Auto stock rise and fall list: Changan "take off", the three forces hug the group "diving"

Introduction: The start of May depleted the little warmth left in the closing week of April.

【Key Points】

· Passenger cars and dealer group segments, the average decline in a week exceeded 4%;

· The new energy & intelligent sector fell by 2.24%, and the market value loss exceeded 100 billion;

· The commercial vehicles and parts segments fell 1.9% and 0.75% respectively.

In the 18th week of 2022, the 81 auto stocks registered in the auto K-line statistics failed to continue the recovery trend of the closing week of April, the average stock price decline expanded from 0.68% to 2.85%, and the market value shrank by 294.535 billion yuan, almost 2 times the market value increase in the 17th week, and this was still in the context of A shares due to only 2 trading days of the May Day holiday (US stocks are normal).

From the perspective of the broader market, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Component Index and the Hang Seng Index collectively turned green, with declines of 1.49%, 1.92% and 5.16% respectively.

From the overall list, of the 81 auto stocks, only 18 stocks turned red, 59 stocks fell, Dongfeng Motor's stock price was flat for one week, while Evergrande Automobile, Brilliance China and Rundong Automobile were still suspended.

It is worth noting that Changan Automobile and Beiqi Blue Valley rose by more than 10%, ranking high, and the rest of the red stocks rose within 5%; while as many as 7 stocks fell by more than 10%, and Weilai H shares ranked at the bottom.

Below, the automotive candlestick divides the stocks on the record into five major sectors and analyzes them one by one.

01 Passenger cars: Chang'an leads, "North, Shanghai and Guangzhou" turned red, and the market value of new forces evaporated by more than 100 billion

In the 18th week of 2022, the stock prices of 18 listed companies in the (passenger car) vehicle sector fell by an average of 4.22%, and the market value decreased by 154.551 billion yuan, and only Changan Automobile, Beiqi Blue Valley, SAIC Group and GUANGZHOUC Group A shares rose.

Interestingly, in the past two years, due to the new energy track becoming the new favorite of capital, it is difficult to see traditional state-owned automobile companies so neatly "dominate the list"; even if it is in the top ten of the list, Haima, Jianghuai, Dongfeng, and Xiaokang are also impressively listed. Of course, for BYD, which gives up the fuel vehicle, it is a relatively special existence.

Back to the point, Changan Automobile led the rally last week with an increase of 12.51%, and the stock rose and stopped on May 5; since the bottom of April 27, the performance "flew" the stock price and achieved a "V" reversal.

In the first quarter of 2021, Changan Automobile's net profit attributable to the mother reached 4.536 billion yuan, an increase of 3.68 billion yuan year-on-year; after deducting non-recurring gains and losses caused by Avita's appearance, etc., the non-net profit reached 2.27 billion yuan, an increase of 1.55 billion yuan year-on-year.

It is worth mentioning that last year, Changan Automobile's net profit attributable to the mother was only 3.55 billion yuan, and the performance of the first quarter of this year easily surpassed the whole year, which was indeed "a bit fierce", and also attracted many brokerage institutions to express optimistic expectations. However, a considerable part of the investment income recognized by Avita is somewhat interesting. Some netizens also said that Changan Automobile's accounting and finance are worthy of praise. Can this money be covered for a long time, and the new brand is going to burn money.

In addition to the seemingly excellent performance, Changan Automobile's recent release of a new pure electric brand, Deep Blue, has also brought new expectations to the capital market. It is reported that 2022 is the year of changan automobile's new energy products, which will successively launch Avita 11, Changan LUMIN, C385, C673 and many other products.

By 2025, Changan Automobile said it will launch at least 26 new energy products; among them, by 2025, the sales target of the Deep Blue brand is 600,000 vehicles, and a total of 5 products are currently planned, including C385 and C673, which will be listed this year.

Can Avita and Deep Blue help Changan Automobile's stock price and market value return to the peak? See.

Looking at Beiqi Blue Valley, it is second to rise by 10.73%. Also since April 27, after refreshing the 52-week minimum of 5.4 yuan, the upward channel has been opened.

However, the popularity of Beiqi Blue Valley should have little to do with performance. In the first quarter of this year, Beiqi Blue Valley's attributable net profit was -957 million yuan, and the non-net profit was -973 million yuan; last year, the group lost more than 5 billion yuan.

