Why is it difficult for major car companies to start the "stop burning" countdown?
If you want to buy a new car now, do you choose fuel vehicles or new energy? This problem has plagued many consumers.
After all, in the past year, the "withdrawal schedule of traditional fuel vehicles" has become a hot topic on the Internet. Many countries and regions around the world have disclosed the timetable for the ban on the sale of traditional fuel vehicles, among which some regions will ban the sale of fuel vehicles as soon as 2025, and the slowest will not be later than 2040.
As for the domestic market, although there is no official release of the "traditional fuel vehicle withdrawal timetable", some experts predict that the domestic suspension of traditional fuel vehicles will probably be around 2030, for which a number of independent brand car companies announced that they will "stop burning" as soon as possible.
Among them, the most "radical" BYD has officially announced on April 3 this year that it will stop the production of fuel vehicles. It is not difficult to see that the countdown race of domestic traditional fuel vehicles has begun.
「 01 」
In the era of new energy, rush to run or follow?
If it is said that when the domestic new energy vehicle field was just starting five or six years ago, some OEMs were still hesitant to get involved in the new energy track, perhaps it was forgivable. For new energy vehicles, there are still a small number of "radical" so-called car companies in the shallow taste.
Nowadays, new energy is the general trend of the development of the automotive industry. If domestic car companies do not have three or five new energy vehicles on sale, they dare not claim to be mainstream car brands, and not "electrocuting" means that they will face the risk of being abandoned by the times and industry changes.
"Even if it is a joint venture brand in China, at least one or two new energy vehicles will be launched to test the water." Xu Hao (pseudonym), an engineer at the Zhengzhou plant of an independent automobile brand, revealed that the current R&D investment of the main engine factory in the field of new energy is increasing year by year.
Great Wall Motors said it will invest 100 billion yuan in research and development funds in 5 years, focusing on the layout of new energy and intelligent fields; Changan Automobile announced that it will invest 80 billion yuan in research and development in key areas such as new energy by 2025; Geely also said that it will invest 3 billion yuan to focus on research and development of new energy.
As for the new forces of car manufacturing, at the beginning of the business, they directly determined new energy technology, skipping 130 years of fuel vehicle development history and experience accumulation. After all, compared with traditional fuel vehicles, the new power system composed of motors, electronic controls and batteries is quite a new technical starting point.
The reason why independent brands no longer have a skeptical attitude towards the development prospects of new energy vehicles is that behind the guidance of relevant national policies and regulations, as well as changes in consumer demand, "In short, the development of new energy vehicles will not turn back." Xu Hao said.
Although new energy subsidies are declining, 'carbon credit' is a topic that car companies cannot avoid. Xu Hao told me to understand the notes that car companies often need to buy points in order to avoid negative points affecting the production and listing of fuel vehicles.
Although the price of carbon credits has gradually declined this year (falling to 500 to 800 yuan per cent), it is still a big expense for OEMs. Therefore, domestic automakers have to produce new energy vehicles, only to cancel each other out for positive and negative points.
As for some brands that only produce new energy vehicles, they can theoretically earn income other than car sales by selling points. It is reported that in the first quarter of 2022 alone, Tesla's carbon credit revenue from sales to other automakers reached $679 million, an increase of 31% year-on-year.
At the same time, the "fuel vehicle withdrawal schedule" issued by some countries and regions and mainstream car companies has also caused some panic in the consumer market, forming a sense of urgency that fuel vehicles will be delisted soon, making consumers worry that the supporting facilities of fuel vehicles will be greatly reduced.
In order to make the new car that is purchased at a large price more useful for several years, some consumers will prefer to buy new energy vehicles. According to the data of the Association, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China reached 28.2% in March this year, a significant increase from 10.6% in March 2021.
"In other words, at present, for every four cars sold in China, one is a new energy source." Xu Hao said frankly that as consumers increasingly recognize new energy vehicles, new changes in terminal consumption choices are also constantly forcing car companies to launch new energy models that meet the needs of different users as soon as possible.
In his view, if it were not for the sharp rise in lithium prices and chip shortages, which led to the limited production capacity of some car companies, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales in the first quarter of this year may be much higher than the current data.
If this is the case, why don't car companies decisively "ban combustion"? Behind the cautious attitude of some independent brands towards "banning combustion", what kind of development resistance is hidden in the new energy automobile industry?
「 02 」
Once the "fire stops" the risk is greater
"At least in the short term, fuel vehicles are still the main force in the sales of most car companies."
Compared with the seemingly "radical" BYD, most domestic car companies are cautious about the attitude of "stopping combustion". Li Mai (pseudonym), a marketing manager of an independent automobile brand, said that the "fire stopping" of the main engine factory must think twice.
For most traditional car companies, once it is easy to "stop burning": the light will lose part of the market, and the heavy will lead to the main engine factory falling into an operational crisis. After all, among the independent traditional OEMs, BYD is only an exception.
"In 2019, BYD's new energy sales have surpassed fuel vehicles, and in February this year, a month before BYD announced the suspension of production of fuel vehicles, its fuel vehicle sales were less than 3,000 units, accounting for only 3% of all sales."
