The micro-electric car walks to the intersection

Regarding micro-electric vehicles, there was a view abroad that China's current popular models have pulled the world's automobile industry back to the original level for more than 100 years. This statement is exaggerated, but in some standards, the strategy of micro-electric vehicle selection does reflect the regression of automotive technology. For example, security. Last year, Japan's NHK TELEVISION station did a program that mainly disassembled Wuling Hiroko's MINI EV.

Japanese people are curious why some Japanese car brands have been so aware of "key search", made and Wuling Hongguang MINI EV almost the same size of the same positioning of the car, the price is close to 100,000 yuan, Wuling Hongguang MINI EV but sold to 30,000 or 40,000. After dismantling, they found that the Wuling Hongguang MINI EV simplified some of the equipment, such as the energy recovery part, and the motor water cooling was changed to air cooling.

The most interesting thing is that in some parts, Hongguang MINI EV does not use vehicle-grade products, but uses ordinary commercial products. In the program, the Japanese desperately praised the Chinese car company Wuling for having a unique sense of innovation in automobile research and development. But at the same time as the praise, at a deeper level, the program also reveals some ridicule of Chinese products - that is, the cost performance is excellent but the safety is insufficient.

Of course, security itself is a relative concept, facing different use cases, security requirements are different. The lower the speed and the simpler the traffic environment, the lower the safety configuration requirements of the car. The simplest example is that the speed limit of highways is generally 100 to 120km/h, while urban roads generally do not exceed 60km/h.

In fact, at the beginning, the birth of Hongguang MINI EV was because Wuling paid attention to the demand for low-speed scooters in the fourth- and fifth-tier markets. As a low-speed electric vehicle in the countryside and in the city, the Hongguang MINI EV has a certain guarantee for its safety. However, when more and more micro-electric vehicles drove on the high speed and caused tragic consequences, the industry began to be in an uproar, and the safety standard line of micro-electric vehicles gradually attracted the attention of all parties.

In June last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a draft for comment, which mentioned that in order to standardize the management of micro low-speed pure electric passenger cars, it is necessary to take into account micro low-speed pure electric passenger cars when revising GB/T 28382-2012, and clarify the basic safety technical requirements.

In April this year, the China Automobile Center issued the "Special Evaluation Regulations for Micro Electric Vehicles" (hereinafter referred to as the "Regulations") for pure electric passenger cars with a body length of less than 4 meters, mainly evaluating the protection effect of micro electric vehicles on people in the car during the collision process. From the state to the society, higher requirements have been put forward for this "little guy". Is it to increase costs and improve safety, or to stick to a cost-effective strategy? The micro-electric car has obviously come to a crossroads of fate.

China Automobile Center: Raise the standard, but it will not be killed by a pole

Zhang Yunlong, head of the C-NCAP special group of the China Automobile Center, said in an interview with the auto industry and economics that the healthy development of micro-electric vehicles cannot be just the needs of the market. "It is true that a large number of consumers in the market need such scooters, but we must also consider industrial safety and the pain points of users." As Zhang Yunlong worries, the micro-electric vehicle market is showing a picture of "wild and disorderly" growth.

According to the data of the Association, from January to March 2022, the wholesale sales of A00-class vehicles were 264,000 vehicles, accounting for 24.7% of the share of pure electric; the wholesale sales of A0-class were 33,000, accounting for 3.1% of the share of pure electric vehicles; the sum of the two was equivalent to 27.8% of the entire new energy vehicle market.

From January to March, micro-electric vehicles accounted for 27.8% of the new energy market (Source: China Association)

In 2021, the total sales volume of micro-electric vehicles will be 895,000 units. Li Jinyong, president of the New Energy Vehicle Branch of the Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, judged, "If the supply chain problem is not serious, the production and sales of micro-electric vehicles will reach 1.5 million to 2 million in 2022." "The domestic new energy market has set off a whirlwind of micro-vehicles, but there are not many public evaluations for micro-electric vehicles.

The country currently has crash tests in accordance with the GB/T31498-2015 standard, but it is more concerned about circuit safety issues related to electric shock and fire. In the public evaluation test, in addition to a few automotive media, there is no formal institution to give the evaluation of the micro-electric vehicle system.