On the evening of May 7, the listing of the BEIC Polar Fox Alpha S HI version attracted a lot of hot discussion. Can this pure electric vehicle, priced at about 400,000 yuan, become the "Prince Charming" of BAIC's new energy sector under the aura of Huawei, and then save the performance of the group?

In addition to the relatively high gains of Changan Automobile and Beiqi Blue Valley last week, SAIC Motor and GAC Group rose only 2.45% and 0.41%.

On the news side, SAIC Motor announced the April production and sales express. According to the data, in April, the group's sales volume was 166,500 units, a sharp decrease of 60% year-on-year; cumulative sales from January to April were 1.3871 million units, down 11% year-on-year. In the face of the outbreak and continuation of the epidemic in Shanghai, SAIC Motor has borne the brunt of it.

At the same time, SAIC Motor also announced a plan to increase its shareholding, and its controlling shareholder, SAIC Motor Corporation, intends to increase its shareholding by no less than 1.6 billion yuan and not more than 3.2 billion yuan within 6 months to enhance investor confidence. On May 5, SAIC Motor completed its increase in holdings of 311 million yuan.

During the May Day holiday, SAIC Motor also disclosed its annual and quarterly reports. In 2021, SAIC Motor's net profit attributable to the mother was 24.533 billion yuan, an increase of 20% year-on-year, and non-net profit was 18.575 billion yuan, an increase of 4.68% year-on-year. In the first quarter of this year, the group's net profit attributable to the mother was 5.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 20%; deducting non-net profit of 4.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.36%, which is very stressful.

In contrast, GAC Group, in 2021, its net profit attributable to the mother was 7.335 billion yuan, an increase of 22.95% year-on-year. In the first quarter of this year, the net profit attributable to the mother of GAC Group reached 3 billion yuan, an increase of 27.17% year-on-year.

Coincidentally, GAC Industrial Group, the controlling shareholder of GAC Group, is also increasing its H-share holdings, and as of now, its cumulative increase in holdings is about HK$21.517 million (planned to be no less than 50 million yuan, not more than 300 million yuan).

In terms of sales, GAC Motor Group sold 124,000 units in April, down 33.56% year-on-year, and sold 732,500 units from January to April, up 7.14% year-on-year, performing better than SAIC.

Finally, in terms of decline, the three forces of car manufacturing have become the "hardest hit areas", of which Weilai H shares fell by 15.28% to the bottom, and the market value loss exceeded 30 billion yuan. The six individual stocks involved in the three forces have evaporated a total market value of 115 billion yuan.

On the news side, in addition to disclosing delivery data, NIO announced on May 6 that its Class A common stock is proposed for a second listing, and such shares will be listed on the main board of Singapore Exchange Securities Exchange Limited ("SGX") in an introductory manner.

At that time, the shares listed on the Main Board of the SGX will be fully exchangeable with the American Depositary Shares listed on the NYSE. However, this new move in the capital market did not bring much applause to it.

In addition to the three forces, last week,The Great Wall Motor's H shares entered the top three of the decline due to a 13.98% decline, "breaking into" the new forces' falling camp; and on May 6, the intraday refreshed the 52-week minimum of HK$9.65 / share; its A shares also recently refreshed the 52-week minimum of 21.35 yuan / share.

Overall, under the three mountains of epidemic, lack of core and supply cut-off, it is difficult for passenger car companies.

02 Dealers: All down

In the 18th week of 2022, the stock price of the auto dealer group segment fell by an average of 4.41%, and the market value decreased by 12.673 billion yuan, except for Rundong Automobile, all of which turned green; the top three decliners were Meidong Automobile, Autohome and Yongda Automobile, with declines of 9.18%, 7.71% and 5.85% respectively.

Among them, Meidong Automobile refreshed the 52-week low of HK$23.25 per share in intraday on May 6. At present, Meidong Automobile has completed the acquisition of Chasing Star Automobile Sales Group Co., Ltd., which has become its direct wholly-owned subsidiary. As of the close of trading on May 6, Meidong Automobile was quoted at HK$23.75 per share, with a market capitalization decrease of HK$3.049 billion to HK$30.117 billion.

