Lead
Introduction
"In the next 3-5 years, 80% of Chinese brands will shut down and turn."
Author 丨 Yang Jing
Responsible editor 丨 Xu Jinkai
Editor 丨Zhu Jinbin
"It is not news that enterprises will shut down and turn around in three or five years, and eventually there will be only five or six Chinese car companies left."
The epidemic has accelerated the knockout rounds of Chinese car companies.
There are 143 car brands in the Chinese market, more than any other market in the world, so the survival of the fittest will accelerate in the future.
In the future, 80% of independent brands will shut down, stop, merge and turn, and 90% of the new car-making forces will be finished.
In the entire automotive market, the top two companies will face huge survival and development problems, and may not survive.
The automotive industry is forming three major car-making patterns represented by traditional car companies, new car-making forces and scientific and technological innovation companies.
I believe that in the next 10 years, world-class Chinese brands will be born. ”
In recent years, Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, who has devoted himself to big data research and analysis and sharing, often throws out surprising views and "golden sentences". Perhaps at the time, many people would still think that this was creating anxiety and panic, but the changes in the car market in recent years are gradually confirming the predictions at that time.
"It's not a judgment, it's a rule, and there's no need for so many brands in the world." In Zhu Huarong's view, the situation in the domestic automotive industry is grim, and independent brands have entered the point of direct competition with joint venture brands. Now with the addition of new energy vehicles, the competition in China's fuel vehicle market will be more intense.
Shut down, stop, merge, turn
Last year, the rise of independent brands in the field of fuel vehicles, new energy and high-end market segments has promoted the continuous growth of the share of independent brands. However, this year, the mainland's foreign investment in automobiles will be fully opened, and the market competition will inevitably become more intense. Enterprises with insufficient innovation ability and poor adaptability will face the risk of "out", and the process of mergers and acquisitions and the survival of the fittest may be accelerated.
"In the past year, there are 85 brands in the traditional fuel vehicle market, 34 brands with monthly sales of less than 1,000 units, and 9 brands have disappeared. I think in the next 3-5 years, 80% of Chinese brands will shut down and turn around. ”
This is not sensational, according to the data of the Association, there are 11 car companies that have not reported sales data in 2021, of which 9 are independent brands. From January to February this year, the number of car companies without sales data rose to 22, and in addition to the integration of FAW Mazda, Qoros, Borgward, Zotye, Hanteng and other independent brands were added.
The Matthew effect intensified, and the weak accelerated out. On the one hand, the internal competition of independent brands has intensified, weak brands have been bankrupted and reorganized, and strong brands have acquired production bases everywhere; on the other hand, foreign brands have continuously increased their equity in joint ventures, BMW, Volkswagen, and Kia have completed their dominance, and the remaining few are not far away.
Last year, with the joint efforts of all self-owned brand car companies, the total share of the passenger car market was further increased. According to the data released by the Association of Automobile Associations, it has reached 43.4%, and further squeezed German, Japanese and American brands. Among them, the performance of Geely, Great Wall, Changan, BYD, Chery and other car companies is particularly eye-catching.
Judging from the ranking of car companies, 2021 is almost a "nightmare" for joint venture brands. Looking at the year-on-year sales, from Volkswagen to GM, from Nissan to Honda, and even Mercedes-Benz, basically mainstream joint venture car companies, have ushered in a decline in sales. In particular, among the top 15 joint venture car companies, only Toyota has maintained the positive growth trend.
Traditional independent brands have invariably reaped the qualitative changes caused by quantitative changes, Xiaopeng, Weilai, ideal, as representatives of new forces to build cars, the annual delivery volume has also approached the 100,000 mark. Although the contribution to the overall share is relatively limited, it is full of exemplary significance in the wave of electrification transformation.
However, in the process, not everyone can laugh to the end. Cruel differentiation and elimination will also continue to occur in independent brands. Some people continue to rise, some people stagnate, some people fall into the abyss, and in 2022, which has arrived, this phenomenon will be exacerbated. The strong strengthen themselves, and the weak hide, which is the eternal law of survival.
Compared with the joint venture brand car companies that have been relatively slow to respond and miss the dividend, the rapid growth of the recent sales of independent brand car companies has largely relied on new energy vehicles. If in the past few decades, in the huge automotive industry, the identity of independent brands is more of a follower and learner, then with the passage of time, the present and the near future, they are the real rule-makers, grasp the absolute right to speak.
Chang'an's goal
The "14th Five-Year Plan" and 2030 Vision released by Changan Automobile show that the Group's target of 3.5 million vehicles will be achieved by 2025, of which 2.3 million will be owned brands. By 2030, the Group's sales target will reach 5 million vehicles, of which the sales volume of its own brands will reach 3 million vehicles, and the international market share will reach 30% in 2030.
This time, Zhu Huarong once again refined the goal of electrification. In the next five to ten years, Changan Automobile will focus on the new energy field to achieve double improvement in sales and efficiency. By 2025, Changan New Energy will target 1.05 million vehicles, accounting for 35% of the total; in 2030, the new energy sales target will reach 2.7 million vehicles, accounting for 60%.
The era of electrification is coming sooner than everyone expected. As early as 2017, Changan Automobile announced the official launch of the "Shangri-La Plan". According to the data, from 2019 to 2021, Changan New Energy's cumulative sales of 156,000 vehicles; in 2021, Changan New Energy's sales exceeded 100,000 vehicles, an increase of nearly 300% year-on-year.
For the 2022 target, it was originally scheduled to sell 160,000 vehicles per year, but in view of the fact that the internal has been optimistic about the development of Changan New Energy, it has been raised to 210,000 vehicles. After experiencing the arduous development in 2021, 2022 is the opening year of the new products listed on the market of Changan New Energy, and it is also the best time to seize the market at a high speed.
Changan New Energy did not put too much energy on micro-electric vehicles, and the strength of high sales this year and even in the future also comes from the new products of Changan New Energy's brand and the strength of both sides of Avita Technology.
Among them, the first strategic model C385 using a new dedicated electric vehicle platform under Changan New Energy's product sequence and the A158 and B369 models with the same platform will be listed in the second quarter of 2022. Avita Technologies will launch 11 new cars in the next 3 years, and the brand's first model, the Avita 11 (code name E11), has already been unveiled and will be officially delivered in the third quarter of this year.
From the perspective of product positioning, Benben products and A158 focus on the micro-electric market to achieve a breakthrough in industry occupancy; C385 and subsequent EPA1 platform products will focus on mainstream users in the market to achieve scale breakthroughs; Avita E11 and follow-up products mainly focus on high-end customers to achieve brand upwards. It can be seen that Changan Automobile already has a complete layout in the field of new energy.
As mentioned above, a very important reason behind the strong performance of mainstream independent brands is that their new energy models are performing better and better. "If new energy vehicles are compared to the first half, intelligent and connected vehicles are compared to the second half, China's automotive industry has achieved great results in the first half, but the decision is still in the second half."
At present, China's auto market has two camps of autonomy and joint ventures, traditional forces, new forces and ICT forces. Now everyone is starting to infiltrate each other and learn from each other. For the development of new energy vehicles brought about by the new round of new technologies, Zhu Huarong believes that this has brought new opportunities for high-end and internationalization to Chinese brands.
"This era is really very fair, as long as it is not user-centric, any brand will face obsolescence."
| Yang Jing |
No sleep at noon
Afternoon crash