Note: This analysis article only represents Cui Dongshu's personal views, if you have any objections, please leave a message. World car sales in March 2024 reached 8.15 million units, up 0% year-on-year and 34% month-on-month from February. March 2024 is still slightly lower than the March 2018 peak, which is at the median level of the previous year. From January to March 2024, sales were 21.05 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3%. In March 2024, the global share of Chinese automakers was 33%. From a global perspective, China's auto market recovered strongly in March, with Chinese automakers such as Geely Automobile and Changan Automobile rebounding most prominently, while Asian groups represented by Toyota and Kia still performed poorly. The international chip shortage in the past two years has had little impact on China's auto market, but has promoted the strong performance of China's auto exports, seizing the huge supply and demand gap in the international market and obtaining rare development opportunities. As a highly monopolistic industry such as automotive chips, the supply-side contraction will bring significant opportunities to the rise of China's supply chain, and the development of electrification has also led to the gradual decline of some international car companies.
1. The trend of world automobile sales over the years
World car sales in March 2024 reached 8.15 million units, up 0% year-on-year and 34% month-on-month from February. March 2024 is still slightly lower than the March 2018 peak, which is at the median level of the previous year. From January to March 2024, sales were 21.05 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3%.
After a continuous decline from 2018 to 2020, the world's major countries sold 81.35 million vehicles in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and the recovery performance after the epidemic is better. However, in 2022, there will be only 80.18 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, and only slightly higher than the sales volume in 2020.
World car sales in 2023 will reach 89.01 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13%, but the gap is still 5% from the high level in recent years, and the gap is narrowing. In 2024, it is expected to exceed 90 million according to the pace of 2023.
The January-March 2023 trend was significantly lower than the sales level of a normal year in the previous calendar year, and the April-December period was better than the level of 2018-2022, mainly due to the improvement in sales volume due to factors such as the recovery of production. From January to March 2024, the world auto market was relatively stable, but the Chinese auto market had an increase in the Spring Festival factor from January to February, which contributed more to the increase in January.
2. The trend of world automobile sales over the years
The world car sales in the above table are mainly sales in 70 countries, and these 70 core countries have about 90 million units in 2019, which is basically a monthly sales volume. Due to the frequent wars, the world data has been slow in recent months.
There are 100 other countries that can only track annual sales, with a total of about 3 million units in 2022, compared to the 70 major countries with 80 million units, the total number of these smaller countries is about 3%, and the impact is not great.
In terms of global sales represented by major countries, global vehicle sales in 2018 decreased by 1%. For the first time since 2010, it fell into negative annual growth. In 2019, 89.81 million vehicles were sold, down 4% year-on-year, slightly better than the decline in 2008, 13% in 2020, 4% year-on-year in 2021, 1% decline in world sales in 2022, 11% in 2023, and 3% in January-March 2024. In January this year, the Chinese auto market was temporarily strong at the beginning of the Spring Festival, but it fell back in February, and the comprehensive performance of the Chinese auto market in the first quarter was still stable and slightly increased.
3. China will maintain a leading position in sales in 2024
China's auto market has a huge influence on the world auto market. From 2016 to 2018, Chinese automobiles accounted for about 30% of the world's automobiles, which dropped to 29% in 2019, but still have an absolute advantage. In 2020-2021, the share rebounded to 32%. In 2022, China's share rose to 33%.
China's share will remain at 34% in 2023, of which the lower at the beginning of the year is a normal reflection of the Spring Festival factor and the withdrawal of the preferential car purchase tax policy, followed by China's share of 32% in January-March 2024 due to the Spring Festival factor. This year, the market share in North America and Europe has fully recovered, and the market trend in the southern hemisphere will be stable.
4. The market of developing countries has strengthened significantly
From the perspective of sales in various countries around the world, the current relatively good performance is the developed country market in Europe and the United States. The trend of China's auto market is generally good. Russia's sales are actually less than China's exports, but Russia is also recovering, bringing China's independent high profits.
5. China's world market share trend
At the beginning of 2023, with the withdrawal of preferential policies, China's auto sales plummeted, with the share falling to 30% in March, a good level of 32% in February-April, 33% in May-July, and a high of 38% in the world's share of Chinese automobiles from August to March. In 2023, the world market will be further differentiated, and China's share will gradually recover. After the policy withdrawal, China's auto market will gradually recover in 2023, coupled with strong exports, so the market will continue to strengthen. In March 2024, other countries showed a better trend, with China accounting for 33% of the world's share, better than the previous level.
6. Characteristics of monthly trend of automobile sales in various countries
Judging from the monthly sales growth trend of countries around the world, the trend of each month is basically balanced. However, due to the influence of seasonal factors, annual factors and many other factors, there is still a large contrast between the trends of various countries.
As China's auto market is still in the popularization period, showing a relatively strong trend at the beginning of the year and the end of the year, and a relatively soft trend in the summer, while the U.S. auto market is relatively weak at the beginning of the year and relatively stable in the middle of the year, but the spring pull up characteristics of China's auto market this year are not obvious, so the share increase is not large.
