Are there more divorced people?
Previously, the hot search topic "Civil Affairs Bureau started the divorce team lined up outside the door" caused widespread discussion among netizens, and many people left messages: There are more people who get married, and more people who are divorced. In response to these claims, many local civil affairs bureaus have refuted rumors, saying that there has been no significant increase or decrease in the number of people who have applied for divorce after the Spring Festival.
At the end of January, the relevant information circulated on the Internet that "a man in Fuyang, Anhui Province photographed that only two couples of newcomers were married by the Civil Affairs Bureau, and the divorce queue was lined up outside the door of the Civil Affairs Bureau", which was also a rumor after verification, and the public security organs also investigated and dealt with the publisher.
A few days ago, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, Changzhou, Anhui Bengbu and other places have released marriage and divorce data in 2022, which has also triggered a wave of attention and discussion. Against the backdrop of a gradual decline in the number of marriages and an increase in the number of divorces, every topic related to marriage and childbirth can attract general attention.
According to media reports, 30% of divorces are related to one party's addiction to mobile phones, and mobile payment may lead to the economic separation of the couple. In today's rapid economic development, there are many reasons for divorce, so what are the main factors? What are the new changes in the current divorce rate in the mainland, let's take a look at it with data.
The number of divorces on the mainland has declined in the past two years
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, 5.445 million couples registered for marriage in the mainland in the first three quarters of 2022, a decrease of 7.49% compared with 2021; At the same time, 1.643 million couples registered for divorce, an increase of 3.72% year-on-year.
In 2021, 7.643 million couples registered for marriage in the mainland, the data is lower than 8 million for the first time, and the data for the whole year of 2022 has not yet been released, but according to the data of previous years, the possibility of registering more than 8 million marriages this year is not high.
The decline in the number of marriages and the rise in divorce rate are not a new topic, and by combing through the divorce rate data since 2000, it is found that the divorce rate in the mainland has been climbing since 2003.
In 2003, the number of divorce registrations nationwide reached 1.33 million, with a divorce rate of 1.05‰, and since then, the divorce rate has continued to rise, reaching 2‰ in 2010; By 2019, the number of divorce registrations reached 4.701 million, and the national crude divorce rate rose to 3.4 per thousand, becoming the peak divorce in the past 20 years.
However, it can also be seen from the data that from 2019, the number of divorce registrations and the divorce rate in the mainland have begun to decline. In 2020, 4.339 million divorces were registered, down 362,000 from 2019, and the divorce rate dropped from 3.4‰ to 3.1‰, and continued to decline to 2‰ in 2021.
Some experts said that the decline in divorce data after 2019 is in line with the law of social development, and the decline in the divorce rate in the mainland after rising for 16 consecutive years indicates that it has reached a peak and begun to transition to a stable state. On the other hand, the setting of the cooling-off period for divorce also provides "soil" for the decline in the divorce rate to a certain extent.
The Civil Code of the People's Republic of China, which came into effect on January 1, 2021, has set up provisions on the cooling-off period system for divorce, and the Ministry of Civil Affairs has also adjusted the marriage registration procedure to add a cooling-off period to divorce procedures.
In 2021, the number of divorce registrations handled by the civil affairs department was 2.141 million, a decrease of 42.7% compared with 3.736 million in 2020.
In contrast, the number of registered marriages began to rise in 2002 and remained until 2013, when it began to decline, and even though the divorce rate has decreased in the past two years, the number of registered marriages and the marriage rate have not increased.
Unlike the divorce rate
The more economically developed the region, the lower the marriage rate
According to the divorce data of various provinces, Henan Province ranked first in the country with 152,000 registered divorces in 2021, followed by Sichuan Province and Guangdong Province with more than 140,000 pairs respectively, ranking second and third with 147,000 and 145,000 pairs.
However, to measure the stability of marriage in a region, it is unscientific to look only at the number of divorces, because although Henan has the largest number of divorces, Henan also has the largest number of registered marriages in the country, ranking first with Guangdong Province with 591,000 couples.
At the same time, Henan Province is also a province with a large population, according to the permanent population, the population of Henan Province in 2021 is second only to the two provinces with more than 100 million, Guangdong and Shandong.
So compared with the number of divorces, the divorce rate seems to be more scientific. If the divorce rate is measured by the ratio of the number of divorces in the region to the resident population, Tianjin has the highest divorce rate among all provinces in the country in 2021.
According to the data of the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the national crude divorce rate in 2021 is about 2‰, according to estimates, a total of five places in the country exceeded this level, of which Tianjin, Chongqing, Jilin, Heilongjiang and Beijing exceeded this level, of which Tianjin ranked first with the highest divorce rate of 2.55‰, becoming the region with the highest divorce rate in the country, followed by Chongqing 2.24‰ and Jilin 2.15‰.
In addition to Tianjin, the divorce rate in the northeast region is also at a high level, in addition to similar common reasons throughout the country, the high divorce rate in the northeast region is also related to the high proportion of only children, reduced marriage tolerance, and large net migration out mobility.
