Author 丨 Li Sijia
Responsible editor 丨 Cao Jiadong
Editor 丨Zhu Jinbin
Recently, Chief Financial Officer Arno Antlitz revealed a series of latest brand strategies, including "reducing the lineup of more than 100 fuel vehicles by 60%" and "not caring about sales and market share", which brought Volkswagen to the center of public opinion again.
I thought that this thinking was Volkswagen's difficulties on the road to electrification and the "humble" remarks caused by the suspension of factories in Shanghai, Jilin and other places in China, but from the perspective of its first quarter financial forecast, it is not entirely so.
The first quarter earnings forecast shows that the Volkswagen Group's pure electric vehicle deliveries increased by 65% to 99,000 units. This data is much inferior to Tesla and even to the Hongguang MINIEV model, but the 65% increase has foreshadowed the initial effect of Volkswagen's traditional giant "elephant turn".
From the sales performance of pure electric models in the pushback to the remarks of Arno Antlitz, we seem to understand that perhaps as an old car company with an annual production and sales scale of tens of millions of vehicles, Volkswagen is different from many companies that focus on increasing the scale, and continuing to expand the scale of sales has long been not its focus, how to change the business model of the enterprise and match resources around the new business model, and then create core competitiveness, is the main content after the "elephant turn".
However, although "more attention to sales quality and profit margins" is based on long-term thinking and is more in line with the company's sustainable development strategy, as far as the current situation is concerned, Volkswagen's electrification transformation is indeed a mixed bagh - the first quarter delivery volume increased by 65% to show the initial results of the transformation, and the delivery of 99,000 vehicles reveals the difficulties on its electrification road.
The initial results of the "elephant turnaround"
Judging from the first quarter earnings forecast, Volkswagen's pure electric models have performed well in major markets around the world.
Among them, Volkswagen's largest pure electric vehicle market- Europe's electric vehicle sales were 58,000 units, accounting for 59% of Volkswagen's overall electric vehicle share; followed by the Chinese market, Volkswagen delivered 29,000 pure electric vehicles in the first quarter, accounting for 29% of the Volkswagen Group's global pure electric vehicle delivery; in the United States market, pure electric vehicle sales were 7900.
From the brand point of view, the group's core brand Volkswagen sold a total of 53,400 pure electric vehicles; the Audi brand sold a total of 24,200 vehicles; Porsche ranked third, with a total of 9,500 units sold; while Skoda delivered 8,800 vehicles and Seat delivered 2,200 vehicles.
In terms of specific models, the Volkswagen ID.4 delivered 30,300 units ranked first; followed by the Volkswagen ID.3 with 13,000 vehicles delivered. In addition, the Audi Q4e-tron and Audi e-tron delivered 10,700 and 10,300 vehicles respectively, and the Porsche Taycan delivered 9,500 vehicles.
Volkswagen Group said that the global demand for Volkswagen's pure electric vehicles is high, so Volkswagen has sufficient orders, and if there is no current supply bottleneck impact, Volkswagen's pure electric vehicle deliveries will have a significant increase.
However, the impact of a further escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still not fully predictable and therefore may still have a negative impact on the commercial activities of the Volkswagen Group. In addition, the worsening of the pandemic and supply bottlenecks are likely to continue to have a negative impact.
As for the recent complications, Hildegard Wortmann, a member of the Board of Directors of the Volkswagen Group, said: "We hope that over time, as well as the continuous improvement of the technology update and the promotion of in-vehicle semiconductors, will provide us with additional assistance." Now we will continue to firmly target electric vehicles at a full-year share of 7% to 8%. ”
Rising share expectations are a testament to Volkswagen's firm pace on the road to electrification. The confidence of Waterman's remarks not only comes from Volkswagen's attitude of electrification transformation, but also from the overall performance of Volkswagen's electric models last year.
According to the data, the global sales of Volkswagen electric vehicles in 2021 are good, ranking fourth in the global new energy vehicle sales list, with a total of 320,000 new energy vehicles sold. This data actually surpasses the "Wei Xiaoli" of the first camp of new domestic forces, such as Xiaopeng's annual sales of 98,700 vehicles, which has just entered the top 20 of the list.
On the specific models of the list, in addition to the explosive Tesla Model 3, Model Y and Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, it is followed by the Volkswagen ID.4, with annual sales of more than 120,000 vehicles, and another ID.3 in the same series also entered the top ten. The Volkswagen and ID. family occupy a place in the sales rankings, which further shows that Volkswagen's electrification transformation has begun to bear fruit.
