Pre-editor: In the past 10 years, the mainland's new energy automobile industry has developed rapidly, achieving a gorgeous transformation from small to large and from weak to strong; in the past 10 years, mainland new energy vehicles have gradually got rid of policy dependence and continued to move in the direction of marketization, and the proportion of private consumption has continued to rise. This is inseparable from the continuous progress of power battery technology, but also inseparable from the gradual improvement of charging infrastructure. In the past 10 years, as the "two wings" of new energy vehicles, the power battery and charging industry have soared to escort the rapid development of new energy vehicles.
Power battery: ten years of breakthrough achievements
As an important part of the new energy automobile industry chain, the mainland power battery industry has achieved rapid development in the past 10 years, new technologies emerge in an endless stream, all the way from following to surpassing, forming a unique advantage, providing a driving force for the rapid development of the mainland new energy automobile industry, driving the new energy automobile industry all the way forward, and leading the development of the global new energy automobile industry.
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Independent innovation
The technical level has improved rapidly
Ma Xiaoli, deputy secretary-general of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance (hereinafter referred to as the "Battery Alliance"), said in an interview with The China Automotive News that with the rapid development of the mainland new energy automobile industry, the power battery industry has also made rapid progress. "In 2012, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in the mainland were only more than 10,000, and by the end of last year, it exceeded 3 million.
At present, the number of new energy vehicles in the mainland (the data of the Ministry of Public Security) has approached 8 million. Such a rapid growth rate is rare in other emerging industries. Ma Xiaoli stressed that with the rapid development of the new energy automobile industry in the mainland, the power battery, as a core component, has also followed suit to achieve a continuous increase in market size. According to the statistics of the Battery Alliance, in 2013, the loading volume of continental power batteries was only 0.7GWh, and by the end of last year, this data had reached 154.5GWh, an increase of 142.8% year-on-year. This growth rate not only realizes the rapid development of the power battery industry, but also provides support for the sustainable development of the new energy automobile industry.
At the same time, the continental power battery industry relies on the scale advantage of loading volume, and gradually has a place in the global power battery industry. Dong Yang, former executive vice president and secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, stressed that 10 years ago, the mainland power battery industry was still in a backward position, striving to catch up with the world's advanced level, after the rapid development of the past 10, the mainland power battery industry has reached the world-class level.
In terms of traditional automotive core components, the mainland has always been in the situation of "stuck neck" due to backward technology, especially core components such as engines and transmissions have long relied on imports. However, in the field of new energy vehicles, as the core components of the power battery, after 10 years of rapid development, has achieved independence, not only the emergence of such a global leading enterprise as the Ningde era, the mainland's power battery, motor and other core components of new energy vehicles are also exported to many countries, which strongly supports the global development of the mainland new energy automobile industry.
Ma Xiaoli believes that strong autonomy is a major feature of the continental power battery industry. "Consistent with the development of the new energy automobile industry, the autonomy of the mainland power battery industry is also relatively strong. Not only has the new energy vehicle technology achieved an international leading edge, but the power battery has also achieved gratifying results. Ma Xiaoli stressed that on the basis of scale advantages, the diversity of related products is also more prominent, the product coverage is very wide, the adaptability is also very strong, and the rich power battery products fully meet the application of various models. In this process, the innovation of the power battery industry is very strong, reflected in technology, structure, key materials and other aspects.
Not only has the core characteristics of power batteries such as safety, life, and energy density achieved major breakthroughs, but also significant progress has been made in terms of integration efficiency and integration. "The innovation of the power battery industry in the past 10 years is rare in any other industry." Ma Xiaoli believes that some industries may only follow the world-class level, but the mainland power battery industry has achieved leadership. Dong Yang also said that in the past 10 years, the mainland's innovation in power battery materials and structures has rapidly improved the level of industrial technology, which is unprecedented in other countries around the world.
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Policy support
Strengthen confidence in the development of the industry
Summarizing the reasons for the rapid development of the mainland power battery industry in the past 10 years, Ma Xiaoli believes that it is inseparable from the mainland's firm determination to develop the industry. Under the strong guidance of the policy, the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain work together to promote the rapid development of the industry. "After the state clarified the strategic positioning of new energy vehicles, the power battery industry has received attention from all parties. In particular, facing the goal of "double carbon", it has strengthened the determination of the development of electrification in the mainland and laid the foundation for the development of power batteries. Ma Xiaoli said, "Electrification is not only the development direction of the automotive industry, but also an important direction for the strategic transformation of energy in the future." "He stressed that this strategic height makes all parties full of confidence in the development of the power battery industry and dares to increase research and development and investment." A strong determination to develop is very important for an emerging industry. Ma Xiaoli said.
