(Report Producer/Author: Industrial Securities, Wang Shuai)
1． Downstream pain points drive battery innovation
The four disadvantages of power batteries are the key factors restricting the market share of new energy vehicles at present. At the beginning of 2022, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued a notice that the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles will be terminated on December 31, 2022. This means that the development model of the new energy automobile industry relying on government subsidies and policy inclination has entered the countdown to "weaning", the industry's low-level blind expansion has been curbed, and high-quality development urgently needs to be achieved. As the core component of new energy vehicles, the optimization and upgrading of power batteries is the key to improving the strength of new energy vehicles. At this stage, the following factors restrict the development of new energy vehicles mainly exist in power batteries:
1. The cost is higher, Oliver Wilshire Consulting believes that the current manufacturing cost of electric vehicles is 45% higher than that of fuel vehicles, and the power battery is the main reason for the high cost of the vehicle, the cost of the engine and auxiliary system of the fuel vehicle is 3000 euros, and the cost of the electric vehicle battery is as high as 8000 euros;
2. The endurance is short, the fuel vehicle endurance is 600~1000km, the mainstream electric vehicle has a battery life of 400~600km, and the actual endurance of the electric vehicle under low temperature conditions is basically cut, and the mileage anxiety makes the end user prohibitive of the electric vehicle;
3. Charging is slow, under ideal working conditions, mainstream electric vehicles can charge 50% of the power in 40min, while the actual working conditions need 50min, and the fuel vehicle can be filled with fuel in 10 minutes;
4. Safety hazards, only in the first half of 21 years, there were 56 spontaneous combustion accidents in new energy passenger cars in China, most of which were caused by short circuits in the power battery, which caused end customers to worry about the safety of power batteries.
The upgrading of power battery materials and structure design has become an effective way to eliminate the competitiveness disadvantage of new energy vehicles. Battery Enterprises continue to improve the product strength of power batteries through the iteration of raw materials and structural innovation of batteries. For example, continuously improve the nickel content in cathode raw materials to improve endurance, in 2018 the battery life of about 300km in the nickel ternary battery occupies the domestic mainstream battery market, to 2021, the use of high nickel ternary battery so that the endurance exceeded 700km. Battery systems improve volume utilization by optimizing structural design, with only 45% of the system volume utilization rate of the VDA355 module being used in the earliest widespread application, and now the CTP volume utilization rate of large-scale applications is 60%. (Source: Future Think Tank)
2． Tesla technology innovation, the leading layout successively
2.1 Battery solutions are full of flowers, and the future development trend is obvious
Ternary and iron and lithium coexist, square type, soft bag and cylinder have their own advantages. Lithium-ion batteries can be divided into square, soft pack and cylindrical according to the package form, and can be divided into ternary NCM (including NCMA and NCA) and LFP according to the positive electrode main material. LG, Panasonic and CATL are the leading leaders in the field of soft bags, cylinders and square batteries, respectively. According to the product planning of leading companies, Panasonic adheres to the three-way (NCM and NCA) development route, and switches the high-energy density silicon carbon anode in 2016; LG began to switch from high-nickel NCM to high-nickel NCMA in 2021, and at the same time began to use high-energy density SiO+ graphite anode, and plans to mass-produce LFP batteries in 2024, which is the first battery company in Japan and South Korea to mass-produce LFP. In the Ningde era, LFP and NCM batteries were developed in parallel, low-cost models can use LFP batteries, and high-performance models should use high-nickel NCM+SiOX-Gr batteries. We believe that batteries with different packaging forms and cathode materials will show application value in different market segments according to their own characteristics.
2.2 Cost and performance are difficult to balance, Tesla technology innovation to solve the pain points of the industry
The 4680 is the first to co-optimize battery life, charging, and cost. The three packaged forms of battery manufacturers represented by Tesla, LG and NINGDE Times have obvious differences in solutions to the pain points of the power battery industry. LG and CATL adopt differentiated product strategies: solve the problem of high battery cost through economic system batteries, such as using low-cost LFP or medium-nickel high-voltage ternary batteries; using performance-based system batteries to improve endurance, such as using high-nickel ternary batteries; and using performance-based system batteries to solve the problem of slow charging, such as the use of graphene conductive agents with excellent conductivity and LiFSI lithium salts. However, the use of performance-type batteries will improve battery life and charging at the same time, will make the cost rise significantly, and the use of economic system batteries can effectively reduce battery costs, but the endurance and charging performance will be reduced to a certain extent. Battery cost and performance are difficult to balance, which is a common problem faced by most battery companies at present. LG and CATL have developed differentiated product strategies to meet the application needs of downstream customers in different market segments, but they cannot solve all pain points through one product. In September 2020, Tesla released its self-designed 4680 battery (a cylindrical battery with a diameter of 46 mm and a height of 80 mm), which has 6 times the energy of the previous battery cell, increases the mileage by 16%, and reduces the cost by 56%. Tesla's 4680+CTC solution simultaneously solves the industry pain points of high cost, low endurance, slow charging and safety hazards.