The "dramatic" National Machinery Automobile jumped from the bottom of the list to the top of the list last week, but it still failed to turn red, down 0.16%. As of the close of trading on May 6, the stock was quoted at 6.16 yuan per share, with a market value of less than 9 billion yuan.

The stock has been volatile recently. When asked by investors whether its subsidiary China Automobile Engineering actively participated in the construction of Tesla's production line, Sinomach Automobile said that it had established a good cooperative relationship with Tesla, which is an important partner of the company.

03 New energy & intelligence: Ganfeng Lithium, Ningde era led the decline

In the 18th week of 2022, the 22 individual stocks involved in the 21 new energy & intelligent related listed companies fell as a whole, with an average decline of 2.24% in the stock price in one week, and the cumulative market value of the week evaporated by 122.429 billion yuan. Among them, only 6 stocks have risen in stock prices, and the remaining 16 stocks have declined.

Specifically, Tianqi Lithium once again led the sector, a weekly increase of 2.66%, as of the close of May 6, the stock was reported at 78.46 yuan / share, a weekly market value increased by 2.998 billion to 115.893 billion yuan.

In addition, Corun and BDStar ranked second and third in the sector with weekly gains of 2.55% and 1.81%, respectively.

In terms of declines, Ganfeng Lithium H-shares led the sector with a weekly decline of 10.02%, as of May 6, the stock was quoted at HK$86.2 per share, and the cumulative market value of the week shrank by HK$13.799 billion to HK$123.911 billion. Ganfeng Lithium A-shares ranked third in the sector with a weekly decline of 5.95%.

The world's largest power battery company Ningde Times, with a weekly decline of 8.15%, ranked second in the decline of the sector, as of May 6, the stock reported 375.99 yuan / share, a weekly market value of 77.757 billion to 876.377 billion yuan, the higher point almost waist cut.

On May 5, CATL disclosed the prospectus of the fixed increase. CATL said that the increase of 45 billion yuan will be used for the construction of five projects, namely the Fuding Era Lithium-ion Battery Production Base Project, guangdong Ruiqing Era Lithium-ion Battery Production Project Phase I, power and energy storage Lithium-ion Battery R&D and Production Project (Phase IV), Ningde Jiaocheng Era Lithium-ion Power Battery Production Base Project (Cheliwan Project) and Ningde Era New Energy Advanced Technology R&D and Application Project, which will add an annual production capacity of about 135GWh for lithium-ion batteries, with a construction cycle of 24 months to 48 months The average gross profit margin for each year after the project reaches production is between 17% and 22%, and the internal rate of return is between 16% and 17%.

CATL said that its current production capacity cannot meet the future market demand. After the completion of the capacity ramp and stable operation of the lithium-ion battery production line that has been completed and put into operation, the total design annual production capacity will reach 260GWh to 280GWh. Since the release of this issuance plan, CATL has successively announced the Yichun production base, Guizhou Gui'an New District production base, Xiamen production base, Yibin manufacturing base seven to ten phases of the project and other battery production capacity special construction base projects, the total investment amount of the above battery production capacity special construction base project does not exceed 65.5 billion yuan, assuming that according to the investment intensity of about 300 million yuan / GWh, the corresponding production capacity is about 218GWh; at the same time, the investment project will add an annual production capacity of lithium-ion batteries of about 135GWh The above-mentioned total new production capacity is about 353GWh, which is estimated by 126.07% according to the current capacity supply of 280GWh.

On the same day, CATL also participated in the investment of the National Policy Green Fund with 2345 and others. It is understood that the National Policy Green Fund will focus on equity, convertible bonds or other equity-related investments in intelligent driving, pan-semiconductors, new materials, new energy, medical devices, information technology and other equity-related investment projects that are coordinated and cross-linked between different fields.

Despite the positive news, the stock price of CATL still fell 8.15% on the day, and also made it at the bottom of the sector.

Not only that, dragged down by the Ningde era, the market value of the new energy & intelligent sector evaporated by more than 120 billion yuan a week.

04 Parts: Linglong tires from the lead to lead the rise

In the 18th week, the 10 individual stocks involved in the 9 parts listed companies fell by an average of 0.75% in one week, and the cumulative market value of the week shrank by 1.213 billion yuan. Among them, 4 stocks with stock prices increased and 6 stocks declined.

