22/05/09
Lead
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, gave the following judgment.
Author 丨 Du Yuxin
Responsible editor 丨 Xu Jinkai
Edit 丨 Chic
Epidemics, containment, nucleic acids... These words have almost become the "main theme" of the past two months. However, the impact of the "main theme" on the automobile market was soon directly reflected in sales. In April, in addition to BYD, which sold more than 100,000 vehicles, most car companies fell into a "panic" decline from production to sales.
For example, SAIC Motor Group, which is deep in the center of the epidemic whirlpool, has several major head car companies in a very bad situation, ranking among the top three domestic car companies, with an average monthly production and sales of more than 100,000 SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM, with production and sales of only 20,000-30,000 vehicles in April; before the monthly production and sales of SAIC passenger cars, the production and sales of SAIC passenger cars in April were only 178,000, which promoted the total sales of SAIC Group to plummet by 60% in the month and 11% in the first 4 months.
Another GAC Group that released production and sales data for April, even if it is far from the eye of the epidemic storm, it is also "falling and falling", with single-month sales falling by 33% year-on-year, especially GAC Honda, production and sales are also 20,000-30,000 vehicles, down 60% year-on-year.
Sales figures such as Changan Autonomous (67,000 units; -42%), Dongfeng Nissan (58,000 units; -43%), and Great Wall (53,000 units; -41%) have also been released, and the production and sales situation is not optimistic. According to the forecast of the Automobile Manufacturers Association, the sales volume of the whole month is expected to be 1.171 million units, a year-on-year decline of nearly 50%.
Obviously, today's car market is a bit like the feeling that reappeared yesterday when the epidemic first broke out in 2020, but now the spread of Aomi Kerong is far faster than in the past, and the difficulty of epidemic prevention and control has also been comprehensively upgraded compared to the past, so the next car market will usher in a rapid resumption of work and production as in the second half of 2020? Will there be a "retaliatory" backlash in car consumption?
Affected by the epidemic, major changes have taken place in the competition of car companies and the pattern of the car market in April, new energy and traditional fuel vehicles are moving to different situations, and what foreseeable new trends will occur in the future in China's auto market. Not long ago, the Automobile Commune and the secretariat of the Association of Passengers Cui Dongshu launched a detailed dialogue, discussing these topics one by one.
1
The impact of the epidemic continued into the second half of the year
"The overall pressure is still relatively large." This is Cui Dongshu's judgment on the current situation of the automobile market, he said that although the epidemic situation has improved and the resumption of work and production is moving towards a good trend, the process is extremely complicated.
This pressure is not only in the Shanghai area, but also affects the national automobile market and even the economy, which is why Huawei Yu Chengdong and Xiaopeng He Xiaopeng mentioned: If Shanghai is shut down, then the country's auto industry and technology industry will face a shutdown.
Although this statement is a bit alarmist, behind it all conveys that Shanghai, as a financial center, an important logistics and parts hub, has a major impact on the national automobile and even the industrial economy, and this influence has a great relationship with its deep industrial base.
Cui Dongshu analysis believes that for the automobile industry, Shanghai's accumulation is very deep, which can be said to be the tipping point of the industrialization of China's automobile industry, and the most direct landmark event is the landing of Santana's localization that year. The arrival of the domestic Santana not only opened a new era of Chinese automobiles, but also took Shanghai Volkswagen as the center, pulling SAIC and the entire auto parts supply system to walk in the forefront of the country. Therefore, the world's top ten parts companies, basically the operations of the nine major companies and the Chinese headquarters are in Shanghai.
Shanghai has concentrated the country's best industrial clusters, followed by valuable parts industry mechanisms, as well as the most abundant and diversified talent system, which is also the fundamental reason why Tesla, Xiaomi and other enterprises have set up factories in Shanghai. In addition, Shanghai is also an important port city, radiating the entire Yangtze River Economic Belt through the Yangtze River inward, and radiating the entire eastern coast and markets such as Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia outward, and its market position and location, as well as its value and significance in China's economy and automobile industry.
