Because of the epidemic, many factories in Shanghai, Jilin, Guangdong and other places have stopped working, and production has been greatly affected. At the same time, the instability of the external environment has also slowed the growth rate of exports. These factors added up to a double-digit year-on-year decline in the domestic passenger car market in March.
Fortunately, the new energy vehicle market continued its previous strong momentum, with retail penetration reaching 28.2% in March and cumulative sales of 1.07 million units in the first quarter, up 146.6% year-on-year. According to the annual sales forecast of 5.5 million units of the Association, 19.45% has been completed.
In this regard, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said: "Since the market will have a quarter-by-quarter upward momentum, the current performance of this market is better than our expectations, and we still maintain the expected target of 5.5 million for the whole year." ”
Overall retail sales in March down 10.5% y-o-y
In March, retail sales in the domestic passenger car market reached 1.579 million units, down 10.5% year-on-year, and wholesale sales of 1.814 million units, down 1.6% y/y. Throughout the first quarter, cumulative retail sales were 4.915 million units, down 4.5% year-on-year, and wholesale sales reached 5.439 million units, up 8.3% year-on-year, with the overall trend lower than expected.
The reason is that the epidemic has caused a certain impact on dealers in Jilin, Shanghai, Shandong, Guangdong, Hebei and other places to enter stores and deal with transactions, and the changes in local management measures have a certain impact on logistics efficiency.
In addition, although the overall output of the domestic passenger car market in March fell by only 0.3% year-on-year, Secretary-General Cui Dongshu said that in fact, this did not fully meet the structural expectations of manufacturers, "since the middle of March, Changchun, Shanghai and other places have appeared some production and living static, this state has brought extremely serious impact to some manufacturers." ”
In particular, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi in luxury brands have suffered certain capacity losses, and the output is seriously lower than expected, such as BMW Brilliance's output of 31251 vehicles, AND FAW-Volkswagen Audi only produced 28281 vehicles. This also led to retail sales of only 230,000 units in the domestic luxury car market in March, down 14% year-on-year.
In contrast, the retail sales volume of independent brands reached 750,000 units last month, an increase of 17% year-on-year, and the domestic retail share was 48.2%, an increase of 11.5 percentage points year-on-year. From January to March, the cumulative retail sales market share of independent brands reached 48%, an increase of 9.7 percentage points compared with the same period in 2021.
In addition, the retail sales of mainstream joint venture brands in March were 590,000 units, down 30% year-on-year, and the market share was further squeezed. Among them, the share of Japanese brands was 20%, down 3 percentage points year-on-year; the share of German brands was 18%, down 7 percentage points year-on-year; and the retail share of American brands was 10%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year.
The penetration rate of new energy in luxury vehicles has increased significantly
In the new energy passenger car market, retail sales in March were 445,000 units, up 137.6% year-on-year, and wholesale sales reached 455,000 units, up 122.4% year-on-year. From January to March, the retail sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 1.070 million units, an increase of 146.6% year-on-year, and the wholesale volume reached 1.190 million units, an increase of 145.4% year-on-year.
The Association believes that although the main sales cities of new energy such as Shenzhen and Shanghai were seriously affected by the epidemic last month, because new energy vehicles mainly use the order model, even if there is no price increase in the past month, the overall order is still sufficient, so the market performance is not reduced.
From the perspective of wholesale volume, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 25.1% in March, an increase of 14 percentage points from the 11.1% penetration rate of the same period last year. Among them, the penetration rate of independent brands reached 41%, compared with 32% in January and 38% in February, and independent brands continued to maintain a strategic trend in the new energy market.
If the rapid increase in the penetration rate of new energy by independent brands is normal in the eyes of most people, then the performance of luxury brands is expected to surprise many people. Last month, the new energy penetration rate of the luxury car market reached 34%, compared with 22.9% in January and 29.4% in February, which has been a significant improvement.
In contrast, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles of mainstream joint venture brands from January to March was 2.7%, 3.3% and 3% respectively, which still did not open the situation.
In terms of models, the wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles in March were 371,000 units, an increase of 116.8% year-on-year; plug-in hybrid sales were 84,000 units, an increase of 151.3% year-on-year.
In addition, the wholesale sales of the A00 class last month were 119,000 units, accounting for 32% of the pure electric vehicle market; the wholesale sales of the A0 class were 55,000 units, with a market share of 15%,; the share of A-class electric vehicles was 22%,; and the wholesale share of B-class electric vehicles was 113,000 units, with a market share of 30%.
