Under the global trend of new energy, new energy models are becoming a strong replacement for traditional fuel vehicles, and more and more holders of coins are providing "electric" option B for their car purchase plans.
According to a new analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA), more than 2.3 million electric vehicles have been sold worldwide in the first quarter of 2023 alone, an increase of 25% compared to the same period in 2022.
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According to the sales momentum in the first quarter, global electric vehicle sales are expected to reach 14 million units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 35%, and the global penetration rate of electric models will reach 18%.
The wave of global vehicle electrification is obviously difficult to stop.
Under the mighty wave of "pure electrification", it is inevitable that mud and sand will fall. As the saying goes, "as long as it is on the vent, a pig can fly", with Tesla as the first "crab-eater" person, let more and more capital see the terrible potential behind the global new energy market.
The hot global new energy market has begun to emerge a large number of start-up car companies.
The law of success fails, and "zombie cars" are infested
In the long history of global business, there are indeed many successful cases of startups becoming unicorns in the industry, and the "light and agile" volume of startups helps enterprises maintain better sensitivity to seize opportunities and ultimately win surprisingly compared to the complex and heavy organizational structure of large companies.
Whether it is the rising music giant "Spotify" or the "11-man army" Midjourney, which has recently made a name for itself on the wave of AI, they tell us over and over again the possibility of startups "killing giants".
Image from: Radio-Canada.ca
However, the success law of "agility" for startups may not be effective in the automotive industry.
On the one hand, unlike the business model of other industries, there is no shortcut to the establishment of automotive companies. Automobile manufacturing is often closely related to the huge supply chain and factory expansion, and the "thin" volume of startups is difficult to fully control such a huge supply chain model, which directly leads to a large number of start-up car companies being buried in the "whirlpool" of capital raising at any time.
On the other hand, even if the "endless" funding problem is solved, the competition for new energy vehicles is more fierce than expected. In addition to the well-known domestic new energy market, even the competition in the US new energy market, where the share of pure electricity is only 8% in 2022, is far more tragic than the paper data.
In the past year, Lucid, a new pure electric powerhouse in the United States, earned an average of $139,000 per new car, and after spreading all the expenses, Lucid had to pay a cost of up to $376,000 per new car delivered. In order to maintain a competitive advantage in the pure electric market in the United States, Lucid struggled to support a huge inversion of profits and expenses.
Coming to the first quarter of 2023, Lucid's financial problems have not improved significantly. In Lucid's first-quarter earnings report, its first-quarter revenue was $149.4 million, far from meeting its revenue target of $209 million. The gap in revenue expectations dampened shareholder confidence and led to a further contraction in market capitalization.
At the current rate of capital inversion, Lucid's liquidity can only support the company's production until the first half of 2024, and the financial situation is precarious.
Coincidentally, Rivian, who is also a new pure electric force in the United States, is actually not having a good time in 2022. On average, expenses outweighed revenues by approximately $235,000 per Rivian all-electric pickup delivered.
To make matters worse, Rivian now has only $1.5 million in market capitalization compared to the $150 billion market cap it debuted at the end of 2021, which is a very dangerous signal for the company's actual cash flow at this stage.
If Rivian cannot successfully obtain the planned financing this year, the North American pure electric upstart is likely to be on the verge of bankruptcy and become another new force car company in the United States that has fallen into the process of pure electricity.
Although the financial situation has been on the edge of the cliff, the new forces represented by Lucid have not given up their pursuit of higher market share.
Recently, Lucid was also exposed to a "poaching" scandal, Lucid's sales staff "ambushed" Tesla owners at Tesla's charging piles, and provided Lucid test drive services to Tesla owners who came to charge, hoping to convert Tesla owners into Lucid users. Although the means of converting users are not very "moral", the fierce competition between new energy vehicle companies can be seen.
Image from Twitter @RyanZohoury
Even Lucid and Rivian, two new pure electric forces on the right track, are on the edge of the cliff, not to mention some more "weak" automotive startups.
"Jumping repeatedly between heaven and hell" is a good interpretation of the main theme of the new forces in North America, no one can say whether the new car that has just been purchased with a lot of money will become a "zombie car" that loses the manufacturer's protection tomorrow.
However, if the car becomes an unprotected "zombie car", is it unlucky for the owner?
Interestingly, a foreign organization has taken the lead in countering this inequality, "Altman Z-Scores" is an analysis report for pure electric car manufacturers in the United States, which uses a series of financial information to assess the financial health of each pure electric car company, and finally warns consumers through indicator floating.
Image courtesy of Bloomberg
Once the value of the car company is lower than "0", it means that the financial situation of the car company has entered the warning line, and the person holding the coin needs to avoid buying the model of the car company as much as possible.
It is gratifying to note that there are data to support that "Altman Z-Scores" has played a role in the market, and the health indicators of car companies in the list have a positive impact on the decisions of holders of coins.
Let the country learn from it
Compared with the US domestic market, the fierce competition in the domestic new energy market is self-evident. While seeing a variety of domestic new energy vehicle companies, we must also see those domestic car companies that "have not yet started a business and collapsed in the middle".
Because the example is too classic, here I have to re-mention the "early morning rush and late gathering" of WM Motor, compared with the current three-legged pattern of "Wei Xiaoli", WM is undoubtedly the first to start the "pure electric player", but unfortunately the later wrong move made WM completely lose the early advantage.
On January 12 this year, WM Motor officially reached a conditional sale and purchase agreement with Apollo, and Apollo will eventually acquire WM Motor for 2.023 billion US dollars.
I thought it would be a "lifesaver" for WM to revitalize, but one wrong step and one wrong step, even if it was eventually acquired by Apollo, it could not completely save WM. Two months after the conditional acquisition agreement was reported, WM Motor was named by the Shanghai Consumer Protection Association to issue a consumer warning - WM Motor operated abnormally, reminding consumers to buy cautiously.
Behind the consumer warning, as many as 90 consumers complained collectively about WM, and WM, which once again fell into the "rumor of suspension of production", failed to live up to consumer confidence.
Although on March 7, WM officially released a Weibo news of full resumption of work and production, the repeated jumps of "WM" to "dangerous horse" not only frustrated market confidence, but also chilled the hearts of old car owners.
After all, as car owners, no one knows whether the current WM will become a "three-no zombie car".
WM is not alone in the domestic new energy, and Li Yinan's self-traveler "died" in silence. In an open letter last December, Ziyujia admitted that it could not be delivered, and a full refund would follow. The long-standing problem of Dacheng Auto's car-building qualification finally broke out, making the long-established self-traveler NV "stillborn", and prospective owners did not even see the car they ordered.
With the advent of a new round of price war and the approaching "life and death line" of the domestic new energy industry, WM and Ziyoujia will definitely not be the last story of the "fall" of new energy vehicle companies, and in the near future, domestic "zombie cars" will still appear.
In this way, it is a good way to learn from the list of "Altman Z-Scores" for early warning, and in the current booming domestic new energy industry, healthier supervision measures are also needed to avoid coin holders stepping into the "zombie car" minepit.