"Large cylindrical batteries" are becoming more and more popular?

Recently, Tesla announced that at its Fremont factory in California, its 4680 battery team produced 868,000 cells in nearly a week, which can be equipped with more than 1,000 electric vehicles. This means that the production capacity of Tesla's 4680 battery has been greatly increased compared to before. Just a few days ago, EVE also released its first generation of sodium-ion batteries, using a new generation of 4695 large cylindrical form batteries.

With the improvement of technology, there are more and more fans of large cylindrical batteries. Some insiders believe that compared with the current mainstream prismatic batteries, the performance and economy of large cylindrical batteries are more prominent, and will be used in more fields in the future.

The performance benefits are highlighted

It is understood that Tesla released the 4680 battery with a diameter of 46 mm and a height of 80 mm in September 2020. Tesla said that compared with the 2170 battery, the 4680 battery has 5 times more energy per the monomer and can increase the vehicle mileage by 16%. In the future, improvements in battery materials and vehicle design will result in a net 56% increase in cruising range and a 54% reduction in production costs.

"The company has finally achieved rapid development on the 4680 battery." In Tesla's conference call in the third quarter of 2022, Tesla CEO Musk has released a signal for the expansion of 4680 battery production capacity, and he said: "The future goal is to expand the production capacity of 4680 batteries to 1000GWh per year, and the cost can be reduced to 70 US dollars / kWh." It is reported that in the first half of 2022, the yield rate of small batches of 4680 cells produced by Tesla's California factory has reached 92%.

It is reported that EVE's new generation of 4695 large cylindrical battery has an energy density of 350Wh/kg, which can achieve 9-minute ultra-fast charging and a range of 500 km to 1000 km, increasing manufacturing efficiency by 30% and reducing manufacturing costs by 50%. Zhao Ruirui, vice president of EVE Lithium Energy Central Research Institute, said that cylindrical batteries can slow down the performance degradation of sodium-ion batteries, and the overall process is highly compatible with existing lithium battery production lines. EVE Lithium Energy recently said that the company's 46 series large cylindrical battery project is advancing in an orderly manner as planned. According to the plan, EVE's total production capacity of large cylindrical batteries will exceed 100GWh in 2025.

Recently, Guoxuan Hi-Tech also exhibited two 46 series large cylindrical cells of 39Ah and 50Ah for the first time, with an energy density of 310Wh/Kg, marking that the 46 series large cylindrical battery camp has welcomed new players.

It is understood that at present, the cylindrical battery camp has many battery companies such as CATL, EVE Lithium Energy, LG New Energy, Panasonic, Samsung SDI, Envision Power, BAK Battery, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Hive Energy and so on.

Favored by mainstream car companies

With the high price of power battery raw materials, car companies will give priority to more cost-effective power batteries. Thanks to the above advantages, in addition to Tesla, the BMW Group also favors large cylindrical batteries. In September 2022, the BMW Group announced that it will start using the new 46 Series large cylindrical cells with a standard diameter of 46 mm and two different heights in the "new generation" of the new generation of electric vehicles in 2025. BMW Group said that compared with prismatic batteries, the new cylindrical cells can increase energy density by 20%, increase cruising range by 30%, reduce charging time by 30%, and reduce costs by up to 50%. It is understood that BMW Group has identified 3 large cylindrical battery suppliers, namely CATL, EVE Lithium Energy and Envision Power.

In addition, car companies such as NIO and JAC have also said that they will launch models equipped with 4680 large cylindrical batteries.

For a number of car companies have bet on large cylindrical batteries, Wu Hui, general manager of the research department of Ivey Economic Research Institute and president of China Battery Industry Research Institute, said: "The production of cylindrical batteries has a high degree of automation, the standards are relatively uniform, the energy density in the later stage will be higher, and the manufacturing cost will be lower than that of soft packaging." At the same time, the large cylindrical battery unit is 5-6 times larger than the small cylindrical battery, the difficulty of system integration is relatively low, and the integration efficiency will be higher, so Tesla, BMW and other car companies may think that in the future, especially high-end models, large cylindrical batteries can be widely used. ”

Zhou Ran, an analyst at Galaxy Securities, expects that in the future, large cylinders will replace some soft bags and square market shares. With the exception of the Model 3, Tesla plans to use or partially use the 4680 battery. It is estimated that in 2025, Tesla's 4680 model sales are expected to reach 1.21 million units, corresponding to an installed battery capacity of about 178GWh. Coupled with BMW and other companies, conservatively predict that the installed capacity of 4680 batteries will exceed 200GWh in 2025.

The technical route will be contentious

According to different packaging methods, lithium batteries can be divided into three types: cylindrical, square and soft pack, and at present, square batteries are the mainstream form of the domestic power battery market. However, there are advantages and disadvantages to various battery forms. Wu Hui pointed out that the current technical difficulties of large cylinders are mainly in the process. "The lack of its all-pole lug technology in welding and other aspects has led to a low yield rate of large cylindrical batteries."

Liu Jincheng, chairman of EVE Lithium Energy, said in March 2022 that compared with prismatic batteries and pouch batteries, large cylindrical batteries are more prominent in safety and economy, and will become the main power battery form for mid-to-high-end new energy vehicles. In the view of Fan Wenguang, vice president of BAK Power Battery, large cylindrical batteries are the optimal solution for high-end electric vehicles in the next 5-10 years, and the market share of large cylindrical cells in China will exceed 30% in 2025, exceeding the total global demand in 2021.

"Although the market share of large cylindrical batteries is low now, the market share will definitely increase in the future." Wu Hui believes that cylindrical batteries are mainly used in electric vehicles and energy storage, and some low-speed electric vehicles and electric two-wheelers also have certain application space.

In recent years, various battery technologies have accelerated iteration, in Wu Hui's view, the future power battery technical route and form will show a trend of hundreds of schools of thought, and will not gradually tend to a certain direction. "Cylindrical, square, and soft packaging have their own advantages and disadvantages, so different application scenarios, different process levels, etc. will lead enterprises to choose different product technology directions." In the future, the large cylindrical battery should give more play to its cost advantages, and further reduce the manufacturing cost through high-speed automated production lines, and its competitiveness will be stronger. ”

Text | Yang Zi, an intern reporter of this newspaper