According to the basic situation of the national real estate market released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the national real estate development investment from January to April was 3,092.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%; the sales area of newly built commercial buildings was 292.52 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%; The sales of newly built commercial buildings were 2,806.7 billion yuan, down by 28.3 percent.
Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, chief economist and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, said at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that since the beginning of this year, various regions have continuously optimized real estate policies due to urban policies. In the next stage, in accordance with the spirit of the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, we should earnestly implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee, combine the new changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market, and the new expectations of the people for high-quality housing, coordinate the study of policies and measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize the incremental housing, and pay close attention to building a new model of real estate development to promote the high-quality development of real estate.
The year-on-year decline in real estate development investment continued to widen
Specifically, in terms of real estate development investment, the indicator is generally in the range of a slightly larger decline. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to April, the national real estate development investment was 3,092.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%; Among them, residential investment was 2,339.2 billion yuan, down by 10.5 percent.
Wang Xiaochang, chief analyst of Zhuge Data Research Center, believes that real estate investment confidence has been in a negative growth situation for nearly two years and has not improved so far. On the one hand, the scale of land supply has shrunk, the amount of land to be developed by real estate companies has decreased, and the current new home sales market has not improved, and the willingness of real estate companies to start new construction has been at a low level. On the other hand, since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of real estate development completions has turned from positive to negative, which has led to the decline in development investment that is difficult to change. The 430 Central Political Bureau meeting put forward the policy direction of destocking, and it is expected that there is room for improvement in the confidence of follow-up real estate development investment, but because the development investment has been at a relatively low level for a long time, the investment of real estate enterprises is more cautious, and it is difficult to recover significantly in a short period of time.
From the perspective of housing construction, new construction and completed area, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises from January to April was 687544 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%. Among them, the residential construction area was 480647 million square meters, a decrease of 11.4%. The area of new housing construction was 235.1 million square meters, down by 24.6%. Among them, the area of new residential construction was 170.06 million square meters, a decrease of 25.6%. The area of housing completions was 188.6 million square meters, down by 20.4%. Among them, the area of residential completions was 137.46 million square meters, down by 21.0%.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, pointed out that the index of new housing construction area has been declining for 31 consecutive months, and some companies have recently slowed down the pace of construction in order to control costs or consider the follow-up market. At present, the financing coordination mechanism in various places is actively promoted, which has a positive effect on improving the ability of real estate enterprises to start construction. In the next step, there will be positive policies in terms of optimizing the business environment and "starting early and pre-selling". In addition, the decline in completions is mainly due to the decline in investment in land acquisition in recent years. All localities are still actively promoting the work of guaranteeing the delivery of buildings or ensuring the delivery of housing. In particular, the emergence of the concept of "guaranteed delivery of housing" requires all localities to improve quality, not only to meet engineering standards, but also to meet the actual needs of residents living in new housing.
From the perspective of funds in place, from January to April, the funds in place of real estate development enterprises were 3,403.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.9%. Among them, domestic loans were 558.3 billion yuan, down by 10.1 percent; the utilization of foreign capital was 900 million yuan, down by 46.7%; self-raised funds were 1,173.6 billion yuan, down by 10.1 percent; deposits and advance receipts were 1,000.2 billion yuan, down by 37.2 percent; personal mortgage loans were 495.3 billion yuan, down by 39.7 percent.
Yan Yuejin believes that the relevant foundation needs to be consolidated in the availability of funds. In addition to bank loans and financing coordination mechanisms, the boost to the housing market is also very crucial. All localities should indeed pay more attention to funds, especially to combine debt early warning and resolution.
In the cold, the sales area fell by more than 40% in a single month
In terms of sales of newly built commercial housing, the decline has expanded. In particular, the decline in sales area in a single month has reached more than 40%, which needs to be paid attention to.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to April, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 292.52 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%, of which the sales area of residential buildings decreased by 23.8%. The sales of newly built commercial buildings were 2,806.7 billion yuan, down by 28.3 percent, of which the sales of residential buildings fell by 31.1 percent.
