summary
The global automotive industry has shown a very clear trend, and more and more car companies are accelerating their own research and production of batteries.
The rapid growth of global new energy vehicle market penetration gives car companies the confidence and motivation to embrace electrification on the one hand; but on the other hand, subject to the current control of core components - power batteries in terms of supply, price and technology, car companies are forced to start a strategic struggle with their suppliers.
In the development of the automobile industry in the past century, car companies do not seem to have faced the same situation as the current situation, because of a certain type of supplier and feel so anxious.
Not long ago, BYD Automobile announced a high-profile suspension of fuel vehicles, which further stimulated the general concern of car companies: If full electrification has come as fast and inevitable as the wheel of history, is the battery a pearl that must be taken?
01
The new strategy of global car companies: self-production and control of batteries
At the groundbreaking ceremony of the Berlin factory in Germany on March 22, Tesla CEO Musk of the United States expected that the battery would become a "limiting factor" hindering Tesla's development in 2-3 years. For how to alleviate the battery "anxiety", Musk has long given Tesla's solution, through self-research and self-production, deployment as the core link - the "initiative" of the power battery.
For the long term, Tesla's annual battery production capacity (including energy storage) demand will exceed 1000GWh, Musk's idea is to use self-production and external suppliers to achieve two ways.
In early January, Tesla's pilot plant in Fremont, California, produced the 1 millionth 4680 battery, and according to the plan, the first Model Y models with 4680 batteries will be delivered at the end of March.
The large-scale mass production of the 4680 battery pioneered by Tesla means that it has taken another key step in the process of self-developed and self-produced batteries, which allows it to fully grasp the autonomy of the core links of the battery, including material system, model specifications, and engineering manufacturing.
In the field of electrification, The German Volkswagen, which has "broken the boat", has also accelerated on the road of self-development and self-production of batteries.
In March last year, Volkswagen released a series of battery planning news at the first Power Day, including Unified cell (standard battery cell), battery cost reduction of 50%, CTC technology, material innovation, battery demand and so on.
In order to ensure the supply of batteries, Volkswagen plans to work with partners to build six battery plants in Europe. The first plant, in partnership with Northvolt, Sweden, plans to have an annual production capacity of 40GWh. At the same time, Volkswagen's battery plant in Salzgitter will start producing standard batteries in 2025, and the planned annual production capacity will also reach 40GWh.
Long-term planning for Volkswagen power batteries: 80% from self-owned or dependent cell maker, 20% other suppliers
It can be seen that Volkswagen's strategy is similar to Tesla's, on the one hand, it controls the initiative of battery development by introducing standards, and on the other hand, it ensures the stability and controllability of the supply chain by jointly building battery factories with partners.
Turning the field of vision to the country, we can also see car companies in the process of self-developed batteries to speed up the whip.
On March 10, GAC Aean's self-developed power battery trial production line was started, which covers the complete battery production process from slurry preparation to battery Pack, as well as laboratories for material research and development, physical and chemical testing, and electrical performance, and is expected to be officially put into operation at the end of 2022. It is reported that GAC Aean's self-developed sponge silicon anode plate battery will achieve independent production in this trial production line.
Behind GAC Aean, GAC Group has announced that it will increase investment in the independent research and development of batteries and batteries, and its internally incubated Juwan Technology Research and Industrial Base will be fully completed and put into operation in 2023, mainly engaged in the research and development and production of super fast charging cores, next-generation new energy storage devices and Pack integrated systems.
The global automotive industry has shown a very clear trend, and more and more car companies are accelerating their own research and production of batteries. This includes international car companies such as Tesla, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and General Motors, as well as domestic car companies such as Great Wall, Geely and GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE.
02
Battery supply shortage, zero profit of trams: self-developed and self-produced batteries, long-term optimal strategy of car companies
Gaogong Lithium Battery believes that car companies have been involved in battery research and development and manufacturing, and the "unavoidable" and "initiative" factors behind it are:
First, from the perspective of the value chain, power batteries account for more than 35% of the cost of electric vehicles, which is higher than the proportion of the power system of traditional fuel vehicles.
At the same time, compared with traditional fuel vehicles, the biggest change in electric vehicles is that the cost of core components and the degree of technical integration have been greatly improved, which has broken the supply architecture of traditional Tier1 and Tier2, forcing car companies to grasp the initiative including power batteries and intelligent driving across chains.