2.3 Cylindrical battery development history
Tesla, as the car company with the largest application of cylindrical batteries, promotes the standardization of cylindrical batteries. From the 18650 batteries equipped with the early Model S and Model X, to the 21700 batteries used by the Model 3 and Model Y, it is the specification with the most cylinder battery shipments. In order to increase energy density and reduce costs, the development trend of cylindrical cylinders is also like square batteries, and the size is getting bigger and bigger. From 18650 batteries to 2170 batteries, the volume is increased by 46% and the energy is increased by 50%, and from the 2170 battery to the 4680 battery, the volume is increased by 448% and the energy is increased by 400%. Other sizes of cylindrical batteries (Guoxuan 32135 and BAK 26650) have not been widely used and promoted. It is expected that the 4680 battery, driven by Tesla, is expected to become the next standard-size battery widely used in the automotive industry.
The 4680's omnipolar ear design increases power density based on high energy density. From 18650 to 2170, only the size and material upgrades were made to increase the energy density of the battery, but did not improve the charging power of the battery. Omnipolar ear technology can increase the collecting fluid conductivity area, reduce the internal resistance of the battery cell, and effectively improve the problem of large heat generated by the fast charging of cylindrical batteries. According to the thermal simulation results of the University of London, for the larger new 4680 cylindrical battery, the high ohmic loss along the length of the Z-direction cell will aggravate the unevenness of the current distribution inside the battery, and the full polar ear design needs to be used to mitigate it. When using a conventional polar ear design, the ohmic loss of the collector fluid results in 5 times more heat than in the full polar ear design. Experiments have shown that the 4680 battery takes only 15 minutes to charge from 10% to 80%, while the 2170 battery takes 25 minutes to charge 70%, and the 4680 optimizes 40% charging performance through the omnipolar ear design.
2.4 4680 The advantages are obvious, and the industry has been laid out successively
Major battery companies released 4680 production plans, and domestic and foreign enterprises have different mass production. Domestic mainstream battery companies Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy and BAK have released 4680 battery plans in the future of Tesla batteries, but limited by the domestic enterprises in the past few years, the research and development focus has focused on square batteries, cylindrical technology reserves and manufacturing experience is relatively small, so domestic companies are expected to be mass-produced in 2024. Foreign mainstream battery companies Panasonic and LG cylindrical technology have sufficient storage, is the main supplier of Tesla 18650 and 2170 batteries, and it is expected that Panasonic and LG 4680 can achieve mass production in 2022.
Tesla has unique technical advantages, and the 4680 technical barriers are high. In 2019, Tesla acquired Maxwell, a company with dry electrode technology, strengthening its technical reserves in dry electrodes. At present, the agglomeration phenomenon of active materials in the dry electrode homogenization process is still the biggest challenge of 4680 mass production, the first generation of 4680 batteries continue to use traditional liquid coating technology, and it is expected that the second generation of 4680 batteries is expected to use dry electrode technology. Dry electrodes, full-pole ear welding and other technologies Have a long research and development cycle, and there is a certain know-how, and when domestic companies achieve breakthroughs, they need to keep track.
4680 The technology of domestic enterprises is in an equilibrium, and the second echelon of enterprises has ushered in a pioneering opportunity. Tesla 4680 battery demand is clear, but domestic battery companies can not achieve large-scale mass production in a short period of time. The domestic leader Ningde era has not formed a large advantage in this field, and the second echelon battery company Yiwei Lithium Energy is expected to achieve a single-point breakthrough by concentrating on mass production of 4680 in advance and increasing its own market share. (Source: Future Think Tank)
3． 4680 multi-dimensional advantages, the future trend of the industry
3.1 4680 multi-dimensional advantages, the best solution to battery pain points
Compared with the key products of CATL, LG and Tesla in 2022, the 4680 is expected to become the main solution for power batteries. In the past, the domestic battery market has been dominated by square batteries, and with the rapid advancement of large cylindrical batteries such as 4680, domestic OEMs have ushered in more choices. In the past, cylindrical batteries were limited by subsidy policies, system integration and BMS complexity, and soft packs have always had the disadvantages of high cost and weak mechanical strength. The square battery has the characteristics of simple structure and relatively simple system integration, and has always been the main solution in the domestic market. Compared with the key products of CATL, LG and Tesla in 2022, the large cylinder represented by the 4680 has a significant advantage: it not only improves the energy density (the highest energy density in the 22-year mass-produced battery), but also improves the power density (15 minutes to charge 70% of the power), and realizes both charging and endurance.
