Inventory of 22 local car companies in the first quarter: supply chain pressure, performance differentiation is obvious

21st Century Business Herald reporter Song Doudou reported

In the first quarter of 2022, due to factors such as higher prices of upstream raw materials, lack of core and lack of electricity, coupled with the multi-point outbreak of the epidemic supply chain tension, consumer demand tightening and other constraints, the profitability of the automotive industry was under pressure.

According to the statistics of the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, of the 29 Chinese car companies (including 19 passenger car companies and 10 commercial vehicle companies) listed on A-shares, Hong Kong stocks and US stocks so far, 22 car companies (12 passenger car companies and 10 commercial vehicle companies) have announced the first quarter of 2022.

Among them, the revenue of 11 car companies was higher than that of the same period last year, the net profit of 14 car companies declined, only 8 companies achieved a year-on-year increase in net profit, and 9 car companies lost money in the first quarter. Overall, passenger car companies outperformed commercial vehicle companies in the first quarter.

Among the passenger car companies, in the first quarter of this year, Changan Automobile, GAC Group, BYD, Lifan Technology and Haima Automobile (loss narrowed) a total of 5 enterprises achieved a double increase in net profit in revenue, of which BYD and Changan Automobile's net profit increased by the largest year-on-year, 240.59% and 431.45% respectively; Great Wall Motor, Xiaokang Shares, and Beiqi Blue Valley showed "no increase in revenue" in the first quarter; SAIC Motor, Jianghuai Automobile, and Beijing Automobile's revenue and net profit fell twice; in addition, Zotye Automobile's revenue declined. But losses narrowed.

In contrast, commercial vehicle companies performed dismal in the first quarter. Among the 10 commercial vehicle companies that have disclosed a quarterly report, only Zhongtong Bus and Jinlong Bus have increased revenue and net profit, but the net profit of Zhongtong Bus is negative, and only the loss is narrowed; in addition to yaxing bus revenue and no increase in profit, the net profit of 7 enterprises such as Jiangling Motors, FAW Jiefang, Yutong Bus, Foton Automobile, Ankai Bus, Dongfeng Motor, and China National Heavy Duty Truck has dropped sharply, most of which have dropped by more than 50%.

The revenue and net profit of 5 car companies increased twice: BYD and Changan performed brightly

In recent years, the market demand for passenger cars has shown a differentiated K-shaped trend, and the proportion of traditional fuel vehicles has continued to decline, accompanied by the continuous increase in the proportion of new energy vehicles, forming a structural growth trend in the domestic car market.

According to the China Automobile Association, in the first quarter of this year, the cumulative sales of automobiles were 6.509 million units, an increase of only 0.2% year-on-year. However, the new energy vehicle market continued to grow. In March, sales of new energy vehicles were 484,000 units, up 1.1 times year-on-year. In the first quarter, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles were 1.257 million units, an increase of 1.4 times year-on-year, and the market share reached 19.3%.

Taking advantage of the "Dongfeng" of new energy vehicles, BYD, a leading domestic new energy sales enterprise, broke the strange circle of "increasing revenue without increasing profits" in the first quarter of 2022, achieving revenue of 66.825 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2022, an increase of 63.02% year-on-year; net profit of 808 million yuan, an increase of 240.59%; net profit after deduction of non-profit was 514 million yuan, which turned positive after two years.

BYD said that the new energy automobile industry in the first quarter of 2022 generally continued the momentum of rapid growth. BYD's new energy vehicle sales hit a record high, the market share continued to climb, achieved rapid growth year-on-year, led to a significant improvement in profitability, and to a certain extent hedged the profit pressure brought about by the rise in upstream raw material prices.

According to the production and sales express, from January to March 2022, BYD sold about 291,400 new cars, an increase of 179.78% year-on-year. Among them, new energy vehicles sold 286,300 units, an increase of 422.97% year-on-year.

It is worth mentioning that on April 3, BYD officially announced that it will stop the production of fuel vehicles from March 2022. In the future, BYD will focus on pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the automotive segment.

However, while the volume and price rose together and the revenue grew steadily, BYD's gross profit margin in the first quarter was 12.40%, slightly lower than 12.59% in the same period of 2021 and 13.12% in the fourth quarter of 2021.

