Since March, due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, many domestic vehicle and parts companies have stopped production and reduced production, coupled with the impact of "lack of core" that has not been alleviated, and the price of raw materials has continued to rise sharply, etc., the domestic passenger car market in March has obviously fallen short of expectations, and to a certain extent, dragged down sales in the first quarter. It is gratifying that new energy passenger vehicles continue to grow high, of which the performance of traditional brand new energy is still stable, maintaining a market share of nearly 60% in the first quarter.
Among the traditional brand new energy, autonomy still occupies an absolute advantage, and BYD, which frequently "brushes the screen", continues to widen the distance with competitors and stabilize the leading edge. For the weakness of joint ventures in the field of new energy, CITIC Securities research report believes that its product definition capabilities have path dependence and inertial thinking, thus showing "overconfidence" on the pricing side. As the joint venture accelerates the pace of electrification and continues to enrich the product lineup, it is undoubtedly worth paying attention to whether it can achieve a reversal or change in the future.
Following Changchun, Shanghai and other places, Guangzhou has also stopped production of car companies. On April 21, the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology revealed at an online media briefing that due to the impact of the spread of the epidemic in Hong Kong and some cities in the mainland, the major vehicle manufacturers such as Guangqi Honda, GAC Toyota, and Dongfeng Nissan have stopped production of some production lines and semi-production...
Since March, due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, many domestic vehicle and parts companies have stopped production and reduced production, coupled with the impact of "lack of core" that has not been alleviated, and the price of raw materials has continued to rise sharply, etc., the domestic passenger car market in March has obviously fallen short of expectations, and to a certain extent, dragged down sales in the first quarter. According to the Association of Passenger Vehicles, wholesale sales in the passenger car market reached 1.814 million units in March, down 1.6% year-on-year; From January to March, cumulative wholesale sales reached 5.439 million units, up 8.3% year-on-year.
It is gratifying that new energy passenger vehicles continue to grow at a high rate. In March, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles totaled 455,000 units, up 122.4% year-on-year and 43.6% month-on-month. From January to March, the wholesale number of new energy passenger vehicles was 1.190 million units, an increase of 145.4% year-on-year. As a result, the cumulative promotion of new energy vehicles in the mainland reached 10.33 million, breaking through the 10 million mark.
Among them, the performance of traditional brand new energy is still stable, maintaining a market share of nearly 60% in the first quarter. Among the top 15 (TOP15) car companies in the wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars released by the Association of Automobile Manufacturers from January to March, traditional brands occupied 9 seats, with a total sales volume of 664,000 units, an increase of 140.8% year-on-year. BYD, in particular, sold more than 100,000 vehicles in March, pushing its sales to nearly 300,000 units in the first quarter, surpassing SAIC-GM-Wuling by nearly 170,000 vehicles and tesla by more than 100,000 vehicles.
Recently, BYD has frequently "swiped the screen" in the industry. Following the announcement of the suspension of production of fuel vehicles on April 3, it announced on April 22 that the company's board of directors deliberated and approved a plan to repurchase shares, intending to repurchase shares for 1.8 billion to 1.85 billion yuan, and will use all of them to implement the company's employee stock ownership plan, and the transfer price is 0 yuan per share. Huge repurchase of shares, free of charge to employees, but also made BYD in one fell swoop to become what people call "other people's company".
The announcement shows that the target stocks held by the employee stock ownership plan are unlocked in three phases, and the specific unlocking ratio and quantity of each period are determined according to the results of the company's performance appraisal and personal performance appraisal. At the level of company performance appraisal, the performance appraisal indicators of the three unlocking periods are that the revenue growth rate is not less than 30%, 30% and 20%. According to BYD's operating income of 216.142 billion yuan in 2021, its revenue this year will sprint to 280.985 billion yuan.
On April 18, BYD disclosed its performance forecast, and it is expected to achieve a net profit of 650 million to 950 million yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 174% to 300% year-on-year. Some analysts believe that according to this calculation, BYD's revenue growth rate of 30% in 2022 is not out of reach.
