(Report Producer/Author: Kaiyuan Securities, Wu Liuyan)
1. Tesla: the forerunner of electric vehicles and a full-stack self-developed new energy company
1.1. Development history: industrial chain integration to enhance the company's competitiveness
Tesla is the largest electric vehicle and solar energy company in the United States, with its main businesses in electric vehicle sales and leasing business, energy and energy storage business, services and other businesses. Founded in 2003, the company was listed on the NASDAQ on June 29, 2010, the company began delivery of the Model S in 2012, and entered the European and Chinese markets in 2013. In 2014, the company entered into a partnership agreement with Panasonic to build a Gigafactory in Nevada. In 2015, the company pushed Tesla V7.0 version, unlocked autosteer (automatic assisted steering) and other assisted driving functions in Auto Pilot, and then registered Tesla China in Shanghai in 2018, while the Shanghai factory began trial production in 2019. According to Clean Technica data disclosure, Tesla will deliver a total of 935,950 new energy vehicles in 2021, the largest delivery volume of new energy vehicle companies in the world, and the market share is about 14%.
Since its establishment, Tesla has improved its production capacity and core technology accumulation by acquiring companies in different fields. On the production side, Tesla acquired companies such as Riviera Tool, Grohmann Engineering, Perbix Machine and Hibar Systems, covering mold stamping, machine engineering, automation equipment manufacturing and battery pack assembly, etc.; on the technology side, the company acquired SolarCity, Maxwell and DeepScale, respectively. Solar energy and autonomous driving technologies have strengthened the company's strength.
1.2, management: full of innovative technical thinking, continuous high research and development to ensure that the technology is leading
Tesla is a new energy company with innovation and technology genes. CEO Musk has entrepreneurial experience in the Internet software and new energy industry. Some executives graduated from hard-core majors at prestigious universities (such as Stanford University's energy systems engineering and power electronics technology-based engineering majors) and have excellent technical precipitation.
CEO Musk: Innovative thinking, many entrepreneurial experiences. Musk has founded web software company Zip2, third-party payment platform PayPal, space technology company SpaceX and solar energy company SolarCity, most of which have been bought at high prices, including Zip2 acquired by Compaq for $370 million in 1999 and EBay for $1.5 billion in 2002 PayPal. To some extent, the successful entrepreneurial experience reflects Musk's innovative thinking, and innovation is also Tesla's more prominent gene.
Co-founder and CTO JB Stroubel: A graduate of Stanford University with a Bachelor of Science degree in Energy Systems Engineering and a Master's Degree in Mechanics in Energy Engineering from Stanford University, he founded aerospace airline Volacom in 2002 and served as its CTO before joining Tesla in 2004.
Andrew Baglino, Senior Vice President of Powertrain and Energy Engineering: Graduated from Stanford University with a Bachelor of Electrical Engineering. He joined Tesla in 2006 and was Engineering Director at Tesla Energy, where he designed the Model S's dual-motor system and powertrain control algorithms.
The founder's rich entrepreneurial experience and the technical background of the executives determine that the company attaches importance to innovation and adopts a strategy of high R&D investment, and the R&D investment continues to be ahead of the back-row manufacturers, which helps to maintain the leading position in technology. In terms of R&D investment, the company's R&D expenses in 2019 decreased slightly, and then showed an overall upward trend, with R&D expenses of 16.54 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 74% over 9.51 billion yuan in 2020. Compared with the new domestic car-making forces, Tesla's research and development expenses are far ahead, tesla's research and development expenses will reach 16.54 billion yuan in 2021, while the domestic research and development expenses of Weilai, Ideal and Xiaopeng will be 4.59 billion yuan, 3.29 billion yuan and 4.11 billion yuan, respectively.
Tesla's equity and voting rights are relatively dispersed, with Musk holding 23% of the shares. As of June 30, 2021, Musk, The Vanguard Group, Blackrock, and Capital Ventures International held 23.1%, 5.9%, 5.1%, and 5.0%, respectively. Unlike domestic new power enterprises, Tesla's voting rights are relatively dispersed, and CEO Musk only has 23.1% of the voting rights; while the ideal Li Xiang, Xiaopeng's He Xiaopeng and Weilai's Li Bin have 69.59%, 64.6%, and 39% of the voting rights respectively, and the CEO occupies a stronger dominant position in internal business decisions.
1.3, market positioning: the starting high-end occupies the user's mind, the price sinking drive significantly increased
Tesla's product strategy starts at the high end and preempts the user's mind in advance. In the early stage of the development of the new energy automobile industry, due to the relative immaturity of the overall industrial chain, the production cost is high, so the company preempts the user's mind in advance by launching relatively high-end products with relatively high prices. Tesla's first three models are all high-end models priced at more than $80,000. Tesla launched the Roadster, a high-end all-electric sports car, priced at more than $100,000 in November 2008; the Model S, a C-Class sedan, priced at about $80,000 to $100,000 in June 2012; and the Model X in 2015, priced at $80,000-$120,000.