The dilemma of the ID. series
However, if you only look at the Chinese market, Volkswagen's performance is a different story.
According to the data of the Association, new forces and independent brands have almost won the best-selling list. The Volkswagen ID. family, a big seller in Europe, has eclipsed china. Only 70,000 models of the full range of five models were sold in the Chinese market, which did not meet the expected target. Volkswagen's explanation for this is that production is affected by the shortage of chips, and it has set its planned sales volume at 140,000 units in 2022.
But the chip shortage is also a "fig leaf" for many companies to perform badly.
For Volkswagen, the lack of cores is not the whole reason for the average performance of its new energy models. Because the competition in the electrification track in the Chinese market is more fierce and the product selection is more diverse, the annual sales volume in 2021 exceeded 3.3 million units, accounting for half of the global sales, while many traditional car giants, including Volkswagen, are facing strong resistance from local brands in China.
"I am afraid of comparing goods", the competitiveness of the Volkswagen ID. series in the Chinese market is weaker than in other markets.
Some platforms have disassembled the Volkswagen ID.3 follow-up analysis report pointed out that the Volkswagen ID.3 has a higher cost in battery packs, but because the pursuit of speed is not high, it saves costs in terms of motors, voltages, controllers and so on. At the same time, the analysis report believes that volkswagen ID.3 has a gap with Tesla in terms of software, and does not reflect an advantage compared with the new forces of Chinese car manufacturing, which also confirms one of the reasons why its performance and competitiveness in the Chinese market are "not prominent".
After all, it is difficult to make a difference in electrification, and intelligence is the key to the next competition of car companies.
At present, Tesla, Xiaopeng, Weilai and other new forces mostly master the ability of software full-stack self-research, have been able to achieve the upgrade of vehicle software through OTAs, and actively promote automatic driving, but the traditional car companies' car machine systems leave consumers with an old and backward overall impression. From the PERSPECTIVE OF THE ID. SERIES, VOLKSWAGEN IS WORKING HARD, BUT VOLKSWAGEN IS FAR FROM DOING ENOUGH.
At the same time, before the launch of volkswagen ID.3, repeatedly exposed software vulnerabilities caused new cars to be delayed. Based on this, relevant people said that the reason for the software crisis may be that Volkswagen's software basic architecture research and development is too hasty, resulting in a large number of electronic control units are incompatible, and the fundamental reason behind it is that under the new software architecture, a large number of software development is still outsourced.
Volkswagen quickly solved the relevant problems, not only to ensure the successful listing of the Volkswagen ID.3, but also to quickly become a hot model that successfully sold in Europe and successfully introduced to China.
At the same time, although there have been positive and negative discussions, the arrival of the ID.3 and even the ID. series as a whole is absolutely significant for Volkswagen, and they are a sword that drives Volkswagen's electrification transformation.
After all, the automotive industry, which has accumulated over a century, has formed a set of traditional powertrains around the internal combustion engine. This tide of electrification has undoubtedly moved the bones. In order to take into account the basic plate of fuel vehicle profitability, most traditional car companies have to "oil to electricity" models.
However, such models are often regarded as the continuation of the corresponding fuel vehicle version, which does not meet the design needs of electric vehicles, and is mostly unremarkable after being launched on the market. Under the torture of the market, car giants must launch an exclusive pure electric platform, and the platform requires greater investment, which also means that it will bet more chips in the transformation and change.
Compared with BMW, Toyota and other established companies, Volkswagen is more aggressive in the electrification transformation, and more "willing to spend money", behind the ID. series is the exclusive platform of Volkswagen MEB pure electricity that costs tens of billions of dollars, which is the specific implementation of Volkswagen's specific implementation under the timetable for determining the electrification transformation target.
"New energy is the future", this is the consensus of the industry.
At present, under the dual pressure of market-driven and policy-oriented, traditional car giants have begun to actively or passively electrify the transformation of the road. In terms of the current market performance of new energy vehicles, although the performance of ID. series models in the Chinese market has not yet met expectations, compared with many established car companies, Volkswagen has taken a lead in the electrification track.
Starting with 70,000 vehicles, Volkswagen's transformation is resolute, and the future of the ID. series is bright.