BYD "soldiers" under the city of King Ning?

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Car companies produce their own, King Ning abdicates?

BYD can turn over strongly, and one reason that cannot be ignored is its own capacity utilization. Last year, BYD surpassed Tesla with sales of 1.86 million to become the global sales champion, and these cars are all its own lithium iron phosphate batteries, which is also BYD's biggest advantage compared with the Ningde era.

Especially in the past two years, car companies have realized the importance of battery supply, rushed to get rid of the dependence on the Ningde era, and chose to build their own batteries. Once the battery plan of the car company is successful, it will undoubtedly be a fatal blow to the Ningde era. At present, there are not a few car companies that claim to make their own batteries, including head car companies such as Tesla.

It seems that BYD's opportunity has really come.

But homemade batteries are far from as simple as they seem, and there are countless factors to consider in addition to cost and technology. Taking Tesla as an example, the difficulty Tesla is currently experiencing in producing batteries is that its production capacity cannot keep up with the demand for vehicles in front. Data shows that on December 26, 2022, Tesla officially announced that the current weekly production of 4680 batteries reached 868,000 pieces, which is enough to support Tesla's weekly production of 1,000 electric vehicles.

However, if Tesla's sales volume of 1.31 million units in 2022 is calculated, its weekly production capacity will exceed 25,000 vehicles, in other words, Tesla's battery production capacity can only meet Tesla's 1/25 demand, and in a short period of time, the external battery demand of car companies cannot cut off the supply.

In addition, car companies want to produce their own batteries for two reasons, one is to reduce the passive dependence on battery giants; The second is to alleviate cost anxiety during the turbulent period of the industry. However, there is a premise between battery self-production and cost rise, that is, its own car sales. It is reported that the huge investment in R&D and plant construction in the early stage of self-built battery development of car companies, in order to make a car have a battery cost advantage, it must be divided among more than 500,000 car sales.

Coincidentally, the estimates of consulting firm McKinsey have also confirmed this, the premise of new energy vehicle companies to produce batteries to reduce costs is more than 500,000 sales, that is, at least 500,000 new energy vehicles are produced in a region, and self-produced batteries may have cost value. However, looking at the world, there are very few car companies that can steadily sell more than 500,000 vehicles a year.

Tesla and BYD are among the few new energy leaders. Among other automakers, NIO delivered a total of 122,486 new vehicles last year, and as of December 31, 2022, NIO has delivered a total of 289556 new vehicles. As of the end of January 2022, Xpeng's cumulative delivery volume exceeded 150,000 units, and the total delivery volume for the whole year of 2022 was 120,757 units, even if the historical cumulative volume was less than 500,000 units.

If BYD wants to rely on its own strong capacity utilization and wait for the Ningde era to be abandoned and isolated by car companies, from the current form, I am afraid it is unlikely. Of course, in terms of battery supply, Ning Wang was indeed hit by BYD. Today's BYD, in addition to self-sufficiency, is also expanding external supply.

It is reported that many large customers of the Ningde era are quietly turning to BYD, including Tesla, and Xiaomi in the car building is also planning to use BYD's blade battery. However, while the Ningde era is in danger, BYD also has to worry about whether the external supply of batteries is too slow.

According to the statistics of high-tech lithium battery, there are not many external supporting enterprises of BYD batteries, and previously, the proportion of installed capacity and external supply was only 5.56%. All indications are that King Ning will not be able to retire for a while, and BYD's day of ascendancy will have to wait.

Under the high-end, who is embarrassed?

Perhaps, at present, BYD's biggest headache in battery supply is not the number of customers, but the Ningde era has dominated the industry for many years, in some places, BYD can break through, but in some places, BYD is difficult to break, such as high-end tracks. It is undeniable that whether it is a car or a battery, the low-end label on BYD has not been torn off.

Tesla's choice is a good example, it is reported that in Tesla's supply system, LG and Panasonic, CATL are still suppliers of high-end ternary lithium batteries, while BYD is only responsible for supplying lower-end lithium iron phosphate batteries. NIO, Xiaopeng, Avita and other car manufacturers have also chosen the relatively high-end CATL ternary lithium battery as supply.

In fact, due to technical material problems, high-end models are equipped with ternary lithium batteries, and low-end models are equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries, which is a tacit rule of the game in the car manufacturing circle, because the endurance of the former is much greater than that of the latter. With the vigorous high-end movement in the field of new energy, BYD, which has always been out of the circle with low-cost lithium iron phosphate batteries, is inevitably embarrassed.

