Fifty steps and a hundred steps, it is difficult to distinguish between victory and defeat
Text/Shanshan Xu
According to the daily automotive telecommunications collation, in addition to Lantu has not yet announced the sales results of the previous month, including "Wei Xiaoli", Nezha, Zero Run, as well as Eian and Extreme Kr and other mainstream new energy brands have released their sales data.
In the "falling sound" of pure electric vehicle sales, Extreme Krypton increased by 19% month-on-month, becoming the only positive growth representative among the seven companies, while Zero Run successfully broke through with a year-on-year increase of 228% and single-month sales of 9,087 vehicles, ranking first among new forces for the first time.
Overall, the new energy market in April, both on the production side and on the demand side, is facing great pressure. According to the China Automobile Association, in April this year, the domestic automotive industry sales are expected to be 1.171 million units, down 47.6% month-on-month and 48.1% year-on-year.
Although caucus has not released relevant forecasts for new energy vehicle sales, the overall decline is a foregone conclusion. However, from the above form, it can also be clear that compared with traditional OEMs such as BYD and GAC Aean, the supply chain of the new car-making forces is indeed more fragile.
In particular, the outbreak of the epidemic in Jilin and Shanghai has made this point unmistakable.
April sales Waterloo, it is difficult to win or lose
Taking "Wei Xiaoli" as an example, the sales volume of the three companies has fallen sharply compared with the previous month, with Weilai approaching 50% and the ideal more than 60%.
The reasons given by Weilai and Ideal are the same in that due to the impact of the epidemic, suppliers in many places have stopped production one after another, coupled with the factors of logistics congestion, they cannot even supply. As a direct result, the depot cannot continue production after digesting the existing parts inventory, which affects the subsequent delivery time of new cars.
For this, Zero Run gave the answer to the first place. Based on global self-research, Zero Run adopts "multi-supply enterprise and multi-regional planning" in the choice of supply chain, which effectively reduces the impact of the epidemic on supply chain supply assurance. In addition, scientifically improving the inventory level of parts is obviously an important issue for the new forces in the future.
In addition, Tianfeng Securities also pointed out in a research report on May 3 that the models of the new car-making forces are relatively single compared with traditional OEMs, so it is less likely to deploy parts between different models. In fact, through this sales report card, Weilai and Ideal are obviously lagging behind Xiaopeng, and the models on sale are a large part of the reason.
NIO's current main sales of ES8, ES6 and EC6 models are released before 2021, and in the period of intensive listing of new energy vehicles, it seems that it is not so cost-effective to start old models at a higher price. However, NIO began delivering the new CAR ET7 at the end of March, with sales of 693 units last month, which is expected to lay the foundation for NIO's next sales "breaking 10,000".
Ideally, the L9, which was scheduled to be released during the Beijing Auto Show, was forced to postpone its listing due to the epidemic. With only one model in hand, ideal has begun to show weakness in the face of the crowded SUV market.
The sales target of 10,000 vehicles is still the bottleneck in front of the new car-making forces. Whether it's diversifying supply chains or accelerating the rollout of new vehicles, new forces must react faster to the pandemic. Once it slows down, it is possible to be surpassed.
As for the full resumption of work and production, it is the top priority of the entire automobile industry at present. SAIC Motor recently said that its vehicle companies are expected to gradually resume normal production in late May, and production and sales will strive to reach the same period last year. Despite the epidemic before, more thinking left by this big test may have to be cashed in in the second half of this year.
The global auto market is a circle, with cold lips and teeth
The market generally believes that with the gradual unsealing of Shanghai in May, the backlog of car purchase demand may be released quickly, and the production and delivery of car companies are also expected to rebound. The epidemic in the two places has dragged down the development of the overall new energy market, which undoubtedly shows the key role played by Jilin and Shanghai in the domestic automotive industry chain.
In fact, the world is a circle, and the car market outside China has also been greatly affected. According to the daily automotive telecommunications comprehensive external electricity collation, the registration of new energy vehicles in seven European countries in April fell by 19.23% month-on-month to 158,800 units.
In addition to inflation, the logistics and transportation caused by the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the epidemic in Shanghai have also made overseas depots face more tight parts supply problems. In fact, in addition to the European market, Japanese car companies, including Toyota and Mazda, have also fallen into temporary suspensions due to the epidemic in China.
In addition, from the above form, it can also be seen that the development fundamentals of China's new energy market are relatively leading compared with European countries. At present, the penetration rate of the domestic new energy market is close to 20%, although the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Norway is more than 80%, but the monthly scale is only more than 10,000.
In contrast, China's new energy market has a larger number of buyers and greater growth opportunities. In May, the new forces will usher in the first small examination of the resumption of work, and we will wait and see.