Since the beginning of 2022, there has been a continuous structural shortage of global automotive chips, which has caused great resistance to automobile production. The sudden outbreak of the epidemic in many cities in March had a great impact on the production of parts and components and logistics and transportation, which further intensified the production pressure on the already damaged automobile supply chain. The combination of many factors has led to the failure of automobile production and sales to be well released. Then I briefly review the situation in 2020 to expand the expectations for the future market.
First, the two major factors affecting the car
The wiring harness is known as the "blood vessel" of the car and is one of the important auto parts. Western Ukraine has low-cost, highly skilled labor and abundant raw materials, and at the same time is close to European automobile factories, so many Asian and European wire harness companies have set up factories here, making it a major production center for automotive wiring harnesses in the world. Since the events of February 25, 2022, the production of most Ukrainian wire harness factories has been greatly affected, and there has been a shortage of automotive wiring harnesses in the world. Since the beginning of this year, the epidemic has seriously affected the three northeastern provinces, including Jilin Province, the Yangtze River Delta region, Shandong Province and Hebei Province. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, Shanghai and Jilin will account for 19.8% of the country's total automobile production in 2021, occupying a large area of domestic automobile production bases. Affected by the epidemic in March, car companies faced large-scale production stoppages, which in turn affected the entire automotive supply chain, causing heavy losses in economic benefits. Affected by the shortage of automotive wiring harnesses and the suspension of production by some car companies, the production and sales data of automobiles in March fell short of expectations.
Second, the new energy production and sales data is eye-catching
Looking back at the situation of new energy vehicles under the epidemic situation in 2020, the sales consumption of new energy passenger cars in the mainland in the first half of 2020 was only 331,000 units, down 42% year-on-year. Since July, the consumption of new energy vehicles in the mainland has rebounded strongly, and the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the second half of the year have reached 840,000 units, an increase of 73% year-on-year. Sales of new energy passenger cars for the whole year were 1.173 million units, up 12% year-on-year. In contrast, the production and sales of passenger cars in March 2022 were 1.881 million units and 1.864 million units, respectively, up 22.4% and 25.1% month-on-month, and 0.1% and 0.6% year-on-year. Among them, the performance of new energy vehicles was relatively eye-catching, with production and sales of 465,000 units and 484,000 units, an increase of 25.4% and 43.9% month-on-month, an increase of 1.1 times year-on-year, and a market share of 19.3%. With the gradual introduction of favorable policies for new energy vehicles in recent years, there has also been a significant increase in output. With the improvement of the marginal supply of the new energy vehicle supply chain, the actual demand at the terminal has not decreased, and it is optimistic about the recovery of automobiles after the recovery of the epidemic, maintaining the domestic sales forecast of 5.5 million vehicles for the whole year.
Third, favorable policies are frequently issued
On April 25, the General Office of the State Council issued opinions on further releasing consumption potential to promote the sustained recovery of consumption. Among them, the automobile industry mentioned that it is necessary to support the accelerated development of new energy vehicles; encourage qualified areas to carry out new energy vehicles and green smart home appliances to go to the countryside, and promote the construction of supporting facilities such as charging piles (stations); establish and improve the management mechanism of the automobile modification industry and accelerate the development of the automobile aftermarket; steadily increase the bulk consumption of automobiles, and all regions must not add new car purchase restriction measures. Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission launched a survey on the production and operation status of the automotive industry. According to the survey, many car company representatives suggested that another round of "cars going to the countryside" was launched to stimulate automobile consumption. A number of favorable auto policies have been introduced frequently, and the market demand after the recovery of the epidemic is expected to receive a new round of boost, but it still takes a certain day from transmission to the steel demand side.
With the improvement of the epidemic situation in various regions, large automobile companies such as FAW, SAIC, General Motors, and Tesla have gradually resumed work and production plans, and the lack of spare parts in other main automobile bases will be alleviated one after another. However, there is still some resistance to logistics and transportation in various regions in the short term, and it is expected that the full release of automobile production is expected to be achieved in June. With the continuous introduction of favorable policies for new energy, the market share of new energy vehicles will be further expanded, or it will become the main force in the growth of passenger car production and sales.