Many people in the industry believe that in this case, allowing micro-electric vehicles to continue to expand may bury many problems. In fact, in terms of safety issues, micro-electric vehicles have been exposed to safety shortcomings many times. In September 2020, a micro-electric vehicle owner posted that his wife was involved in a car accident on a congested road, which became a "sandwich meat cake" for Geely and BMW, and the front and rear of the car were damaged and seriously broken.

In February 2021, there was a traffic accident in Qinhuangdao, Hebei Province, where a micro-electric vehicle collided with the Audi A4L, and due to the lack of airbags in the micro-electric vehicle and the lack of protection of the A-pillar, the occupants of the car unfortunately died. The occupants of the Audi A4L were injured only to varying degrees.

An independent brand engineer pointed out, "As a micro-electric vehicle for productivity tools, it is not surprising that there are no airbags, but out of the countryside, micro-electric vehicles must be equipped with airbags for the main and co-drivers, otherwise the owner of the car is equivalent to 'naked running'." He also added that many micro-electric vehicles are actually very poor in high-speed operation, and should be equipped with an ESP without weighting the body and not reducing the height.

In fact, with the increase of market doubts, some models are also trying to make changes, such as the Wuling Hongguang MINI EV at the beginning of the listing of the entire series did not match the airbags, but in the subsequent listing of the Macaron series began to be equipped with the main driving airbags. But this may not be enough, for the micro-electric vehicle market, vehicle safety supervision and quality inspection still need an authoritative body to strengthen.

The "Regulations" of the China Automobile Center are an important step. Zhang Yunlong said that the "Regulations" will play a role in supervising and guiding. "On the one hand, we publish the results for consumers' reference, and at the same time, we will also provide some information and data references to the government. We will also provide some data support to the corresponding departments to facilitate them to formulate some regulatory strategies. ”

Zhang Yunlong revealed that this year, the China Automobile Center will consider testing 4 to 6 micro-electric vehicles, for these models, they will pass some basic core indicators to promote micro-car manufacturers to solve the problem of safety risks at a relatively low cost. "Our principle is to gradually raise the standard and eventually align with conventional cars. Because the market also needs such a car, it cannot be killed by a pole. Zhang Yunlong said.

Expert: The promulgation of the Regulations is not an obstacle but a promotion

Some netizens believe that the introduction of the "Regulations" will usher in a "disaster" for micro-electric vehicles with insufficient safety. However, some experts in the automotive industry believe that the introduction of the "Regulations" will not suppress the development of micro-electric vehicles, but will have a role in promoting.

"The first batch of consumers to buy micro-electric vehicles, mainly cheap, there are still some consumers are still waiting, worried about unsafe." After the promulgation of the "Regulations", consumers can determine how much it will cost to buy micro-electric vehicles according to their actual needs. Therefore, this market will develop further. The expert also added that China's car ownership of thousands of people is still very low, and the expansion of micro-electric vehicles will not stop because of the introduction of the "Regulations", at least at this stage.

According to World Bank statistics, China's car ownership per thousand people in 2019 was 173, far lower than developed countries such as the United States, Australia, Italy, Canada, and Japan, and at a low level compared with Brazil, Mexico and Turkey, which had 350, 297 and 199 cars per 1,000 people, respectively. In fact, in the process of increasing the number of cars in many of the world's major automobile powers, micro-cars are a role that cannot be ignored.

In Germany, Volkswagen started with the "Beetle" mini-sedan, which lasted until 1974 and produced a total of 20.6 million units in the 26 years after the war; the 2CV model of "four wheels and one umbrella" designed by Citroën for French farmers continued to be produced for 49 years from 1939 to 1988; in Japan, the small K-Car is a god-like existence, running through the streets of Japan for more than 70 consecutive years.

However, China's micro-electric vehicles to undertake the mission of "national car", relying on the current development model may be difficult to sustain. First of all, at the safety level, the China Automobile Center has expressed its hope that the "Regulations" can prompt manufacturers to solve the risk problem at a relatively low cost. Secondly, in terms of revenue, micro-electric vehicles are also facing a crisis. Micro-electric vehicles can catch fire in China, and policy drive is an important factor.

