Note: All the "sales" data in this article are from the number of new car traffic insurance purchases, the data source: "Passenger Car Sales Inquiry" public number.
The amount of insurance is different from the "batch sales volume" disclosed by the Association of Passengers, the batch sales volume is calculated as long as the car leaves the factory, but the amount of insurance is to feedback whether the new car reaches the consumer terminal and completes the actual sales volume of the purchase.
After reading the risk data on the new car in March, I had only one feeling in my heart: I was shocked.
Sales of the Haval H6 have fallen from more than 42,000 units in January to 14,000 units in March. If the H6 in February can continue to sit on the throne of the fuel vehicle SUV sales championship with sales of nearly 17,000 units, then in March, not only the Model Y continued to win the first place in the overall SUV market, but in terms of fuel SUVs, the Honda CR-V won the championship with nearly 20,000 units. BYD Song PLUS DM-i followed, with more than 2,000 more units than the H6. The gap between Changan CS75 and H6 is only 30 units.
2, in terms of cars, the first place is still "countless how many months have been championed" Hongguang MINIEV, of course, many brands will deliberately ignore this car. But can you imagine how much BYD Qin bilangyi and Corolla sell? And Xuanyi is also more than 200 units.
3. In terms of new energy, BYD is a winner. In March, the number of insurance exceeded 100,000 units, which was almost equal to Tesla + SAIC-GM-Wuling. In the new energy TOP 10, including BYD, 60% belong to what we previously called "traditional car companies", and it is gratifying that in addition to Tesla, excellent students are all Chinese companies.
4, the joint venture brand in the field of new energy is lagging behind, the highest ranking SAIC Volkswagen in March new energy vehicles insurance volume of 7142 units, but not to be underestimated is the entire Volkswagen brand, north and south Volkswagen combined in the new energy vehicle sales of nearly 14,000 units, far ahead of other joint venture brands. If you divide it purely by brand, you can completely rank in the top ten.
In terms of new car insurance cities in May and March, Chengdu ranked first in automobile sales and second in new energy vehicle sales in March. Shanghai lags behind in new car sales due to the epidemic, but sales of new energy vehicles still rank first.
Earlier, when discussing the decline in consumption at the beginning of the month, I said that the impact of car consumption on entry-level tool cars will be more obvious. I think this has not only been fulfilled in the Haval H6, but in fact it is not the H6 that has fallen to the altar - but the large-scale loss of starter tool car users.
In January, the haval H6 plus Changan CS75, the first and second runner-up of fuel vehicle SUVs, sold a total of 73,967 units. By February, that number had shrunk sharply to 28,960 units, and in March, it had fallen further to 28,058 units.
Why take these two cars as a reference? From the data, H6 and CS75 are the first and second runners in the SUV market in 2021; from the perspective of use, these two price-effective tool SUV models can be called the "ballast stone" of China's SUV market, you know, consumers of these two cars are mostly buying for the first time, the attributes are more inclined to production tools, and they can best reflect the consumption vitality of the market basic disk.
In terms of cars, the two "ballast stone" models Xuanyi and Langyi are slightly better than the SUV market: a total of 91,351 units were sold in January, 49,700 in February, and 47,912 in March. The tool attributes of the entry sedan are relatively weak compared to the SUV. But it can also be seen that the number of consumers entering the market is decreasing significantly.
In addition to the shrinking basic consumer market, another signal in the SUV market is that consumers have begun to switch to new energy models. In fact, the sales performance of Song PLUS DM-i in March was still slightly lower than at the end of last year, but it was relatively stable in the overall decline in the range market, which proved that the current pressure on the consumer side was the most obvious in fuel tool vehicles, and for new energy improvement vehicles, it was more able to withstand the pressure.
For China's SUV consumer market, Song PLUS DM-i may be a model with great sample value, on the one hand, its position on the ranking list may be the next generation of "god car"; on the other hand, from the price band, it is also a vane for the overall upward trend of the basic consumer market.
But in any case – in 2022, boosting the vitality of the consumer market is already a top priority. Because of the Chinese auto market, it is impossible to imagine if you rely on high-end models such as GLC to "ballast". If the fundamentals continue to shrink rapidly, there won't be too many winners in the overall chain in the long run.
From the perspective of the city, Chengdu can become the most dynamic market for new car consumption in 2022, on the one hand, because Chengdu has always been the second largest city in China's private car ownership, that is to say, the stock potential is huge. On the other hand, it is because of the consumption consciousness of Chengdu consumers - as a city with no blue card, green car can also be sold to the second in the country, which is unimaginable in other cities.
But more importantly, I think that after entering 2022, Chengdu has not been overly impacted by the epidemic, which has neither affected market sentiment nor affected terminal consumption. And this will be the biggest test for the Shanghai market in April or even May.
We have been talking about consumption upgrades, but if there is no starting point and no basic disk, where does the upgrade come from? From January to March 2022, the sales volume of head models has changed sharply, coupled with the prominence of the city sample, we can clearly see the downward momentum of automobile consumption. Superimposed on various factors in the supply chain and various factors that have stopped production, in the first half of 2022, most companies and dealers will not be too good.
While waiting for the policy to boost consumer confidence, I think we should first not sing the decline, especially brands such as the Great Wall and Chang'an, because what they face is not the problem of enterprises and products, but the problem of the overall consumer market; it is not that they are falling independently, but that they are represented, and the entire basic disk users are losing.
On the other hand, we should also see that the era when the "low-hanging fruit" of the automobile market can be easily obtained is over. Whether it is BYD's all-round attack or the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is increasing at an unimaginable speed, all this does not happen overnight, requiring enterprises to have a vision in strategic layout and a precise grasp of the consumer demand for new energy vehicles.
The time has come when you need to jump up to pick the "fruit of the high hanging". The question is: Can you still jump? Do you want to jump? When do you start to jump?
Next, we will look at the trend for the mid-to-high-end consumer segment. Stay tuned.
Wen | Zhao Xiaocha
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