3.2 4680 high nickel-silicon carbon matching, achieving an energy density of 300wh/kg
Cylindrical high nickel battery industrialization leading square type and soft pack battery. In 1991, Sony released the first commercial lithium-ion battery, which uses the structure of a cylindrical battery and has been widely used in the field of consumer batteries. In order to pursue high energy density, the nickel content of cathode materials continues to increase. The higher the nickel content, the higher the environmental and process requirements of the battery production process. Cylindrical battery process maturity and automation degree is higher, while square type and soft package process maturity is low. In terms of the mass production time of new products with the same material system, cylindrical batteries are 2 to 3 years earlier than square and soft pack batteries.
The cylindrical structure increases the silicon content of the negative electrode and increases the energy density of the battery. Doping silicon or silica oxide in the negative electrode can significantly increase the battery capacity, but silicon will produce a huge volume change during charge and discharge (silicon is prone to 300% volume expansion during charge and discharge, while graphite only produces 10.6% volume expansion), thereby triggering SEI membrane damage side reactions, resulting in battery capacity attenuation. The stainless steel housing of the 4680 battery has high mechanical strength and can fully absorb the expansion force of the negative electrode; at the same time, the characteristics of the 4680 battery pole plate winding can make the expansion force at all positions of the pole plate evenly, reducing the appearance of damage and wrinkles, while the square and soft pack batteries are prone to damage and folds caused by stress concentration at the R angle. The doping ratio of silicon in the negative electrode of the battery is 3% to 10%, and the doping ratio of silicon in cylindrical batteries is relatively high.
3.3 4680 charging advantages are obvious, solving downstream pain points
The full-pole ear design has obvious charging advantages. In general, methods such as using high-performance conductive agent graphene and reducing compaction density can increase the maximum charging current of the battery, but increase the battery cost and energy density. Temperature is an important factor restricting charging, 4680 battery through the omnipolar ear design, shorten the electronic transmission path, widen the transmission channel, fully conduct electricity, reduce heat generation. The 4680's innovative omnipolar ear design dramatically improves battery magnification performance without compromising the battery's energy density and cost.
The 4680 battery 400V solution competes with the square pack 800V solution. Optimized charging can be achieved by increasing the charging current, on the other hand, increasing the battery system voltage to improve charging efficiency. According to Insideevs research, it takes 15 minutes for a 4680 battery system with 400V to charge 70%, while the Porsche Taycan with an 800V battery system and the IONIQ of Hyundai require 18 minutes and 22 minutes to charge 70%, respectively. The 4680 achieves the current industry-leading charging efficiency at much lower than 800v, which means that the chargability of the 4680 has a lot of room for improvement in the future.
3.4 CTC as a future trend, the 4680 is highly matched
CTC is an inevitable trend in the future of battery vehicle matching. From the small module of Tesla Model S, to the large module of Model 3, and then to the CTC program launched by 4680, the concept of modules has gradually weakened and canceled, and the integration efficiency of battery packs has been continuously improved. Tesla's battery system is constantly iterating, the battery BOM cost is reduced, the battery system production efficiency and the volume utilization rate of the battery are improved, which has become an effective path to reduce battery cost and improve energy density. The battery system integration of foreign car companies is inclined to CTC and CTP, Tesla will use CTC in the next generation model Y, Hyundai Motor's Mobis has signed a deep cooperation agreement with CATL with CATL, and Volvo will adopt CTC in the third generation of battery system integration.
The 4680 battery is more suitable for CTC construction than square and soft pack batteries. First of all, CTC has certain requirements for the structural strength of the battery, cancels the module design, and requires the battery itself to bear more mechanical strength, which determines that the soft pack battery cannot achieve the real meaning of CTC. Second, CTC will be installed on the chassis, battery height will affect the vehicle ergonomics, compared to the height of the square battery of 100 ~ 110mm, only 80mm of 4680 has more advantages; third, the chassis of the vehicle is often irregular shape, square battery is often larger, and the chassis is more difficult to match. The 4680 battery is smaller and can be matched to the chassis of different platforms. Fourth, because CTC is to fix the battery on the chassis through the structural glue, can not be repaired and replaced by a single battery, the consistency of the battery puts forward higher requirements, and consistency is also the biggest advantage of cylindrical batteries.
