Southern Finance all-media Information Communication researcher Xing Ruihan Comprehensive report On February 7, the first day of the opening of the Year of the Tiger, the disk surface rose sharply across the board. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.96%, the ChiNext Board rose by 0.31%, and the Science and Technology Innovation Board rose by 0.36%.
Since last year, the new energy sector has experienced a sharp correction, but many brokers believe that the basic logic of the new energy sector remains unchanged, a number of car companies announced sales data growth in January is still strong, the association predicts that this year's annual sales or more than 5 million, penetration rate of 25%.
As of the close of trading on Feb. 7, the auto sector was up 3.78 percent.
Soochow Securities believes that 2022 is the key point in the current round of global automotive century-old changes, electrification is the first half, and intelligence is the second half. If the penetration of new energy vehicles is divided into three stages: "0-1", "1-10" and "10-100", then by 2022, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the Chinese market will be 0-15% (to achieve the "0-1" stage) with the continuous progress of electrification technology, and then 2022-2025 will usher in a leap in penetration from 15%-50% (to achieve the "1-10" stage), and intelligence will take over the electric as the most important driver of this stage. Under the screening framework of "bicycle value + penetration rate + gross profit margin", intelligence is one of the most attractive tracks.
Intelligence has entered the acceleration stage, and the penetration rate has been continuously improved
The above-mentioned bodies consider that:
Penetration is the most important indicator to guide investment in intelligent tracks. L3 function will accelerate the realization of phase 0-1 in 2022, and L2 function will accelerate the realization of optional to standard phase (phase 1-10) in 2022. The four major applications of "domain controller + lidar + HUD + acoustics" are the most significant.
The E and E architecture is the technical underlying layer of intelligent track track tracking. The methodology industry of architecture has formed a consensus, and the difference lies in how the planning of each car company is landed, who is faster and more capable, and the functional domain + Ethernet will gradually become the standard.
The sensing layer (information input), decision-making layer (information processing), and execution layer (information transmission) are the three important technological innovation nodes of intelligent track track tracking. Lidar is the largest increase in the sensor layer in 2022. AI chip-OS-domain controller has always been the focus of continuous iteration of decision-making layer technology, and NVIDIA Orin chip is the most concerned. The chassis domain is the key point of the execution layer, the shortage of chips has accelerated the domestic replacement of the chassis in 2021, and the architecture upgrade will accelerate the formation of the chassis domain, and the line control movement is still the focus in 2022.
The application layer is the key to testing whether the penetration rate of intelligent terminals can be improved. The intelligent cockpit class is still the strongest function of consumer perception in 2022, and consumers' functional perception of assisted driving is still in the stage of quantitative improvement.
Further optimization on the demand side and user side
Guojin Securities believes that further optimization of the demand side and the user side is conducive to promoting the penetration rate of smart cars to further increase.
Optimization of the demand side:
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is showing an upward trend, which is expected to increase the penetration rate of smart vehicles. According to the monitoring data of Guojin Securities, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in OTA upgrades, mobile phone interconnection, central control color screen, Internet of Vehicles, HUD head-up digital display, and voice recognition control system is 69%, 65%, 18.5%, 9%, 52%, and 53%, respectively, and the penetration rate of traditional models is 39%, 37%, 9.5%, 2%, 24%, and 51%, respectively, and the intelligence rate of new energy vehicles is higher than that of traditional models.
At present, the proportion of car purchase demand from replacement has increased, and the replacement demand has obvious consumption upgrade attributes. The penetration rate of experience upgrading represented by intelligence is expected to increase the consumption upgrade trend brought about by the increase in the proportion of replacement demand.
Optimization of the user side: Generation Z has gradually become the main car buyer group, and the demand for intelligent interaction and entertainment applications in this part of the population is high.
Investment logic
Soochow Securities is firmly optimistic about the automotive intelligent track.
Sensing layer: lidar + camera, etc.
Decision layer: AI chip + autonomous driving domain controller + cockpit domain controller, etc.
Execution layer: line control movement + wire steering, etc.
Application layer: HUD function + acoustics, etc.
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On-av electronics (688533. SH): The company is committed to using acoustic technology to enhance the driving experience, is a leading supplier of automotive acoustic product solutions in China, and has been integrated into the synchronous development system of many well-known automobile manufacturers at home and abroad. The company has realized the localization of vehicle speakers earlier, and has a strong ability to compete in the international market through continuous independent innovation.
(Report source: Guojin Securities, Soochow Securities; the information in this article does not constitute any investment advice, the content is from licensed securities institutions, does not represent the views of the platform, please judge and make decisions independently of investors.) ）