Judging from this relationship, the resumption of work and production in Shanghai has played a great role in promoting and decisively promoting the resumption of work and production throughout the country. Because Shanghai affects not only the operation of Shanghai's internal industrial system, but also radiates and affects the national market.
In fact, the whole of Shanghai in April is basically a state of complete shutdown, but since the second half of April, Shanghai has indeed actively promoted the resumption of work and production of key enterprises, so that SAIC Motor, which is deep in the center of the epidemic whirlpool, still has 150,000 cars off the production line in April, which can be said to be far better than expected.
However, the resumption of work and production is indeed an extremely complex system engineering, especially under the premise of epidemic prevention as the first, the attendance rate of employees is not 100%. In addition, the resumption of work and production requires logistics and transportation as support, which is indeed a difficult and complicated and tortuous process, which is why Shanghai has stopped and the production and sales of the national automobile industry have declined.
"The real recovery of the whole parts must be based on the recovery of Shanghai's transportation, the recovery of logistics is extremely critical, and now the people of the whole country are waiting for Shanghai to make and transport all kinds of parts and components, because this is too important." Cui Dongshu said that although Shanghai has entered the stage of resuming work and production, it is still a low level of resumption of work and production, and the real key is to wait for more people to move objectively.
Obviously, if the people of Shanghai cannot return to normal work and life, the industry of the whole country will be implicated.
In addition to Shanghai's impact on the whole country, the current epidemic situation in more than 20 provinces and cities across the country, including Beijing and Zhengzhou, has also brought more impact to the national automobile production and marketing, especially the 48-hour nucleic acid system, as well as people's relatively cautious prevention and control state, the stimulation of the flow of people and things, and the activity of the entire market economy will be suppressed.
"It is difficult to return to the normal level of the past in May, but there may be a fully effective recovery in July and August, after all, the July-August of the same period last year was affected by the chip crisis, forming a trough in production and marketing." Cui Dongshu said that the second half of the year may not be so embarrassing in terms of data, but the epidemic will not end so quickly in the world, and the recovery of the car market is still a slow process.
2
There is no "retaliatory consumption", stability is the key
Looking back at the epidemic in 2020, the entire Chinese auto market has been in an upward posture, increasing month by month, promoting the overall auto market to pick up in 2020. This year, major car companies have set a lofty growth target at the beginning of the year, with the easing of the chip shortage, after the epidemic control, all car companies are looking forward to the market recovery, and even "retaliatory" consumption.
"There is not much money in the pocket, how can I retaliate?" Steady development is enough. Cui Dongshu said.
Indeed, the impact of the epidemic is far-reaching, as many people think, the time when the epidemic is lifted is the moment when many small and micro enterprises are closed, and for ordinary residents, the tertiary industry that has recently been suspended in some provinces and cities has directly led to the loss of income of this part of the employees. The same is true in the automotive industry, the driving capacity of 10-15% of GDP, once the automotive industry is hit hard, the upper part of the Chinese economy, the lower on the people's life consumption, will be a great impact.
Cui Dongshu judged that this year's Chinese auto market is facing a situation of internal and external troubles, and the overall auto market may completely break the growth level of 5% predicted at the beginning of the year.
On the one hand, the internal worry is that the people's consumption capacity is relatively not particularly strong, "the lost production capacity can be snatched back, but the consumption capacity is lost, it may not be able to grab back, this month did not get money, next month can not find a supplement back, the purchase capacity is under pressure." Cui Dongshu believes that the epidemic has made everyone have less money in their pockets and their ability to consume has become weaker.
The other aspect of internal worry is the car company side, the overall problem of the current supply chain is more complicated than the original, the cost of the vehicle in the context of raw material prices increased, transportation costs exploded in the context of a significant increase, so that car companies in the actual operation process costs increased significantly, this part of the cost will be passed on to consumers to a certain extent, bringing terminal preferential pullbacks, to a certain extent also hit people's enthusiasm for car consumption.