3.5 4680 Cost plummets, narrowing the gap with fuel vehicles
4680 cost reduction of 50% in 2025, outperforming other batteries. According to the information of Tesla Battery Day, the cost of the 2170 battery is about 0.698 yuan / Wh, Tesla through the expansion of the battery size, the use of high nickel and silicon carbon anode high energy density materials, the application of dry electrode process and CTC system integration solutions, 4680 battery cost of 0.323 yuan / Wh in 2025. The cost of square batteries is 0.75 yuan / wh in 2022, and it is expected to be 0.55 yuan / Wh in 25 years (calculated by 10% annual decline). Assuming a B-class car has an endurance of 700km and a battery power of 100kWh, in 2025, the cost of the square battery is about 55,000 yuan, while the cost of using a 4680 battery is only 32,300 yuan, which is lower than the square 22,700 yuan.
The 4680 battery is expected to narrow the gap between electric vehicles and fuel vehicles and compete with fuel vehicles. According to Oliver Wyman Consulting, the production costs of fuel vehicles are divided into the following items: assembly, chassis, electrical and electronic (E/E) architecture, body-in-white/exterior, interior, powertrain/drivetrain, engine and auxiliary costs. For electric vehicles, there is no engine and auxiliary components such as oil pumps, but there are electric drives and batteries. Power batteries account for 40% to 50% of the cost of the vehicle, is the highest cost of electric vehicle components, so the cost of batteries directly affect the competition between electric vehicles and fuel vehicles. In 2020, the cost of fuel vehicles is 45,000 yuan lower than that of electric vehicles in the same class, and if the low-cost 4680 batteries are used in 2025, the cost gap can be narrowed to 12,500 YUAN.
4． Tesla demands 74GWh for 4680 in 2023
Tesla added two new factories in Berlin and Austin, and accelerated the expansion of production in Shanghai. Tesla's Berlin plant, which plans to produce 700,000 vehicles, is subject to a long environmental approval cycle by the German government, and is expected to start production of the Model Y in Q2 of 22. Tesla's Texas plant is planning a production capacity of 500,000 vehicles, and it is expected to start mass production of the Model Y with 4680 batteries in Q3 of 22. Tesla's Shanghai plant invested 1.2 billion yuan in 21 years to increase production capacity, and it is expected to reach 850,000 vehicles in 22 years. With the commissioning of the Berlin plant and the Texas plant and the optimization of the production capacity of the Shanghai plant, Tesla's theoretical production capacity reached 2.65 million units at the end of 22 years, laying the foundation for high sales growth.
There are many Tesla models and versions to meet the needs of the market segment. Tesla offers two or more versions per model in terms of performance and range, for example, the Model3 has standard battery life, long battery life and high performance versions. Tesla has launched 5 models including 2 sedans, 2 SUVs and 1 sports car, and will also launch electric trucks and electric pickup trucks with a wide audience in the United States (more than 1.25 million orders) in the future to further improve brand coverage.
Regional strategy differentiation to enhance product strength. Tesla took advantage of the LFP industrialization in China to take the lead in launching the LFP version of Model 3 and Model Y for the Chinese market, reducing the cost of the vehicle and expanding market share. In the future, the company will rely on the Shanghai plant to produce LFP models and supply them globally.
Tesla's product strength is excellent, covering the mainstream market segment, and future sales depend on Tesla's delivery ability. Tesla's delivery revolves primarily around production at each plant, and sales accumulate orders around direct sales. With the implementation of new energy vehicle policies in Europe and the United States and the continuous enhancement of Tesla's product strength, we expect that compared with the sales of 930,000 vehicles in 2021, sales are expected to reach 3.8 million in 2025, and there is still room for 3 times growth.
Promote battery technology innovation and lead the development of new energy vehicles. According to the information of Tesla's 21Q4 conference call and battery day, the mid-to-high-end models Model S, Model X, Cybertruck, Model Y and Model 3 are equipped with 4680 batteries for long range, and the standard endurance Model Y and Model 3 are equipped with LFP batteries. The 4680 battery will start production in 22 years, the Model Y model will be the first to use, and as the production capacity increases in 2023, the Model 3, Model S and Model X will switch 4680 batteries. Based on a 16% increase in the existing battery level of each model, the estimated capacity after switching 4680 batteries is 87kWh for model Y and Model 3, 207KWh for Cybertruck, and 116kWh for Model S and Model X. From 2022, it will enter an accelerated penetration period, and it is expected that the penetration rate of 4680 sales in Tesla from 2022 to 2025 will be 8%, 33%, 55%, and 58%. In 2025, it is expected that 2.24 million Teslas will be equipped with 4680 batteries, and the demand for 4680 batteries will reach 236GWh.