However, at present, most of the domestic traditional car companies, the monthly sales of fuel vehicles account for a very large proportion of all sales. According to the data of the Association, the sales volume of Changan and North-South Volkswagen ranked high in March, but the main sales models were all fuel vehicles.
Even if it is said that for every four cars sold in China, one is a new energy vehicle, which means that there are three more fuel vehicles. Li Mai revealed that at present, the proportion of monthly sales of fuel vehicles in most independent traditional car companies is basically more than 50%, and some are even higher.
"In March this year, the company's new energy vehicle sales accounted for no more than 30% of all sales." He told the understanding notes that if the car company is too "radical" to throw out the strategic decision of "stopping the combustion", it is often equivalent to a broken arm, and more than 50% of the sales of fuel vehicles will be lost.
Revenue is instantly "slashed", which is a serious consequence that any car company with a large proportion of fuel vehicle sales cannot afford. Although the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to expand, the status of fuel vehicles in the short term cannot be shaken.
"Just talking about problems such as battery life anxiety and charging difficulties, a large number of consumers have been dissuaded." Li Mai said that at present, the construction progress of large-scale domestic public charging stations and private slow charging piles is far lower than the growth rate of new energy vehicles. Among them, due to urban planning and old residential line design problems, obstacles to individual application for construction and installation are also common.
According to data from the China Business Intelligence Network, as of November 2021, nearly 1.3 million charging piles will be built with vehicles. According to CCTV, as of the end of March this year, the number of new energy vehicles in the mainland has reached 8.915 million, and most of the new energy owners are charging, using public charging piles, and the vehicle refueling experience is far less than that of traditional fuel vehicles.
"Therefore, a large number of consumers buying new cars will still prefer to experience better fuel vehicles." Li Mai made an analogy, even if the sale of fuel vehicles is stopped tomorrow, there will still be consumers lining up to buy fuel vehicles today, after all, fuel vehicles are more mature.
Even in recent years, there have been Sinopec, PetroChina, Shell and other petroleum energy companies announced their involvement in charging pile stations, but in the eyes of industry insiders, this is only to build charging piles in the original gas station network, which is the icing on the cake, no one dares to "break the arm" transformation, not to mention the traditional main engine plant.
Therefore, the vast majority of independent traditional car companies, joint venture car companies, and even overseas car manufacturers are very cautious in announcing the "stop burning", and more companies hope to gradually eliminate fuel vehicles through step-by-step, two-handed preparations.
「 03 」
The "stop combustion" of car companies involves system reconstruction
"Car companies want 'stud' new energy, in fact, it is not a simple thing."
In the eyes of many consumers, car companies force new energy vehicles purely because new energy vehicles are easy to build, pure electricity is nothing more than "amplified" toy racing, hybrid is only to add a motor to the engine, low technical barriers.
But Xu Hao said that it is far more difficult to build new energy vehicles than traditional fuel vehicles. After all, today's new energy vehicle field has passed the era of using fuel vehicles to "pull a skin" and install a three-electric system to sell well.
"All in new energy vehicles, the supply chain system and research and development system of car companies must be reconstructed, even if the BBA must be carefully weighed, who can bite their teeth and do this thing with all their might?" At present, for most OEMs, the most important upstream strategic resources for new energy vehicles are mainly lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, which constitute the cathode material of the battery cell.
In other words, car companies want to bet heavily, first of all, to solve the supply of lithium batteries, "whether it is independent brands or foreign car companies, most of them only focus on the design of battery Pack solutions, and the power battery part is purchased from third-party suppliers, and very few car companies build their own battery factories." ”
Therefore, the premise of car companies to develop new energy vehicles is the supply and price of batteries and packs, and cannot be stuck by limited upstream battery suppliers. Xu Hao stressed that the supply of raw materials was tight last year, and the supply of batteries was once in short supply, which affected the delivery progress of many car companies.
Therefore, many smaller car companies can only send people to squat power battery suppliers and factories in order to seize the battery cell production capacity at the first time. Some car companies that are "frustrated" in the battery supply chain have even begun to "encircle" second-line battery cell manufacturers in order to reduce supply risks.
In addition, unlike traditional fuel vehicles, which are good cars as long as they are safe, comfortable and fuel-efficient, today's high-end consumers have put forward higher consumer demand for new energy vehicles.
"In addition to fighting in terms of safety and mileage, car companies must also fight for intelligent and networked configurations." Xu Hao stressed that more and more car companies nowadays regard the smart cockpit as a new energy vehicle, especially the mainstream configuration of medium and high-end models.
Therefore, under the tide of intelligent and networked vehicles, car companies also need to improve their research and development capabilities and create a more efficient research and development system, so as to enhance product competitiveness and avoid falling into the strange circle of blind competition and endurance of new energy vehicles.
"As for the sales and after-sales network, once the car company All in new energy, it must be fully adjusted." Xu Hao pointed out that at present, many automobile brands have begun to transform the pre-sales and after-sales networks in order to prepare for the new energy era while taking into account the sales of fuel vehicles.
However, whether it is the upstream supply chain, research and development system, or pre-sales and after-sales network, the transformation cannot be completed overnight. It can be seen that rushing to "cut off the flame" will not become the choice of most OEMs.