China is bound to not easily stop the wave of new energy luxury cars in the next two years, on the other hand, in the overseas market, lithium iron phosphate batteries are not as attractive as ternary batteries. Data show that in terms of exports, in 2022, the cumulative export of batteries of mainland power battery enterprises will reach 68.1GWh. Among them, the cumulative export of ternary batteries was 46.9GWh, accounting for 68.9% of the total exports; The cumulative export of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 20.9GWh, accounting for only 30.7% of the total exports.

What makes BYD more embarrassing is that by 2023, lithium iron phosphate production capacity is likely to lead to excess utilization due to the above reasons, according to Soochow Securities forecast, in 2023, with the release of production capacity of major enterprises, the overall supply of lithium iron phosphate in the country will reach 2.371 million tons, but the demand is only 1.846 million tons, and the excess will be as high as 525,000 tons.

It can be said that BYD suddenly encountered the most difficult problem at the critical moment when the army came to the city. The high-end road of new energy, after the past year's brand hard promotion and intelligent stacking, finally to return to the right path of technology, BYD entrenched in the low-end market is a short board, but at the same time, under the high-end wave, the requirements for battery technology are BYD's opportunity to counterattack.

Just like Tesla's self-made battery, on the one hand, it is for the cost, on the other hand, it is also the true color of Musk's technical madness. It is reported that Tesla's self-developed 4680 new battery, compared with the previous 2170 battery, the new battery is more functional, the power output is increased by 6 times, and the vehicle endurance is increased by 16%.

BYD urgently needs to upgrade battery technology to squeeze into the sight of high-end players, lithium iron phosphate batteries lose to ternary lithium batteries, in the final analysis, it is battery life. In 2022, BYD's R&D expenses in 2022 reached 18.654 billion yuan, an increase of 133.44% from 7.991 billion yuan in the same period last year, accounting for about 4.4% of the overall revenue.

But BYD wants to climb the high-end market, CATL will naturally not let go of the opponent's territory, after all, the cost is current, low-cost lithium iron phosphate batteries can be comfortable in the low-end market. It is reported that Ningwang, which is mainly based on ternary lithium batteries, has been increasing the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries.

Even the manganese element material is mixed into the lithium iron phosphate battery, making it become a lithium manganese phosphate battery, which not only has a higher energy density than lithium iron phosphate, but also has a better cost than a ternary lithium battery. BYD urgently needs to show a killer move to prove its determination and confidence in fighting King Ning.

Power battery storm again?

Today, every family in the power battery industry has its own housekeeping skills.

In 2023, the field of power batteries will be stormy again.

When the number of lithium batteries was not fixed, sodium batteries were born. It is reported that the material cost of sodium batteries is 30%-40% lower than that of lithium-ion batteries. Even the promotion period is 0.5-0.7 yuan/Wh; Development period 0.3-0.5 yuan/Wh; The outbreak period is below 0.3 yuan / Wh, so far, some sodium battery manufacturers have controlled the cost at about 0.5 yuan / Wh, even if it is simply for the cost, the next power battery war is bound to burn to this field.

However, there are many companies that coincide with BYD's ideas, and in 2023, many battery manufacturers have announced the latest results of their sodium-ion batteries, and even more have achieved the installation of sodium-ion batteries.

The second echelon is striving for all the possibilities of overtaking in corners, Sunwoda, Funeng Technology, Penghui Energy, etc. have successively announced their involvement in the research of sodium batteries, as early as last year, a number of sodium battery companies have received multiple rounds of financing. In addition, there are many companies that announced the loading of vehicles, in February, the industry's first sodium battery prototype created by Zhongke Haina and Jianghuai Automobile was unveiled, and Dofluoro also said that sodium battery products have been loaded and tested on customer cars.

To be honest, the development of power batteries to today, even if it is not a mainstream subdivision track, as long as there is a possibility of outbreak in the future, it will be immediately robbed by capital. Zheshang Securities expects that the total demand for sodium electricity can reach 88GWh by 2025 and 378GWh in 2030.

This number is compared with lithium batteries, but it is a slight stream, but as the core parts of the whole vehicle, after 2023, the various dazzling skills of new energy vehicles will eventually come to an end, and then the focus will still shift to real technology, especially battery technology. The reason why the Ningde era is firmly seated as the king is, in the final analysis, the technical body.