Based on advanced manufacturing technology to achieve a gradual decline in production costs, the company launched affordable products, to achieve price sinking, driving a significant increase in delivery volume. Based on the company's CTP technology, integrated die casting technology and the scale effect of rising deliveries, production costs have gradually declined, helping the company to launch more affordable products. In 2017 Tesla launched the model 3, when the base price of $35,000, the model uses Tesla's latest CTP technology, compared to Tesla's traditional solution, the number of modules in the company's large module solution fell by about 70%, the number of vehicle parts decreased by 10%, the overall battery cost fell from $185 /kWh to $170/kWh, in order to offset the upstream cost pressure, Tesla gradually increased prices, and now the latest price is about 47,000-63,000 US dollars; in 2020, Tesla launched the model Y, when the price was 40,000-60,000 US dollars, Model Y used Tesla's latest one-piece die-casting after the floor assembly technology, integrated die casting technology will be all parts of the die-casting molding, the number of parts is reduced by 79 compared with the Model 3, the number of solder joints is reduced from 700-800 to 50, the weight of the body assembly is reduced by 30%, so the manufacturing cost is reduced by 40%, and the latest price is now about 63,000-68,000 US dollars. In summary, Tesla has achieved a significant reduction in manufacturing costs through advanced production technology and helped the launch of its affordable products.
The share of relatively affordable Model 3/Y deliveries has increased year by year, from 2% in 2017 to 97% in 2021. At the same time, Tesla's total deliveries have achieved rapid growth, from 103,020 in 2017 to 935,950 in 2021, with a CAGR of 74% in 2017-2021. (Source: Future Think Tank)
2. Product ideas: full-stack self-research to ensure technical and cost advantages, focusing on ADAS and three electric, diluted interior and intelligent cockpit
Tesla's product design ideas: pay attention to the overall cost control, implement minimalism in the interior, and focus on intelligent driving and electrification. Tesla's three-electric technology and intelligent technology are self-developed; on the cost side, the company implements minimalism in perception hardware and interior to further control costs. On the technical side, since smart cars are products with high coupling of software and hardware, self-research can better combine software and hardware, which is conducive to technology iteration. The company's intelligent driving system and intelligent cockpit are self-developed, which is conducive to technical iteration, according to the statistics of the car number, Tesla FSD 2021 a total of 8 large version updates, small version + FSD Beta has nearly 130 pushes, and the domestic new forces in the ideal new 6 times, Xiaopeng, Weilai, zero run software have 5 updates.
2.1. Three electric: full stack self-research, continuous cost reduction and efficiency increase
Tesla's comprehensive performance in the field of battery cells, battery packs, and battery management is excellent, and the Model 3 is equipped with a low battery capacity, but the unit endurance is ahead of comparable models at the same price; BMS technology is leading, and the power consumption index of tons and 100 kilometers is outstanding in the new energy models at the same price; the existing charging efficiency is temporarily lagging behind, but it is expected to reach the industry-leading level after the overcharge network is updated.
Battery life is mainly affected by battery cells, battery pack technology, battery management technology, benefiting from Tesla's technology accumulation in battery cells, battery packs and battery management, the company's battery unit endurance is ahead of domestic car companies, Tesla unit endurance of 9.6 km / kwh, Krypton, Xiaopeng and BYD are 7.1, 8.3, 7.9km / kwh, respectively.
(1) Battery: self-developed 4680 battery
Tesla originally only used ternary lithium batteries, and then introduced lithium iron phosphate batteries to achieve battery cost reduction. The company currently has three battery suppliers, of which CATL supplies lithium iron phosphate batteries to Tesla, and Panasonic and LG Chemical supply ternary lithium batteries to Tesla. Compared with lithium iron phosphate batteries, ternary lithium batteries have a higher energy density, lithium iron phosphate batteries monomer energy density is about 180Wh/kg, while ternary lithium batteries monomer energy density can reach 250Wh/kg and above, while the low temperature performance of ternary lithium batteries is also better than lithium iron phosphate batteries. Tesla originally only used ternary lithium batteries, but with the decline of ternary lithium battery subsidies, the cost advantage of lithium iron phosphate batteries became prominent, and Tesla began to use lithium iron phosphate batteries on some models. In the third quarter of 2021, Tesla announced that its standard endurance upgrade Model 3 and standard endurance Model Y will use lithium iron phosphate batteries worldwide.
Tesla's self-developed 4680 battery, achieving a 5-fold increase in battery capacity, is expected to increase the mileage and achieve cost reduction, and has been officially delivered in April 2022. On September 22, 2020, Tesla launched a new 4680 battery, the new 4680 battery using omnipolar ear, dry battery technology, compared to Tesla's current use of 21700 battery, the new 4680 battery battery capacity increased by 5 times, output power increased by 6 times, is expected to increase the car's mileage by 16%, cost reduction of 14%. At present, the company's 4680 battery is relatively mature, and the first Model Y equipped with 4680 batteries has been officially delivered in April 2022.
(2) Battery pack: CTC technology is used
In 2022, it is expected to use more integrated CTC technology to improve the efficiency of weight grouping and space utilization, and reduce the number of parts to achieve cost reduction and efficiency. In 2017, Tesla used the large module plan for the first time on the Model 3, compared with the 16 modules in the original Model S traditional solution, the overall number of Model 3 modules using the large module solution dropped to 4, in addition, its battery pack parts were 10% less than the number of parts in the traditional solution, so the weight of the Model 3 battery pack was 15% lighter than the original Model S battery pack, and the large module solution could reduce the cost and improve the endurance by reducing the overall number of parts and the weight of the battery pack.
Tesla launched CTC technology for 4680 batteries in 2022, and the use of body-integrated die-casting and CTC technology is expected to reduce the weight of new cars by 10%, endurance by 14%, and body parts by 370. Compared with CTP technology, the weight group efficiency of CTC technology is more than 90%, which is higher than 80%-85% of CTP; while the space utilization rate of CTC technology is more than 70%, which is higher than 60% of CTP technology; the number of parts CTC is about 400 parts, which is lower than the 470 parts of CTP technology. The Model Y, which is equipped with a 4680 battery and A CTC chassis, has officially rolled off the production line and has been officially delivered in the United States in April 2022.