In order to cope with the "double point policy", many car companies have also included the double points revenue into the planning at the beginning of the listing of mini cars. Nowadays, the expected price of new energy positive integrals has fallen off a cliff, and the points income of this "strategic loss" model of micro-electric vehicles has naturally been greatly reduced. At the same time, in the environment of lack of core and less electricity, in order to ensure profits, car companies are also tilting their resources to high-end models and models with higher profits.

Great Wall Euler has decided to temporarily discontinue micro-electric vehicles. Euler CEO Dong Yudong said bluntly: "In the early stage of industrial development, A00 is a very good product. However, as prices rise, costs rise, subsidies decline, and the trend of losses becomes more and more obvious. Changan also decided to suspend the order for the National Edition of the Ben E-Star, retaining only two high-priced models.

Changan Deep Blue has released a two-door pure electric car LUMIN, which is smaller and cheaper than the Changan Ben E-Star. But this is probably not a "longevity" model, Changan has said, "if you don't do A00 cars, you have to buy points." If it is not cost-effective, we will not do it; if it is still cost-effective, we will continue to do it, this is our logic. ”

There are more and more car companies that write "mini cars are difficult to do" on their faces, and fewer and fewer car companies that maintain enthusiasm for micro electric vehicles. Finding a long-term path has become the most urgent task facing micro-electric vehicles.

Choice of intersections

According to the report of Caitong Securities, according to the cost estimates disclosed by market parts suppliers, after excluding operating expenses, the profit margin of Wuling Hongguang MINI EV is about 2-3%.

In the case of low profits, to improve safety, car companies are bound to need to make adjustments to raise prices.

But are consumers willing to accept it?

Dong Yudong's answer was, "The smaller the size of the product, the less bargaining power." We do not believe that directly raising the price will definitely gain the recognition of users. "The implication is that many consumers buy micro-electric vehicles, although they buy personalities, but in fact, they buy it cheaply."

He said that once the price is raised, Chinese consumers may still favor "grocery shopping cars" with more space.

In fact, consumers' sensitivity to the price fluctuations of micro-electric vehicles has long been reflected in this year's price increase.

Entering 2022, the sales growth rate of micro-electric vehicles has slowed down, far lower than the growth rate of micro-electric vehicles in the same period of 2021 and the growth rate of the whole year of 2021. Qi Haiyan, president of Beijing Teyi Sunshine New Energy, said that this is not unrelated to the increase in the price of micro-electric vehicles. "Compared with other models, micro-electric vehicles face greater sales pressure after the price increase."

Therefore, it is not difficult to imagine that if it is wishful thinking alone, car companies will not easily change prices. Because giving up the price advantage is equivalent to giving up the share.

SAIC-GM-Wuling officially said that in fact, in the tide of price increases, each company is also trying to maintain a price advantage. Wuling's approach is to strive to improve the localization rate of suppliers, purchase bulk materials of raw materials, direct procurement of chips, and reduce logistics costs of capital public railway intermodal transportation.

An engineer at the joint venture believes that if it is not mandatory by the state to install safety devices, car companies may not easily make changes to the installation. "For cars, it is more difficult to meet the same safety standards, which will be immediately reflected in profits."

He also added that even if the test results of the China Automobile Center are released, consumers' requirements for models such as the Wuling Hongguang MINI EV will not become more demanding. "As a micro-electric vehicle, safety is inherently insufficient, too small energy absorption space, quality and high body determine its disadvantages in collision or high-speed cornering, and we should not require a low-cost mini car according to the requirements of A-class cars."

But then again, the evaluation of the China Automobile Center will definitely have a positive liquidation significance for the electric mini car market. If the safety level of a certain model is lost to the same level of products in the evaluation, from the perspective of the mechanical quality of the part, it is impossible to find a reason for "no installation configuration".

Manufacturers will always understand that cars that meet the minimum national standards are completely different from cars that meet consumer requirements. Just as passat's A-pillar was bent, market regulators would not punish it, but consumers would vote with real money.

The Passat is 25% biased on the front to test the outside view

In a word, "micro-electric vehicles" do need regular troops, and now in the mixed market, we should also get a look at the survival of the fittest; but after the reshuffle, how to ensure that the new "little guy" can still be afforded by the people, how to ensure that users have enough safety awareness at the same time, which requires relevant departments and car companies to jointly investigate.