In the article on intelligent car upgrading before wall Street Insight Research, it is mentioned that because new energy vehicles enter the development path of high voltage, the original structure will change, and the corresponding auto parts will also be upgraded and replaced, thus bringing new demand. Therefore, the Wall Street Insights & Careers Research Institute will conduct a series of special topics for auto parts.
The focus of this article will be to answer the following questions in detail
Why pay attention to automotive wiring harnesses
How much room for growth
High speed and high voltage, transmission demand who put the volume first
Industry pattern analysis
First, the concept of science:
The function of the automotive wiring harness: it is the "central nervous system" used to connect the automotive circuit, and it is the transmission carrier of various energy sources and signals, which is spread throughout the various functional parts of the car and is the lifeblood of the automobile's network.
Composition of automotive wiring harness: cable + connector
The connector is like a plug on a phone charger, usually connected to the cable and plugged into a port at the other end.
The following figure shows a kind of automotive wiring harness, the circled part is the connector, and the long one is the cable.
Image source: Network
Second, there are two reasons for concern
Electrification: New energy vehicles we all understand that the core is the power source has changed, from the fuel engine to battery drive, this change will directly lead to a sharp increase in the voltage in the car, the original voltage in the car is within 50V, and into the era of new energy vehicles, the voltage in the car has reached 400V.
After the working voltage environment in the car is improved, the network nerves in the car also need to be upgraded to meet the safe and stable transmission of data and energy under this load. As a result, there will be new demands for "network nerve" wiring harnesses as well as "plugs for wiring harnesses" connectors.
Intelligent: With the development trend of intelligent cars, the functions of cars have become more numerous, including automatic driving, entertainment information systems, intelligent control, Internet of Vehicles and other attributes. These functions are also new growth variables, so there are higher requirements for the speed of data transmission, so wiring harnesses and connectors also need to be upgraded.
Conclusion: Both electrification and intelligence just mentioned require upgrades to the connection inside the car, thus catalyzing two requirements: one is high voltage; the other is high speed. The specific analysis is placed later.
Third, the demand for wiring harnesses has grown rapidly
First, the bicycle value of automotive wiring harnesses has nearly doubled. According to the traditional passenger car wiring harness, the bicycle value is generally 2000-3000 yuan, and this average is the statistical Volkswagen model, excluding the cost of high-end cars. The bicycle value of the new energy vehicle wiring harness is about 5,000 yuan. From the significant increase in the cost of the bicycle wiring harness of the car, it can be seen that the demand for the wiring harness is changing in the same direction.
Second, the sales growth of electric vehicles is a matter of certainty. By November this year, global sales of new energy vehicles were about 5 million units, with a penetration rate of less than 8%. By 2025, global sales of new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 22 million; by 2030, global sales of new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 40 million, and the penetration rate will reach 45%.
Combined with the above two points, the sales volume of new energy vehicles has increased, and the value of new energy vehicle bicycle wiring harnesses has doubled. Therefore, it can be inferred that the market demand for wire harnesses is growing.
Knowing that the demand for wire harnesses is growing, let's take a look at what is the specific type of growth?
Fourth, high-voltage wiring harnesses grow the fastest
First, let's look at a set of diagrams. Whether it is a new energy vehicle or a traditional fuel vehicle, the wiring harness in the body is diverse, so the electrical system of the wiring harness car is usually classified: high-voltage system and low-voltage system. Low-voltage wiring harnesses and high-voltage wiring harnesses are used in different environments.
In essence, the amount of low-voltage wiring harness will not increase, and the demand for high-voltage wiring harness will increase. Why? There are two reasons for this.
First of all, the previous Wall Street Insight and Wisdom Research also mentioned that the change in new energy vehicles is the addition of batteries, which brings about an increase in the working voltage in the car, thereby driving the demand for high-voltage wiring harnesses.
Specifically, high-voltage wiring harnesses are mainly used in power batteries, drive motors, vehicle chargers (OBC), DC/DC converters, high-voltage distribution boxes, electric compressors and PTC.
These are all traditional fuel vehicles do not have, so as long as every new energy vehicle is manufactured, it will drive the demand for corresponding high-voltage wiring harnesses.
Secondly, for ordinary wiring harnesses, such as the demand for front and rear door wiring harnesses, there is no incremental change.
In addition, due to the upgrading of automotive intelligence and electrification, the automotive architecture has also been transformed, from the traditional distributed electrical and electronic architecture to the domain centralized electrical and electronic architecture. Simply put, as the functions of the car increase, some functions are classified and managed centrally, and each class becomes a domain.