The external problem is the pressure on China's automobile import and export, the current European automobile consumption is affected by the international situation, on the one hand, China's automobile exports to Europe are facing severe pressure. At the same time, in terms of imported cars, due to the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war in Europe, The production of automobiles in Europe has also ushered in a sharp decline, and the fluctuation of the foreign exchange index will also affect the consumption potential of the domestic imported automobile market to a certain extent.
In the Shanghai market, due to the shutdown of the retail market for more than a month, Shanghai's automobile consumption has also stagnated. However, due to the fixed nature of Shanghai's market license plates and indicators, it can only be said that normal automobile consumption will be supplemented after the end of the epidemic, and retaliatory automobile consumption will not appear. "New energy vehicles, you should still have to queue, new cars still have to clap cards, it is impossible to retaliate against the cards, right?" Cui Dongshu teased.
But the stimulation of consumption is always needed, Cui Dongshu believes that because 55% of the GDP composition is brought by consumption, so in order to promote consumption in the post-epidemic era, it is also necessary for local governments to give promotion fees to the policy, driving residents to gradually dare to go out of the house, dare to place orders, dare to have confidence to consume.
Recently, from the central to the local level, there have been policies to stimulate automobile consumption. For example, Guangdong and Shenzhen took the lead in action, Guangzhou exchange car maximum subsidy of 10,000 yuan / car, while increasing 30,000 car purchase indicators, Shenzhen added 10,000 car purchase indicators, driving car consumption.
At the same time, Cui Dongshu also suggested that while stimulating automobile consumption, it is more important to take care of the car consumption of first-time users. Especially some consumer groups in the tertiary industry, this part of the consumption has been greatly affected by the epidemic, and they are the backbone of society, neither very rich, need to drive to meet a variety of production and living needs, so they have a higher demand for economical traditional fuel vehicles such as 8-100,000 yuan.
"Entry-level cars must be effectively pulled, and more encouragement and support should be given, so that these people dare to buy cars after the epidemic, improve the quality of life and improve the environment, which is a good thing for the industry." Cui Dongshu said.
3
BYD "sits two and looks at one"
From last year's chip crisis to this year's epidemic impact, in fact, the entire industry has suffered, but BYD, as a very special company, has continued to catch up in the market turmoil in the past two years. Especially in April this year, it still maintained the rhythm of selling 100,000 vehicles per month. Due to the stagnation of production and sales of FAW Group due to the epidemic in Changchun, production and work did not resume until late April, and it is no accident that BYD will win the monthly sales championship of car companies this month.
Why can BYD? Even before Shenzhen has also appeared a 7-day lockdown, the analysis is mainly because the retail end OFD has accumulated more orders, especially DM-i and Dolphin and other economic pure electric vehicles, even if the epidemic has affected the flow of customers to the store, BUT can still deliver the previous cumulative orders to achieve the normal promotion of sales.
The second is its strong system capabilities, which can ensure the supply and production of parts. Although you see BYD automobiles, in fact, BYD has several industrial lines, such as consumer electronics, yunnan, solar energy, etc., and BYD's OEM foundry ability is super, which is a strong performance of its system capabilities, and these system capabilities will also bring resilience to the company's ability to resist risks.
Unlike many car company parts originating in Shanghai, BYD has its own batteries, as well as independent chips and independent pure electric and hybrid systems, this powerful system and independent supply chain capabilities, can allow BYD to face changes in the external environment, all strategies and adjustments are more flexible, not only can cope with the impact of the epidemic, but also form a unique feature.
Of course, the formation of this characteristic is directly related to the Greater Bay Area where it is located. In fact, since the reform and opening up, with Shenzhen as the leader and Guangdong as the base camp, a strong supply chain system capability has been established, coupled with Taiwan's chips and Southeast Asian chip packaging, so half of the country's mobile phones, televisions and electronic products are produced in Guangdong.
Therefore, BYD is in this supply chain system, and with the gradual itating of automobiles, this combination of capabilities and the ability to deal with risks are particularly strong. Cui Dongshu believes that BYD is not only a representative of auto companies, but also a representative of China's excellent manufacturing integration.