While clarifying the industrial positioning and development direction, the mainland has implemented unprecedented financial support for new energy vehicles, and the power battery industry has become the biggest beneficiary in this process. "The state's financial support for the new energy automobile industry far exceeds that of other industries, and hundreds of billions of dollars of funds provide the possibility for new technologies and new products to be quickly introduced to the market, and also promote the innovative development of new technologies." Ma Xiaoli believes that compared with other industries such as home appliances, new energy vehicles are the industries that have received the most financial support in recent years, especially in the early stage of the market promotion of new technologies and new products, and financial support has played an important role in promoting. Thanks to this, new energy vehicles have the possibility of large-scale development, and then promote the further improvement of technology in practical applications.
In the past 10 years, although the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles has also caused controversy, from today's results, the support of the subsidy policy has finally promoted the rapid progress of various core technologies, including power batteries, realized the improvement of core indicators such as energy density and safety of power batteries, and helped the new energy automobile industry to gradually move towards the market.
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Enhance competitiveness in climbing over obstacles
"In the past 10 years, although the mainland power battery industry has made remarkable achievements, it has also experienced many tribulations." Ma Xiao used "climbing over the hill" to describe the development of the mainland power battery industry in the past 10 years. From the confusion and confusion of the unclear technical direction at the beginning, to the difficulty of achieving cost reduction and efficiency improvement later, to the continuous rise in raw material prices in the past two years, the power battery industry has moved forward in the process of solving various problems in the past 10 years.
First of all, in the early stage of industrial development, there is a lot of debate about the technical direction of power batteries inside and outside the industry. Lithium iron phosphate? Or lithium titanate? No one can make up their minds, even the management department is more confused, and the whole industry can only continue to explore in the development. Of course, in the process of industrial development, it is inevitable that some technologies will be eliminated, and there will be companies that will pay a heavy price in trial and error, but this is also a process that any emerging industry will inevitably go through.
The second is cost reduction pressure. Ma Xiaoli said that when the mainland first promoted new energy vehicles, the cost of related models was very high, 1 times that of fuel vehicles in the same period, and the high cost made it difficult to promote the marketization of products. Among them, the most important cost pressure comes from the power battery. Although there is subsidy support, the overall pressure on the industry is still very large. "After years of development, the cost of power batteries has dropped from the initial 2 to 3 yuan / Wh to 0.3 ~ 0.4 yuan / Wh last year, which is very difficult." Ma Xiaoli said.
More critically, in the process of cost reduction, the core technology of the power battery continues to improve, taking the energy density as an example, the statistics of the Battery Alliance show that as of the beginning of 2022, the specific energy of the ternary battery cell has increased from 150Wh/kg in 2012 to nearly 300Wh/kg, and the energy density of the system product is up to 206Wh/kg; the specific energy of the lithium iron phosphate battery cell has increased from 100Wh/kg in 2012 to 190Wh/kg. The system energy density is up to 167.4Wh/kg, which basically meets the development needs of new energy vehicles. Taking ternary batteries as an example, in 2017, the average energy density of the industry can reach about 140Wh/kg, and last year, the industry's average has jumped to 200Wh/kg. "This technological progress is far faster than the rest of the world." Ma Xiaoli said.
Third, at the moment of rapid industrial development, it has experienced a sharp rise in raw material prices, which has poured cold water on the development of the industry. In the past year, the price of raw materials has risen more than several times or even more than ten times, which has brought great challenges to the development of the industry. Power battery raw materials use a global procurement mechanism, rising prices, unstable resource supply and other serious constraints on the development of the industry.
Moreover, the power battery industry is suffering from the upward pressure of upstream raw material prices, but also facing the pressure from the automobile (car company) procurement price decline, "the material is expensive, the car does not increase the price, the most difficult in the middle is the battery cell enterprise." "In the past 10 years, the terminal price of new energy vehicles has been in a declining range, and gradually developed to a level that is basically the same as that of fuel vehicles, which is largely due to the decline in the cost of power batteries." Even if the price of raw materials continued to rise last year, the purchase price of the battery cell failed to follow the market, which put the power battery industry and enterprises under great pressure.