Judging from the monthly situation, both month-on-month and year-on-year are in a downward trend. According to the calculation of China Real Estate Network, the sales area of newly built commercial housing in April was 65.84 million square meters, down 41.73% month-on-month and 14.38% year-on-year; The sales of newly built commercial buildings were 671.2 billion yuan, down 37.79% month-on-month and 27.08% year-on-year.
Yan Yuejin expects that there will be a new round of active destocking policies across the country. At the same time, Hangzhou Lin'an and Yunnan Dali have recently acquired new housing projects, that is, the implementation of the "purchase instead of construction" model, which is conducive to the better removal of inventory data.
In terms of inventory, although the area of commercial housing for sale has declined for two consecutive months, the work of destocking is still arduous. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the area of commercial housing for sale at the end of April was 745.53 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%. Among them, the residential area for sale was 390.88 million square meters, an increase of 24.5%.
The year-on-year decline in housing prices in all tiers of cities expanded
In terms of housing prices, the overall sales price of commercial housing continued to decline in April, while the decline further expanded, and the trend of "exchanging price for volume" accelerated.
According to the "Changes in the Sales Prices of Commercial Housing in 70 Large and Medium-sized Cities" released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the same day, in April 2024, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales prices of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing increased month-on-month in 6 and 1 cities respectively, a decrease of 5 and the same from the previous month; There were 5 and 0 cities with year-on-year increases, a decrease of 6 and the same from the previous month.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the real estate market continued to adjust, and among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the month-on-month and year-on-year declines in the sales prices of commercial housing in all tiers of cities expanded.
In addition, according to the calculation of the E-House Research Institute, the price index of newly built commercial housing in 70 cities across the country in April increased by -0.6% month-on-month and -3.5% year-on-year; The second-hand home price index rose by -0.9% month-on-month and -6.8% year-on-year.
In terms of the performance of each city, in terms of the price of newly built commercial housing, according to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, Shanghai continued to lead the way in April with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, followed by Taiyuan and Zunyi with a 0.2% increase; Ningbo ranked first with a 1.8% month-on-month decline, followed by Chongqing, Guangzhou and Xiamen, all with a 1.3% month-on-month decline. In terms of year-on-year growth, only Xi'an, Shanghai, Chengdu, Hangzhou and Sanya maintained gains, Tianjin and Taiyuan were flat, and the rest of the cities were in a downward trend.
In terms of second-hand residential prices, only one city, Kunming, rose month-on-month, with an increase of 0.2%; Yantai (-1.8%), Wenzhou (-1.7%) and Xiamen (-1.7%) were the top three decliners. On a year-on-year basis, there was no increase in cities.
In Yan Yuejin's view, there have been new changes in the market situation, and it is urgent to have a more accurate and efficient destocking policy to stabilize housing prices and expectations. Recently, a series of favorable policies have received positive feedback in some cities, which also shows that there are positive signals for destocking. It is expected that there will be a series of blockbuster policies in the near future, which will play a positive role in destocking and stabilizing housing prices.
At the same time, Yan Yuejin believes that the second-hand housing market continues to be in a critical period of de-bubble, and this process is in line with the logic of supply and demand. In the near future, it should be noted that some landlords are not in a hurry to buy new houses after selling second-hand houses, and new mechanisms and measures are needed in the follow-up in terms of "selling the old" and "replacing the new".
Guan Rongxue, a senior analyst at Zhuge Data Research Center, believes that the recent favorable policies for the real estate market have been frequently introduced, and the 4.30 Central Political Bureau meeting released a new signal of "destocking", and the core cities have intensively loosened purchase restrictions, launched "buying a house can be settled", etc., and even some areas have begun to acquire stock houses to improve market supply and demand, but due to the lack of market confidence for a long time, whether it is transaction volume or price, there are no obvious signs of improvement. Under the mentality of "buying up, not buying down" in the market, the continuous decline in housing prices will indeed exacerbate the wait-and-see sentiment of buying houses to a certain extent, and the industry adjustment has not yet ended, and it will take time for the market to recover. It is expected that short-term prices will still lack the momentum to rise steadily, and the prices of new and second-hand homes will generally continue to fall in May, but the month-on-month decline is likely to narrow or stabilize.