An auto industry insider told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the main reason for the decline in BYD's gross profit margin comes from the price increase of upstream raw materials on the cost side on the one hand, and from the change of the model structure of the revenue side and the aggressive pricing strategy on the other hand. "BYD has recently launched more new models, and the performance benefits of new models have not yet appeared while research and development expenses have increased. In addition, its recently launched models are more low-end, which has pulled down profits to a certain extent. ”

Due to the benefit of 2.13 billion yuan from the sale of part of the equity of Avita Technology, Changan Automobile's net profit in the first quarter exceeded that of last year (3.552 billion yuan). According to the first quarter report of 2022, Changan Automobile's main revenue was 34.576 billion yuan, up 7.96% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to the mother was 4.536 billion yuan, up 431.45% year-on-year.

It is worth noting that after deducting the investment income of Avita Technology, Changan Automobile's non-net profit in the first quarter was 2.27 billion yuan, an increase of 215.24% year-on-year, still achieving substantial growth. Zhang Deyong, chief accountant of Changan Automobile, said at the performance briefing, "The main reasons include continuous optimization of product structure, focusing resources on high-value models, steadily improving product gross margins, and steadily increasing the profitability of independent products." The data shows that Changan Automobile's gross profit margin in the first quarter increased from 16.64% last year to 18.21%.

In addition, GAC Group also handed over an eye-catching report card, with revenue of 23.145 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, an increase of 45.67% year-on-year. Net profit was 3.009 billion yuan, an increase of 27.17% year-on-year. GAC Group said that the increase in operating income was mainly due to the substantial increase in sales of self-owned brand vehicles, especially the sales of Eian new energy vehicles increased by 1.5 times year-on-year.

According to the GAC Group's production and sales report, in the first quarter of this year, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 598,000 units and 608,000 units, an increase of 24.96% and 22.48% respectively year-on-year. Among them, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles were 52,819 units, an increase of 144.80% year-on-year.

Thanks to the scale effect brought about by the sharp increase in sales in its own sector, GAC Group's comprehensive gross profit margin improved in the first quarter of this year to 6.12%, compared with 5.5% in the same period last year.

The recovery of Lifan Technology's automotive business also supported its first-quarter performance. During the reporting period, the operating income of Lifan Technology was 1.249 billion yuan, an increase of 48.74% year-on-year; the net profit was 50.849 million yuan, an increase of 220.54% year-on-year, which was close to the level of last year (55.6421 million yuan). From January to March this year, Lifan Technology's automobile production and sales achieved substantial growth year-on-year, of which the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles were 5530, which has exceeded the annual sales in 2021.

Greatly affected by the epidemic: SAIC, Great Wall and other net profits declined

Among the 22 car companies that have disclosed their quarterly performance, SAIC Motor ranked first with an operating income of 182.471 billion yuan, but it is still difficult to hide the decline in revenue and profit. As a Shanghai-based vehicle group, SAIC has not had an easy time in the past two months.

"The impact of the epidemic in Shanghai on the company's production and sales in March was about 20%, and the impact expanded in April." Wang Xiaoqiu, director and president of SAIC Motor, said that at present, production capacity is continuing to recover, and SAIC Motor strives to make up for the losses caused by the epidemic in the shortest possible time.

According to the data, the group's cumulative vehicle sales in the first quarter were 1.22 million units, an increase of 6.84% year-on-year, and the output was 1.27 million units, an increase of 5.52% year-on-year, but in March, the group's vehicle sales were 440,000 units, down 10% year-on-year, and the output was 420,000 units, down 16% year-on-year.

The decline in production and sales was reflected in the earnings report. In the first quarter, SAIC's operating income and net profit both declined, of which operating income fell by 4% and net profit attributable to the mother fell by 19%.

"First, the cost of raw materials is high, the second is the increase in assets and credit impairment in the current period, and the third is that management expenses, research and development expenses, etc. have increased compared with the same period last year, Zhiji Automobile and Feifan Automobile are in the brand cultivation period, and the related research and development expenses and marketing expenses have increased." At the performance briefing, Wei Yong, vice president and financial director of SAIC Motor, explained this.

In addition to the epidemic factors, the continuous shortage of chips has also had a certain impact on SAIC. SAIC motor said that the chip shortage is gradually alleviating in 2022, but the shortage phenomenon will still exist throughout the year. "In the face of chip shortage, in 2021, the company will accelerate the implementation of the localization strategy of vehicle-grade chips, and a total of 75 chips will complete localization development and enter the mass production and application of the whole vehicle."

In addition to SAIC, Great Wall Motor's net profit also declined. According to the financial report, Great Wall Motor achieved revenue of 33.619 billion yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 8.04% year-on-year; net profit of 1.634 billion yuan, down 0.34% year-on-year, and deducted non-net profit of 1.303 billion yuan, down 2.41% year-on-year. It is worth noting that this is the third consecutive quarter of net profit decline of Great Wall Motors after the third and fourth quarters of 2021, after the previous two quarters of net profit fell by 35.82% and 1.72% respectively.

