Changan suspended the rush order, is the thorny era of micro-electric vehicles coming?

Wuling Hongguang MINIEV.

The highly sought after new energy car market seems to have reached a point in time for remodeling.

According to the data of the Association of Automobile Associations, the share of the A00 class in the pure electric market in March was 32%, the share of the A0 class was 15%, and the proportion of micro-electric vehicles was still strong; specifically, the Wuling Hongguang MINI EV won the top spot in the new energy car segment with a total sales volume of 41980 units; in addition, qq ice cream, Ben Ben E-Star, zero-run T03 and other new energy cars are also in the list of new energy car TOP 15.

Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Passenger Car Market Information Joint Association, believes that the proportion of new energy vehicles below 80,000 yuan is relatively strong, the proportion of A00-level new energy vehicles is still relatively strong, and the trend of A00-A0 low-end new energy vehicles is relatively strong.

But there are always thorns behind the flowers. A few days ago, Changan New Energy announced the suspension of its Ben E-Star national version of the model orders; it is reported that there are 9 models of the Ben Ben E-Star, of which the national version of the lowest price, 29,800 yuan - 43,800 yuan. In fact, the suspension of orders, Running E-Star is not alone, in February this year, Euler White Cat and Black Cat also announced that they would stop taking orders.

The industry believes that in the face of multiple factors such as the rise in the price of upstream raw materials and chips, the new low price of integral transactions, the continuous decline of new energy subsidies, and consumption upgrades, the A00-A0 level micro-electric vehicle market is under obvious pressure, or it has reached the time of remodeling.

It is easiest to break into the market, but it is difficult to bypass the cost barrier

It has become the consensus in the industry that A00-class pure electric vehicles with price advantages can enter the market as soon as possible and drive the penetration rate of new energy vehicles.

In 2021, Wuling Hongguang MINI EV directly help 395451 ed SAIC-GM-Wuling to win the second place in the annual retail sales of new energy manufacturers with a total of 431,130 vehicles. Changan new energy vehicles with the help of Ben Ben E-Star to open the market, in 2021 Changan new energy vehicle sales of 100,000 units, of which the micro electric vehicle Changan Ben Ben E-Star sales reached 76,000 units, accounting for more than 70% of the total sales of Changan New Energy; in the first quarter of this year, the sales volume of Ben Ben E-Star continued to rise, more than 85%.

Not only that, the layout of micro-electric vehicles can alleviate the pressure of double integration of car companies, for example, SAIC-GM-Wuling won 440,000 points last year with Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, which can also sell excess new energy points and make a profit while solving the double integration gap.

However, there are also opposing parties to the development of micro-electric vehicles.

Market research institute IHS Markit predicts that the price of cathode materials such as battery-grade cobalt, nickel sulfate, and lithium carbonate will continue to rise sharply, and it is expected that the price increase of lithium batteries may reach 13%-15%. The Euler brand has revealed that the production cost of the black cat and the white cat's three-electric system has reached about 55%-60% of the vehicle cost. The rise in battery prices has further increased the cost pressure on micro-electric vehicles.

Not only that, according to this year's subsidy policy, the subsidy for pure electric vehicles will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021, and rough calculations, the subsidy for pure electric vehicles with a range of 300km-400km will be reduced by more than 300 yuan, including A0-class models such as Euler White Cat, Black Cat, and Zero Run T03.

China Automobile Data expects the price forecast range of the integral trading year (January to September 2022) to be 1,000 yuan to 1,400 yuan / min; compared with last year's forecast and the actual average transaction price, it will continue to decline; while the enterprise level expects that the actual transaction price of integrals is likely to fall below 1,000 yuan, and Oula brand CEO Dong Yudong has said that the points transaction price has been lowered to 500 yuan -800 yuan at the beginning of 2022.

