background
A few days ago, the Texas factory announced that it is equipped with a standard four-wheel drive version of the ModelY equipped with a 4680 battery, with a surface endurance of about 450 kilometers (EPA), and it is speculated that if the Shanghai factory produces a rear-wheel drive version of the ModelY4680, the endurance may be about 480 kilometers. I myself am struggling with whether to wait for the 4680 battery, and some fans have also asked, this article is analyzed according to the existing information.
issue
There are several main issues to consider:
One. Core question: Will 4680 be marked?
Two. Core question: When will 4680 come to China?
Three. Extension: Why is the domestic standard continuation 3/Y lithium iron phosphate?
Four. Addendum: What is 4680 (46800)? And what are the advantages of the 4680?
Detailed analysis
One. Will 4680 be marked?
First of all, the conclusion: according to the analysis of the information available at present, it will not be until 2025
Tesla made it clear last year that lithium iron phosphate batteries (LFP) are important companion batteries for Tesla's models. Of course, we can't just look at what he says, but also how he does. From the perspective of actual action, Tesla and CATL signed a 4-year power battery order, from 2022 to 2025, the domestic Tesla Model3/Y rear-wheel drive model (standard continuation) is equipped with lithium iron phosphate in the Ningde era, and the ternary lithium battery for long-term and high-performance versions is supported by South Korea's LG. Therefore, Tesla is most likely to be a dual-track system of 4680 batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries.
In addition, the current mass production efficiency of 4680 batteries is climbing, and the current 4680 Model Y produced by the Texas factory is only 1000 vehicles, compared with the delivery of tens of thousands of vehicles, the number is still too small. From this point of view, lithium iron phosphate batteries will also continue to play an important role in the base model .
Compare the differences in production models at Tesla's three main factories:
Shanghai factory: the size is only 1/10 of the Texas factory, the battery is 2170 or lithium iron phosphate, the rear body is integrated die-cast, and the model is mainly Model 3/Y;
Berlin plant: 2170 battery, front and rear integrated die-cast body, the current model is mainly ModelY;
Texas plant: 4680 battery, front and rear integrated die-cast body, CTC structure battery pack, model is mainly ModelY, the future is expected to increase Roadster2, Cybertruck;
At present, the process of the Shanghai factory is the most backward, and it is not feasible to immediately go to the 4680, and it is necessary to support related capabilities such as the one-piece die casting of the front body.
There is also the second phase of the expansion of the Shanghai factory on the Internet, there is no specific news to show the scale and content of the expansion, from the perspective of development to speculate, since the big goal is 4680 battery + front and rear integrated die-casting body, and the Dezhou factory has been verified to mature related technologies, then the Shanghai factory expansion probability will be 4680 + front and rear integrated die-casting body, there is no need to create intermediate products to transition, which does not meet the principle of economy & efficiency. Unless the factory is converted from an intermediate to a 4680 related production line process is very simple.
Overall, lithium iron phosphate batteries will remain the main choice for Tesla's after-drive version (standard continuation), and the long-endurance and high-performance versions will gradually switch from 2170 cylindrical batteries to 4680 batteries. In addition, Musk revealed that Cybertruck and Roadster2 will also start production next year, pickup truck Cyberruck is also a large consumer of 4680, it needs more batteries, Cybertruck orders are also very large, about 1.4 million orders worldwide.
Two. When does 4680 come to China?
Let's start with the conclusion: optimistic speculation is that in the middle and late part of next year, the pessimistic time will be even later
Analyze the reasons:
1. The current 4680 battery has just come off the production line, the overall production capacity climbing takes time, and the current Texas factory has made it clear that this year's 4680 battery will give priority to meeting the North American market, and next year there will be pickup trucks, Roadster2 to take a considerable part of the battery production capacity.
The 2.4680 battery requires an integrated die-casting body, and the Shanghai plant does not currently have a new integrated die-casting machine and related production lines. The new production line construction related stages include battery mass production, vehicle trial production, capacity climbing, etc., although there have been Texas factories to explore the way, but this process still has to have, it takes a certain amount of time.
3. Due to the current impact of the epidemic, the overall plan of the Shanghai plant in the future may be postponed.
4. Battery problems are not expected to be very large, LG and Samsung have completed the research and development of 4680 battery samples, CATL plans to mass-produce 4680 batteries in 2022, this piece is to see who is fast, who can get Tesla's orders. However, raw material prices and supply may affect the production speed.
In summary, if the 4680s are optimistic about the domestic middle of next year, the pessimistic words may be even later.
Three. Why is the domestic standard continuation 3/Y lithium iron phosphate?
1. The main reason is that local materials can be directly purchased in the country, the principle of economic application, the overall simplicity and cheapness.
2. On the other hand, the domestic as a whole is more concerned about the phenomenon of spontaneous combustion of batteries, and lithium iron phosphate is safer, which is also its clear advantage.
Four. What's 4680? And what are the advantages of the 4680?
4680 is a battery with a diameter of 46 mm and a height of 80 mm, so it is called a 4680 battery.
advantage:
1. Fast charging. It is expected to charge 80% in 15 minutes; compared with the 2170 battery, the 4680 battery has greatly increased the battery power (6 times that of the 2170 battery) through the change of the polar ear structure. And through the electrodeless ear to reduce the internal resistance, more conducive to heat dissipation. So the charging speed will be much higher, which is a blessing for running long distances.
2. Battery life increased. The size of the battery becomes larger, the structural strength increases, and the CTC technology is more perfectly integrated. The 4680 is larger in size and stronger in structure, and the battery becomes part of the car structure, saving space and reducing weight (about 10%) and improving cruising range (about 14%)
3. Cost reduction. Compared with the 2170, the 4680 is larger in size, reducing the proportion of the housing in the unit battery capacity, and the number of structural parts and welds is also significantly reduced, reducing the battery cost by 14% while optimizing production efficiency.
In addition, the 4680 battery has further room for improvement in energy density and cycle performance.
conclusion
Conclusions are given by case (for reference only):
If not bad money: then what else to consider, direct intimidation, high-end optional, all arranged;
If there is no fixed charging position: still consider the tram and do not rush to use the car, you can wait for 4680 long battery life, so that the charge is used for a long time, the charging speed is fast, and the number of troubles is reduced.
Do not rush to use the car, the existing endurance / charging speed is not satisfied with the 4680 long endurance.
Recommended pick-up situation:
1. I have an order for the ModelY/3 rear-wheel drive version (resale), reason: The 4680 on the resale is not seen for a short time
2. Earlier long endurance / high-performance car orders, want to mention can still be directly picked up, enjoy up (there is a saying called: thousands of gold is difficult to buy I like, like on. Life is short, you should enjoy it). Another reason is that from now on, even if the 4680 model is mass-produced next year, it is more difficult to reduce the price in two years (chip shortage, rising raw material prices, production line transformation cost recovery, 4680 production capacity bottleneck, supply and demand relationship), and there is still uncertainty.
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