At present, there is no unified standard for the division of domains, and it is completely set by automakers. There are now a variety of scenarios for 2/3/4/5 domains on the market.
The advantage of this division is that it is easy to centralize management and reduce complex lines, so as not to leave security risks. Therefore, most of the functional modules are connected to the domain controller (DCU) nearby. The next step in connecting the DCU to the central controller is to use a CAN bus or Ethernet.
After the upgrade of the automotive architecture, the ordinary wiring harness used is actually reduced. However, the focus is on reducing the need for wiring harnesses in GM's low-voltage environment.
Fifth, the growth of high-speed transmission is slower than that of high-voltage transmission
As mentioned in the above Wall Street Insights and Wisdom Study, the development of automobile intelligence has increased the requirements for data transmission speed. Mainly in the field of automatic driving, cameras, lidar, ultrasonic radar, and millimeter-wave radar will be involved. These four parts are very high for transmission speed, especially radar, the maximum to reach the transmission speed requirements of more than gigabits, HSD, Ethernet and so on. This requires the use of high-speed connectors for data transmission to reduce data latency. In addition, it also includes the Internet of Vehicles and entertainment functions, which require data transmission speeds of at least 100 megabytes, which has entered the trend of optical fiber.
It is worth paying attention to: the demand for high-speed connectors is not as large as that of high-voltage connectors, because compared with the electrification of automobiles, the intelligent landing speed is still relatively slow. The penetration rate of intelligent driving above the L2 level is only 12%, and the current degree of intelligence is still in its infancy.
Sixth, the value of the connector comparison: the high-voltage market is the first to increase the volume
The first major downstream application area of connectors is automotive, accounting for 23.7% of the global market. Thanks to the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, connectors will also grow in tandem.
Just mentioned that the current demand for high-voltage connectors is actually greater than that of high-speed connectors, on the one hand, from the current value of bicycles to verify, low-voltage connectors about 600 yuan; high-voltage connectors about 2000 yuan; high-speed connectors about 600 yuan. It can be seen from this that the value of high voltage connectors is the largest.
On the other hand, from the perspective of market space, the current low-voltage connector occupies the largest market share, this year's Market Size in China is 15 billion yuan, the market size of high-voltage connectors is 6 billion yuan, and the market size of high-speed connectors is 3 billion yuan.
However, by 2025, the market size of high-voltage connectors will leap to the first place, predicting about 20 billion yuan, exceeding low-voltage connectors by 15 billion yuan and high-speed connectors by 12 billion yuan.
However, this can only represent the situation of the past five years. With the gradual landing of intelligence, the market space for high-speed connectors will eventually be the largest.
7. Analysis of the industry pattern
1. The concentration of the automotive wiring harness market is very high, and foreign capital occupies most of the market share, which currently forms a pattern of oligopolistic competition.
Because the wiring harness of the car involves a safety level, the specification requirements are relatively high. Generally speaking, OEMs will implement the most stringent product standards and supplier management, so it is not easy to enter the supply chain list of OEMs, and it takes at least 1-2 years for products to meet standards. From the perspective of global market share, the main loss of qi, Sumitomo Electric accounted for more than 50% of the share, Delphi accounted for about 17%, the future domestic replacement space is very large, but the premise is to pass the qualification certification of the vehicle manufacturer first.
2. The localization rate of high voltage connectors is the highest
In the global connector market, China's market share ranks first, reaching 32%; the second place is Europe, accounting for 22%; the third place is North America, accounting for 21%.
However, the specifications and technical difficulties of the car will be relatively high, and in the automotive connector industry, foreign capital still occupies most of the market share.
It is worth noting that in the field of high-voltage connectors, China's localization rate has reached 25%; the localization rate of low-voltage connectors and high-speed connectors is currently only 5%.
According to the statistics of Guojin Securities, in China's high-voltage connector market, the head of Tyco, Amphinol and Aptiv are all foreign manufacturers; it is worth noting that domestic manufacturers have been recognized and entered the supply chain. At present, AVIC Optoelectronics, Ruida and Yonggui Electric Occupy 29% of the market share.
(China high voltage connector market share, picture from: Guojin Securities)
In the field of automotive high-speed connectors, Rosenberg occupies a general share, the second and third are Tyco and Ampheno, respectively; Chinese manufacturers have Electric Connection Technology, Yihua shares and Tianhai shares with a total market share of 8%.
(China high-speed connector market share, picture from: Guojin Securities)