Tesla's self-produced 4680 battery accelerated discharge, and high-nickel cathode suppliers hitched a ride

Written by 丨 Battery China

Edit 丨 wheat

American editor 丨CBEA unique shine

A few days ago, Tesla announced the first quarter of 2022 earnings. The company achieved revenue of $18.756 billion, an increase of 81% year-on-year; Attributable net profit was US$3.318 billion, up 658% year-on-year. Tesla's performance exceeded market expectations, and the gross profit margin of automobile sales jumped to a record 32.9%; The gross profit margin of traditional auto giants such as Volkswagen, Daimler and Ford has been hovering at 15-20% all year round.

Tesla official data shows that 310,000 new cars were delivered in the first quarter of this year, an increase of 68% compared with 184,900 units in the same period last year. The Model 3 and Model Y models accounted for 95% of deliveries. Tesla CEO Musk said on the earnings call that Tesla is confident of achieving at least 50% growth from 2021 levels in 2022, "should be able to produce 1.5 million cars." ”

At the earnings meeting, Musk also mentioned the 4680 battery, which has attracted much attention from the industry. He said Tesla delivered the first electric vehicles with its own 4680 batteries, which is an important milestone. Later this year, its Texas plant is expected to be able to produce model 4680 structured battery packs and 2170 non-structural battery packs at the same time. At the same time, its Berlin plant will also achieve collinear production of the 2170 and 4680.

Musk excitedly said that Tesla's Texas factory will become the world's largest battery factory in the future, and it is expected that by the end of 2022, the company's 4680 battery production capacity will reach 100GWh per year, which can meet the needs of 1.3 million electric vehicles.

01

4680 battery acceleration

According to Everbright Securities, with the growth of Tesla's global sales and the increase in the penetration rate of 4680 batteries in ternary battery models, it is expected that Tesla's models equipped with 4680 batteries will sell more than 1.6 million vehicles in 2025, with a penetration rate of nearly 50% in Tesla's total sales, and the installed capacity is expected to reach 123GWh.

In the technical route, tesla's current 4680 battery uses high nickel cathode + silicon carbon anode material, as well as electrodeless ear technology, energy density up to 300Wh/kg, battery capacity is 5 times higher than the current solution, output power is increased by 6 times, the battery equipped with electric vehicle mileage can be increased by 16%, and the cost per kilowatt-hour of the battery can be reduced by 14%.

Industry insiders pointed out that "the breakthrough and application of high-nickel ternary and large cylindrical technology are of great significance to the upgrading of terminal driving experience." High nickel ternary is an important technical route for high-end electric vehicles to achieve oil and electricity parity under long-distance endurance. ”

According to Adamas Intelligence statistics, the installed capacity of passenger car power batteries in the world will reach 286.2GWh in 2021, of which the installed capacity of high-nickel batteries (NCM6 series or above, NCA, NCMA) will be 154.55GWh, accounting for 54%. In the future, with the start of 4680 batteries, the proportion of high nickel in the global ternary material installed capacity is expected to accelerate.

The 4680 battery has become a hot topic at the moment. In addition to Tesla, battery companies including CATL, LG New Energy, Panasonic, Yiwei Lithium Energy, BAK Battery, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Hive Energy, Lishen, Samsung SDI and other battery companies are also actively laying out 4680 batteries. On the application side of OEMs, the 4680 battery is also expected to gradually penetrate from Tesla to high-end electric vehicle manufacturers such as BMW and Daimler.

02

Break into Tesla's supply chain

It is not difficult to imagine that in the future, with the continuous increase in the installed capacity and penetration rate of 4680 batteries, it will bring huge demand for related upstream materials, and Tesla's self-produced battery suppliers will directly benefit from it.

CICC research report pointed out that the 4680 cylindrical battery through structural innovation and material system improvement, improve battery safety and energy density, the rapid release of the battery will also drive high demand for new materials growth, it is expected that by 2025, high nickel cathode / silicon carbon anode, LiFSI, lithium supplement, conductive agent and PVDF demand will reach 391,000 tons, 163,000 tons, 20,000 tons, 12,000 tons, 19,000 tons and 31,000 tons, respectively.

It can be seen that the largest demand among them is high nickel materials.

"The large cylinder is not prone to thermal runaway, and the high nickel ternary thermal stability is poorly complementary." Tianfeng Securities pointed out that the advantage of large cylindrical batteries is the ability to cope with thermal runaway, the disadvantage is the low efficiency of the group, and the combination of high nickel ternary is just to promote the strength and avoid the weakness, and the advantage of high nickel ternary is high energy density; The disadvantage is poor thermal stability, 4680 with high nickel ternary can give full play to the advantages of high energy density and good safety.

Recently, Dangsheng Technology said at the performance briefing that the company's high-nickel and ultra-high-nickel ternary materials have been batch-imported into a number of international high-end battery companies, and serialized high-nickel and ultra-high nickel products will continue to increase with the application of 4680 large cylindrical batteries for domestic and foreign customers. The outstanding advantage of Dangsheng lies in the overseas market, and export sales account for more than 70%. Some insiders speculate that Dangsheng Technology has taken the lead in entering tesla's supply chain.

There are market rumors that Dangsheng Technology is the most important cathode material supplier of Tesla's self-produced batteries, and its high-nickel materials have been supplied to Tesla for the production and manufacture of 4680 batteries, and have achieved a stable supply of large quantities.

As the industry knows, high nickel and silicon carbon anodes are golden partners, and the combination of high nickel and silicon carbon will help further improve the energy density of 4680 cylindrical batteries. At present, Beiterui, Shanshan Shares, Shida Shenghua, Jiangxi Zichen, Shenzhen Snow, Zhongke Electric, Jiangxi Zhengtuo, Silicon Treasure Technology, Chuangya Power, Dalian Lichang, etc. are actively promoting the industrialization of silicon carbon anode.

It is worth noting that many institutions pointed out that the 4680 battery is also expected to open up new space for structural growth. Kodali recently revealed that the company currently has the production capacity of large cylindrical 4680 battery structural parts, and the company will provide customers with corresponding supporting facilities according to the actual needs of customers. It is reported that Kodali has established a long-term and stable strategic cooperative relationship with Tesla very early, and at present, Kodali's precision structural parts production base in Europe is accelerating construction.

Entering the Tesla 4680 self-produced battery supply chain will mean catching a fast train and further opening up the growth space of corporate performance.