Recently, the first quarter of 2022 sales released, from the overall perspective of the auto market, in March 2022, automobile production and sales reached 2.241 million units and 2.234 million units, up 23.4% and 28.4% respectively, down 9.1% and 11.7% year-on-year, respectively. From January to March 2022, automobile production and sales were 6.484 million units and 6.509 million units, respectively, an increase of 2.0% and 0.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 6.8 percentage points and 7.3 percentage points lower than that of January and February, respectively.
In terms of passenger cars, according to the latest data from the Association of Passenger Vehicles (narrow passenger cars), wholesale sales of manufacturers in March were 1.814 million units, down 1.6% year-on-year and 23.6% month-on-month, and wholesale sales of manufacturers in January-March were 5.439 million units, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year. However, the retail sales of passenger cars in the passenger car market in March 2022 were 1.579 million units, down 10.5% year-on-year and 25.6% month-on-month. Cumulative retail sales from January to March totaled 4.915 million units, down 4.5% y/y and 230,000 units year-on-year.
It can be seen that whether it is from the perspective of the overall automobile market or the passenger car market, although the first quarter achieved a slight increase, the situation is not optimistic, the overall growth rate of the automobile market in the first quarter has fallen, and the reduction in terminal retail sales is enough to show that the automobile market is still under pressure, and the pressure comes from the recurrence of the epidemic, the shortage of chip supply has not been alleviated, and the price of raw materials is still high.
On April 9, WEIO's official APP showed that since March, due to the epidemic, the company's supply chain partners in Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places have stopped production one after another and have not yet recovered. Affected by this, WEILAI's vehicle production has been suspended.
On April 14, He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng Motors, posted on social platforms: "If supply chain companies in Shanghai and the surrounding areas cannot find a way to dynamically resume work and production, all Chinese automakers may have to stop work and production in May." The good news is that some ministries and authorities are doing their best to coordinate, and we expect the support and joint efforts of more governments and authorities. ”
In addition, the fuel vehicle market has also seen price increases, following Mercedes-Benz launched the "first shot" of fuel vehicle price increases, BMW has adjusted the price and configuration of 3 Series, X3, X4, 4 Series and Z4 models, and the price has risen by 1600-11000 yuan. At the same time, Weipai announced that from April 15, the official guidance price of the coffee series on sale will be adjusted, including fuel and hybrid models, with an increase of 5,000-12,000 yuan.
It can be seen that the pressure that the follow-up car market will face is likely to be increasing, and it is very difficult to maintain stable growth throughout 2022, so the China Automobile Association calls on car companies to actively respond to external difficulties at the same time, the state should also introduce relevant policies to promote automobile consumption and stabilize the growth of the automobile market. What kind of policies can achieve obvious results in the short term, and the current pressure on the environment in the car market? In this issue, we will discuss with industry experts.
Cui Dongshu
Secretary-General of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association
Recently, the State Council proposed to encourage automobile consumption, and all localities must not add new car purchase restriction measures, and those who have implemented purchase restrictions need to gradually increase incremental indicators. If Beijing does not relax the purchase restriction, the policy will not achieve the expected effect, and the policy of halving the purchase tax of small-displacement models is not expected to be implemented again.
At present, the most effective policy to stimulate consumption is to issue consumption coupons, so that the government subsidizes car companies to "be forced to increase prices helplessly", of course, this is still a symptom rather than a cure, the resumption of circulation is the core, through the policy to restore the normal supply of raw materials, chips, etc., restore the stability of the supply chain, under the epidemic epidemic prevention policy do not increase the number of layers to the local, causing an overreaction, orderly resumption of production, many problems will be solved, and then the introduction of stimulus consumption policies will be more effective with half the effort.
Chen Shihua
Deputy Secretary-General of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
Raw material prices rise is due to changes in market supply and demand, market demand is large and insufficient supply, naturally lead to price increases, such as lithium carbonate unit price from 50,000 yuan / ton to 500,000 yuan / ton, can only be expanded by expanding production capacity to make its price stable or slightly up and down, through policy stimulation in a short period of time will be lithium carbonate unit price from 500,000 yuan / ton to 400,000 yuan / ton is very difficult. Therefore, the current government's introduction of consumption-oriented policies will have an effect in a short period of time, such as opening up the purchase restrictions in large cities (especially in Beijing), halving the purchase tax for small-displacement models, going to the countryside for cars, and issuing car consumption coupons.
Song Qinghui
Famous economist
The impact of the automobile industry economy on China's overall economy is very extensive, and it is necessary to introduce a series of policies to rescue the market. On the one hand, the new energy automobile industry has become one of the new engines driving China's economic growth, and it can also drive the "double carbon" goal to be achieved as soon as possible. On the other hand, the automobile industry can pull the industrial chains of steel, rubber, petrochemical, chips, tourism, new energy and so on, and has an obvious pulling effect on china's economy. According to statistics from Qinghui Think Tank, in China's economic cycle, automobile consumption accounts for about 10% of GDP.
If you want to promote automobile consumption in the short term or long term through policies and stabilize the growth of the automobile market, you need to do the following three points: First, all localities should relax the car purchase restrictions, and the incremental indicators should be gradually increased for those who have implemented the car purchase restrictions; the second is to accelerate the construction of charging piles to solve the problems of "charging difficulties" and "expensive charging" of new energy vehicles. At present, the mainland automotive industry has entered a new era of electrification, but the current construction of charging piles has not kept up with the pace of development of new energy vehicles; the third is to issue automobile consumption subsidy coupons to consumers as much as possible, especially for individual consumers who buy new energy vehicles, and give higher subsidies according to the classification of car purchase amounts.