At the enterprise level, there are 13 enterprises with wholesale sales exceeding 10,000 vehicles, an increase of 2 over the same period last year. Among them, BYD, Tesla China and SAIC-GM-Wuling still ranked in the top three, with wholesale volume of 104338, 65814 and 51157 vehicles respectively.
This was followed by Chery Automobile with 21,817 units, GAC Aian 20,317 vehicles, Changan Automobile with 15,624 vehicles, Xiaopeng Automobile with 15,414 vehicles, Great Wall Motor with 15,057 vehicles, Geely Automobile with 14,166 vehicles, Nezha Automobile with 12,026 vehicles, Ideal Automobile with 11,034 vehicles, SAIC Motor with 10,880 passenger cars, and 10,059 zero-run cars.
Only one of the traditional top three vendors is left
Thanks to the strong performance of the new energy vehicle market, independent car companies have also made progress in the manufacturer rankings. In terms of narrow passenger car retail sales, Changan Automobile and BYD squeezed into the top three, and Geely Automobile ranked fourth. Among the traditional top three, SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM have fallen seriously, and only FAW-Volkswagen still holds the first position.
However, from the perspective of growth rate, the four traditional sales companies FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC-GM and Dongfeng Nissan fell by 40.2%, 34.65%, 40.5% and 33.5% respectively last month, and the decline was more serious. Among the top 10 joint venture brands, only GAC Toyota maintained a growth trend, and the increase was as high as 26.9%.
If it is a comparison of wholesale volume, Changan Automobile has taken the lead in one fell swoop, beating the north and south Volkswagen with a wholesale volume of 132,000 vehicles. In addition, Guangqi Honda replaced Dongfeng Nissan in the top ten.
Overall, thanks to the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market, the Matthew effect in independent brands has become more and more obvious, and several head car companies have performed stably and strongly. Although the Performance of Japanese brands in the new energy vehicle market is mediocre, it is as stable as Taishan in the traditional fuel vehicle market, especially the four joint ventures composed of "two fields".
Compared with the decline of Dongfeng Nissan, the reason why "Two Fields" can maintain positive growth is largely due to the higher oil-electric hybrid market. In March, the wholesale volume of domestic gasoline-electric hybrid passenger cars reached 74,625 units, an increase of 62% year-on-year, of which 44,610 were in Toyota and 22,990 in Honda.
As mentioned earlier, the German brand has dropped to 18% of the market share, a decrease of 7 percentage points compared with the same period last year.
Although North-South Volkswagen's new energy vehicles were wholesaled in 12,709 units last month, breaking through 10,000 consecutively and occupying 63% of the mainstream joint venture share, it shows that its electrification transformation strategy has achieved initial results, but it cannot stop the serious decline of its traditional fuel vehicles.
New energy vehicles also buy up or not buy down?
Since 2021, due to the shortage of chips and the increase in raw material prices, the speed of the increase in the cost of vehicles and power batteries has greatly exceeded the industry's expectations. Entering 2022, commodity prices have soared due to geopolitical factors, further increasing the pressure on rising raw material costs.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the revenue of the automotive industry in January-February 2022 increased by 6% year-on-year, the cost increased by 8% year-on-year, and the overall profit fell by 10% year-on-year. Compared with the average of 5% year-on-year climb in the overall profit of mainland industrial enterprises, the pressure on automobile companies is increasing.
Although more than 20 car companies have raised the price of new energy vehicles in the past month, the Association believes that the price increase is relatively rational and will not have a negative impact on the heat of the market. In particular, the high oil price has led to an increase in the advantages of new energy, and plug-in hybrid models have played a certain diversion role in the fuel vehicle market.
In addition, the rigid demand of consumers of new energy vehicles is stronger, and the price sensitivity is relatively low, so small price changes will not significantly affect consumer demand for new energy vehicles. Secretary General Cui Dongshu said: "The order locking before the price increase has formed a follow-up effect, and the phenomenon of buying up and not buying down is more obvious. ”
So overall, although the price of new energy vehicles has increased, it is not expected to affect the momentum of market growth. At the same time, in the case of "lack of core and short lithium", the competitiveness of China's automobile industry has been improved. In 2021, the world share of China's auto market will be 32%, and from January to February this year, this data will rise to 36%, creating a new high.