5． 4680 Industry Chain Sensitivity Analysis
5.1 Overview of the battery industry chain
Power batteries have gradually formed an industrial chain system with a high degree of specialization, a clear division of labor, and each performing its own duties, which is mainly divided into upper, middle and lower reaches. The upstream includes cobalt, manganese, nickel ore, lithium ore and graphite ore, of which cobalt, manganese, nickel ore is generally used upstream as a cathode material, lithium ore is most widely used, and graphite is generally only used as a negative electrode material. The midstream industrial chain is composed of positive electrode, negative electrode, electrolyte, diaphragm, copper foil and so on. The downstream product is a power battery system composed of a single battery, module, wiring harness, connector and BMS management system as a whole. Upstream products have a high degree of homogenization, strong cyclical attributes, greater differentiation of downstream products, and strong consumption attributes. 4680 Battery technology revolution and large-scale application, the battery industry chain has a great impact.
5.2 4680 Demand increased rapidly, and Tesla took the lead in mass production
Tesla's self-supply capacity is insufficient, and LG and Panasonic are expected to make up for demand. Tesla plans to build a 100GWh production capacity in 2022, subject to the delay in government approval at the Berlin and Austin factories, the long commissioning cycle of the battery production line and the long ramp-up cycle of the production line, and we expect that the demand in 2022 will be mainly supplied by tesla's Fremont trial production line. From 2022 to 2025, Tesla's self-supply is expected to reach 7.7GWh, 40GWh, 80GWh, and 100GWh, respectively, tesla's self-made production capacity can not meet the demand, assuming that other production capacity is supplied by Tesla's existing suppliers. We expect 100GWh of Tesra's self-supply capacity to reach 100GWh by 2025, panasonic 91.1GWh and LG 45.6GWh.
530 million weft lithium can accelerate the layout of large cylinders, which is expected to achieve a single-point breakthrough
Ewell Lithium can lead its domestic counterparts, and 4680 will help it. Ewell Lithium Energy Company has built a battery production capacity of 39GWh, is expected to expand to 225GWh in 2024, its company announcement shows that Hubei Jingmen plans to put into operation 20GWh annual capacity of the three-yuan large cylindrical cell production line, the construction cycle is not more than 18 months, is expected to start supplying at the end of 2024. Compared with other domestic battery companies, Ewell Lithium energy has a faster layout of large cylinders, and Ewell Lithium energy has many years of production experience in 18650 and 2170, which is conducive to the mass production of 4680 batteries. Therefore, we believe that the 4680 battery will help Ewell Lithium energy to develop a new growth point.
5.4 4680 accelerated penetration, high nickel demand surge
Short-term lithium iron continues to explore, and long-term ternary is expected to rebound. Blade and CTP design to improve the energy density of lithium iron phosphate, BYD Han, BYD Qin, lithium iron version of model 3 and Model Y and other explosive models apply blade and CTP technology, driving the increase in lithium iron phosphate battery shipments. In 2021, the domestic power battery ternary cumulative 109GWh, accounting for 48.3%, an increase of 91.3%, lithium iron phosphate accumulated 117GWh, accounting for 51.7%, an increase of 227%. Lithium iron phosphate occupies an advantageous position in the short term, and the demand for the subsequent ternary system is expected to achieve rebound through the release of 4680.
Ternary cathode domestic shipments accelerated, and high-end models pulled a high nickel ratio. In 2021, China's ternary cathode material shipments reached 422,000 tons, an increase of 79.6% year-on-year, accounting for 58.7% of global ternary cathode shipments. Driven by the demand for high energy density of high-end models, the proportion of high nickel ternary increased from 22% in 2020 to 36% in 2021, and the trend of high nickel of ternary cathode materials was further clarified.
The domestic high nickel barrier is obvious, and the ternary leader is strong. At present, most of the domestic ternary suppliers have a medium nickel high voltage ternary production capacity, and there are fewer suppliers with sufficient high nickel ternary production capacity and high-quality products. Leading enterprises such as Dangsheng, Rongbai and Bamo laid out high-nickel technology earlier. 21 years of ternary cathode shipments of the top three suppliers are Ronbay (8%), Barmo (6.2%) and Dangsheng (5.4%), Ronbay has switched to the entire series of 8 series and 9 series ternary, when the rise has only a small amount of nickel production capacity, most of which is high nickel production capacity, Barmo 21 years to medium nickel, 22 years of high nickel production capacity gradually began to increase.