(3) BMS: Leading technology, tonnage and 100 kilometers of power consumption index in the same price of new energy models outstanding performance
BMS has three main functions, including battery protection, energy balancing, and SOC computing functions. Battery protection function is mainly to prevent overcharge, overdischarge, overtemperature, overcurrent, when the battery temperature and current is too high, the system will automatically cut off the current path, to ensure the safety of the battery and the system; the energy balance function is mainly to make up for the difference between individual cells, to do some active or passive charge and discharge management, to ensure the consistency of the battery, prolong the life of the battery; SOC calculation function is to calculate the power more finely, so that the system more accurately perceive the power change.
Tesla's self-developed battery management system adopts the master-slave architecture design, the main controller (BMU) is responsible for high voltage, insulation detection, high-voltage interlock, contactor control, external communication and other functions; the slave controller (BMB) is responsible for the single voltage, temperature detection, and reporting to the BMU. Compared with other vehicles at the same price, Tesla's power consumption per ton 100 kilometers is 5.9kwh/ton, which is similar to that of Extreme Krypton, which is lower than the 6.2kwh/ton and 6.3kwh/ton of Xiaopeng P7 and BYD, highlighting the superior performance of Tesla's battery management system.
(4) Fast charging: Using high-current technology, the charging efficiency is expected to be improved after the overcharge network is updated
Tesla's existing charging speed is slightly insufficient compared with the current fast charging technology, but it is expected to reach the industry-leading level after the supercharging network update. Tesla launched a high-current V3 supercharger in 2019, which can achieve a maximum charging power of 250KW and achieve a maximum supplementary range of 250 kilometers for 15 minutes of charging, while the charging device will not divert current, and every vehicle in the network can use the maximum power charge. Compared with the Porsche fast charging technology launched in the same year, Tesla's charging efficiency is slightly lower than Porsche's 5mins/100KM; compared with Hyundai, Huawei and Geely, which launched large-voltage overcharging technology this year, it is still insufficient.
Musk mentioned in July 2021 that Tesla is currently updating the Supercharger V3 network, and its maximum output power will be increased from the current 250KW to 300KW, and Tesla's charging efficiency is expected to reach 5mins/161km at a maximum charging rate of 300KW, reaching the industry-leading level. At present, the large-voltage scheme has a faster charging technology in theory, but due to the long completion cycle, Tesla still uses a high-current fast charging route in the short and medium term. Compared with the domestic mainstream large voltage scheme, the research and development of the large current scheme is more difficult, but the completion cycle is shorter, only need to change the battery carrier, the difficulty of the development of the large voltage scheme is low, but the completion cycle is longer, and it is necessary to link the upstream and downstream supply chains to carry out large-voltage transformation of the three-electric system.
The high-current fast-charging route tests battery thermal management, and Tesla will face greater challenges in thermal management. Tesla currently uses high-current fast charging technology, that is, to increase the current to increase the charging power while keeping the voltage unchanged, at a voltage of 400V, the charging power of 250A current is 100KW, and the charging power of 500A current is 200KW. According to the thermal formula Q=I2R=UI, the heat generated by the high current is higher than the raised voltage in the case of the same output power, so the high current technology will put forward higher requirements for the thermal management of the battery.
2.2, Interior: Minimalism reflects Tesla's cost control strategy
Tesla adopts minimalism in the interior to better control costs, without equipped with a full LCD dashboard, mood lights, car air purifier, and the seat material is imitation leather instead of genuine leather. In terms of dashboards, BYD Han, Xiaopeng P7 and JiKr 001, which are similar to Tesla's price, all use full LCD dashboards; in terms of seat material, in addition to Tesla's imitation leather, the rest of the comparable models use higher price leather; in terms of interior atmosphere, BYD Han, Xiaopeng P7 and Extreme Kr 001 are equipped with multi-colored interior mood lights, and are also equipped with on-board air purifiers.
2.3. Smart Cockpit: Switch to AMD solutions, taking into account hardware upgrades and cost control
There is a gap between the hardware level of Tesla's second-generation intelligent cockpit and the new domestic car manufacturing forces, and the computing power gap between its smart cockpit chip GPU is large. Tesla in the second generation of cockpit domain controllers using Intel's Atom A3950 as a smart cockpit chip, compared with the Qualcomm 820A used by new domestic forces, AtomA3950 has a large difference in GPU computing power, with a computing power of 187GFLOPS, which is lower than the 588GFLOPS of Weilai, Ideal, and Xiaopeng.
Tesla uses the AMD solution in the latest Model S and domestic Model Y Performance, 2022 model 3/Y, the performance is greatly improved compared with the second-generation cockpit domain controller, and the hardware upgrade is expected to improve the performance of Tesla's smart cockpit. Tesla's latest AMD solution uses AMD Ryzen™ chips, compared with the second generation of the Intel AtomeA3950 chip, its GPU computing power is as high as 10TFLOPS, about 53 times the second generation of computing power, while its display and memory are 8GB and 10GB, higher than the second generation of Intel AtomeA3950 4GB, we believe that Tesla's hardware upgrades are expected to bring about an improvement in the intelligent cockpit experience.
At present, the Tesla smart cockpit implements the following functions:
(1) Car sleep: Tesla can automatically turn off the display when the owner leaves the car, achieving energy-saving effects.