Dong Yang also told reporters that while the continental power battery has global competitiveness, it is also facing the challenge of globalization. This challenge comes not only from the continuous rise in raw material prices and tight supply under the global supply chain system, but also from new pressures such as global green manufacturing. Especially under the requirements of global low-carbon development, the high carbon emissions generated by the traditional manufacturing methods of the power battery industry have brought great pressure to the development of the power battery industry. However, Dong Yang believes that it is not all without countermeasures. "China's innovative large-scale production can effectively reduce carbon emissions in the battery manufacturing process." He stressed that after 10 years of technology accumulation, the mainland power battery industry has greatly improved in terms of technical level and comprehensive strength, which can escort the sustainable and healthy development of the mainland new energy automobile industry.
Infrastructure: Coordinated development with new energy vehicles
Charging infrastructure is an important guarantee for the green travel of new energy vehicle users and an important support for promoting the rapid development of the new energy automobile industry. In the past 10 years, the mainland's charging infrastructure has been laid out in an orderly manner, which has effectively supported the promotion and popularization of new energy vehicles and built a good environment for the use of new energy vehicles.
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Moderately ahead of schedule
Policy drives the industry to get started
Tong Zongqi, director of the Information Department of the China Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Alliance (hereinafter referred to as the "Charging Alliance"), believes that in the past 10 years, the mainland's charging and replacing infrastructure has experienced two stages of development. From 2015 to 2020, mainly relying on policy support, the industry as a whole is in the process of "staking land". Relying on policy support, all parties have seized superior resources and built infrastructure networks. B-end charging and swapping infrastructure has developed rapidly at this stage; after 2020, the charging and swapping infrastructure industry has entered a new stage of market-oriented development.
Tong Zongqi said that in the early days, most of the charging and replacing infrastructure was dedicated to providing services for public transportation such as buses, sanitation vehicles, and taxis, and most of them were built in relatively closed depots, and the degree of market-oriented operation was very low. For example, in Beijing, some bus charging and replacing power stations have implemented strict closed management and prohibited external vehicles from entering. At that time, it became common for private car owners to find charging piles. Tong Zongqi said that at this stage, the new energy vehicle market is not large, the utilization rate of charging and replacing infrastructure is not high, and the profitability is also poor, which is largely dependent on policy support in construction.
Wang Yang, co-founder and president of Energy Chain, also told reporters that the dependence of charging infrastructure construction at this stage on policies is very strong. At the same time, because the charging and replacing infrastructure at that time mainly provided B-end customers, some failed to consider the problem of market-oriented operation in the construction process, which also led to the frequent appearance of "zombie piles" later.
Tong Zongqi told reporters that moderate advance is the construction policy of the charging and replacing industry. In the early stage of the development of the mainland new energy automobile industry, the dispute over the pile of "chicken or egg first" lasted for a long time, and the "car repair" or "pile repair" also swayed for a long time. However, compared with the whole vehicle, the market-oriented development of charging infrastructure is later, and the implementation of the charging infrastructure subsidy policy is also later.
Tong Zongqi said that in the process of policy to promote the development of charging and replacing infrastructure, there have also been problems such as "fraudulent compensation". As with the problem of "cheating" for new energy vehicles, some charging infrastructure is only built to get subsidies and does not actually operate. With the development and management level of the new energy automobile industry, the policy support direction of new energy vehicles and charging and replacing infrastructure is also constantly adjusting. After entering the stage of market-oriented development, the "operation and maintenance, use" of compensation has become the main theme of the policy, and this change not only eliminates the problems of "fraudulent compensation", but also promotes the market-oriented development of the charging and replacing infrastructure industry.
It should be affirmed that although the early construction of charging and replacing infrastructure has a strong dependence on policies, and most of them are carried out in the B-end field, it has also opened the history of charging and replacing infrastructure from scratch. To some extent, it is the construction and application of B-end charging and replacing infrastructure that allows all parties to see the market prospects of charging and replacing infrastructure, and only then has it begun to enter the market, thus opening up the market-oriented development of this industry.