The domestic cathode has entered the leading supply chain of foreign countries, and the shipment has accelerated new impetus. Dangsheng is expected to enter the Tesla 4680 battery supply chain with the experience of supplying Tesla's energy storage project; Beiterui supplied Panasonic NCA in June 2020, which is Panasonic's second global cathode supplier. It is expected that from 2022 to 2025, Barmo, Dangsheng and Bertrand will continue to expand their proportion of global shipments by taking advantage of cost and production capacity.
4680 battery discharge, driving domestic high nickel shipments. It is estimated that in 2022, Tesla and its battery suppliers 4680 need ternary cathode 0.91 million tons, of which Dangli supplied 0.81 million tons, accounting for 7.49% of Dangli's production capacity and 9.23% of shipments, and in 2025, Tesla and its battery supplier ternary cathode total demand was about 78,500 tons, driving significantly on the performance of cathode suppliers, accounting for 1.01% of Barmo's 25-year shipments, 15.14% of Dangsheng's 25-year shipments, and 11.27% of Beiterui's shipments.
The growth rate of overseas production capacity is slower, and the export of domestic precursors has surged. In 2021, global ternary precursor shipments reached 738,000 tons, of which China's shipments reached 618,000 tons, an increase of 80.7% year-on-year, and shipments accounted for 83.7% of the world. Zhongwei Shares, Grammy, Huayou Cobalt Ternary Precursor Export ranked first, mainly supplying ECOPRO BM, LGC, L&F, POSCO, Umicore and Tesla and other overseas enterprises. In 2022, zhongwei and Huayou are expected to account for 25% and 10% of global precursor shipments, respectively.
The ternary precursor is laid out upstream in advance, and profitability is expected to continue to increase. Zhongwei Shares, Grammy and Huayou Cobalt and other enterprises have invested in Indonesian nickel smelting projects, locked in the Indonesian nickel metal resources and price model in advance, opened up and further optimized the supply of raw materials, and then reduced the production cost of high-nickel ternary precursors. Leading enterprises have strong competitive advantages in terms of production capacity scale, raw material supply, product quality, product structure and customer groups.
The domestic supply chain capacity growth rate is faster than that of foreign countries, and the proportion of international supply continues to expand. Zhongwei signed a 120,000-ton ternary precursor project with Finnish Mining in December 2021, expanded a 35,000-ton precursor project in Changsha in May 21, launched a new 60,000-ton precursor investment project in the central and western bases and a 180,000-ton precursor project prepared in the southern industrial base, and is expected to have a production capacity of more than 500,000 tons by the end of 2023.
The 4680 pulls domestic high-nickel shipments, and the precursor faucet releases production capacity. It is estimated that in 2022, Tesla's 4680 battery needs a ternary precursor of 0.54 million tons, Zhongwei shipped 0.36 million tons, accounting for 1.26% of Zhongwei's production capacity, accounting for 1.58% of Zhongwei's shipments, and Tesla and its battery supplier ternary precursor demand of 181,100 tons in 2025, which is significantly driven by the performance of precursor suppliers, accounting for 13.83% of Zhongwei's 25-year shipments, and Huayou Cobalt's shipments of 6.27%.
5.5 4680 Silicon Carbon is highly compatible, driving silicon carbon demand
Negative electrode enterprises accelerate the construction of graphitized self-supply capacity, and the profitability of negative electrode enterprises is expected to improve. In 2021, China's anode material shipments reached 779,000 tons, an increase of 86.4% year-on-year. In 2021, global shipments of anode materials reached 905,000 tons, an increase of 68.2% year-on-year. The cost of graphitization accounts for more than 45% of the processing cost of artificial graphite anode materials, and it is an effective way for anode material enterprises to enhance their competitiveness through integrated layout to obtain cost advantages. Major anode material enterprises have gradually changed from "production mode based on outsourced processing" to "integrated mode based on self-built graphitization capacity". Based on the average price in 2021, for every 10% increase in the proportion of graphitized self-supply, the corresponding gross profit margin can be increased by 2.27%.
The 4680 is highly matched to silicon carbon, and the tap layout is silicon carbon anode. The 4680 uses a high nickel positive electrode and a silicon carbon negative electrode material, making it the battery with the highest energy density in mass production at this stage. In view of the fact that its shell adopts high-strength nickel steel and cylindrical structure design, 4680 and silicon carbon anode compatibility is better, is expected to increase the doping ratio of silicon to 3 to 10%, while square and soft pack batteries are about 3%. Anode suppliers Bertrand and Shanshan have supplied silicon carbon anodes in batches.