(2) Voice control: The voice command module uses a natural language processor to parse and identify the owner's voice request, not limited to a specific statement, and then convert it into a vehicle executable operation instruction, the owner can use voice control to implement temperature control, vehicle control, telephone and other functions.
(3) Energy application: Can directly display the forecast range on the energy chart, visually highlight the relationship between the forecast range and energy consumption, by default, the "instant" estimated range will be displayed, reflecting the consumption of the last 1/10 mile.
(4) Software upgrade: Can provide software upgrade function, the specific upgrade notice will be displayed in the screen.
(5) Remote start: The owner can start the Model S only with a smartphone. Can be used when the owner loses their car keys, accessible through the Tesla mobile app, and requires a password to be entered each time.
(6) Power Management Options: New power management options will enable the Model S to enter energy saving mode at night to help maximize the use of available energy. There's also an option to let the Tesla mobile app always connect to the car immediately, while still saving electricity.
Differences in the level of smart cockpit hardware may have contributed to The unsatisfactory performance of Tesla's smart cockpit before the chip replacement, with ModelY ranking 33rd overall in The Pacific Automotive's Smart Cockpit Review in 2021. Pacific Motors' smart cockpit ratings are evaluated around screen effects, vehicle-machine performance, voice interaction, and intelligent advanced needs, while Tesla Model Y's smart cockpit ranking is 33.
The Tesla Model Y scored 8 points in the screen effect evaluation, ranking 6th among the smart cockpit models participating in the review, especially the screen size and resolution performance. The evaluation of screen effects is mainly evaluated around four aspects: screen size, screen resolution, viewing angle/ brightness, and anti-scratch and anti-fingerprint coating. Among them, the screen size of Model Y is 15 inches, the screen resolution > 1280 * 720, in the screen size and screen resolution are both full scores, and in the viewing angle / brightness and scratch-resistant anti-fingerprint coating test, due to the presence of some reflections and fine scratches on the screen, so the two scores are not full scores, 2 points and 1 point, respectively. Tesla scored 8 points in this score, ranking 6th among the smart cockpits participating in the review.
Tesla ModelY scored 28 points in the performance score of the car, ranking 30th in the participating smart cockpit, there is still a lot of room for improvement; it performed well in the feature richness of the dashboard, UI interaction design and central control screen function evaluation, but it was poor in the scalability of mobile phone interconnection. The evaluation of vehicle performance mainly focuses on the ease of use/interactive design of the car, the function of the central control screen & the experience effect, and the richness and extensibility of the dashboard function. Model Y performed well in dashboard feature richness, central control screen function & experience effect, and ease of use/UI interaction design, and received full marks in many evaluations such as music player convenience, energy consumption information display, and online map. However, in terms of scalability, Model Y has poor availability, does not support the mapping of Android and Apple systems, nor does it support wireless mapping, and only gets 0 points out of 7 points.
Tesla ModelY scored only 16 points in the voice interaction evaluation, ranking 39th among the participating smart cockpits; the speed of recognition of voice commands is slower, and there is still a lot of room for improvement in error correction. Speech interaction evaluation mainly focuses on the implementation of conventional functions, recognition speed, error correction ability, semantic association ability and other aspects of evaluation. In terms of conventional function implementation and recognition speed, Model Y can recognize voice commands such as air conditioning, music, and navigation, but the recognition speed is slower and does not support voice control windows. At the same time, the Model Y voice has no feedback after the recognition is successful, and the entire recognition execution process is completed silently. In terms of error correction ability, the system failed to recognize the instructions of the Chinese Simplified, and the recognition of Cantonese barely passed. In terms of semantic association, Model Y has higher requirements for semantic speed, and in the 6 instructions tested, 2 instructions related to navigation can be recognized and executed, while the instructions for air conditioning and cross-function are intelligently recognized and cannot be executed.
The Tesla Model Y performed well in the Intelligent Advanced Needs Assessment, scoring 9 out of 10 and ranking 4th among the smart cockpits in the competition. The intelligent advanced demand evaluation mainly focuses on the function update of the car and the remote control function of the mobile phone. Tesla performed well in the review. Model Y supports FOTA machine update and on-board fun functions, while the owner can remotely override the car through the mobile phone to achieve the function of opening the window, remote control of the air conditioner and parking.
2.4. Intelligent driving: Software and hardware full-stack self-research, intelligent driving ability in the world leading
2.4.1. Decision-making layer: The computing power advantage of the self-developed chip is obvious, which helps the software algorithm to iterate faster
Tesla's self-developed chip has obvious computing power advantages, helping the company's software algorithm to iterate more quickly. Smart cars are highly coupled products with hardware and software, and self-research helps products to develop software and hardware in a coordinated manner, reduce the dependence of technology suppliers, and accelerate the speed of technology iteration. According to the statistics of Chejia, Tesla FSD 2021 pushed a total of 8 major version updates, small version + FSD Beta has nearly 130 pushes, while the new domestic forces in the ideal update 6 times, Xiaopeng, Weilai, zero run software have 5 updates.
Tesla used a self-developed FSD processing platform in 2019 HW3.0, with a single chip hash rate of 72TOPS and a final force (dual chip) of 144TOPS. With the increase of the level of automatic driving, the required chip computing power will increase tens of times, the computing power required for L2 level automatic driving is 2-2.5TOPS, the computing power required for L3 level automatic driving is 20-30TOPS, the computing power required for L4 level is 100TOPS+, the computing power required for L5 level is more than 1000TOPS+, and tesla's computing power can meet L4 level of automatic driving, compared with models at the same price, Tesla's hashing power is significantly better, higher than Xiaopeng P7 and Extreme Kr 001 30TOPS vs 48TOPS. It is expected that in 2022, Tesla will apply the newly developed FSD chip in HW4.0, which is expected to reach 216TOPS and reduce power consumption by 65% compared with the previous generation of chips.
