Tesla CEO Musk has bluntly said that after mass production of the 4680 battery, it will be possible for his company to produce electric vehicles that cost $25,000. To know that domestic Tesla models are cheaper than the North American market, so how much does the $25,000 Tesla sell after it is domestically produced? You can boldly guess that if BYD and Tesla sell for a price, do you think BYD is panicked?
On the Tesla Battery Day in September 2020, Tesla launched the 4680 cylindrical battery for the first time, compared with the 21700 battery installed on the Tesla model on sale, the energy increased by 5 times (only the energy of the single battery was increased by 5 times, not the energy density), the output power was increased by 6 times (the same as the single battery), and the same battery pack volume, the mileage of the 4680 battery installed car was increased by 16%. At the same time, the application of a series of innovative technologies such as electrodeless ears, dry electrodes, and demodeling can realize that 15 minutes can be charged from 10% to 80%, and the production cost will be reduced by 69%.
It is understood that power batteries account for about 38% of the total cost of electric vehicles, and the price of power batteries directly affects the pricing of electric vehicles. At the same time, battery technology is also the most critical factor affecting the safety, mileage, charging speed and other most critical factors of pure trams. It can be said that the current competition between pure trams is also a contest of battery technology. What will be the difference between Tesla's upcoming mass-produced 4680 battery and BYD's proud blade battery?
The difference is big, but not big either
Before comparing Tesla's 4680 battery with BYD's blade battery, we have to understand the types of batteries used in pure electric vehicles today, which can be roughly divided according to two dimensions. According to the positive electrode material of the battery, it can be divided into lithium cobalt oxide, lithium manganate, ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate, etc.; according to the battery structure, it can be divided into cylindrical, square and soft pack batteries.
Among them, cylindrical batteries and square batteries are the most mainstream battery structures at present, and soft pack batteries are only equipped with a very small number of models, and the technology is not very mature. So in theory, what is the difference between a cylindrical battery and a square battery? As the name suggests, the first shape is a cylindrical shape of a square, but the current cylindrical battery on the market is much smaller than the square battery, so in the same volume of the battery pack, compared to the square battery, the cylindrical battery needs to be very much to fill, and the gap between the cylinders is also very much, so that the group efficiency is not high.
The energy density of the single cylindrical battery will be higher than that of the square battery, and the discharge power will be greater. However, due to the fact that the group efficiency is not high, the capacity density advantage of the single cylindrical battery may not be reflected in the vehicle's cruising range. As for whether the advantage of greater discharge power can be reflected in the acceleration performance of the vehicle, it also depends on whether the power of the drive motor can keep up, including the charging speed, and it is also necessary to cooperate with the high-power charging system to achieve a more blocky charging speed.
As for the advantages and disadvantages of safety or production costs, please refer to the following table:
In contrast, cylindrical batteries and square batteries do not have an absolute advantage, specifically depending on the battery company designed and produced by the battery company to achieve what level, and from the current layout of battery companies, there is no trend of who will replace whom, just like pasta will not replace rice.
The 4680 battery and blade battery are actually the cylindrical batteries and square batteries that are currently optimized relatively well, which are based on the original batteries. However, the current 4680 battery has not really been mass-produced, but it is not the concept stage, because there have been many sources that tesla Model Y equipped with 4680 batteries will be delivered this quarter (North American market).
At present, many of BYD's pure electric models for sale have been equipped with blade batteries, and the technology has been optimized. Therefore, the specific difference between the 4680 battery and the blade battery still has to be implemented in the specific model. Whether it is range, charging speed, acceleration performance, or safety, it is not too directly related to the structure of the battery. It is more about the cathode material of the battery, the setting of the three-electric system, and the control of the maintenance quality.
So can the next 100,000 really buy Tesla?
If the 4680 battery is installed, the mileage is increased by 16%, and the charge from 10% to 80% in 15 minutes will indeed have a certain impact on the existing pure tram market. But the most fatal thing is that the production cost is reduced by 69%, and whether to buy Tesla or BYD in the 10th or 10 will become an interesting question.
But I personally think that whether I can buy a Tesla of more than 100,000 yuan in the future still depends on whether the large-scale mass production of 4680 batteries is smooth. And due to the high cost of research and development, as well as the large fluctuations in the price of battery raw materials, the price of Tesla models that finally assemble 4680 batteries may not necessarily be a surprise at the price of domestic listing.
Of course, the price of Tesla models also fluctuates with the cost fluctuations, so in the case of smooth large-scale mass production of 4680 batteries, including Ouyang Minggao mentioned at the recent China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum: The balance between supply and demand of lithium resources is likely to return to normal after 2-3 years. And Guoxuan Hi-Tech Li Jian mentioned: With the improvement of battery recycling technology, when the total demand for raw materials for manufacturing batteries and the total supply of materials provided by recycled batteries reach a balance, human beings will no longer need to unlimitedly request battery manufacturing resources from the natural world.
In addition, in this China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum, although large and well-known battery companies have also expressed their support for large cylindrical batteries (4680 types of batteries), it seems that large cylindrical batteries will become the future trend. But at the same time, CATL released the third generation of CTP (Cell to Pack) technology (also a more representative square battery), called "Kirin Battery" internally, and its system weight, energy density and volume energy density continue to lead the industry at the highest level. Under the same chemical system and the same battery pack size, the power of the Kirin battery pack can be increased by 13% compared to the 4680 system. However, regarding the specific information on the technology of "Kirin Battery", the relevant staff of NINGDE Times said that it will be announced at the press conference in April.
Since the domestic Tesla in order to further reduce costs, some models will also be equipped with square batteries provided by the Ningde era, so it is not excluded that the "Kirin battery" will also be applied to Tesla's models. All kinds of signs surface, 100,000 Tesla is just around the corner.