratio of fuel to electricity close to 55.
According to the provisions of the "Safety Technical Specifications for Electric Bicycles" (GB17761-2018), two-wheeled electric vehicles with a mass of less than 55kg and a maximum speed of less than 25km/h are classified as electric bicycles, and two-wheeled electric mopeds with a mass greater than 55kg and a maximum speed of 25km/h-50km/h are classified as electric mopeds. The top speed above 50km/h is an electric motorcycle in the true sense, which needs to be managed according to the motor vehicle, and the driver needs to obtain a motor vehicle driving license. This is also a new track for the layout of major motorcycle OEMs around the world.
Foreign countries, especially Southeast Asia, Europe, North America have a huge motorcycle market, export is also a major driving force for the development of domestic electric motorcycles. In 2022, the international economic situation is complex and changeable, and international demand continues to weaken; Affected by the epidemic in China, production and operation have been affected to a certain extent. The number and value of Continental motorcycle exports have decreased from 2021, but are still at historically high levels. Data show that in 2022, mainland motorcycles exported 7.6447 million units, with an export value of 5.297 billion US dollars.
At present, the mainland's entry into overseas markets of two-wheeled electric vehicles is divided into three categories, the first is lightweight electric bicycles, mainly used as a means of transportation to meet the needs of short-distance travel.
The second type is E-bike (Electric Bike), which refers to a bicycle equipped with an electric motor that needs to be driven by a pedal, and on the basis of the pedal drive, it makes riding easier. Its products are priced between 1000 euros and 4699 euros.
Compared with traditional two-wheeled electric bicycles, E-bikes and electric motorcycles have the characteristics of high technical content, large market potential and strong profitability, and at the same time, the market concentration is low and there are no giant enterprises, which also increases more possibilities for entrepreneurs.
Among car manufacturers, luxury car brands Porsche, Audi, Lamborghini, BMW, Mercedes-Benz have all promoted E-bike products, Tesla has launched E-bike products that can drive autonomously, and General Motors plans to launch two electric bicycles next year. Among the two-wheeler manufacturers, the old bicycle manufacturer Giant and the electric car brands Maverick, Yadea, and Emma have all laid out. Midea, Xiaomi, DJI, Bosch, and even the shared travel service Lime have also come in to get a piece of the pie.
In the E-bike industry, China has the leading edge with lower labor costs, more efficient production methods and faster logistics system. According to data, about 7.5-8 million E-bikes will be shipped worldwide in 2022, and China will export about 3 million units.
According to market research institutes, the global market size of E-bike has exceeded $49.7 billion in 2022. And it will also grow at an annual rate of more than 10%, and it is expected that by 2030, the market size will exceed 118 billion US dollars, becoming a new 100 billion yuan market.
The third category is electric motorcycles, which are closer to fuel motorcycles in performance, handling and riding, with a maximum speed of more than 100km/h, and provide perfect solutions in endurance, fast charging and other performance indicators.
Whether starting or accelerating in the middle of the course, the power response of the electric motorcycle motor is faster, more stable and more linear. Although motorcycles do not have as high requirements for smoothness and comfort as cars, the huge advantages brought by electric drives can still be directly reflected.
At present, electric motorcycles are still in the early stage of development, and the market saturation is low, but the market space is large. According to the report "2021-2027 Global and China Electric Motorcycle Market Status and Future Development Trend", the global electric motorcycle market is expected to reach 69.3 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.5%.
According to the forecast of China Research Institute Puhua, by 2027, the production of motorcycles in mainland China will reach 22.5 million units, with a compound annual growth rate of about 5%, of which the proportion of electric motorcycles will increase from 20% to 30%, and the average annual growth rate of electric motorcycles is predicted to be 15%, which is much higher than the overall market growth rate.
The challenge of electrification
Although the electrification of motorcycles has a good future, it still faces many problems and challenges in the process of propulsion. At present, motorcycles have the advantages of better acceleration performance, lower cost of use, and almost no after-sales maintenance in terms of electrification, which can be used for weekend outings and daily commutes, and the use scenarios will be greatly expanded. However, at the same time, purchase costs, charging range, and lightweight bodies are all common concerns of the industry.
At present, the electrification of motorcycles is still in a very early stage, and the price of buying high-performance electric motorcycles in the short term is very expensive. For example, Harley's latest S2 DEL MAR standard version sells for $15,000 overseas; BMW CE 04 domestic official guidance price of 145,900-175,900 yuan.
From the perspective of the industry, the manufacturing cost of electric motorcycles will take about 3-5 years to be equal to that of fuel motorcycles. The core reason for the high manufacturing cost of electric motorcycles is the rising cost of battery raw materials. Since 2022, the price of lithium carbonate has increased by more than 80%.
Electric motorcycles also need to overcome many technical hurdles, such as extending driving range and shortening charging times, as well as infrastructure development (such as the expansion of charging piles).
In addition, the weight of the body and the storage space of the battery are also serious problems for electric motorcycles. This is easier to solve for electric vehicles, but for smaller motorcycles, the overall electronic control needs to be more compact, and the balance between power and endurance costs a larger amount of capital.
For automotive companies, the lack of adaptation to product development and manufacturing may be the biggest problem. However, for automotive companies, entering the new track can enrich their product lines and harvest consumer groups with different needs. Being the first to enter the underdeveloped electric motorcycle market, and gaining a foothold in subsequent development, may also bring new profit growth points to enterprises.
With the promulgation and landing of the new national standard, the gradual regulation of two-wheeled motorcycles nationwide, the policy of banning and restricting motorcycles has gradually been relaxed, the motorcycle consumption environment has been improved, and electric motorcycles will usher in a new round of development for the motorcycle industry.
This article was originally produced by Automotive Business Review
Illegal reprints must be investigated