2.4.2, perception layer: adopt a pure visual solution to help cost control
Tesla uses a pure vision solution dominated by cameras and equipped with low-cost sensors such as millimeter-wave radar.
Pure vision solutions offer advantages in terms of data fusion and applicability. In terms of data fusion, the use of different sensors is more likely to have data fusion problems than pure visual solutions, when different sensor perceptions are inconsistent, the system will be confused with the environment and data judgment, resulting in security issues; in terms of applicability, pure visual solutions are more applicable, high-precision maps + lidar solutions have relatively large geographical restrictions, such as Google's waymo can only be unmanned in the places covered by Google high-precision maps.
The disadvantages of pure vision solutions are safety and difficulty in development. In terms of safety, the camera relies on ambient lighting, is susceptible to harsh environmental influences, and cannot intuitively judge the depth of field, which is prone to safety problems when the weather is bad. In terms of research and development difficulty, Tesla's chief AI scientist Karpathy said at the 2021 CVPR 2021 Autonomous Driving Seminar that the vision-based autonomous driving solution is more difficult to implement in terms of technology, because it requires a neural network to run very well based on video input alone. Based on massive data accumulation and supercomputer neural network training, Tesla is expected to continue to accelerate the optimization of its algorithms and gradually overcome application difficulties.
In terms of perception layer hardware, due to Tesla's intelligent driving using a pure vision scheme, its models still do not need to be equipped with lidar. Compared with the new energy model at the same price, Tesla has a lower number of sensors. The Model 3 has only 21 sensors (including a total of 8 cameras, 12 ultrasonic radars and 1 millimeter wave radar), 28 below the similar price point of the Kr 001 and 31 of the Xiaopeng P7, and the conservative number of sensors further reflects Tesla's cost control concept.
2.4.3. ADAS algorithm: Accelerate algorithm iteration based on massive data + self-developed supercomputer
Tesla is one of the automakers developing self-driving technology, and its advantage lies in having massive data and advanced computers to strengthen neural network training.
(1) Massive data
Tesla cars equipped with the Autopilot system have driven more than 2.2 billion miles in 2020, while domestic WEILAI has exceeded 100 million kilometers of autonomous driving data at the end of 2020, and Xiaopeng Motors announced that its NGP (Navigation Assisted Driving) users have driven more than 5 million kilometers in total in May 2021, both of which are far less data accumulation than Tesla. Data is extremely important for autonomous driving, a large amount of data to help the rapid iteration of autonomous driving technology, and the improvement of intelligent software applications to help sales growth, and then form a positive cycle.
(2) Self-developed supercomputer to strengthen neural network training
In August 2021, Tesla announced the self-developed supercomputer Dojo, Dojo built Tesla's self-developed AI chip D1, a single D1 has a peak has 362TFLOPS, power consumption does not exceed 400W. The 3,000-chip D1 chip cabinet ExaPOD hash rate of up to 1.1EFLOPS, making it the world's fastest AI training computer.
2.4.4, FSD payment rate: FSD prices are gradually rising, and there is still a lot of room for improvement in the payment rate
According to TroyTeslike statistics, Tesla's FSD payment rate in 2016Q4 to 2021Q2 showed a trend of first rising and then falling, 2021Q2 FSD payment rate of 11%, due to the high price of FSD led to low payment rate, the future with the increase in FSD functions and user acceptance of ADAS, FSD payment rate is expected to increase again. Tesla's FSD penetration increased from 12.2% in the fourth quarter of 2016 to 46.0% in the second quarter of 2019, followed by 11% in the second quarter of 2021. In 2019, the popularity of the FSD suite ushered in a substantial increase, mainly due to Tesla's migration of the enhanced Autopilot feature to the FSD suite; then the payment rate of the 2019Q3 FSD began to decline significantly, and we believe that the main reason is that Tesla has increased the price of FSD, which has gradually increased from $5,000 in March 2019 to $12,000 in January 2022, an increase of 140%.
2.4.5, automatic driving evaluation: assisted driving ability is leading, automatic parking level is slightly weaker
At present, Tesla's autopilot mainly contains the following functions:
(1) Automatic lane change
When driving on the highway, automatic lane change positions the car in the best lane to prepare for parallels and exits when overtaking. Gives the driver a clear picture of upcoming lane changes and customization of automatic lane changes.
（2）NOA
Autonomous driving from a highway entrance ramp to an exit ramp. Includes features such as automatic lane changes, traffic-aware cruise control with full stop and new engagement, automatic steering, and vehicles that exceed slow travel.
(3) Automatic parking
Vertical and parallel parking are currently possible. Cars continuously monitor the surrounding space as they travel below 15 mph, alerting owners to available parking spaces.
(4) Summoning
Activated by the Tesla app, the car will find the owner anywhere in the parking lot, and can even park itself or unpark in a small space. The feature can be used in complex parking situations while obeying lane markings and stop signs, avoiding pedestrians and obstacles such as traffic cones, bins, and shopping carts.
(5) Traffic lights and stop sign control
Upon detection of traffic lights or stop signs and deceleration or stopping is performed.