The domestic leading silicon carbon anode is supplied to mainstream customers at home and abroad. Bertrui silicon carbon anode customers include Samsung and Panasonic (which has been cut into the Panasonic-Tesla system); Shanshan silicon carbon anode has been used in the 3C field and began to supply tests to the NINGDE era in 2018.
4680 amplification, silicon carbon space is vast. It is estimated that in 2022, Tesla 4680 needs 0.83 million tons of silicon carbon anode, accounting for 2.65% of Beiterui silicon carbon anode production capacity, accounting for 4.17% of Beiterui shipments, and Tesla 4680 silicon carbon anode demand of 148,900 tons in 2025, which is significantly driven by the performance of anode raw material suppliers, accounting for 32.79% of Beiterui's 25-year shipments and 2.15% of Shanshan shipments.
5.6 4680 Excellent performance, new electrolyte demand doubled
China's electrolyte enterprises have global competitiveness, and the domestic electrolyte market is developing rapidly. In 2021, the global shipment of lithium ion battery electrolyte was 612,000 tons, an increase of 83.2% year-on-year, of which the shipment of lithium-ion battery electrolyte of Chinese enterprises was 507,000 tons, an increase of 88.5% year-on-year, accounting for 82.8% of global electrolyte shipments.
The 4680 drives the industrialization of LiFSI to optimize battery charging and safety. At present, the electrolyte lithium salt is mainly LiPF6, which has the disadvantages of poor thermal stability and general conductivity, but considering factors such as cost and production capacity, LiPF6 is the most widely used lithium salt at this stage. The 4680 battery has poor high nickel cathode thermal stability, the omnipolar ear design needs to match the high conductivity of the electrolyte, and the new lithium salt LiFSI has many advantages such as high conductivity, high thermal stability, hydrolysis resistance, high temperature resistance, and inhibition of battery gas rise to meet the needs of the 4680. Therefore, the electrolyte LiFSI of the 4680 battery is expected to replace LiPF6, but its cost is higher and is now used as an additive with LiPF6. When LiFSI is used as an additive, the amount of LiFSI accounts for about 1 to 3% of the total mass of the electrolyte, and the amount of auxiliary lithium salt can account for 3 to 5% of the total mass of the electrolyte; Ningde Times, South Korea LG Chemical, etc. have applied LiFSI to some of their electrolyte formulations.
Integrated layout, strengthen the leading position. Xinjiubang acquired Hankang and BASF Suzhou to increase additive production capacity, and now Xinjiubang has built a 2,000-ton VC production capacity and an 800-ton LiFSI production capacity. Tianci is in a leading position in the research and development of the new lithium salt LiFSI, and the self-supply ratio of lithium hexafluorophosphate has reached 80%, so Tianci has achieved a gross profit margin of related products in the context of a significant increase in the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate. At present, Tianci has built a production capacity of 6,300 tons of LiFSi and a capacity of 32,000 tons of LiPF6. It is expected that Tianci and Xinzhubang will further expand the proportion of global electrolyte shipments by virtue of their technical advantages and cost advantages, and it is expected that Tianci and Xinzhubang will reach 25% and 15% of global electrolyte shipments respectively in 2022.
The 4680 battery releases the demand for electrolyte, and the domestic leading account for the goods continues to increase. Tesla was designated as a 4680 electrolyte supplier in November 2020, with New State as the electrolyte supplier to LG and Panasonic. We predict that the proportion of electrolyte supply to 4680 by LiFSI's electrolyte faucet Tianci and Xinzhubang will continue to increase.
Leading supplier 4680 battery electrolyte shipments increased. It is estimated that in 2022, Tianci and Xinzhubang will supply Tesla's 4680 battery electrolyte with 0.69 million tons and 0.05 million tons, respectively, accounting for 2.96% and 0.31% of its 22-year production capacity. With the 4680 battery discharge, it is expected that tesla's 4680 electrolyte demand will account for 13.16% and 7.99% of the shipments of Tianci and Xinjiubang in 2025.
5.7 4680 Excellent performance, the demand for cylindrical structural parts is multiplied
The trend of two-level differentiation of the power lithium battery structural parts industry is obvious: most enterprises are at a low level of technology and process quality, the scale of enterprises is small, the region is obvious, and the viability is relatively weak; a small number of high-quality enterprises rely on the early basic research and development accumulation, occupy the middle and high-end market in the early stage, and rely on cooperation with international manufacturers to achieve breakthroughs in technology and production processes, reach international quality standards, and have strong competitiveness. Typical enterprises of global power lithium battery cell structural parts are: Sangsin EDP in South Korea and FUJI SPRINGS in Japan. China's leading domestic enterprises are Kodali, in addition to Ruidefeng, Wuxi Jinyang, Ningbo Zhenyu, Shenzhen Shenzhi and other enterprises.