As the auto markets in Europe and the United States are facing a gradual recovery, the auto market trend is relatively stable. The trend of the Japanese auto market in March this year was not strong, and the Chinese auto market at the beginning of 2024 is still good.
7. The performance of the world's share of international groups
This chart shows the global sales share trend of each major automobile group. Judging from the current comprehensive performance of the group, Chinese automakers generally performed strongly. Due to the good market performance of Asian automakers such as Geely, BYD, Chery, Changan, and Suzuki, the production and sales of Asian automakers have recovered well. European automakers generally performed poorly.
8. The performance of the proportion of international groups in various places
China's own brands have increased their share of the world in an all-round way. BYD, Changan, Great Wall and other independent performance is stronger.
With the exception of Suzuki and Honda, the share of international brands has declined across the board. Toyota Group's performance is relatively weak, down 1.8 percentage points from last year, and its global share in 2024 has reached the level of about 10.6%, but the overall performance of the North American market is strong.
Volkswagen's performance was relatively stable, with a slight increase of 0.05% in market share, and the Chinese market stabilized. The Volkswagen Group's global market has generally improved significantly, and the southern hemisphere market has rebounded significantly.
South Korea's Hyundai Motor is relatively stable, down 0.6 percentage points from last year, and its global share in 2024 is about 7.4%, performing well in other Asian markets, but its product strength in China is not strong and weak.
Suzuki's market performance was strong, mainly in markets such as Japan. The Honda Group also performed better this year, with a 0.2% growth rate, while the Chinese market performed weakly.
Germany's Mercedes-Benz and BMW Group's performance was stable, the performance of the traditional luxury car market in China improved, and the Chinese market of luxury cars grew from a low base at the beginning of this year.
Attached: A collection of recent information
*Regional market analysis of new energy passenger vehicles in March 2024
*National Charging Pile Market Analysis-March 2024*National passenger car market inventory of 3.33 million units at the end of March, inventory for 57 days*Revenue of the automotive industry from January to March 2024 was 2.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 6%, a profit of 104 billion yuan, an increase of 32%, and a profit margin of 4.6%*The release of the implementation rules for car trade-in subsidies is a major positive*[Passenger Federation Branch Forum] Pickup market analysis in March 2024*Beijing International Auto Show-Chinese automobiles will definitely develop globally* Auto Market Scanning - Issue 15, 2024 (April 15-April 21)*China's automobile imports in January-March 2024 were 156,000, down 4%*Analysis of China's automobile export market from January to March 2024*Analysis of lithium battery market for new energy vehicles-March 2024*Operation characteristics of the domestic market of commercial vehicles in China—March 2024*Model trend of passenger car segments in March*Wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles in China in March 2024 was 810,000, and the penetration rate was 37%* Auto Market Scan-Issue 14, 2024 (04/07-04/14)*From January to March 2024, automobile production increased by 7%, consumption increased by 4%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 2.08 million units, with a penetration rate of 31% and 34 square meters of houses/cars*Analysis of automobile market segment trends and manufacturers' competitive performance in March*Price war status tracking in 2024-Q1*Scrapping, renewal and trade-in to promote the high-quality development of automobile consumption*Market structure analysis of passenger car price segments-March* Auto Market Scan-Issue 13, 2024 (04/01-04/06)*Analysis of the operating characteristics of the national passenger car market in March*【Monthly Analysis】Analysis of the national passenger car market in March 2024*Comparative analysis of the performance of Chinese and American auto dealers in 2023*Comparative tracking of annual report indicators of new energy overseas listed companies
*In 2023, the double credit of fuel and new energy will skyrocket
*Discussion on the Classification and Calculation of New Passenger Cars - March * 2024 China Automobile Exports Overseas Part of Data Tracking - February * Auto Market Scanning - December 2024 (March 25 - March 31)
*[New Energy] March 2024 New Energy Passenger Vehicle Manufacturers Wholesale Sales Update
*China's share of the world's new energy vehicles in January-February 2024 is 62%
*1.69 million used cars in January 2024, up 35%
* Trade-in to reduce logistics costs - promote the strong growth of gas heavy trucks
*Comparative analysis of the trend of the national residential property market and the auto market*Analysis of the national rental online car-hailing market - 2023
*The price war in the national passenger car market will continue to be fierce in 2024
*We should never be pessimistic about new energy vehicles*The brand of the Passenger Association will continue to be brilliant in the past 30 years*In 2023, China's automobiles have achieved remarkable results, and the potential is even greater
*Chinese automobiles lead the high-quality growth of China's exports
*Ministry of Public Security Licensing and Driver Data Analysis - January-December 2023
*Analysis of the first batch of new energy vehicles in 2024
*Tracking of the recall status of the national automobile market from January to December 2023*Analysis of automobile ownership and scrapping exports