Tesla's leading self-driving technology is reflected in the evaluation. In the car evaluation of Garage 42, Tesla performed well in the three major scoring items of basic driving assistance ability, guided driving ability, and automatic parking, which were first, second and sixth.
Tesla's basic driving ability is excellent, ranking first in the 42Mark review, of which lane keeping ability, cornering ability and automatic auxiliary lane change ability are more prominent. The evaluation of basic assisted driving ability is mainly based on the car's curve ability, lane keeping ability, special scene experience, and congestion scene experience. Tesla performed well in the cornering ability test, and was able to smoothly pass the three major curves of Devil's Bend, High Speed Bend and S Bend, all three of which were full marks. At the same time, Tesla also performed well in lane keeping, with full marks for its night lane keeping ability, rainy lane keeping ability and medium and high-speed lane keeping ability.
However, Tesla's interactive experience is relatively weak, in the driver state detection, Tesla mainly through the steering wheel torque sensor to perceive the driver's driving state, the driver by twisting the steering wheel or pressing the button on the steering wheel to make the car perceive the presence of the driver, but the overall perception effect is weak, the driver for a long time after the hands off the steering wheel after the car has induction.
Tesla's performance in guided driving is outstanding, ranking second in the 42Mark review, of which the lane change overtaking strategy is more prominent. The evaluation of the driving ability by navigation assistance mainly focuses on the range of use of the car, the ramp through the ability, the lane change overtaking strategy and the interactive experience. Compared with assisted driving, the navigation assisted driving function can control the acceleration, braking and lane change operation of the vehicle according to the navigation destination set by the owner. In terms of lane change strategy, The shortest lane change distance of Tesla's high-speed scene and whether to accelerate when changing lanes are both scores of full marks, and there is still room for improvement in the speed of lane change reaction.
At this stage, Tesla's NOA can only be used in some highways, urban loops or elevated road sections, because it is not equipped with high-definition maps, Tesla NOA application scenarios will be slightly less than Xiaopeng NGP (can be enabled in some urban inner ring roads and most highways, some urban expressways) and NIO NOA (can be enabled in most highways and urban elevated sections covered by high-precision maps).
Tesla's automatic parking capacity still has room for improvement, and the overall automatic parking capacity ranks fifth in terms of the length of parking and the maximum length of automatic parking. The evaluation of automatic parking ability mainly focuses on the ability of vertical parking, side parking ability, oblique parking ability and parking experience, etc. The main indicators are parking time, rebranding number, degree of automation, etc. Among the several models evaluated, Tesla's automatic parking performance still has room for improvement.
Tesla's weak vertical parking ability is mainly reflected in the longer parking time; the side parking ability is weak Main body Now the limit parking ability is weak and the parking posture is poor, of which the extreme parking ability is mainly measured by the automatic parking limit Length, which is 1300mm longer than the car in the evaluation; the parking attitude is mainly measured by the parking time and with the roadside For example, Tesla's time spent 38 seconds in the side parking, 37 cm from the side of the road, the performance is not ideal, there is still room for improvement. (Source: Future Think Tank)
3. Production end: the advantages of self-built production capacity scale and its own advanced manufacturing capabilities are outstanding, ensuring higher gross profit margins
The gross profit margin of Tesla's auto sales business is significantly higher than that of the new domestic car-making forces, mainly due to the advantages of production capacity scale brought by its self-built super factory, as well as its own advanced manufacturing capabilities (leading body manufacturing technology and power battery system integration technology), and the future battery recycling business is expected to continue to drive the gross profit margin to continue to increase after maturity. From 2018 to 2021, the gross profit margin of Tesla's automobile sales business was 22.4%, 20.1%, 24.8% and 28.9%, respectively, while the gross profit margin of the new domestic car-making forces in this business was significantly lower.
3.1, self-built super factory: the scale of production capacity advantages are significant, conducive to cost sharing, to ensure upstream procurement
Tesla's existing production capacity is leading, and the planned production capacity release is concentrated, which is expected to quickly seize the market when the chip shortage is alleviated. At present, Tesla's total design capacity in 2021 is about 1.1 million vehicles, which is much higher than the production capacity level of new car-making forces such as Domestic Wei Xiaoli.
Tesla has manufacturing facilities in the United States, Germany and China. In 2022, Tesla's plant in Austin, Texas, USA has a design capacity of 500,000 units, which has been officially put into operation on April 8, 2022 Beijing time; the design capacity of the Berlin plant in Germany is about 500,000 units, which has been officially put into operation on March 22, 2022, Beijing time; the design capacity of the Shanghai Gigafact is expected to expand to 1.1 million units, and the production capacity of the Florida plant in the United States is flat, and the total design capacity is expected to reach 2.7 million units. Tesla's production capacity release is large and concentrated, and it is expected to double its automobile production capacity in 2022. Combined with Tesla's existing production capacity, global layout and capacity release time, we believe that Tesla is expected to continue to improve sales performance under the condition of chip shortage relief and demand release.
Tesla has stronger bargaining power in the supply chain than other new car-making forces, and its gross profit margin advantage is expected to continue to be maintained. Compared with other new forces, Tesla has its own battery factory, its latest Berlin factory battery production capacity is planned to be 50GWh, and having its own battery factory gives Tesla a certain advantage in bargaining with battery suppliers. At the same time, Tesla's delivery volume in 2021 is 936,000 vehicles, far higher than the 91,000, 90,000 and 98,000 vehicles of Weilai, Ideal and Xiaopeng, and the gap in sales is difficult to make up in the short term, so it is believed that Tesla's demand for auto parts is much higher than that of new domestic forces, and it has more advantages in parts negotiation.
