Author | Jia Weizhong
Source | Car selection network
——Analysis of the passenger car market economy index in the first quarter of 2022
In the first quarter, the growth rate of passenger cars showed a downward inflection point. At the same time, the share of new energy vehicles has risen sharply. The top ten sales rankings of new energy vehicles have quietly changed, indicating that the field may undergo a drastic reshuffle this year.
The biggest lack of market momentum
The epidemic has led to a weak demand for the mid-range car market of 90,000-190,000 yuan, which will affect the profits of some car companies this year or will decline.
On April 18, the National Bureau of Statistics released: "The gross domestic product in the first quarter 270178 billion yuan, calculated at constant prices, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year." "Reflected in the automobile market, the growth rate of the passenger car market turned from positive to negative in March, and the market showed a downward inflection point. At the same time, the growth of mid-range car sales in the first quarter was almost stagnant, indicating that the car market is facing great challenges this year.
According to the Association of Passenger Vehicles, cumulative sales of passenger cars in the first quarter were 5.414 million units, up 8.3% year-on-year. Among them, passenger car sales in March were 1.814 million units, an increase of -1.6% year-on-year, the only month with negative sales growth in the first quarter.
Statistical analysis from Beijing Zhengzheng Dacheng shows that the growth rate of automobile consumption capacity in the first quarter is relatively high, and the increase in consumption level is limited. Statistics show that in the first quarter of 2022, the cumulative market size of passenger cars in the country was 1,011.7 billion yuan, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year; the regular passenger car market size index (cumulative) was 721.3 points, up 56.4 points from the same period last year, indicating that consumption capacity rose. In the first quarter, the average sales price (cumulative) of the passenger car market reached 187,000 yuan, an increase of 0.1 million yuan over the same period last year; the cumulative price index of regular passenger cars was 129.4 points, up 0.4 points from the same period last year, indicating a slight increase in consumption levels.
The main momentum driving the expansion of the passenger car market in the first quarter and the increase in the average price of market sales came from the high-end market of more than 200,000 yuan and the demand for cars in the low-end market below 80,000 yuan. According to statistics, high-end car sales in the first quarter reached 2.050 million units, an increase of 13.6% year-on-year; low-end car sales were 673,000 units, an increase of 16.6% year-on-year.
In contrast, although mid-range car sales reached 2.691 million units in the first quarter, the year-on-year increase was only 2.8%, an increase of -9.3% compared with the same period in 2019, indicating that there is still a big gap between the spending power of the mid-range car buyer group and before the epidemic. Judging from the data of the past five years, this part of the group accounts for more than 50%, which is the backbone of passenger car consumption, and the lack of mid-range consumption will lead to further intensification of market competition and the decline in the profitability of some car companies.
The share of Chinese brands exceeded that in 2018
Although passenger car sales fell in March and mid-range car growth in the first quarter was less than expected, the overall sales volume of Chinese brands was close to the level of 2018, and the market share exceeded the level of 2018.
Statistics show that the cumulative sales of Chinese brand passenger cars in the first quarter were 2.49 million units, an increase of 20.9% year-on-year, and the gap narrowed to less than 200,000 units in 2018 (2.666 million units), the highest sales point in the same period in the past five years. In the first quarter, the market share of Chinese brand passenger cars reached 46.0%, up 1.5 percentage points from the same period in 2018 (44.5% share), the highest value in the past five years.
At the same time, the overall decline in German cars in the first quarter was large. According to statistics, the cumulative sales of German cars in the first quarter were 1.074 million units, an increase of -6.6% year-on-year. The German car market share in the first quarter was 19.8%, down 1.5 percentage points compared with the same period in 2018, which is the first time in the past five years that the Share of German cars has fallen below 20%.
From the supply side, the sales volume of German cars in the first quarter fluctuated greatly, which was related to the suspension of work and production of some brands affected by the epidemic. Chinese brands seized the opportunity to seize most of the market, so there was a double growth in sales and share.
From the demand side, an important factor driving the growth of Chinese brand passenger car sales is the significant increase in the market demand for new energy vehicles.
The new energy automobile industry may be violently reshuffled
Last year, the demand for new energy vehicles exploded, attracting Chinese and foreign car companies to increase investment. In the first quarter, the competition between Chinese and foreign brands in this field was extremely fierce. Judging from the changes in the ranking of the top ten sales of new energy vehicles, this year's market segment may undergo a drastic reshuffle.
Sales of new energy vehicles in the first quarter continued the momentum of last year's high growth. According to data from the Association, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in the first quarter were 1.1897 million units, an increase of 145.5% year-on-year. The market share of new energy vehicles reached 21.97%, up 12 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, the sales volume of New Energy Vehicles of Chinese brands was 912,500 units, an increase of 152.52% year-on-year, and the number of new energy vehicles of Foreign brands was 277,300 units, an increase of 116.98% year-on-year.
From the comparison of Chinese and foreign brand new energy vehicles, although foreign brands started late, and are slightly slower than Chinese brands in terms of chip shortage and response speed to the epidemic, the sales growth rate is close to Chinese brands, and there is a possibility that the growth rate will exceed that of Chinese brands in the future. From the perspective of market concentration, among the top ten new energy vehicle sales, Chinese brands occupy nine seats, with cumulative sales of 678,700 vehicles, and the market share reaches 57.0%, and these local enterprises are the main competitors competing with foreign brands.
It is worth noting that while the new energy vehicle market is expanding rapidly, the ranking of the top ten sales volume has quietly changed. On the one hand, BYD's sales increased by 5 times year-on-year to win the first quarter of new energy vehicle sales championship, last year's Hongguang MINI to win the championship of SAIC-GM-Wuling showed fatigue, this year's growth rate is much lower than the industry average, ranking slipped to the third place; on the other hand, Geely new energy vehicles in the first quarter of the year-on-year increase of more than 5 times, from last year's 14th to 5th place. On the contrary, THEO Automobile, once the leader of the "new force" of car manufacturing, fell from 6th to 13th.
The above changes reflect the growing demand for smart electric vehicles, making micro-electric vehicles that are only a means of transportation less attractive. From the perspective of competition, if Chinese brand new energy manufacturers fall out of the top ten, it means that they will be gradually marginalized in market competition.
Overall, since the beginning of this year, the external Russian-Ukrainian conflict has intensified the risk of global inflation, and the domestic epidemic scatter-prone economy is facing huge downward pressure. Reflected in the passenger car market, the mid-end market consumption compared with the pre-epidemic huge contraction, which means that most corporate profits will shrink, while raw material prices soaring, superimposed subsidies decline, fuel vehicle market demand shrinkage and other adverse factors, and the past fuel vehicle market expansion led to a mixture of fish and dragons, this year's new energy vehicle industry in the expansion of the violent reshuffle is a high probability event.
(Image source: Internet)