Nationwide, the Tibet Autonomous Region had the highest marriage rate of 9.29‰, followed by Qinghai and Guizhou at 7.47‰ and 7.63‰. Shanghai's marriage rate is only 3.62 per thousand, ranking first in all provinces. From this point of view, the distribution of marriage rates seems to be closely related to economic development, and the better the economic development, the lower the marriage rate.
Economic development and housing prices
There was a strong correlation with the divorce rate
At the end of January, a topic of "thirty percent divorce is related to one party's addiction to mobile phones" caused heated discussions, because a media survey showed that divorces caused by one party's addiction to mobile phones accounted for 30% of the total divorces.
Mobile phones are the product of modern social development, and for the divorce caused by addiction to playing mobile phones, netizens also have different opinions, most people admit that addicted to playing mobile phones do not care about the partner has a certain negative impact on marriage and family, but whether brushing mobile phones constitutes the root cause of divorce is still to be discussed.
Many experts and scholars have discussed the specific reasons for the high divorce rate before, and the popular law summarized is undoubtedly rapid economic development, social change, change of traditional concepts, and improvement of education level. So how much do these specific factors affect divorce rates?
A paper study from the School of Engineering Sciences at the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences showed that factors such as economic development and housing prices have a significant impact on divorce rates.
The study regressed statistical analysis of the divorce rate and economic development, Internet popularity, urbanization rate, social burden and female education level in 31 provinces in mainland China from 2011 to 2019, and found that for every 1% increase in per capita GDP, the divorce rate increased by 0.39%. Secondly, for every 1% increase in house prices, the divorce rate will increase by 0.22%. The total dependency ratio was negatively correlated with the divorce rate, and for every 1% increase in the total dependency ratio, the divorce rate decreased by 0.68%.
Similarly, a paper study from the School of Social Development of Xihua University showed that GDP per capita and housing prices were the two most significant factors affecting the divorce rate, although a slight difference was that the School of Social Development of Xihua University concluded that for every 1% increase in GDP per capita, the divorce rate increased by about 0.22%, and for every 1% increase in housing prices, the divorce rate increased by about 0.18%.
Economic development has many effects, including changes in social attitudes, women's economic and independent thinking, all of which affect the divorce rate to some extent. Excessively high housing prices can also easily cause huge family pressure, which in turn leads to marital conflict.
One factor worth paying attention to is the total dependency ratio. The total dependency ratio refers to the ratio of the number of non-working-age people to the number of working population, in other words, the more people over 65 and under 14, the lower the divorce rate. The reason may be that the heavier family burden makes the parties dare not divorce easily.
The increase in the divorce rate will have a negative impact on social development and stability, but economic development is inevitable, which requires us to pay attention to people's spiritual and cultural construction while doing a good job in economic development. In the previous research data, there is the impact of broadband interfaces on divorce rates. Reflected in social reality, the online world enriches people's spiritual life, but some unhealthy remarks will also have a negative impact on young men and women's views on marriage and childbearing.
On the other hand, the proportion of young people among the married population is also decreasing. According to the data released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the proportion of married people under the age of 30 in the mainland has been decreasing in recent years, from 57.8% in 2018 to 51.8% in 2021.
Previously, Changzhou, Yangzhou, Wuxi and other places have also released 2022 marriage and divorce data, the average age of marriage registration in Changzhou City is 31.05 years old, Yangzhou 30.27 years old, Wuxi 30.6 years old, Lianyungang 30.43 years old.
At present, the mainland has promulgated various laws to protect the principle of equality between men and women, escort marriage, and fully protect the rights of women of childbearing age in life and workplace.
Recently, the Beijing Municipal Human Resources and Social Security Bureau issued the "Beijing Human Resources and Social Security Administrative Punishment Discretionary Benchmark Table (Involving the Law on the Protection of Women's Rights and Interests)", which clearly states that employers who reduce the welfare of female companies and units due to marriage, childbirth, breastfeeding, etc., will directly face illegal acts, and clearly stipulate the discretionary standards and punishment years.
With this precedent, I believe that other places will follow up and introduce relevant laws to ensure the principle of fairness in the workplace for women, in order to promote the marriage and childbearing rate to a certain extent and reduce the divorce rate.
References: 1. Huang Xi, School of Engineering Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, "STATA Analysis of Influencing Factors of Divorce Rate in China", Journal of Wuyi University, Vol.41No.6, Jun.2022;
2. Zhang Chong, Chen Yuxiu, Zheng Qian, School of Social Development, Xihua University, "Trends, Influencing Factors and Countermeasures of China's Divorce Rate", Journal of Xihua University (Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition), Vol. 39, No. 2, March 2020;
3, Red Star News, "After the divorce team lined up at the door of the Civil Affairs Bureau? Many local civil affairs bureaus responded", https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1756721694850448394&wfr=spider&for=pc
Data Journalism Editor: Chen Hualuo
New Media Design: Miao Qihui
Proofreader: Li Lijun