3.2, its own advanced manufacturing capabilities: body manufacturing technology and power battery system integration technology leading
In the manufacture of automobile bodies, Tesla adopts integrated die casting technology, which can die cast all parts at one time to reduce the number of parts and the number of solder joints, while the manufacturing time is reduced from 1-2 hours in the traditional process to 3-5 minutes. At present, the body of the mass-produced models of domestic new energy automobile enterprises basically adopts the process method of single-piece stamping and then welding into the body assembly, and there is no production method for mass production models to use integrated die-casting.
In terms of power battery system integration, Tesla technology has been leading, in 2017 has been the large module program should be used for Model 3, while the domestic Ningde era in 2019 only launched the first generation of CTP technology, BYD, Hive Energy in 2020 to launch the CTP program. In October 2021, Tesla officially demonstrated its CTC solution, which directly integrates the battery cell or module directly into the chassis to realize the integration of the chassis system, automatic driving related modules, the big three power system and the small three power system. Musk said the technology, combined with integrated die-casting technology, could save 370 parts, reduce the weight of the body by 10%, and reduce the cost of batteries per kilowatt-hour by 7%.
3.3. After the battery recycling business matures, it is expected to continue to drive the gross profit margin to increase
Battery recycling capacity is expected to increase gross margin. Tesla mentioned in the first quarter of 2022 that the company's battery recovery capacity is expected to increase from the current 50 tons / week to 150 tons / week, referring to the gross profit margin of Grammy's power battery comprehensive utilization business in the second quarter of 2021, we assume that the positive and negative raw materials in Tesla's battery recovery can bring 20% cost savings. According to the "2020 Power Battery Industry Development Report" report of China Automobile Center, the cost of cathode materials in ternary lithium batteries accounts for 18%-25%, and the negative electrode materials account for 13%-17%, so the cost savings brought by our battery recycling business are 37% (positive: 22%, negative 15%) can be transmitted to the battery cost, according to the data of electric vehicle observers, the battery system cost of large-capacity battery electric vehicles accounts for 40% of the vehicle cost, so we speculate After Tesla's battery recycling business matures, it can bring about 3% of the gross profit of the car sales business.
4. Channel: The direct sales network continues to expand to drive sales, and after-sales service ensures user experience
4.1. Sales side: the direct operation model helps sales efficiency, and store expansion accelerates sales growth
On the sales side, Tesla adheres to the model of direct sales. That is, the company's headquarters directly operates, invests and manages the operating status of each retail outlet. Compared with the traditional distribution model, the direct sales model has higher single-store sales efficiency, which is conducive to the improvement of long-term sales efficiency, and is also conducive to the establishment of brand image cognition among consumer groups by automobile enterprises, but the direct sales model also faces the problems of slow market expansion in the early stage, and the high requirements for the capital chain, asset turnover ability and systematic management ability of automobile enterprises.
Compared with 4S stores, directly operated stores do not require customers to make an appointment to see the car, customers can experience new products when they enter the door, which improves sales efficiency, and the decline in customer time costs and the improvement of sales efficiency help to enhance brand image. In terms of site selection, Tesla direct stores are generally arranged in the business circle, while traditional dealers such as 4S stores are generally arranged in the suburbs, so the direct stores can effectively reduce the time cost of customer arrival.
At the sales pricing end, car companies that adopt the direct operation model can achieve a unified price, prevent the occurrence of different pricing of the same car type in different stores, avoid market price confusion, and to a certain extent, ensure the premium ability of enterprise products. However, the direct operation model has certain disadvantages in the market expansion end and the cost control end, and the expansion speed of the direct operation model in the short term will be slightly lower than that of the distribution model, while the direct operation model requires car companies to build their own stores, and the channel inventory also needs to be borne by car companies, which will test the capital chain and asset turnover ability of car companies.
Tesla adheres to the direct operation model, and with the accumulation of sales experience, Tesla's sales efficiency has increased year by year. Compared with dealers, OEMs have a slight lack of experience in automobile sales, so the sales efficiency is lower in the early stage of development, but with the accumulation of experience, the sales efficiency of OEMs that adopt the direct operation model will gradually increase. Tesla's single-store sales have maintained an upward trend in recent years, from 648 in 2018 to 1429 in 2021, reflecting the relative maturity of Tesla's current sales system.
The number of Tesla sales stores maintained a rapid expansion trend. Tesla's car deliveries rose from 244,920 in 2018 to 935,950 in 2021, with deliveries growing by 88% year-on-year in 2021, while Tesla's stores rose from 378 in 2018 to 655 in 2021, while store expansion accelerated, from 15% in 2018 to 25% in 2021. Considering that the chip shortage is expected to ease in the next 1-2 years, tesla will launch Cybertruck, Semi and other models at the same time, we expect Tesla sales to maintain a high growth rate.
According to Troyteslike data, the U.S., Europe, and China markets accounted for 39%, 18%, and 35% of the company's total deliveries in 2021, respectively. In terms of deliveries, Tesla delivered the highest number of vehicles in China in 2021 with 321,000 units, followed by the United States and Europe with 299,000 units and 170,000 units, respectively. In terms of market share, the company's sales share of corresponding new energy vehicles in the United States, China, Europe and other three regions was 56%, 10% and 7%, respectively, Tesla has the highest market share in the United States, followed by China and Europe.
Considering that Tesla's market share of new energy vehicles in China and Europe continues to increase, combined with Tesla's shanghai gigafactory and the Berlin factory in Europe, we expect Tesla to continue to expand its sales network in China and Europe.