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New energy vehicles
Drive the rapid development of charging and replacing
After 2020, especially in 2021, with the rapid opening of the C-end market for new energy vehicles, the construction of charging infrastructure has also entered a new stage of market-oriented development. "The active private consumers have promoted the market-oriented development of the charging and swapping infrastructure industry." Tong Zongqi pointed out that with the increase in the ownership of new energy vehicles in the mainland, especially the increase in the proportion of private consumption, the charging and replacing infrastructure has entered a period of rapid development, and even in some third- and fourth-tier cities, the construction of charging and replacing infrastructure is also accelerating.
"Charging and replacing infrastructure ushered in market-oriented development in the opening year of the '14th Five-Year Plan'." Tong Zongqi said that not only breaking the geographical restrictions of first-tier cities, moving towards a broader third- and fourth-tier cities, and even rural markets, but also various business models are not endless, and different forms of energy replenishment such as charging and power exchange have also opened up the exploration of market-oriented operations. He believes that the construction of charging and replacing infrastructure at this stage has entered the stage of dual drive of policy and market.
Tong Zongqi pointed out that the construction of charging and replacing infrastructure has always been consistent with the development rhythm of new energy vehicles, which is because charging and replacing infrastructure is the guarantee for the application of new energy vehicles in the market, and the rapid development of new energy vehicles has also promoted the increase in demand for charging and replacing infrastructure. "The activity of C-end users has made the charging and swapping infrastructure industry begin to develop in a service-oriented market, and refined services have become the focus of charging and swapping infrastructure operation and maintenance." Tong Zongqi stressed that it is thanks to the refined service that the convenience of charging has been improved, and it has also brought profits to operators. Wang Yang told reporters that in the stage of market-oriented development, who can provide better charging services will be able to obtain better operational results.
Wang Yang judged that by 2030, the number of charging piles on the mainland will reach 50 million. According to the construction cost of an average DC charging pile of about 120,000 yuan, in the next 8 to 10 years, there will be trillions of yuan of funds invested in the field of charging infrastructure.
"The charging pile industry is a systematic, large and very fragmented industry. It may involve thousands of operating entities, hundreds of apps, or mini programs. After so much money has been invested, how to operate efficiently and improve the convenience of charging is an important issue. Wang Yang stressed that charging infrastructure has very broad prospects for development, and in the future market-oriented development process, service will be an important determinant of the development of this industry. The improvement of the quality of charging and replacing services not only determines the survival of operators, but also determines the market promotion process of new energy vehicles to a certain extent.
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Local, industry
Cooperate to promote industrial development
Tong Zongqi stressed that the characteristics of the regional development of charging and replacing infrastructure are very strong. The southeast coast, economically developed areas, and first- and second-tier large and medium-sized cities developed relatively early and also developed relatively quickly; in the northeast and northwest, economically underdeveloped areas and third- and fourth-tier small cities started late. At the same time, different traffic conditions and land resource structures in different regions also determine the regional characteristics of charging and replacing infrastructure construction. The characteristics of regionalization and decentralization determine the future development trend and characteristics of the charging and replacing infrastructure industry.
Wang Yang said that the charging infrastructure industry is very fragmented, it is difficult to have a single or unified market, a city, region may have hundreds of operating entities, and the scale of each charging station may not be very large.
It is precisely because of this regional characteristic that the development of charging and replacing infrastructure is more dependent on policies, and if there is no policy support, it is difficult for this industry to fully achieve market-oriented development. "The construction of charging infrastructure must first be supported by land resources, which needs to be based on urban planning, which is difficult to achieve without policy support." Wang Yang said.
Tong Zongqi also stressed that in the future development of charging and replacing infrastructure, continuous support from policies is needed, especially local governments need to have clear local development plans in order to make charging and replacing infrastructure develop better. "Taking the rapidly advancing power exchange pilot as an example, it is precisely because of the clear support of local governments and local policies that it can be promoted, and it is difficult to achieve rapid industrial development only by relying on market-oriented enterprise operations."
Wang Yang believes that in the future, the development of charging infrastructure requires all parties to play their respective roles, play their respective roles, and form a synergy in order to better promote the development of the industry. Management departments, especially local governments, should do a good job in top-level design, and all parties should use their respective advantages to "enter" under the guidance of top-level design to jointly promote the construction and layout of charging and replacing infrastructure.
Text: Wang Jinyu Editor: Sun Huanyu Layout: Wang Kun