Author| Mizuki Gong
Editor| Liu Wei
Lowering prices is not a conscience discovery, but a last resort.
In 2023, not long after the cancellation of the new energy national supplement, Tesla announced that it would reduce the price of its models, with a maximum reduction of 48,000 yuan, Model Y starting at 259,900 yuan, and Model 3 starting at 229,900 yuan, a record low.
A few days later, Tesla in the European and American markets also ushered in a wave of price adjustments, which also seemed to be worth the money.
Of course, along with Tesla's price cut, there are not only old owners who defend their rights, but also full orders and a recovering stock price. Tesla China increased orders for 30,000 vehicles within 3 days after announcing the price cut; In the past week, Tesla's stock price has soared 33%, and its market value has skyrocketed by 380 billion yuan.
Although Tesla often adjusted prices in the past, this time, Tesla was actually forced...
I believe that many friends feel that Tesla is the leader of new energy vehicles, but in fact, CATL and BYD are the real leaders.
According to statistics released by SNE Research, a South Korean research institution, CATL still dominates with great advantages, with a global market share of more than 40%. BYD also ranked second on the list for two consecutive months, with CATL and BYD together accounting for 56.5% of the global electric vehicle battery market.
The so-called industry leader must have a benchmarking role. CATL determines the stability of the battery supply chain, BYD is a vertically integrated giant, and as we all know, power batteries are the cost of all new energy models at present, CATL and BYD have unlimited say in the price war at this stage.
Although Tesla in 2022 has exceeded the million mark in production and sales by relying on its rampage performance, it has not completed Musk's annual growth target of 50%. At the same time, Tesla experienced an oversupply situation for two consecutive quarters last year.
When the starting price of Han and Seal is 210,000, the starting price of Model 3 is 280,000, the former's orders continue to flow, while the latter's orders pale in comparison, in the face of BYD and other domestic new energy in the Tesla price range to create huge pressure, Tesla emptied the order pool, forced to reduce the price in exchange for orders.
So the actual situation is that Tesla does not have the initiative to set prices, and the price reduction is all suppressed by peers.
Of course, even if Tesla reduces prices, it is currently the highest gross profit margin among all car companies. According to the calculation of Huatai Automotive Research Institute, Tesla's gross profit margin of bicycles in the first three quarters of 2022 was as high as 27.9%, and after this price reduction, Tesla's domestic models still maintained a gross profit of about 10%, and bicycles still had a profit margin of $3,000.
On the contrary, looking at BYD's sales in 2022, the monthly sales of the dynasty series of Han are 30,000, and the monthly sales of seals of the ocean series are 15,000, and after stopping the sale of fuel vehicles, BYD handed over the best report card since its listing for 12 years, and the net profit scale of a single year exceeded 10 billion yuan for the first time, the highest net profit in the history of the third quarter. In the same year, Tesla delivered 1.31 million electric vehicles and achieved an operating profit of $13.7 billion, with an average profit per vehicle of $10,500.
In fact, it is not difficult to see that the price war in 2023, the main battlefield will revolve around Tesla and BYD, and the rest of the new forces in car manufacturing, traditional car companies, and cross-border manufacturers that are about to enter the game will have to come up with solutions quickly.
In fact, since the end of last year, more than 15 automobile brands have issued price increase announcements, including BYD, Geely Automobile, GAC AION, Changan Deep Blue, FAW-Volkswagen, etc., with price increases ranging from a few thousand yuan to tens of thousands of yuan.
Tesla's price reduction has kicked off the prelude to the price war, and the first to affect brands with similar price ranges and positioning to Tesla are the same. According to car fan statistics, Tesla's in-store users will take the ideal L8, BYD Han, BYD Seal, Xpeng P7, NIO and other models as the main comparison objects.
And because of Tesla's price reduction and the cancellation of subsidies, a considerable number of users are still waiting for other brands to follow up with the price reduction, and these users are currently putting the purchase time to the second quarter of this year.
In fact, in the face of such a situation, many manufacturers will fall into a dilemma: if they do not follow up the price reduction, the competitiveness of their own products will decline, and consumers' desire to buy will decline; But following up on price cuts will make your losses worse. At present, in addition to leading companies such as Tesla and BYD, most new energy vehicle companies are facing a situation where they sell more and more at a loss.
And such a situation also includes actively following up on the price reduction of Qianjie and Xiaopeng.
As can be seen from the 2022 annual performance report of Qianjie, Cialis will achieve revenue of 33.5-35 billion yuan in 2022, up 100.38% and 109.36% year-on-year. However, the loss reached 3.85-4.3 billion yuan, an increase of about 38%-53% over last year.
In the first three quarters of 2022, Xpeng Motors' net profit loss reached 6.778 billion yuan, equivalent to a loss of 68,800 yuan for each car delivered.
Under the premise of such losses, it undoubtedly takes great courage to exchange price for volume to let enterprises survive.
In fact, it is not difficult to find that the sales structure of new energy vehicles has always been a two-end thick and thin gourd structure, and the main consumption forces are concentrated in the high-end and low-end markets.
Tesla, which originally benchmarked BBA, entered the 200,000 price range after this price reduction, disrupting the pricing logic of many car companies. At the same time, more and more car companies are participating in the competition, and 100,000~150,000, 150,000~200,000 new energy models facing transportation have gradually become the main force of automobile consumption.
This situation also means that the price war will become the main factor in the next new energy vehicle competition. Regarding what will happen in the future, here is a bold guess:
1. At present, it seems that the price war will become a long-term battle that pervades the world, and the final result of this battle is predictable: car companies without strength are swept to death, and there are no bones; Powerful car companies tend to be stable, car companies have money to earn, users have cars to drive, and everyone is happy.
2. Looking forward to 2023, BYD has a high probability of continuing to achieve 100% growth, while Tesla's growth rate is conservatively estimated to be only 50%, or even lower, and Tesla may also encounter this situation, so it is likely to launch Model 3 facelifts in the third quarter of this year to increase product attractiveness.
3. Li Bin once said at the second-hand car business conference that even if Tesla drops to more than a hundred thousand, he is not surprised, according to the current Tesla gross profit and the price trend of lithium materials in the market market, Tesla's price still has room to fall, other manufacturers also have, but not as exaggerated as Tesla.
In this price war, price increases and price reductions are not important, survival is the most important.