Second, from the perspective of technical products, the power battery is highly correlated with the performance of the whole vehicle, and car companies must develop more competitive model products and maintain a continuous lead, they must be deeply involved in the early research and development of the battery, specification definition and standard leadership, only by carrying out the collaborative design of vehicles and batteries, can we achieve lean development of models, and only in this way can we develop more differentiated and competitive model products, thereby ensuring the competitiveness of car companies in the competitiveness of the electrification track market.
Gaogong Lithium Battery believes that whether it is the cylindrical 4680 battery dominated by Tesla, or the square Unified cell dominated by Volkswagen, or the Ultium Cells dominated by GM, in a sense, it is to seize the standard dominance of the vehicle power battery. In this way, it not only ensures the differentiated competitiveness of its own products, but also seizes the right to define and dominate the automotive value chain.
Third, from the supply level, the "battery shortage" of electric vehicles is spreading around the world, and car companies want to obtain a stable and reliable battery supply, they must improve the control and discourse power of the supply chain.
According to GGII forecast, global power battery shipments will reach 1TWh in 2025. From the current supply side of the situation, there is still a large gap in the existing production capacity, so that the market supply has been in the seller's market, and car companies are still in a relatively passive role in the short term in this field.
In this context, in addition to strengthening the diversification of external suppliers, car companies are also involved in batteries, which is also an important way to reduce supply chain risks.
03
Self-developed and self-produced vision, a new "gap" in battery research and development
Although we have realized the importance and urgency of mastering the leading power of the battery link, for most domestic and foreign car companies, it is still facing no small challenge to quickly build the research and development capabilities of power batteries.
Different from the mechanical mechanism and electrical structure of car companies, the battery as an energy conversion device and its technology belongs to the field of electrochemistry, which means that the resources, experience and research and development system of existing automakers do not match the technology and talent structure required for the design and manufacture of batteries.
From the current actual situation in the battery field, the construction of the power battery research and development system and the construction of capabilities need to be accumulated for a long time, at the same time, battery manufacturing is a heavy asset investment, for car companies, not only in the research and development link needs to carry out a lot of investment, but also in the manufacturing, process and other aspects of the accumulation. In the existing way, whether it is in terms of manpower, financial resources or time investment is very large, it is impossible to keep up with the rhythm required for electrification.
At present, the world's leading power battery companies, almost all of the technology started in the field of consumer batteries, and the time accumulation lasted for more than 10 years. In terms of R&D investment, the number of R&D personnel of the enterprise is close to 10,000 people, accounting for nearly one-third of the total number of employees, and the annual R&D expenditure is more than 5 billion yuan.
In this context, it is obviously not realistic for car companies to form battery research and development capabilities by copying the old ideas and old methods of traditional battery companies.
Car companies do not have the time and opportunity to precipitate from 0 to 1 step by step like battery companies when they started, and it is impossible to immediately form a battery research and development team of tens of thousands of people.
For such new entrants, in order to quickly, efficiently and cost-effectively establish their own research and development capabilities and make up for the shortcomings of the battery link, it is necessary to introduce more forward-looking and efficient leapfrog technology to catch up.
04
Seize the opportunity of intergenerational innovation of battery research and development technology and expand the advantages of "latecomers"
The introduction of advanced tools and the rapid acquisition of the technical experience obtained by battery cell companies in the past 10 years of trial and error are an important consensus for car companies to enter the battery field, and it is also the specific technical path that most car companies are adopting.
Car companies involved in the field of battery research and development is in the context of such technological development: after more than ten years of accumulation, battery research and development is currently iterating from "experimental trial and error" to simulation-driven "forward design", through the use of advanced simulation design tools, to achieve a substantial jump in battery research and development efficiency, it is already possible to achieve.
In this process, the emerging suppliers of advanced battery research and development technology have ushered in this historical opportunity of "intergenerational innovation of battery research and development technology".
At the power battery sub-forum of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum held on March 27, Associate Professor Li Zhe of the School of Vehicles and Transportation of Tsinghua University delivered a keynote speech entitled "Advanced Design Technology and R&D Model Change of Power Battery", which clearly proposed that battery R&D technology is divided into three generations, namely:
The first-generation technology that is still dominant, experimental trial and error, is gradually being widely adopted by the second-generation technology - simulation-driven forward design, and the third generation of technology that has made early breakthroughs - intelligent fully automatic is replaced. In the next 3-8 years, through the leap of two generations of advanced methods and technologies, the efficiency of battery research and development is expected to be increased by 10-100 times.