4.2, sales back-end: the service system layout is perfect, the quality of the industry leading
In the back-end of the sale, Tesla has a layout online and offline and the service quality is outstanding. Its after-sales system mainly includes four modules: physical service center, self-operated/authorized sheet metal spray center, virtual service center, and 400 customer service service. Among them, the physical service center mainly provides the owner with sales, delivery, after-sales and other services; the self-operated/sheet metal spray center mainly provides the owner with a series of maintenance services such as sheet metal parts of the vehicle appearance and the main structure of the body frame; the virtual service center is to provide online answers, appointment maintenance and mobile services for the owner through intelligent back-end and remote diagnosis technology; 400 customer service service is a bridge connecting all aspects, 7 * 24 hours online, providing road rescue and other business support for the owner.
Tesla's perfect after-sales service system ensures the quality of Tesla's service to a certain extent. According to the vehicle quality network complaint volume ranking, in 2021 Tesla received a total of 151 complaints, Weilai received a total of 90 complaints, Xiaopeng received a total of 55 complaints, although Tesla's total complaint volume is higher than Weilai and Xiaopeng, but Tesla's 10,000 complaints are only 4.7, that is, tesla received 4.7 complaints per 10,000 vehicles in 2021, lower than the 9.8 and 5.6 complaints of Weilai and Xiaopeng, highlighting the excellent quality of Tesla's service.
5. Profit forecast and investment analysis
Based on the expansion of Tesla's Shanghai plant and the production of the Berlin and Austin plants, sales are expected to increase significantly in 2022, while the company is expected to further drive revenue growth by offsetting upstream raw material cost pressure through price increases, and we expect the company's revenue to reach $86.4 billion in 2022, an increase of 61% year-on-year; considering the company's 2023 Cybertruck and Semi heavy truck launch and the gradual ramping of production capacity in factories around the world, it is expected to continue to drive sales growth. We expect revenue to be US$114.8/140.5 billion for 2023-2024, respectively, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 33%/22%, respectively.
In terms of deliveries, the company's vehicle deliveries in 2021 reached 936,000 units, accompanied by the expansion of Tesla's Shanghai plant, the roll-off of production at the Berlin and Austin plants, the subsequent launch of Cybertruck and Semi models, combined with the global epidemic repeatedly affecting short-term sales performance, we expect the company's deliveries to maintain rapid growth in 2022-2024, and the company's vehicle deliveries are expected to be 143/193/241 million units in 2022-2024, corresponding to the year-on-year growth rate, respectively 53%/35%/25%。
In terms of gross margin, the company offset the upward pressure on raw materials through price increases, and with the introduction of the company's 4680 battery and CTC technology, as well as the increase in Tesla's battery recycling, it is expected to offset the upstream cost pressure in the next 6-12 months, we expect the gross margin to rise steadily, and the gross profit margin is expected to be 29%/30%/31% in 2022-2024, respectively.
In terms of net profit, in view of the large increase in Tesla's revenue, the R&D and marketing expense ratio is expected to gradually decrease, thereby improving the company's profitability, we expect the net profit for 2022-2024 to be 129/179/228 billion US dollars, corresponding to EPS of 11.0/14.7/18.0 US dollars; excluding the impact of non-operating items such as equity incentive expenses and foreign currency conversion adjustments, we expect non-GAAP net profit for 2022-2024 to be 154/211/267, respectively US$100 million, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 102%/37%/26%, corresponding to an adjusted EPS of $13.1/17.3/21.0.
The Company's current share price of $952.62 corresponds to 86.6/64.9/53.0 times PE and 12.9/10.1/8.6 times PS for 2022/2023/2024, respectively. According to Bloomberg's unanimous expectations, in terms of revenue growth, the revenue growth rate of the new car-making forces industry is significantly higher than that of traditional car companies, and the average CAGR of the new car-making forces in 2022-2024 is the fastest growth rate of 49%, followed by traditional car companies, with an average overall revenue growth rate of 21%; in terms of net profit margin, the average net profit margin of traditional car companies is about 5%, due to the development mode of high research and development and high sales investment in the early stage of new car-making forces, most of them are still in the stage of high revenue growth and net loss.
Compared with the new domestic car-making forces, Tesla's latest stock price corresponds to 12.9 times PS in 2022, which is significantly higher than the 3.0/3.0/2.6 times PS of Weilai, Xiaopeng and the ideal. We expect Tesla's net profit margin to be as high as 15% in 2022, and Weilai and Xiaopeng are still in a state of loss in the same period, with an ideal net profit margin of about 1%.
Tesla occupies a dominant position in the global new energy automobile industry pattern, dominates the two key elements of products and brands, and combines the advantages of self-built production capacity and advanced manufacturing at the production end to bring higher certainty of profit growth. Tesla already has a certain brand premium, and its product strength focuses on electrification and intelligence. In terms of electrification, we believe that Tesla's layout is comprehensive and advanced, self-developed three-electric architecture, fast charging technology and battery recycling technology, with the best endurance performance and charging experience in the same industry, with the subsequent production technology upgrade and the maturity of battery recycling technology, it is expected to further reduce costs and improve efficiency; in terms of intelligence, the company's self-developed autonomous driving chips, supercomputers, combined with massive driving data, is expected to accelerate technology iteration and consolidate intelligent advantages.
(This article is for informational purposes only and does not represent any of our investment advice.) For usage information, see the original report. ）
Featured report source: [Future Think Tank].
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