Specifically, Linglong Tire and Fuyao Glass A shares both led the sector with a weekly increase of 1.29%, as of May 6, the former reported 18 yuan / share, a weekly market value increased to 26.716 billion yuan, while the previous week the stock with a weekly decline of 10.25% bottomed the sector; the latter was quoted at 36.01 yuan / share, a weekly market value increased to 93.977 billion yuan.

In addition, Huayu Automotive and Precision Forging Technology fell by 1.02% and 0.61% respectively in the week.

In terms of declines, Ningbo Huaxiang led the sector with a weekly decline of 4.4%, and as of May 6, the stock was quoted at 12.81 yuan per share, and the cumulative market value of the week shrank to 10.429 billion yuan.

In addition, Fuyao Glass H shares and Dongan Power ranked second and third in the sector with weekly declines of 3.53% and 1.62% respectively.

On May 5, Dongan Power announced the april production and sales data, the monthly engine production and sales were 27395 units and 45102 units, down 56.16% and 30.68% year-on-year, respectively; transmission production and sales were 2684 units and 5726 units, down 38.57% and 45.74% year-on-year, respectively; from January to April this year, the company's cumulative engine sales were 212,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 7.67%; the cumulative sales of transmissions were 28,000 units, an increase of 110.86% year-on-year.

Overall, the parts sector, although performing poorly, saw the lowest average share price decline among the five sectors.

05 Commercial vehicles: China National Heavy Duty Truck H shares, Wuling Motors from leading the rise to lead the decline

The 13 individual stocks involved in the 12 commercial vehicle sectors fell as a whole in the 18th week, with an average decline of 1.9% in the week, and the cumulative market value shrank by 3.669 billion yuan. Among them, 4 stocks rose in stock prices and 8 stocks fell, and the stock price of Dongfeng Motor was flat.

Specifically, Jiangling Motors led the sector with a weekly increase of 4.22%, as of May 6, the stock reported 12.1 yuan / share, a weekly market value increased to 10.445 billion yuan.

In addition, Foton Motor, Zhongtong Bus and Jinlong Automobile rose by 3.65%, 1.44% and 0.2% respectively in the week.

On the news side, Foton Motor announced the April production and sales data, of which the total sales of automobile products totaled 30,000 units, down 62.49% year-on-year, and the output was 24,900 units, down 65.4% year-on-year.

From January to April, the cumulative sales of automobile products were 170,000 units, down 39.78% year-on-year, and the cumulative output was 167,000 units, down 38.78% year-on-year.

Zhongtong Bus disclosed the 2021 annual report, the first quarter of 2022 and the production and sales data in April.

Year 2021. Zhongtong Bus achieved operating income of 4.587 billion yuan, an increase of 4.06% year-on-year, and a net loss attributable to the shareholders of the listed company of 220 million yuan, which was turned from profit to loss year-on-year; the loss of non-recurring gains and losses attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 276 million yuan, and the basic earnings per share was -0.3703 yuan.

In the first quarter of this year, Zhongtong Bus achieved operating income of 863 million yuan, an increase of 30.93% year-on-year; the net loss attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 35.287 million yuan, and the loss narrowed by 11.12% year-on-year.

In terms of sales, the sales volume in April this year was 425 units, and the cumulative sales volume from January to April was 2257 units, an increase of 2.5% year-on-year.

In terms of declines, China National Heavy Duty Truck H shares led the sector with a weekly decline of 10.31%, and as of the close of trading on May 6, it closed at 8.61 yuan / share, and the cumulative market value of the week shrank to 23.772 billion yuan.

In addition, Wuling Automobile fell by 9.52% in a week, ranking second in the sector.

It is worth mentioning that in the previous week, Wuling Motors and China National Heavy Duty Truck H stocks led the sector.

As for other stocks whose stock prices have fallen, the decline is within 4%.

Views of Autoskline：

In the 18th week of 2022, China's auto stocks as a whole once again "turned yin". After all, whether it is the domestic epidemic situation or the international situation is still quite tense, it not only affects the normal operation of automobile companies, but also affects investors' confidence in the stock market to a certain extent.

According to the recent quarterly reports and production and sales data released by most listed companies, the performance of major listed companies has indeed been greatly impacted. This is undoubtedly unfavorable to the performance of auto stocks in the capital market, and the rebound may take a long time.