At the beginning of April, BYD announced the suspension of fuel vehicles, becoming the first automobile company in China to stop production of fuel vehicles. "BYD's move is more clever, winning both face and winning." Cui Dongshu said.
From the face point of view, the discontinued fuel vehicle itself is a positive image, which is a matter of smooth sailing in the current hot new energy market. From the perspective of Lizi, BYD is also a hot car, F3 sells 80,000 yuan, Qin DM-i sells 120,000 yuan, of course, it is a good deal to sell.
"There should be no problem in entering the top two, at least the top three are guaranteed, and it is even expected to sit on the second and look at one, reaching sales of 1.5-1.8 million vehicles throughout the year." Cui Dongshu predicted that BYD has become a leader in plugging and mixing, while the German and Japanese have basically given up in this regard, which has reduced the degree of market competition to a certain extent, providing a good growth opportunity for leading enterprises such as BYD.
4
Next year, autonomy will account for half of the country
In fact, not only BYD is thriving, the momentum of independent brands in the past two years has ushered in major technological breakthroughs and industry leadership, whether from pure electricity to plug and mix, and more and more signs show that the turnaround battle of Chinese brands has come. From the data point of view, the share of independent brands reached 41.6% last year, about 38% the year before, and in March this year, the share of independent brands has reached 48.5%.
"Our curve overtaking has achieved great results, and we feel that in 2023, our own brands will exceed 50% of the share and reach a scale of 10 million vehicles." Cui Dongshu firmly believes that this is a matter of course, and the differentiation of industries and enterprises is intensifying, and after strong enterprises seize the breakthrough of technology and cost, the sales of independent brands will show an explosive growth trend.
At present, on the road of new energy vehicles, many European and Japanese and Korean companies are facing an extremely passive situation, although the underlying innovation ability of these enterprises is very strong, the basic innovation ability is doing well, but at the application level, such as batteries, intelligent level, Chinese companies are in the stage of comprehensive leadership, and with international car companies to open up a large gap. Cui Dongshu said that the possibility of China's new energy vehicle field retaking the mobile phone route is extremely obvious.
Especially in the field of new energy, pure electric vehicles take the lead autonomously, and the current hybrid market has formed a new situation of independent development, in addition to BYD, Geely, Changan, Chery, GAC have launched hybrid systems, and a more obvious route difference has been formed between autonomy and Europe. Although hybrid as a transitional program, but if this transition period breakthrough is slow, reaching 10 years or even longer, it is a great opportunity for independent brands, the key is that we plug in hybrid has obtained a huge breakthrough in the industrial chain of independence, but also will become the best solution to replace fuel vehicles in the medium and long term.
From the data point of view, it is not difficult to find that since last year, traditional fuel vehicles have declined at a rate of more than 10% per year, new energy vehicles have risen at a rate of more than 100% per year, and independent brands in new energy vehicles account for 80% of the share, so the growth potential of the automobile market basically depends on independent brands to obtain increments, which is a take-off for independent brands.
"China's independent industrial chain has been relatively mature, through our full market competition, independent brand enterprises can be combined with the advantages of local supply, while international car companies in China have not taken root, did not enjoy the dividends of China's local supply chain, their performance is facing relatively large pressure, and individual joint ventures or foreign-funded enterprises still hold a superior mentality to see us, their pressure and risk is greater." Cui Dongshu analyzed it like this.
In Cui Dongshu's view, the advantages of China's new energy automobile industry are also reflected in more upstream fields, such as mining, in fact, China has mastered a lot of mineral resources in the world, such as Africa and Chile have a lot of Chinese mining enterprises, when the world's energy gradually shifts from oil to electric energy, this mineral resource is a great advantage, while China in so many years of advance layout, coupled with the Spirit of Hard-working in China's national nature, has gradually established a systematic advantage.
"We believe that Chinese cars, especially China's autonomous passenger cars driven by New Energy Passenger Vehicles, will have a good future." Cui Dongshu said.
Du Yuxin
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