When Musk felt more and more happy, Tesla suffered another plunge.
On April 26, Tesla plunged 12.18%, and its market value evaporated by about $125 billion (about 819.4 billion yuan) in one day. After the plunge, Tesla's market value also fell below $1 trillion.
Tesla created a round of myths. However, this round of plunge also reflects the market's concerns.
Although a few days ago, Tesla handed over a good report card. On April 21, Tesla released its first-quarter financial report. From January to March this year, Tesla's cumulative production and sales were 305,400 units and 310,100 units, respectively, an increase of more than 65% year-on-year. The automotive business revenue in the first quarter was $16.861 billion, an increase of 87% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin of the automotive business was 32.9%.
However, behind the growth in revenue is frequent price increases. In the face of many catch-ups, can the trick of price increase be invincible all the time?
01
The dilemma of price increases
Tesla cars, getting more and more expensive.
Since March, Tesla has raised prices three times. Behind the price increase, on the one hand, the global auto industry is facing the rise in raw material prices, on the other hand, Tesla's car is in short supply.
Since last year, global car companies have been caught in the production capacity dilemma, and the production capacity of the upper and middle reaches of the supply chain will naturally not be spared. First and foremost is the supply of automotive chips. For example, the core chip of the body electronic stability system produced by STMicroelectronics, STL9369, rose from about 20 yuan to 2800 yuan in one year.
When there is a shortage of parts and components and the price rises, the cost of the vehicle will naturally increase.
In addition to chips, rising battery prices are also deeply affecting Tesla.
According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a global battery supply chain agency that tracks the global battery supply chain, global electric vehicle sales grew by more than 6.3 million units in 2021, an increase of 112% year-on-year. From the beginning of January 2020 to the middle of January 2022, the prices of battery-grade cobalt, nickel sulfate and lithium carbonate also rose by 119%, 55% and 569% respectively.
Among them, the cost of cathode materials containing metals such as lithium, cobalt and nickel in ternary lithium batteries accounts for almost half of the cost of battery materials.
Complete one's misery. In February this year, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict occurred, Russia as a nickel export accounted for nearly 50% of the world's nickel resources exports of super "big landlord", after being sanctioned by the West, nickel prices once again ushered in a sharp rise.
On March 8, the price of nickel metal exceeded $100,000 per ton for the first time on the London Metal Exchange in the United Kingdom, a record high. In the context of the soaring price of nickel metal, the cost of power batteries will inevitably rise.
Before the price increase on March 22, Musk tweeted that "we are not alone" in the matter of cost increases.
In fact, the current price increase of new energy vehicles on the market has indeed appeared repeatedly. In addition to Tesla, the recent new car-making forces "Wei Xiaoli", Chinese brands SUCH as BYD have all seen price increases, with price increases ranging from 1% to 10%. In addition to the increase in car manufacturing costs, 2022, as the last year of the new energy subsidy policy, the subsidy decline is also one of the reasons for the general price increase of new energy vehicles in China this year.
Most notably, the price increase for fully autonomous driving has been increased by Tesla 4 times in the United States since 2019 for the FSD function. In 2020, fully autonomous driving capabilities will rise from $8,000 to $10,000. On January 17, 2022, Tesla's FSD feature was adjusted from $10,000 to $12,000.
It can be said that the tight supply of battery cells caused by the price increase of raw materials has triggered a series of butterfly effects, and Tesla has become a pioneer in price increases.
02
The solution
When the price of new cars rises, Tesla's used cars are also being competed for. The low retention rate of new energy vehicles is an indisputable fact, but Tesla has come out of the independent market. With new cars waiting months, Tesla's used cars have even sold for outrageous prices over new cars.
Behind all kinds of outrageous situations, Musk also has to admit that under the supply chain problem, delivery is a challenge for Tesla. In January, he said: "Due to the continued impact of supply chain issues, Tesla will no longer launch new models this year, but will focus on ensuring further increases in delivery." ”
Tesla also said in its first-quarter earnings report that "supply chain challenges persist and our team has been struggling to solve them for more than a year." ”
To solve the supply chain problem, it is not easy to solve the problem in a short period of time. Before Tesla produced complete vehicles in China, most of the core suppliers came from Japan, the United States and Europe, and domestic companies could only enter the Tesla supply chain system as secondary raw material suppliers.