The more cars are sold, the more they lose money, becoming a hurdle that is difficult for micro-electric vehicles to bypass. At present, the price of A00-class new energy vehicles is less than 80,000 yuan, and the price of A0-class new energy vehicles is about 100,000 yuan, and its profits are quite meager, and Wuling Hongguang MINIEV, which has won the crown of new energy sales for many times, once reported that selling a car can only earn 89 yuan.

"Battery price increases and subsidy declines have brought about a cost gap of more than 7,000 yuan, coupled with the price of a single carbon credit from more than 2,000 to several hundred yuan, according to this selling method, a car will lose 17,000 yuan." Euler brand CEO Dong Yudong has said.

"Car companies can make corresponding adjustments to the differentiated brands, which can resolve the impact on the brand value of micro-electric vehicles such as low prices." Cui Dongshu said. "Although the price of points has declined this year, the contribution of micro-electric vehicles is not only new energy credits, but also contributes to the reduction of fuel consumption of enterprises, which has a huge stabilizing effect on the development of enterprises."

The market is under pressure, is the new energy car the future?

"For A00-level new energy micro-vehicles, the vast majority of customers are located in counties or villages and towns below the fourth- and fifth-tier cities, which are themselves very price-sensitive, and such vehicles rely on the low price of total cost of ownership (TCO) to maintain competitiveness, and the price increase will certainly have a considerable impact on the sales of these vehicles." Tian Yongqiu said.

At the same time, the "normalization" of low-speed electric vehicles has also made some progress. Last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised the "Technical Conditions for Pure Electric Passenger Vehicles" and added technical requirements for micro-low-speed pure electric passenger cars; the national mandatory standard "Technical Conditions for Four-Wheel Low-speed Electric Vehicles" also proposed that low-speed electric vehicles will be allowed to be used in specific areas. If low-speed electric vehicles regain their lives, they will inevitably crowd out the market for A00-class electric vehicles.

The industry believes that despite the current rapid growth in sales of micro-electric vehicles, the entire industry needs to be transformed. "It's time for the A00-class electric vehicle market to reinvent itself; we want China's auto industry to develop in a benign direction, that is, to achieve a rise at the waist." Dong Yudong believes that "even if we do A00-class cars, we must abandon the past low-price competition strategy and move closer to higher technical content." ”

From the perspective of the layout of car companies, zero-run cars announced that they have entered the 2.0 strategic stage, and Nezha Automobile will also enter the high-end electric vehicle market. Cui Dongshu expects that the growth rate of A00-class new energy vehicles will be about 60% in 2022, and the increase in the new energy vehicle market will be mainly reflected in the A-class car and B-class car market represented by BYD.

Ren Wanfu, an analyst in the automotive industry, believes that A00-level and A0-class new energy vehicle products will gradually develop from functional products to high-quality products, which is consistent with traditional fuel vehicles; the mainstream market for new energy vehicles will be concentrated in A-class and B-class in the future.

Tian Yongqiu has the same view, he believes that in the long run, when the income level of the county economy gradually increases, the replacement of the old scooter is gradually completed, the share of the car will gradually shrink, and the dumbbell-shaped market structure of the two large middles of the Chinese new energy vehicle market will gradually change to the olive-shaped structure of the two small middles.

However, in Cui Dongshu's view, A00-level and A0-class micro-electric vehicles still have a good development trend, on the one hand, the consumption of middle-aged and elderly consumer groups is relatively pragmatic, on the other hand, the consumption demand of the second car of young families is also miniaturized, from the perspective of micro-electric vehicles themselves, suitable for personal transportation travel, can effectively tap personal transportation needs; in addition, the current domestic micro-electric vehicles in the Southeast Asian market can compete with Japanese small fuel vehicles, or there is a possibility of substitution.

Cui Dongshu said, "The mainstream market for new energy vehicles should be a diversified market, and the A00-class fuel vehicle market that shrank in the past has regained its vitality under the trend of electrification." ”

Beijing News shell financial reporter Wang Linlin Editor Xu Chao Proofreader Lu Qian