4680 Complex structural parts, manufacturing thresholds raised. At present, the 4680 battery has no standard parts, the program is new and the models and structures of each company are different, the development cost is high, and the company's product development capabilities and technical experience accumulation have higher requirements. The differences between the 4680 and 2170 structural parts are as follows:
- The load current becomes larger, the module structure is eliminated, and the requirements for the mechanical strength design and insulation design of the housing structure are more stringent;
- Larger size, thicker thickness (0.2mm for 2170 wall thickness, 0.6mm for 4680), raw material upgrade, 2170 raw material for aluminum alloy, and 4680 for pre-nickel-plated steel with higher strength, nickel-plated steel processing accuracy is more difficult to control;
- The 4680 has explosion-proof valves at the bottom and top, a positive collector disc is directly welded to the pole, and has a CID design, which is completely different from the 18650 and 2170.
Based on the accumulation of experience in early products and technologies, Kodali gives priority to the layout in the field of cylindrical structural parts. Kodali has a high-precision, high-consistency production process, as well as advanced stamping, drawing, injection molding and mold manufacturing technology. The company's main products have independent intellectual property rights, mastered a number of core technologies including safety explosion-proof, anti-leakage, ultra-long stretch, power failure protection, automatic assembly, intelligent pressure testing, etc., and have obtained a number of international customers cylindrical shell fixed points.
With the increased penetration of the 4680 battery, Kodari will fully benefit. It is expected that in 2022, 4680 battery structural parts will bring 340 million yuan of orders to Kodari, accounting for 4% of the company's revenue, and the 4680 structural parts business is expected to bring 1.4 billion yuan of orders to Kodali in 2023, accounting for 11.87% of the company's total revenue.
5.8 Prediction of the elasticity of battery materials to suppliers
Based on Tesla's global sales forecast, combined with the 4680 penetration rate, the total demand for Tesla 4680 and the demand for 4680 battery materials for each supplier are estimated, combined with the supplier's production capacity and shipment forecasts, the 4680 battery material elasticity forecast for suppliers is obtained.
Key assumptions:
2022-2025 Tesla 4680 battery demand is: 11.4GWh, 74.6GWh, 168.5GWh, 236.7GWh; 2022-2025 Tesla 4680 battery demand by Tesla in-house, Panasonic, LG supply.
6． Analysis of major company investments
Ewell Lithium Energy: From the cultivation period to the harvest period, the performance certainty of 2021-2023 is high. The company's various categories of batteries are deeply bound to mainstream car companies. Overall, the company has a forward-looking strategic vision, the management has super execution, the power battery has moved from the cultivation period to the harvest season, while the consumption battery has grown steadily, the electronic cigarette continues to have high returns, the company's 4680 large battery cell layout is early, the production line has been built, and the incremental market of the 4680 large cylinder is expected to seize the opportunity.
Dangsheng Technology: The company's main layout of ternary cathode materials, in the high nickel ternary system cathode supply link has a scale advantage, and international customers for strategic cooperation and signed a long-term supply agreement, 4680 system and high nickel system high matching, the company is expected to further accelerate shipments with the application of 4680 batteries.
Zhongwei shares: The company, as the leader of the ternary precursor, has a huge production capacity expansion, actively lays out upstream resources, and the proportion of self-supply rises rapidly, and at the same time signs a long-term supply agreement with a number of large customers (including Tesla), and 4680 is expected to promote the shipment of Zhongwei precursors.
Bertry: Negative electrode shipments for many years in the world's first, while the company's earliest mass production of silicon-based anode materials, the company has become Panasonic's second cathode material supplier, large cylindrical cells for high energy density positive electrode, negative electrode demand is expected to drive the company's performance further rapid improvement.
Tianqi Materials: The world's largest electrolyte shipments, while laying out the upstream LiPF6 and LiFSI lithium salt industries to reduce production costs. With its technical advantages, cost advantages and demand for 4680 battery electrolyte, Tianci is expected to continue to expand the proportion of global electrolyte shipments.
Kodali: As a leader in structural parts, the company carries out strategic cooperation with customers at home and abroad, and locks customers in the vicinity. With many years of experience in the supply of cylinders to overseas customers, 4680 is expected to promote Kodari to expand its overseas market share.
(This article is for informational purposes only and does not represent any of our investment advice.) For usage information, see the original report. ）
Featured report source: [Future Think Tank].