Source: Tesla 2021 10-k financial statements
With the gradual expansion of production capacity after the completion of the Shanghai Super Factory, there is a strong demand for raw materials in the industrial chain such as batteries, motors, and zero machine housings, and Tesla has also begun to promote the introduction of local Suppliers in China.
In addition, Tesla is also working to alleviate supply chain problems with self-produced batteries and so on. At the same time, Tesla's partners are also accelerating the expansion of production capacity. On March 23, Tesla's long-term partner, LG Energy Solution, announced that it would set aside $1.4 billion to build a plant in Arizona, USA, from this month to 2024, which will become the first U.S. factory to produce cylindrical batteries.
In addition to the undeniable fact that Tesla's supply chain tension, Tesla's blowout capacity will also exacerbate supply chain problems.
In 2021, Tesla's global production and sales were 930422 units and 936222 units, respectively, an increase of 83.53% and 87.38% year-on-year. Despite the continued impact on the supply chain, Tesla said in the first quarter of 2022 that it would reach an annual growth of 50% delivery.
Can Tesla do it? From the current point of view, Tesla's production capacity has been accelerated.
Tesla's existing production lines radiate to the world, with its own factories in North America, Europe and Asia.
Tesla's production lines, models, status and capacity (data source: Tesla 2021 10-k and 2022 Q1)
In April, the much-anticipated Gigafactories in Berlin and Texas finally joined the production team. Among them, the 80-foot-tall Texas Gigafactory has become its global headquarters and is currently the largest factory building in the world, equivalent to 3 Pentagons.
On April 7, Tesla's Texas factory opened with a grand celebration party, Cyber Rodeo, in Austin. Musk, wearing an all-black cowboy hat and sunglasses, shouted on stage: "With the Model Y alone, it will reach an annual output of 500,000 vehicles." ”
According to the Q1 briefing, Tesla's global average inventory cycle is only 3 days. In other words, it takes only 3 days for a Tesla to be delivered from the factory off the production line. This is almost close to the shipment speed of the FMCG industry, and it is no wonder that Musk dares to boast about Haikou.
On the same day, the Texas plant also delivered the first Model Y equipped with self-developed 4680 power batteries, which is another important milestone in its capacity expansion in the past few years. At the same time, it also said that in the future, the plant will become the world's largest battery factory.
It's no exaggeration to say that Tesla is growing at the fastest rate of any large object manufacturer in history. In the past 12 months of 2021, it has delivered more than 1 million vehicles worldwide.
In the layout of Tesla, these factories focus on solving the core component production and supporting problems. Among them, in addition to manufacturing and testing Tesla vehicles, the Frimont plant also manufactures and develops Model S and Model X battery packs and its proprietary lithium-ion battery cells.
The Model 3 and Model Y are manufactured at the Nevada Gigafactory, from battery materials, batteries, modules to battery packs. The plant is the world's largest lithium-ion battery plant operated in partnership with Panasonic, and also produces automotive drive units and energy storage components due to the direct access to high-volume lithium-ion battery units produced by Panasonic, which significantly reduces the cost of battery packs.
In addition to manufacturing cars, the Shanghai Super Factory, which began production in 2019, is also preparing for its own lithium battery cells.
Data source: Tesla 2021 10-k and 2022 Q1
However, no matter how hard Tesla tries, it is still affected by production. For example, the standard version of the Model S/X is far less than the Delivery Model 3. The delivery of about 28,819 vehicles in 2021 has been repeatedly delayed, first, it is these two cars that are the most affected by the supply chain, and second, because production capacity still cannot keep up with consumer demand for Tesla, which has caused Tesla to lose nearly $300 million.
As the global epidemic subsides, Tesla's supply chain problems will also be alleviated to a certain extent. Perhaps Musk, who recently likes to "buy, buy and buy", will also extend his hand to lithium ore production and refining, deeply changing the supply of raw materials for new energy vehicles. He has targeted Tesla at 20 percent of global car production. This means that tesla production will reach more than 16 million units in the future. This ambitious goal will not be easy to achieve.
Author | Pan Hong
Edit | Kerr
Source | CarVisibility
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