Back in November 2020, the General Office of the State Council issued the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Planning"). The plan clearly puts forward the goal of reaching about 20% of the total sales volume of new vehicles and new vehicles by 2025.
At that time, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the Chinese market was only 5.8%. To reach the target of 20% penetration after 5 years meant an annual increase of nearly 30%, which seemed difficult at the time. Unexpectedly, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles surged to 14.8% in 2021, which suddenly ignited people's enthusiasm for new energy vehicles.
After entering 2022, new energy vehicles continue to march forward. According to the data, the domestic new energy passenger car retail sales in the first quarter of this year were 1.070 million units, an increase of 146.6% year-on-year. Among them, the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 445,000 units in March, an increase of 137.6% year-on-year, an increase of 63.1% month-on-month, and a penetration rate of 28.2%, an increase of 17.6 percentage points over the penetration rate of 10.6% in the same period last year.
With the current development trend, the 20% target will be achieved ahead of schedule this year. Some industry insiders even gave optimistic predictions that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles this year will reach 35%.
The entire industry, from OEMs to the supply chain, is excited, as if the high penetration rate represents that new energy vehicles have surpassed fuel vehicles to become mainstream.
But does penetration really say for itself?
High permeability is only a phased product
Professor Zhao Fuquan, dean of the Institute of Automotive Industry and Technology Strategy of Tsinghua University, said earlier that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is not a simple line of graduality, there will be ups and downs, from 1% to 5% is very slow, but from 15% to 30% very quickly, which is related to technological maturity, consumer psychology, infrastructure, etc.
The market situation also confirms Professor Zhao Fuquan's view. In the four years from 2017 to 2020, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has only increased from less than 3% to 5.8%. This is also the achievement of the state financial subsidy investment of more than 100 billion yuan. However, after entering 2021, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has grown rapidly and has become unmanageable.
Therefore, at this stage, although the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has shown a rapid growth trend, it does not mean that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will continue to soar in the future. At the same time, the penetration rate of a single month is not the same as the penetration rate of the whole year. Due to the production rhythm of car companies, the proportion of new energy vehicles may be high in a certain period of time, but it does not mean that it can continue to increase every month.
When the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reaches a certain level, it is bound to enter a stage of growth slowdown and balanced development with fuel vehicles.
The digital distortion behind the high penetration
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles refers to the proportion of new energy vehicle sales in total vehicle sales in a certain period of time. If the total sales of cars as the denominator are smaller, and the sales of new energy vehicles as molecules are larger, the penetration rate will naturally be higher.
The current high penetration rate of new energy vehicles is also largely due to the shrinkage of the overall sales volume of the automobile market. The production and sales of the entire automobile market have become smaller, and the penetration rate has been correspondingly enlarged, resulting in a distortion of the penetration rate and distortion of the number.
The problem is actually already there in 2021. In august, september and 12, 2021, the monthly penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 20%, and the retail sales of passenger cars in these three months fell sharply year-on-year.
It will be even more pronounced by 2022. Taking March as an example, the retail sales of the passenger car market in March 2022 reached 1.579 million units, down 10.5% year-on-year, while the retail sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow, and between this decrease and an increase, there was no doubt that the 28.5% penetration rate figure was mixed with a lot of "moisture". In particular, BYD's initiative to stop production of fuel vehicles has further reduced the proportion of fuel vehicles.
The retail passenger car market expects the passenger car retail market to be around 1.100 million units in April, down 31.9% year-on-year. If nothing else, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles may be higher. Such a penetration rate, its reference value will be greatly reduced.
Structural imbalance at high permeability
Even if we admit that there is a certain index significance in the current high-speed growth of new energy vehicle penetration, it cannot hide the fact that the current sales structure of the new energy market is unbalanced.
From the perspective of geographical distribution, the developed areas represented by the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, as well as the restricted areas, and the areas focused on micro-electric vehicles (old man le), the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is higher, and in the more inland third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities, the consumption of new energy vehicles is relatively weak;
From the perspective of product structure, the single-month penetration rate of low-end electric vehicles represented by Wuling Hongguang MINIEV and high-end brand new energy vehicles of more than 300,000 is higher. However, the penetration rate of mid-range new energy vehicles occupying the mainstream mass market in China is not satisfactory;
From the perspective of brand distribution, in October last year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in independent brands was 36%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury brands was 12%, while the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands was only 3.4%.
To summarize simply, the current domestic new energy vehicles are either the second car of the rich, or the low-end "toy car", and in the mainstream just demand market, the proportion of new energy vehicles is still very small. Independent brands are desperately doing new energy vehicles, more or more to replace their original fuel vehicle market, rather than shaking the traditional joint venture brand market. Weilai and Xiaopeng have said that new energy vehicles want to grab the share of fuel vehicles, but so far there is no conclusive data to prove it.
Such penetration rates seem to be unconvincing to prove the rise of new energy vehicles.
Penetration is a scam, penetration is king
Compared with the penetration rate, the penetration rate may be more reflective of the current state of the market. The penetration rate refers to the proportion of new energy vehicle ownership to total car ownership. A rapid increase in penetration does not mean that the penetration rate will also increase rapidly. Industry insiders said that China's new energy vehicle penetration rate will reach 13.4% by the end of 2021, and this year this figure is expected to exceed 15%. There is still a significant gap between this figure and the penetration rate.
Moreover, even if the penetration rate is high, there is still a problem of structural imbalance. As long as we pay attention to the side, how many new energy vehicles can we see, whether it is a private car or a ride-hailing car, whether it is a low-end car or a high-end car, whether it is a mini car or a medium and large car, there is naturally a number in mind.
Although the rapid growth of sales of new energy vehicles is an indisputable fact. But blindly advocating penetration figures and not taking seriously the logical relationship behind the numbers is just giving chicken blood to the entire industry. Even if the penetration rate reaches 50% or even higher, new energy vehicles have become the mainstream of the market. (Text/UVIS Auto Old Cannon)
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