This report hit the urgent needs of many domestic and foreign car companies at this stage and produced a series of important responses. Dr. Chen Xinhong, CEO of Elecote, a battery design technology and software supplier, told Gaogong Lithium Battery that many of the customers who have been in contact with and cooperating with the company since last year are vehicle companies or energy storage power station OEMs. Some car companies have purchased battery cell prototypes or invested in small battery factories, and some have finally decided to develop their own batteries after nearly 10 years of setting up battery research and development departments. Eleecott is helping these companies quickly acquire the core capabilities of self-developed and self-produced batteries and establish core technology anchors under the long-term strategy of electrification.
Gaogong Lithium Battery learned that as a Chinese enterprise with independent intellectual property rights, the battery development platform of E-Techde is helping car companies achieve rapid and efficient research and development of batteries.
For car companies, there are three main demands in the battery research and development process, one is to quickly establish a complete process of battery development, the other is to establish the core knowledge base of battery research and development and form a benign accumulation under the condition of near-zero foundation, and the third is how to use the most optimized talent investment to establish the ability of battery research and development and innovation.
With the help of E-Techde's simulation design platform, car companies can quickly establish advanced R&D processes and systems through standardized R&D processes that have been solidified, combined with their own differentiated characteristics.
The simulation platform of E-Lecter covers the complete process of cell design and development, from product planning, index input and decomposition, demand sorting, rapid calculation, to material balance, performance simulation, trial production, and then to program finalization, cell certification, and mass production. Based on this, it can quickly help car companies sort out and establish the R&D process, realize the development of new models of batteries, continue to accumulate core knowledge and standardize the management procedures involved during the period.
To establish rapid research and development capabilities, the premise is to have the accumulation of battery materials and processes, for car companies, only relying on their own exploration, not only difficult, but also a long cycle.
The tool platform of Easyclea Can provide a complete core knowledge base for car companies and help car companies grasp the existing mature resources in battery research and development. Standardized thermodynamic parameter library, kinetic parameter library, aging parameter library, etc., can fully empower the battery cell design and help car companies quickly and effectively establish the ability of battery cell design and development.
Unlike other tools in the industry, E-Techtech's cell simulation tool platform has a high-precision electrochemical mechanism model and a dedicated solver, which can accurately reflect the real physical and chemical state of the battery, crack the design gene, and accurately predict the battery performance.
With the help of Elekote's simulation design tools, from the formulation selection of key materials such as positive and negative electrodes, electrolytes, and diaphragms, to the selection and setting of process parameters, virtual verification and iteration can be carried out through simulation, supporting enterprises to quickly complete product development. In the R&D cycle, the original 8 to 36 months of R&D cycle can be greatly shortened to several months or even weeks.
At the same time, through the empowerment of platform + digitalization, car companies can break the traditional battery man-sea tactics in battery research and development, which is more feasible and significantly reduces the overall investment.
Gao Gong learned that a number of domestic car companies are cooperating with E-Lekede to use this digital research and development platform to establish battery research and development capabilities.
Taking the cooperation between Geely Automobile and Elekote as an example, according to the agreement reached between the two parties, Elekot will provide Geely Automobile with an overall solution from specific model design to digital platform construction. The solution leverages Elekott's core technologies in the fields of "positive design for battery simulation" and "smart optimization" to help vehicle companies establish independent R&D capabilities including processes, systems and talents while obtaining the required high-performance battery cell solutions. Elecotec's digital platform will not only provide application tools such as design, electrochemical-thermal-life performance simulation, fast charge analysis and loading performance, but also build geely automobile's own knowledge base of materials, processes, testing and comparison.
In addition, in the third generation of technology of fully automatic intelligent design, EasyLeekot is also taking forward-looking actions. The first unmanned, automated and intelligent large-scale model design experiment in the power battery industry initiated by Elekede is challenging the limits of R&D efficiency. A number of enterprises, including Hive Energy, have reached relevant cooperation intentions with Elekede to launch new explorations for the next generation of intelligent technologies.
epilogue
Facing the next decade, for car companies, it is extremely critical to grasp the initiative of power battery technology, which will determine what role they play in the industrial chain. This means that companies seeking leading technology can obtain leapfrog technology support through digital and intelligent platforms to help them achieve their strategic goals.
Under the goal of carbon neutrality, the global transportation and energy field is undergoing profound changes, power batteries are the center of this change, facing the new industrial cycle, the layout of car companies in the field of power batteries will continue to increase, and Chinese technology companies represented by EasyLeikede will rely on their own solutions to empower domestic and foreign car companies to build their "initiative" in the field of core components.