In addition to BYD, SAIC-GM-Wuling's sales in the first quarter have also approached 120,000 vehicles, but the year-on-year growth rate is still not high, only 16.3%. Chery, Geely, and GAC Aean all sold more than 40,000 vehicles in the first three months, an increase of many times year-on-year; Great Wall, SAIC Passenger Cars and Changan Automobile also exceeded 30,000 units.
"The cumulative share of autonomy from January to March was 46%, an increase of 5.1 percentage points compared with the same period in 2021." Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said, "Autonomy has gained significant increments in the new energy market, the performance of head companies is differentiated, and traditional car companies such as BYD have shown high growth year-on-year." ”
In contrast, in terms of mainstream joint ventures and luxury car brands, only one brand of Volkswagen is still listed in the TOP15; In March and the previous three months, Volkswagen's joint ventures in China, FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC Volkswagen, led the joint venture brands. According to the data, Volkswagen sold 38,700 new energy vehicles in China in the first three months, of which the ID family model sold a total of 27,100 units.
In view of the current weakness of the joint venture brand in the field of new energy, the research report released by CITIC Securities believes that although the joint venture brand is inferior to the leading independent brand in terms of three electricity parameters and intelligent configuration, whether from the perspective of manufacturing process, chassis tuning or brand and channel, the competitiveness it presents should not be the current sales volume and order level. The root cause is also that their product definition capabilities have path dependence and inertial thinking, thus showing "overconfidence" on the pricing side, which may make it difficult for them to maintain the past product premiums and excess profits on the smart electric vehicle track.
It can be seen that under the general trend of new energy, joint venture brands are constantly accelerating the pace of electrification. In particular, although the Beijing Auto Show, which was scheduled to open on April 21, was delayed due to the epidemic, many joint venture brands still launched new cars online according to the original plan. GUANGQI Honda e: NP1, Dongfeng Fukang ES600 under DPCA, BMW 7 Series family, Mercedes-Benz's new EQS pure electric SUV... Recently, a large wave of joint ventures and luxury brand new energy models have been intensively unveiled and entered the market. With the gradual development of the joint venture, whether it can achieve a reversal or change in the new energy vehicle market in the future is undoubtedly worthy of attention.
At present, Changchun, Shanghai and other places are stepping up the resumption of work and production. The latest news shows that 70% of the first batch of 666 key enterprises announced by Shanghai have resumed work and production, and the capacity utilization rate of enterprises has been continuously improved. However, in the eyes of the automotive industry, the relevant impact of the suspension and reduction of production may not be fully reflected until at least half a month later. Some institutions predict that from March to April, the epidemic will cause about 600,000 losses to passenger car production. But at the same time, the agency believes that the weak consumption caused by the impact of short-term events is often only temporary, and will bring retaliatory consumption after the event.
In this regard, relevant ministries and commissions are stepping up multi-party coordination to ensure a stable supply chain, promote consumption, achieve bailout of enterprises, and promote the stable operation of the economy. At the regular press conference held on April 21, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Commerce said that the Ministry of Commerce will take multiple measures to promote the sustained recovery of consumption under the premise of doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control. In terms of upgrading the traditional consumption level, encourage bulk consumption such as automobiles and home appliances, deepen the reform of the automobile circulation field, expand the circulation of second-hand cars, and support the accelerated development of new energy vehicles...
Earlier, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also said that it will further improve the "white list" system of key industrial chain supply chain enterprises, and ensure the stability and smoothness of the key industrial chain supply chain and promote the stable production and resumption of work and production of key industrial enterprises by strengthening ministerial and provincial coordination and cross-regional coordination.
"On the whole, the mainland new energy automobile industry has entered a new stage of large-scale and rapid development, and it is expected to maintain a high-speed development trend this year." Ministry of Industry and Information Technology spokesman Luo Junjie said. (China Economic Network reporter Guo Tao)