Author | Jia Weizhong
Source | Car selection network
——Analysis of the car market economy index in the first quarter of 2022
Years ago, Chinese brand cars collapsed across the board, barely holding 20% of the market share. Last year, the share of local cars exceeded 30% in one fell swoop, and the share climbed to 35% in the first quarter of this year, surpassing German cars to rank first, but the hidden problems behind them are worrying.
Low-end cars soared and high-end cars slowed down
Although the first quarter of the car increased year-on-year, but the low-end car below 100,000 yuan is the main force of the rise, more than 220,000 yuan of high-end cars, 110,000 to 210,000 yuan of mid-range car micro-growth situation is worthy of attention.
According to the data of the Association, the cumulative sales of cars in the first quarter were 2.581 million units, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year. Correspondingly, the consumption capacity of cars increased in the first quarter, but the consumption level declined.
Statistical analysis from Beijing Regular Dacheng shows that the cumulative market size of the national car in the first quarter of 2022 was 459.13 billion yuan, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year; the regular car market size index (cumulative) was 1607.3 points, up 82.4 points from the same period last year, indicating a slight increase in spending power. In the first quarter, the average sales price (cumulative) of the car market reached 178,000 yuan, down 0.5 million yuan from the same period last year; the cumulative price index of regular cars was 119.7 points, down 3.7 points from the same period last year, indicating a decline in consumption levels.
The reason for the expansion of the car market in the first quarter is that the demand of the three major market segments is better than that of the same period last year. According to statistics, high-end car sales in the first quarter were 753,000 units, an increase of 4.9% year-on-year; mid-range car sales were 1.149 million units, an increase of 5.0% year-on-year; and low-end car sales were 679,000 units, an increase of 20.8% year-on-year.
Overall, the demand for low-end cars is extremely strong, and while pulling down the average sales price of the market, it indicates that there is a certain growth potential for low-end car purchase demand this year. On the contrary, the sales of mid-to-high-end cars, which account for 73.7%, only achieved slight growth in the first quarter, which may mean that the performance of mid-to-high-end cars this year is not optimistic.
The expansion of local cars and foreign brands shrank
In the first quarter, although the sales of high-end cars accounting for more than 70% were not ideal, the sales and share of Chinese brand cars rose sharply.
According to statistics, the cumulative sales of Chinese brand cars in the first quarter were 925,000 units, not only a year-on-year increase of 43.7%, but also a market share soared to 35.8%, up 8.7 percentage points year-on-year, even compared with the same period in 2019 and 2018 before the epidemic, the share also rose by 15 percentage points.
At the same time as the share of local cars expanded, the foreign brand car market shrank rapidly, and the largest decline was in German cars. According to statistics, the sales volume of German cars in the first quarter was 648,000 units, an increase of -13.4% year-on-year; the sales of Japanese cars were 649,000 units, an increase of 7.3% year-on-year.
Looking at the sales trend of different countries in the past five years, the sales volume of German cars in the first quarter of 2018 reached 1.01 million units, with a share of 35.3%, ranking first with an absolute leading edge. In the past five years, as the number of German SUVs has increased, a part of the German sedan market has been diverted. Especially since 2020, due to factors such as chip shortage and outbreak of the epidemic, some German brands have reduced the proportion of low-end cars, so the share of German cars in the first quarter of this year has dropped to 25.1%, which is comparable to Japanese cars. At the same time, Chinese brand cars are seizing the market.
There are hidden concerns behind the high growth of local cars
In the first quarter, although the sales of Chinese brand cars were close to one million units, and the share exceeded that of German cars, the problem of structural imbalance was still worrying.
In the past five years, the process of sales of German cars and Chinese brand cars has been a process of giving up and occupying the low-end market.
On the one hand, the demand for scooters from low-end consumer groups has driven a surge in sales of entry-level new energy vehicles. Statistics show that in the first quarter, the cumulative sales of A00-class electric vehicles were 277,000 units, up 67.3% year-on-year. On the other hand, the important area of Chinese brand cars is still the A-class car market. Cumulative sales of local A-class cars in the first quarter were 462,000 units, up 28.7% year-on-year.
In terms of increment, Chinese brand A00-class vehicles and A-class vehicles increased by 111,000 and 103,000 units respectively in the first quarter, accounting for 76.3% of the total growth of local cars in the first quarter. In terms of proportion, A00-class and A-class cars account for 80% of the total number of Chinese brand cars. In short, the largest growth of Chinese brand cars is concentrated in the low-end market, and it is still difficult for local high-end cars to open up the situation in the B-level or above market.
Overall, in the context of the inflection point of the decline in the growth rate of the passenger car market in the first quarter, the sales volume and share of Chinese brand cars have risen sharply, which is both accidental and inevitable. By chance, some foreign brands have faced a shortage of chips and a short suspension of work and production due to the impact of the epidemic; the inevitable situation is that Chinese brands have seized the new opportunity of increasing demand for scooters in the low-end market.
At the same time, the old problem of upward obstruction of Chinese brand cars has not been effectively solved, and in this case, new problems in local low-end car rolls have emerged. The outstanding performance is that the once blockbuster Hongguang MINI market has been diverted by other micro-cars, resulting in a sharp decline in growth rate. Therefore, it is gratifying that the Chinese brand sedan surpassed the German car in the first quarter to achieve the position of sales champion, but it is also very important to gradually break through to the mid-to-high-end market and then achieve sustainable growth in profits.
(Image source: Internet)