Behind the decline in profits, Great Wall Motors' sales in the first quarter also declined. According to the data, the cumulative sales volume in the first quarter of this year was 283,500 vehicles, down 16.32% year-on-year. However, the average selling price and profit of Great Wall Motors' bicycles increased year-on-year. In the first quarter, the average price of Great Wall Motor's bicycles was 119,000 yuan, an increase of 29.12% year-on-year; its average bicycle profit was 0.46 million yuan, an increase of 16.62% year-on-year.

Thanks to the improvement in sales, although the revenue of Xiaokang Shares and Beiqi Blue Valley has increased by more than 50% or even doubled, the loss is still expanding because the sales are still in the climbing stage, and the R& D investment, labor costs, and marketing channel construction costs continue to increase.

In the first quarter of this year, the net loss of Beiqi Blue Valley was 957 million yuan. In fact, Beiqi Blue Valley has lost money for two consecutive years, with a loss of 6.482 billion yuan in 2020, a slight narrowing of 5.244 billion yuan in 2021, and a cumulative loss of 11.726 billion yuan in two years.

As the key to the high-quality development of BAIC Group and the success or failure of the Jihu brand, the new HI version of Alpha S will be the key product to break the game. On May 7, the first mass-produced car equipped with HI Huawei's full-stack intelligent car solution, the new HI version of Jihu Alpha S, was launched, of which the advanced version was priced at 397,900 yuan and the high-end version was priced at 429,900 yuan.

"This year should enter the popular consumption of pure electricity, and we have good expectations for this year at the end of last year." The industry has entered a state of blowout, and we are confident of selling out of stock. But the situation is very confusing, and the epidemic has caused a great impact on the entire supply chain. The problem of market demand is not too big, and now to solve the problem of resources, we still have to work hard to grab resources. Liu Yu, chairman of BAIC BJEV, said in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald reporter recently.

Previously, BAIC BJEV set a target of selling 100,000 vehicles this year. Among them, the sales target of Jihu is 40,000 units, and the sales target of Beijing brand new energy vehicles is 60,000 units.

The second quarter faced a lot of pressure

Shanxi Securities pointed out in the research report that the gross profit margin/net profit margin of the passenger car industry in the first quarter was 11.3%/4.5%, which was not much different from the 11.4%/4.3% in the same period last year, but it was significantly better than the 8.9%/1.8% in the fourth quarter of last year. In the first quarter, the two indicators are gradually strengthening, but in the second quarter, if the production and sales volume are seriously declined due to the impact of the epidemic, the trend of strengthening the industry's prosperity will be destroyed, and it is difficult to judge the strength of the recovery later.

Under the constraints of a variety of factors, the automotive industry is currently facing dual pressures on the supply side and the demand side.

On the supply side, the shortage of automotive chips has not been significantly alleviated, and the price of raw materials for power batteries has risen rapidly this year.

According to business data, the price of industrial-grade and battery-grade lithium carbonate in the first quarter is still in a sharply higher range, with a price increase of about 80% in 3 months. Affected by the soaring price of raw materials, nearly 30 car companies and more than 50 new energy vehicles have announced price increases this year, ranging from thousands of yuan to tens of thousands of yuan.

Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the All-China Passenger Transport Association, said that looking forward to the national passenger car market in the second quarter, it is facing a more complex and difficult environment, especially the huge loss of the automotive industry chain temporarily stationary caused by the outbreak of the epidemic in Shanghai, and the supply of secondary parts will seriously affect sales in the second quarter.

On the consumer side, according to the observation of the China Automobile Association, since November last year, the terminal market has begun to show signs of weakness, and after the Spring Festival this year, due to the direct impact and indirect impact of the epidemic, the terminal market has experienced a sharp decline. At present, most companies reflect that new orders are declining, and the terminal market for new energy vehicles is performing better, but the traditional fuel vehicle market has declined sharply.

According to the weekly report data reported by key enterprises, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers estimates that in April 2022, the sales volume of the automotive industry is expected to complete 1.171 million units, down 47.6% month-on-month and 48.1% year-on-year; from January to April 2022, sales are expected to complete 7.68 million units, down 12.3% year-on-year.

"Compared with the failure of automobile production to keep up, the weakening of terminal demand is more difficult to reverse in the short term, so we expect that without significantly increased policy measures to promote the growth of the automobile industry, it will be difficult to achieve the 5% growth target expected at the beginning of the year this year." Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said.